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Arctic sea ice 2019

Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 21 Apr 2019, 17:14:18

dohboi wrote:World Economic Forum: The Arctic Has Entered an ‘Unprecedented State,’ Researchers Warn

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/04/ ... hers-warn/

If the economic people are worried, it is time for everyone to worry :-D
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 21 Apr 2019, 17:14:44

WEF - World Economic Forum - Davos

This is about as corporate/conservative/globalization/neoliberal economic as you can get.

Strong words.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 21 Apr 2019, 17:20:42

Dohboi,

I gloss the annual WEF Risk Analysis which has been upping climate change for some time. If this is very interesting to see them take such a conspicuous stance. The WEF is fairly representative of the 0.1% elite.

I see this as good news, not the changes, the awareness.

I’d like to see Trumps response.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 22 Apr 2019, 10:11:15

I think these folks are a bit smarter and more reality based than Trump. I don't think data are going to sway Trump and his ilk. His is a political position--what his base accepts, or has been convinced to accept, as reality. But I don't want to drag yet another thread into purely political speculation.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby dissident » Mon 22 Apr 2019, 11:21:05

Newfie wrote:WEF - World Economic Forum - Davos

This is about as corporate/conservative/globalization/neoliberal economic as you can get.

Strong words.


They are interested in the opening of oil and gas extraction prospects. So it is not as pro-anthropogenic-warming as it looks.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 23 Apr 2019, 09:28:08

Melting permafrost in Arctic will have $70tn climate impact - study

Study shows how destabilised natural systems will worsen man-made problem


https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... pact-study

The release of methane and carbon dioxide from thawing permafrost will accelerate global warming and add up to $70tn (£54tn) to the world’s climate bill, according to the most advanced study yet of the economic consequences of a melting Arctic.

If nations fail to improve on their current Paris agreement commitments, this feedback mechanism combined with a loss of heat-deflecting white ice will cause a near 5% amplification of global warming and its associated costs, says the paper, which was published on Tuesday in Nature Communications.

The authors say their study is the first to calculate the economic impact of permafrost melt and reduced albedo – a measure of how much light that hits a surface is reflected without being absorbed – based on the most advanced computer models of what is likely to happen in the Arctic as temperatures rise. It shows how destabilised natural systems will worsen the problem caused by man-made emissions, making it more difficult and expensive to solve.

They assessed stocks of CO2 and methane trapped in the permafrost by using samples taken from a depth of three metres at multiple points across the Arctic. These were run through the world’s most advanced climate simulation software in the US and at the UK Met Office to predict how much gas will be released at different levels of warming. Even with supercomputers, the number crunching took weeks because the vast geography and complex climate interactions of the Arctic throw up multiple variables. The researchers then applied previous economic impact models to assess the likely costs.

Permafrost melt is the main concern. Greenhouse gases, which have been frozen below the soil for centuries, have already begun to escape at the current level of 1 degrees Celsius of global heating. So far the impact is small. Ten gigatonnes of CO2 have been released from the ice but this source of emissions will grow rapidly once temperatures rise beyond 1.5C.

On the current trajectory of at least 3C of warming by the end of the century, melting permafrost is expected to discharge 280 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide and 3 gigatonnes of methane, which has a climate effect that is 10 to 20 times stronger than CO2.

This would increase the global cost of destruction, adaptation and emissions reduction by $70tn between now and 2300. This is 10 times higher than the projected benefits from a melting Arctic, such as easier navigation for ships and access to minerals, says the paper.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby GoghGoner » Mon 29 Apr 2019, 09:19:07

Well, it looks like global sea ice for both extent and area is now at an all-time load for this time of year. Just a decade ago, climate denialists/skeptics were hanging their hats on these numbers.

https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/global-sea-ice
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 04 May 2019, 05:12:23

just 1.2 percent of ice in the Arctic Ocean is older than four years.

Just 35 years ago, ice that was four years old or older made up nearly a third of all Arctic sea ice.

https://earther.gizmodo.com/the-last-of ... 1834510753
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby evilgenius » Sun 05 May 2019, 12:11:26

At times like these I hear the voice of Yule Brenner in my head, telling Charlton Heston that there was a mountain somewhere that spewed red mud into the Nile, making the river seem to turn to blood. By this I mean that the steepness of the curve I mentioned previously was ameliorated by a flattening out of it. The ice level is no longer in danger of the sort of figures it may have been had the previous steepness kept up. It is still below any year over the past five or so years, except for 2016, for this time of year, though. I suppose this is due to winds moving the ice around? It's hard to imagine new ice developing at such a rate as to cause that amelioration this time of year, but I guess that is possible. So you can look at the current picture and maintain a certain cynicism concerning climate change, just like Yule. I wonder how long that will keep up?
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby clif » Tue 07 May 2019, 02:06:41

Post by GoghGoner » Mon Apr 29, 2019 10:19 am
Well, it looks like global sea ice for both extent and area is now at an all-time load for this time of year. Just a decade ago, climate denialists/skeptics were hanging their hats on these numbers.


