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Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Cog » Sun 28 Apr 2019, 08:03:25

World Socialist Web Site? LOL Good one onlooker. You never disappoint.

The world is free to ignore our sanctions on Iran, if they choose not to trade with the USA. Don't you believe in freedom bro?
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 28 Apr 2019, 14:20:01

Exxon makes a refining loss on falling margins and rising fuel inventories.

https://www.reuters.com/article/exxon-m ... SL1N2280B7
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 29 Apr 2019, 03:51:33

Bloombergs commodity index is pointing towards falling prices.

Falling EROEI = Falling prices (deflation).

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D5TdxnMWwAI ... name=large
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 29 Apr 2019, 09:54:35

Falling EROEI = Falling prices (deflation)


With no new high ERoEI oil coming on online to keep the world average elevated it is falling rapidly. Deflation destroys the money supply so we will see more QE and declining interest rates. That will destroy the credit markets, which will destroy the currency. Catch 22.

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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby eclipse » Tue 30 Apr 2019, 15:57:12

It's interesting to note that one of the huge energy costs in nuclear power is all the mining and refining of uranium particles to get down to yellowcake and prepare that into fuel rods - and yet nuclear power still has a good enough EROEI. But this is where breeder reactors that 'eat' nuclear waste will shine. They'll get something like 60 to 90 times the energy out of the same amount of uranium, pyroprocessing the fission poisons out to concentrate the good stuff back into the reactor. While it takes a fair bit of energy to do this, it eliminates the truly enormous energy cost of mining and refining uranium. I've seen papers estimating the EROEI of breeder reactors in the high hundreds, close to a thousand! That's more than enough energy to charge all our EV's, crack seawater and extract CO2 from seawater into e-diesel (aka "Blue Crude"), and run our civilisation for 5 billion years. (The beauty of it is uranium from seawater can be economically extracted by low hanging dongles that passively soak up the particles, and yet continental drift + erosion keeps topping up the oceans for us! Little did I know that George W Bush was actually correct when he accidentally called nuclear power 'renewable!' :-D )
Dr James Hansen recommends breeder reactors that convert nuclear 'waste' into 1000 years of clean energy for America, and can charge all our light vehicles and generate "Blue Crude" for heavy vehicles.
https://eclipsenow.wordpress.com/recharge/
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby eclipse » Tue 30 Apr 2019, 16:05:40

StarvingLion wrote:Below is The Worldwide Headquarters of The "Federal" "Reserve" in 2025. These worthless sacks of shit will indeed discover The Technological Singularity by being squashed like a Bug from Dropping EROEI between 2020-2025. Bye Bye Vermin!

Image


You promise? Right, 2025 locked in. I remember back in 2004 that a whole bunch of peak oil doomers from Mike Stasse's (Australian) Running on Empty Australia Yahoo email group that we'd be in Mad Max by now, that I should get my family out of Sydney ASAP because it was all coming down this decade. Here we are in 2019. Still here.

In the meantime, almost every car major has huge plans for rolling out EV's in a big way and trying to take out Tesla. The marketplace bloodbath is going to be interesting, especially as they also move towards robot-taxis where one car can replace 10 to 20 family cars. Car-as-product is dying, and transport-as-service is taking off. The market share for cars could halve or quarter or fall even further! But we all win as electricity is cheaper per km than oil, and robot-EV Taxis will share out the costs of registration and servicing and purchasing these vehicles. May the best company win. I don't see any technological reason collapse is inevitable.

But don't feel too bad. America elected Trump. You can always hope he'll press the big red button mistaking it for the one that goes "Tweet".
Dr James Hansen recommends breeder reactors that convert nuclear 'waste' into 1000 years of clean energy for America, and can charge all our light vehicles and generate "Blue Crude" for heavy vehicles.
https://eclipsenow.wordpress.com/recharge/
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 01 May 2019, 04:07:29

You promise? Right, 2025 locked in. I remember back in 2004 that a whole bunch of peak oil doomers from Mike Stasse's (Australian) Running on Empty Australia Yahoo email group that we'd be in Mad Max by now, that I should get my family out of Sydney ASAP because it was all coming down this decade. Here we are in 2019. Still here.


