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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 26 Apr 2019, 16:46:42

asg70 wrote:
Armageddon wrote:You cornies remind me of a guy jumping off a 100 story building and halfway down he says, see, this isn’t so bad


I bet you that quote was used all the way back in 2008 too. How long is long enough to justify getting on with your life rather than hoarding gold, guns, and ammo?




Can you post the amount of trillions it took to stop the 2008 crash?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 26 Apr 2019, 17:09:45

Nearly 102 Million Americans Do Not Have A Job Right Now – Worse Than At Any Point During The Last Recession
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 26 Apr 2019, 17:13:10

CORRECTED: Surprising"real" GDP growth rate of 3.18% is a contrived illusion. BEA used a UNIQUE inflation deflator of 0.64%! More commonly used deflator BLS CPI-U inflation rate 2.27%. If BLS deflator used, GDP growth rate 1.56% (Half BEA #) (Part 1 of 3 sobering observations...


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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 26 Apr 2019, 17:18:12

This was a low-quality GDP report. All one-offs - lower imports, higher inventories & Pentagon spending. Real final private sales a puny 1.3%. Removing more lipstick from this pig shows cyclically-adjusted GDP contracting at a 2% annual rate; deepest decline in nearly a decade .

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People are smelling the BS with this report.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 26 Apr 2019, 18:52:05

This was a low-quality GDP report. All one-offs - lower imports, higher inventories & Pentagon spending. Real final private sales a puny 1.3%. Removing more lipstick from this pig shows cyclically-adjusted GDP contracting at a 2% annual rate; deepest decline in nearly a decade .


Well, it is possible to spin a story any way you want in order to justify your doom scenario. Unfortunately, the facts are GDP increased, doom postponed. Here is the quarterly growth rate for GDP in the US.

Image

Just reeks of disaster :roll:
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 26 Apr 2019, 20:23:40

Intel's revenue growth turns negative for the first time since


Impossible!! We are booming I tell ya
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby dirtyharry » Sat 27 Apr 2019, 01:23:58

rockdoc123 wrote:
This was a low-quality GDP report. All one-offs - lower imports, higher inventories & Pentagon spending. Real final private sales a puny 1.3%. Removing more lipstick from this pig shows cyclically-adjusted GDP contracting at a 2% annual rate; deepest decline in nearly a decade .


Well, it is possible to spin a story any way you want in order to justify your doom scenario. Unfortunately, the facts are GDP increased, doom postponed. Here is the quarterly growth rate for GDP in the US.

Image

Just reeks of disaster :roll:


Correct rockdoc .Doom postponed but not eliminated . Enjoy the good time ponzi while it lasts .
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Cog » Sat 27 Apr 2019, 05:51:35

Yesterday was good to me.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby dirtyharry » Sat 27 Apr 2019, 05:52:47

Cog wrote:Yesterday was good to me.

And also for me . :-D
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 27 Apr 2019, 07:13:15

This was a low-quality GDP report. All one-offs - lower imports, higher inventories & Pentagon spending. Real final private sales a puny 1.3%. Removing more lipstick from this pig shows cyclically-adjusted GDP contracting at a 2% annual rate; deepest decline in nearly a decade.


Most of the reported US 3.2% increase occurred because of non durable inventory growth. As of six months ago the Philly Fed was projecting a 1st quarter US growth rate of 0.5%. The inventory increases are a one time charges that will not be repeated because it occurred as a result of companies front running tariff changes. Companies were advance buying to avoid the upcoming tariffs.

The US is still maintaining because it is the recipient of most of the world's capital outflows. World growth is very slow (0.39% between 2014 and 2017) and funds are flowing to US dollars because they offer a higher risk/return than any other currency. With the world now at Peak, beyond the energy have way point, and per unit energy delivery falling by 4% per year the world's economy will continue to contract at somewhere between 0.75 and 2.2% per year into the indefinite future. Massive monetary/ financial crisis can be expected to be upcoming. Kyle Bass, the hedge fund, is betting $1 billion that a dollar shortage in China will be collapsing Hong Kong banks within a year. Hong Kong is the source of most of Main Land China's dollar requirements, which without they have very little export market. Most of the world will not accept Yuan as a replacement for dollars. Also, much of China's $40 trillion in debt is denominated in dollars.

Although over 3 mb/d (3.75% of C&C) of world production has been shut-in over the last year oil prices are still going down. The 5% drop over the last few days is indicative of rapidly falling demand. World economies are failing as a result of energy starvation. Once the FED begins to again cut rates to support a faltering economy US bank failures will soon begin. The Mega banks $1000 trillion in derivatives book will be blowing up. Share prices for the Bank of Sealy will be exploding.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 27 Apr 2019, 09:37:32

Although over 3 mb/d (3.75% of C&C) of world production has been shut-in over the last year oil prices are still going down. The 5% drop over the last few days is indicative of rapidly falling demand.


