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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 25 Apr 2019, 18:21:03

Here’s what’s coming prior to 2020 election.

- 0% interest rates
- QE 4 (infinity)
- massive stimulus packages

There’s no way the markets crash prior to 2020 unless there’s some type of event (false flag, war etc)

Trump will blow this bubble bigger than the anyone can imagine.

Got gold and silver? You better have
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Cog » Fri 26 Apr 2019, 02:22:13

So now the market isn't going to crash? How disappointing that the doomers have given up on the market crash. I was so looking forward to picking up some stocks at historical lows.

0% interest rates and QE4 is pure fantasy. Fed hasn't signaled anything like that. As to massive stimulus packages, that would depend on what you mean by that. We are running annual deficits already and that hasn't changed for decades.

Gold and silver bugs are always eternally optimistic that metals are the way to fortune, but historic comparisons to the S&P 500 have proven them wrong.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 26 Apr 2019, 07:26:40

Armageddon wrote:Trump will blow this bubble bigger than the anyone can imagine.


And how does that work, exactly? Trump has an economic infinity gauntlet? I mean, you spend all this time spamming this thread with datapoints (mostly from Zerohedge) suggesting the end is nigh and THEN you throw it all away by suggesting Trump has magical POTUS powers that can insure the center holds until after the election? Sense...it makes none.

Actually, it does...in a way. I totally get the doomer mentality. Everyone is making the wrong decision, from the powers that be all the way down to the "sheeple". Doomers are THE ultimate backseat drivers. Whatever is going on in the world, someone, somewhere, is "doing it wrong" and doomers will be sure to point it out.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Cog » Fri 26 Apr 2019, 09:05:42

1st quarter GDP 2019 up sharply from 4th quarter 2018. Sorry doomers, not much for you here. I guess consumers don't read this thread.

https://www.npr.org/2019/04/26/71715876 ... g-spending

The Commerce Department says the U.S. economy picked up steam in the first three months of the year, after a rocky finish to 2018.

Gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 3.2% in the first quarter, up from 2.2% at the end of last year. That's a significant turnaround from six weeks ago, when many analysts expected a slump in GDP growth to just 2% or less.

A pickup in consumer spending contributed to the improved outlook. Retailers enjoyed strong sales gains in March after a lackluster February.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 26 Apr 2019, 10:29:51

1st quarter GDP 2019 up sharply from 4th quarter 2018. Sorry doomers, not much for you here. I guess consumers don't read this thread.


highlights from the report:

• Exports rose by 3.7%, imports decreased by 3.7%
• Investments in intellectual property products increased by 8.6%
• Disposable personal income increased by 3% versus price increases of 1.3% for food and energy
• Overall prices increased by 0.8% in first quarter

I seem to remember Armageddon claiming the US would be in full on recession in the first quarter with negative GDP by March? How did that work out? :roll:

In true broken clock fashion I expect to hear "OH, but things are getting worse so it will now be the second quarter!" :roll:
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 26 Apr 2019, 11:28:25

COLUMN-U.S. economy loses momentum despite impressive headline growth: Reuters Consumer spending grew 1.2% down from 2.5% previous Q & recent high of 3.8% in Q2 ‘18. Business investment grew 2.7%, down from 5.4% previous Q & recent high of 11.5% in 2018 Q1
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 26 Apr 2019, 11:46:10

COLUMN-U.S. economy loses momentum despite impressive headline growth: Reuters Consumer spending grew 1.2% down from 2.5% previous Q & recent high of 3.8% in Q2 ‘18. Business investment grew 2.7%, down from 5.4% previous Q & recent high of 11.5% in 2018 Q1


It is increasing, growing, getting bigger as opposed to being negative or declining or getting smaller.