What exactly does a 2004 prediction have to do with you being there in 2025? The "I was here yesterday; which means that I will be here tomorrow", theory is a little shaky. World GDP growth stopped at an ERoEI of 9.6:1, which occurred in 2012. It is now all about central banks printing counterfeit money which allows for the consumption of existing assets. Without growth there will soon be no debt based monetary system, which means no one will be building 3 billion EV to replace the existing 3 billion oil powered ICE. Going from point A, to point C, by skipping point B is an illusion.

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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 01 May 2019, 12:53:55

Another day another tedious boilerplate end is nigh pronouncement from short with the same tired graph and extraneous whitespace.

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HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby eclipse » Wed 01 May 2019, 22:08:04

shortonoil wrote:World GDP growth stopped at an ERoEI of 9.6:1, which occurred in 2012. It is now all about central banks printing counterfeit money which allows for the consumption of existing assets. Without growth there will soon be no debt based monetary system, which means no one will be building 3 billion EV to replace the existing 3 billion oil powered ICE. Going from point A, to point C, by skipping point B is an illusion.

Image


The global economy has kept growing. It's growing slower than it was, but as you know 3% on 3% on 3% on 3% soon adds up. This is growth as a percentage of the previous year, so the actual dollar amount of growth is probably growing, even though this graph doesn't show it because it is growth as a percent of the previous year, not a fixed dollar number. From a fixed dollar number, the growth would be represented as a more exponential function. Saying the world GDP has stopped growing is just plain factually incorrect. You are wrong.
Image

https://www.economist.com/economic-and- ... /world-gdp
Dr James Hansen recommends breeder reactors that convert nuclear 'waste' into 1000 years of clean energy for America, and can charge all our light vehicles and generate "Blue Crude" for heavy vehicles.
https://eclipsenow.wordpress.com/recharge/
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 02 May 2019, 11:00:36

The global economy has kept growing. It's growing slower than it was, but as you know 3% on 3% on 3% on 3% soon adds up.


The world economy is NOT growing at 3%. Since 2014 it has grown at 0.39%. That is essentially no growth, which means that there is not enough economic activity to service the existing $247 trillion in world debt. The end result will be a collapse it the present debt based monetary system. Some put that in 2024 when all sales of US government bonds will go to paying the interest on its existing debt. Growth is not going to reappear because the energy is not there to power it; the the world is now at Peak Oil. Hiding one's head in the sand will only mean that they will be sucking a lot of dirt in the very near future. It is kind of interesting how they put "world" right over the top of the recent data.

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby kublikhan » Thu 02 May 2019, 13:36:14

shortonoil wrote:The world economy is NOT growing at 3%. Since 2014 it has grown at 0.39%. That is essentially no growth, which means that there is not enough economic activity to service the existing $247 trillion in world debt. The end result will be a collapse it the present debt based monetary system. Some put that in 2024 when all sales of US government bonds will go to paying the interest on its existing debt. Growth is not going to reappear because the energy is not there to power it; the the world is now at Peak Oil. Hiding one's head in the sand will only mean that they will be sucking a lot of dirt in the very near future. It is kind of interesting how they put "world" right over the top of the recent data.

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD
Liar. What did I tell you about doing math yourself? You will make yourself look like an idiot. Go with what the world bank ACTUALLY SAYS:

Global growth is expected to slow to 2.9 percent in 2019.
http://www.worldbank.org/en/publication ... -prospects

Originally this was simply an error you made. However after this has been explained to you a dozen times at this point you are simply a liar. Just like with the refinery data. Just like with the bet you lost. Every time someone points out inconvenient truths you pretend they don't exist.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 02 May 2019, 14:53:12

Liar. What did I tell you about doing math yourself? You will make yourself look like an idiot. Go with what the world bank ACTUALLY SAYS:


http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD

2017 80.738
2014 79.18

80.738 - 79.18/4 = 0.39%

What an idiot you are. Can't even subtract two numbers and divide by a third. The world's IQ is going down, and we are fortanute to have you around to demonstrate just how much it has declined. Being called a liar by a brain dead zombie is not something to loose much sleep over.

The US Post Office is saying that it will be bankrupt by 2024. The US government will no longer be able to borrow enough to pay the interest on its debt by 2024. The world will have burned through 94% of its extractable petroleum reserves by 2024. Stock up on high blood pressure medicine, it is going to be worth a kings ransom by then. Make sure that it has a long self life, most of them turn very toxic after about a year. Lisinopril-HCTZ will last about 5 years if kept in a cool dry environment, and it works for most people.