Bollocks. It is an oversupply issue or at least worries about oversupply. Demand continues to gradually increase year on year.

here is a range of comments from the oil and gas research space :

Despite the sharp drop in the number of active oil rigs in the United States, US crude oil production is still at near all-time highs, and for week ending April 19, US oil production stood at 12.2 million barrels, resuming its previous all-time high first reached for week ending March 29
.

The Permian continues to add production, even as drilling activity slows down in Texas and elsewhere. According to the EIA, the Permian could add another 42,000 barrels per day in May, with output now well above 4 million barrels per day (mb/d). That comes even as the rig count has declined sharply from fourth quarter highs last year


Oil prices dipped on Friday as markets brace themselves for more OPEC supply following Trump’s decision not to extend the Iran sanctions waivers
.

 
The price cratering came after President Donald Trump announced he had “called up” OPEC to bring the price of gasoline down


U.S. West Texas Intermediate and international-benchmark Brent crude oil futures are trading lower on Friday amid speculation that OPEC and its allies will soon raise production to offset a decline in exports from Iran following a move by the United States earlier in the week to halt all exports from the rogue nation.


OPEC and its allies including Russia have been tightening supply since January 1. This has been the primary driver of the more than four month rally. Supply tightened further when the U.S. imposed sanctions against Venezuela.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 27 Apr 2019, 20:17:15

This was a low-quality GDP report. All one-offs - lower imports, higher inventories & Pentagon spending. Real final private sales a puny 1.3%. Removing more lipstick from this pig shows cyclically-adjusted GDP contracting at a 2% annual rate; deepest decline in nearly a decade .


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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 27 Apr 2019, 20:25:47

World trade volumes fall fastest in a decade. Calculations by Bloomberg based on the trade monitor of CPB showing a 1.9% decline in the 3mths through Feb compared w/ previous 3mths. That marks the steepest drop since the period through May2009.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sat 27 Apr 2019, 22:29:35

A buying opportunity will result if the Doomies succeed in promoting panic. Everybody prepare to guess where the bottom is.

And for (insert favorite diety name here)'s sake, stop trying to defuse the silliness. Silliness, after all, causes the market to swing in both directions.
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Resistance is Futile, YOU will be Assimilated.

Warning: Messages timestamped before April 1, 2016, 06:00 PST were posted by the unmodified human KaiserJeep 1.0
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 28 Apr 2019, 03:28:30

The WTI was saved before close right on the rising trend line. Rising wedges usually breaks down at some point though.

Weekly chart: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D5L_ohKWkAc ... ame=medium
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby marmico » Sun 28 Apr 2019, 04:34:04

Removing more lipstick from this pig shows cyclically-adjusted GDP contracting at a 2% annual rate; deepest decline in nearly a decade .


Your twitter feed is bullshit. For a second I thought you were relying on the bloviating blathering bullshit from the ETP Bozo and his Side Car Clowns.

Q12019 real private sales to domestic purchasers @ 1.3% uptick is weak. (Table 1, line 32).

http://www.bea.gov/system/files/2019-04/gdp1q19_adv.pdf

Q12019 corporate profits are upticking as the results are posted. A year on year earnings loss may be avoided.

https://insight.factset.com/will-sp-500 ... in-q1-2019
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Cog » Sun 28 Apr 2019, 08:09:37

Doomers can't even cherry pick correct data. LOL
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 28 Apr 2019, 08:54:03

Cog wrote:Doomers can't even cherry pick correct data. LOL



Cornies are too blind to understand them
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 28 Apr 2019, 13:06:27

Armageddon wrote:
Cog wrote:Doomers can't even cherry pick correct data. LOL



Cornies are too blind to understand them

That's such a credible claim, coming from you. :roll:

Calling moderates who try to look at ALL the data, good and bad, in perspective "cornies" is just another sign of how "objective" you are about this subject. /s
Last edited by Outcast_Searcher on Sun 28 Apr 2019, 13:11:09, edited 1 time in total.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 28 Apr 2019, 13:08:53

Yoshua wrote:The WTI was saved before close right on the rising trend line. Rising wedges usually breaks down at some point though.

Weekly chart: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D5L_ohKWkAc ... ame=medium

So more random short term technical chart reading eh? Even though, as pointed out last time re your big "breakdown" below $60 call, proven wrong within a day, as I pointed out?

You remind me of Armageddon and Short, re your complete lack of learning or ability to absorb any data which conflicts with your religion of short term financial doom.

But never fear -- even a broken clock is occasionally right.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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