I would hate to have to count the number of times doomers equate slowing with negative growth, the two aren't the same, not even close.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 26 Apr 2019, 11:59:55

Global trade growth dips negative yoy. Weakest reading in a decade
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 26 Apr 2019, 12:02:08

BOOM? US Economy expanded at 3.2% pace in Q1, way faster than 2.3% expected. Inventories, Trade boosts US GDP by most since 2013. Government spending rose 2.4%
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 26 Apr 2019, 12:29:10

Armageddon wrote:BOOM? US Economy expanded at 3.2% pace in Q1, way faster than 2.3% expected. Inventories, Trade boosts US GDP by most since 2013. Government spending rose 2.4%

You, who keep improperly claiming doom, are the one who is wrong. Moving the target dates doesn't make you right. Claiming slower growth is doom doesn't make you right. Calling people names who disagree with you childish names doesn't make you right. Ignoring positive data and only focusing on any negative stat you can find in an attempt to bolster your doom fantasy doesn't make you right.

In the real world, serious economists like Fed members are talking about steady or slowly rising interest rates. After the dip in 4Q and the slide in stock prices, etc, it's just been goalpost moving and being wrong wrong wrong for you, re fast approaching economic doom. No serious economist is talking about hyper-inflation. (Just you and doomer blogs who won't give up on that 10 year old wrong call).

It doesn't have to be a boom to be growth. But faster growth than expected isn't REMOTELY doom, and even you should be able to understand that, even if you're too intellectually dishonest to admit it.

Now when I look at page one of the CNBC summary of the economy under business, the overall tone of the news stories is positive, re the economy.

https://www.cnbc.com/economy/

But all doom, all the time, because that's what you wish for, right? :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Yoshua » Fri 26 Apr 2019, 12:46:33

The WTI is tanking again and has broken the support line to the down side. If the WTI continues to fall, then it made another lower high, this time at USD 66.

In November - December 2018 when the WTI crashed, the WTI took down the stock market as well.

Oil prices are falling despite sanctions on Iran and Venezuela. The global slowdown seems to be the cause of falling oil prices.

The U.S seems to be somewhat able to isolate it self from the global downturn...but for how long?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 26 Apr 2019, 12:49:43

You cornies remind me of a guy jumping off a 100 story building and halfway down he says, see, this isn’t so bad
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby dirtyharry » Fri 26 Apr 2019, 12:59:14

OK . The Ponzi is good as it lasts . Understand the reason behind this rise . Fudging figures as usual . No ,this is not ZH .
https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economic ... rnK_IQiWA/
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 26 Apr 2019, 13:18:31

In November - December 2018 when the WTI crashed, the WTI took down the stock market as well.


it was the other way around. The dog is wagging its tail, not the other way around

One week after crude futures struck their highs, two-thirds of the stocks in the S&P 500 plunged into correction territory.

That kicked off a broad market rout that saw investors shed risk assets, including crude futures. Oil and stocks do not always move in tandem, but the assets were closely correlated during last month’s sell-off.

Right around the same time that investors started dumping stocks and commodities, concerns about faltering oil demand sharpened.


https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/13/why-oil-prices-tumbled-from-four-year-highs-into-a-bear-market.html
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 26 Apr 2019, 13:22:21

I wouldn’t get your panties too wet cornies


Fab Q1 GDP print (3.2pc)...till you look under the hood and kick the tires. Inventory buildup will have to be unwound (which will drag on growth), imports were weak (everyone front ran the tariffs last year) and defence spending was strong (but rest of govt spending weak).
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Yoshua » Fri 26 Apr 2019, 14:57:06

It might have been the other way around.

Rising oil prices caused a global slowdown, which led to a stock market sell off, which led to to a oil price crash...
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 26 Apr 2019, 15:29:30

'The heart of the real economy — private-sector consumption and investment — slowed sharply in the first quarter to a 1.3% annual rate, the slowest in nearly six years. Spending on durable goods plunged 5.3%, the worst since 2009.' marketwatch.com/story/behind
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 26 Apr 2019, 15:37:37

and yet GDP wasn't negative and we weren't in a full blown recession. :roll:
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 26 Apr 2019, 15:44:55

Armageddon wrote:You cornies remind me of a guy jumping off a 100 story building and halfway down he says, see, this isn’t so bad


I bet you that quote was used all the way back in 2008 too. How long is long enough to justify getting on with your life rather than hoarding gold, guns, and ammo?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 26 Apr 2019, 15:47:48

Yoshua wrote:Rising oil prices caused a global slowdown


One day hopefully peakers realize that other factors can drive the economy besides oil price fluctuations.
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