Our entire civilization was built on oil, and that is soon coming to an end. It is based on technology that has grown so immensely complicated that when it begins to break down there will not be anyone around to fix it. 10% of US automobiles are already being run by a computer (ECM) that can not be replaced or repaired. Boeing is having difficulty building a plane that doesn't fly itself into the ground. Our GPS system that runs everything is daily drifting further and further out of sync. Prepare for an 1880's life style, because that is where we are fast headed.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 02 May 2019, 15:07:27

What an idiot you are. Can't even subtract two numbers and divide by a third. The world's IQ is going down, and we are fortanute to have you around to demonstrate just how much it has declined. Being called a liar by a brain dead zombie is not something to loose much sleep over.


Wow, talk about the pot calling the kettle black

Annual growth rate of World GDP from the site you linked to:

2014: 2.842
2015: 2.86
2016: 2.588
2017: 3.154

average rate of increase since 2014 = 2.861
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in constant US dollars global GDP:

2014 : 73.725 trillion
2017: 80.25 trillion

increase per annum = 2.175

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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby eclipse » Thu 02 May 2019, 19:22:38

shortonoil wrote:
Liar. What did I tell you about doing math yourself? You will make yourself look like an idiot. Go with what the world bank ACTUALLY SAYS:


http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD

2017 80.738
2014 79.18

80.738 - 79.18/4 = 0.39%

Ha ha ha, oh man, relax a little because this was so bad I was about to cite Poe's law!

The US Post Office is saying that it will be bankrupt by 2024.

Then they'll have to restructure.

The US government will no longer be able to borrow enough to pay the interest on its debt by 2024.

Then they'll have to change their economic policy.

The world will have burned through 94% of its extractable petroleum reserves by 2024.

Then we'll have an economic recession as other things become more economical — like EV's, like cycling, like emergency rezoning little shopping villages in the heart of suburbia to enable easier distribution, etc. If a really hard oil crisis hits, know that there are many, many things we can do, and do quickly. https://eclipsenow.wordpress.com/sudden-oil-crisis/ It also helps to remember that 60% of the world's population live within 50 miles of the coast, and so sailing goods around becomes an option. Sailing + cycling in rickshaws. It's crazy compared to today's lifestyle, but it works. I'm not saying any of this is going to happen — I've just been reading that by 2025 America might produce more oil than Saudi Arabia and Russia combined. Yet the peak oil classic "End of Suburbia" assured us that by 2011-2012 things were going to look really dicey.

Stock up on high blood pressure medicine, it is going to be worth a kings ransom by then. Make sure that it has a long self life, most of them turn very toxic after about a year. Lisinopril-HCTZ will last about 5 years if kept in a cool dry environment, and it works for most people.

Why, because some internet nutter who can't quote World Bank numbers correctly said to?

Our entire civilization was built on oil, and that is soon coming to an end.

You made a mistake, I'll correct it for you. "Our entire civilization was built on energy, and energy is NOT coming to an end. We'll adapt to nuclear and some renewables." There, that's better.

It is based on technology that has grown so immensely complicated that when it begins to break down there will not be anyone around to fix it.

Where are the people going? Harvesters and fertilisers and everything can be run on nuclear power + e-diesel. Quite economically in fact. And there are other options. Remember that, if electric, today's grid could charge a THIRD of all our vehicles if we just turn the power plants up high 24/7. It's actually 75% of our family cars and light trucks, the light vehicles. But the other vehicles would require new nuclear power plants and eventually, over time, run on e-diesel and / or recycled boron powder or even Tesla's new electric packs for long haul trucks! https://eclipsenow.wordpress.com/recharge/

10% of US automobiles are already being run by a computer (ECM) that can not be replaced or repaired.

Yeah, built in obsolescence is a bitch and why I like open-sourced computers and stuff like that. But why can't a computer chip factory run on nuclear power?

Boeing is having difficulty building a plane that doesn't fly itself into the ground.

Hmmm, exaggeration, much?

Our GPS system that runs everything is daily drifting further and further out of sync.

Rubbish.

Prepare for an 1880's life style, because that is where we are fast headed.

Hey, if you want to go live with the Amish, that's fine by me. I don't see any reason the rest of us have to.

Dude, even if Trump nuked us back to the stone age we wouldn't stay there very long. We'd dig up old libraries, get a little local renewable energy started to run our little, local workshop on sunny or windy days, we'd cycle everywhere, gradually rebuild, and then when we finally got big enough (in our very New Urbanist new society) we'd build more nuclear power and really take off again! This physicist and futurist and cultural commentator Isaac Arthur thinks it might only take 2 generations. Grab a coffee and take a break and watch this for half an hour. You might get hooked! :lol:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QWmEgu1iP_E
Dr James Hansen recommends breeder reactors that convert nuclear 'waste' into 1000 years of clean energy for America, and can charge all our light vehicles and generate "Blue Crude" for heavy vehicles.
https://eclipsenow.wordpress.com/recharge/
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Cog » Thu 02 May 2019, 20:18:08

GPS positional accuracy has increased yearly since the first Satellite was launched. We build roads and bridges using survey grade GPS, something unheard of just 15 years ago.

Shorty you shouldn't flounder about on the board with you ill-informed opinions, when there are subject matter experts that inhabit this place.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 03 May 2019, 11:25:48

GPS positional accuracy has increased yearly since the first Satellite was launched. We build roads and bridges using survey grade GPS, something unheard of just 15 years ago.


As usual this idiot doesn't have a clue as to what is going on. Where did you read that, CNN, or Fox? The last three replacement satellites that where being sent up to replace existing and deteriorating systems blew up on the launch pad. The weakening of the Earth's magnetic field is making calibration an increasing difficult operation. The Earth's magnetic north pole is moving south by over 50 miles a year, and the magnetic field strength is falling by several percent per year. Peak Oil is not our only bad news. There is no law that bad news has to show up one item at a time. Then there is the little problem with an insurmountable debt burden.

https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio ... ic_Bubbles
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Fri 03 May 2019, 12:09:56

shortonoil wrote:
GPS positional accuracy has increased yearly since the first Satellite was launched. We build roads and bridges using survey grade GPS, something unheard of just 15 years ago.


As usual this idiot doesn't have a clue as to what is going on. Where did you read that, CNN, or Fox? The last three replacement satellites that where being sent up to replace existing and deteriorating systems blew up on the launch pad. The weakening of the Earth's magnetic field is making calibration an increasing difficult operation. The Earth's magnetic north pole is moving south by over 50 miles a year, and the magnetic field strength is falling by several percent per year. Peak Oil is not our only bad news. There is no law that bad news has to show up one item at a time. Then there is the little problem with an insurmountable debt burden.

https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio ... ic_Bubbles


Shorty, I don't believe we have exchanged comments before, but I am getting tied of your BS. I also worked in the USCG when GPS was implemented, and used it to calibrate our LORAN-C transmissions.
The theoretical accuracy of non-augmented GPS is on the close order of two meters due to the variations in EMF propagation in the ionoshpere. The most common way of increasing GPS accuracy is via WAAS or Wide Area Augmentation System. Basicly that works by having a receiver in a position known with high accuracy (probably a surveyed position) which takes a GPS fix, compares it with the known position, and broadcasts the offset reading to the surrounding area. This typically reduces the error to less than one foot, and 3-5 inches close to the WAAS station. Nor is the WAAS technology expensive, both the tablet I am typing on and the $150 GPS in my Jeep contain GPS receiver chips which are WAAS enabled.

Granted, there are not WAAS stations everywhere. They are approximately as common as cellular services and tend to exist in the same areas. In the booneys and without WAAS you may have to settle for 2 meter accuracy.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Yoshua » Fri 03 May 2019, 13:08:09

Warren Buffet doesn't understand how inflation can be so low with today's fiscal and monetary policies.

Lagarde said that inflation is mysteriously low.

Well...they haven't heard about the Energy Halfway Point?

Oil prices have been rising this year. Usually rising oil prices leads to rising inflation. But not this time.

What if rising oil prices lead to deflation in commodity prices as the global economy slows down in response to rising oil prices?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D5j3K29WkAA ... ame=medium
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 07 May 2019, 15:24:20

https://srsroccoreport.com/global-econo ... -declines/

Global Economic Growth In Serious Trouble When U.S. Shale Oil Peaks & Declines
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 08 May 2019, 10:32:55

onlooker wrote:https://srsroccoreport.com/global-economic-growth-in-serious-trouble-when-u-s-shale-oil-peaks-declines/

Global Economic Growth In Serious Trouble When U.S. Shale Oil Peaks & Declines


And Steve has learned something new about the oil and gas business since the last 6 years of bad predictions on the topic, and that what he has learned is enough for him to make a correct claim? Finally?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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