I don't know if they are aware of this, but our sea ice volume high's this year are where the lows were in 2008;

Not a good sign if you think global sea ice is important ......
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby evilgenius » Tue 14 May 2019, 11:41:53

Looking at the graph it appears that sea ice extent is now on a path to approximate what happened in 2018. The thing I'm wondering about is whether the many opening holes in sea ice concentration will cause the sort of historical increased steepness in the graph, depicting a more rapid loss of sea ice extent, on, or about, July 1, or if that may begin sooner. Because the current rate of decline would bring the graph closer to the historical norm if that doesn't happen until July 1 there is potential for relief this year, in that the low for the year may not be as bad as people have feared. On the other hand, if it begins that more rapid decline in mid June all bets are off. I don't have any idea what it will do, and am not making any predictions. I don't know what the historic sea ice concentration has looked like at this time of year, nor whether the overall picture matters as much as some regional distributions. I just see some possibilities looking at the graph and the depictions.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 15 May 2019, 09:16:30

Image
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby evilgenius » Thu 30 May 2019, 10:56:12

When I look at sea ice concentration this year it looks like there will be a rapid decline in extent as the sun warms things up. You can see, from historical graphs, that a rapid decline occurs naturally sometime around July 1st each year. In 2012, the current record year, that decline began close on the heels of the first third of June. One assumes the rate of that decline was kept up by the same forces that compel the ice to retreat so quickly around July 1st, only earlier. I don't know anything about the history of that year, so I don't know if there was a storm, or some other natural thing, involved that sped things up. This year, there are huge gaps in sea ice cover already, close to the beginning of June. I've looked at the sea ice on EOSDIS and they do look large, but are vulnerable, nonetheless, to the movement of ice currently part of the larger pack surrounding them. Winds could move that ice, covering the open holes rather than allowing them to absorb the sun's heat. It looks like, from EOSDIS previous data compared at something close to monthly intervals that this is what's happened in a few prior years. Last year looked like it was going to go gangbusters about right now, but the holes were covered enough to slow what looked like a much more rapid melt a month or so later. 2016 may have done the same. The ice does look different this year to last on the satellite images, though. It looks thinner. In those prior years, it looked much more blocky. Now, it appears to be made out of smaller pieces in the regions surrounding the open water. As in prior years, you can see weakness curving back from certain places where it looks like whole swathes of the pack are going to break up. They could, and cover the open water, or melt in it. I think the next third of June is set for a big tell. At any rate, the 2012 line is looming, and the rate of decline this year looks to cross it soon, passing into less than record territory. Notwithstanding what's going on with volume, this year's melt would have to speed up, speeding up the loss of sea ice extent, in order to change that.

EOSDIShttps://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2019-05-30-T00%3A00%3A00Z&z=3&v=-7864320,-4116480,7864320,4116480
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby evilgenius » Tue 04 Jun 2019, 10:54:45

Today marks the third straight day of more rapid ice loss. 2019 is still tracking close to 2018, but now shows potential to stay in front of the 2012 record. The rate over the last three days is steep enough. I say potential because when you look at other years you can see how easily the rate can flatten out. Those prior flattenings don't come with any reason why, only that it can happen. I just spent a few minutes looking at the satellite image provided by NASA, however, and there is a great deal of broken up ice ready to head into the now open waters all around the Arctic. Too much of it could go all at once, and cool things off. What it looks like, though, is that the situation may be headed for a stage this time of year we haven't seen yet.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby GoghGoner » Tue 04 Jun 2019, 11:16:11

Yeah, I have been fascinated by the broken ice above Greenland and the Canadian islands. That used to be completely packed and immobile. The whole Arctic is in splintered and flowing around. Looks like we will be at a record low extent when summer solstice arrives.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 04 Jun 2019, 17:56:49

That mental picture you have of 'packed and immobile' is mostly an illusion. In reality, monitor buoys deployed over the last several decades have always shown that the vast bulk of the ice cap spins with the sea and air currents. It doesn't move quickly, but it is very far from immobile. In fact that motion was a key factor in early SSBN deployments as it opened up leads of clear water with a thin skim of ice cover at relatively frequent intervals allowing even the earliest missile subs to break through for launching operations. Later generations of subs are ice hardened and can break through several meters, but the navy has been tracking these clear locations since the 1950's. That record was declassified by the Clinton Administration in the mid 1990's. Those records have been invaluable giving researchers a detailed ice volume record extending a generation earlier than the satellite record begins in 1978.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby evilgenius » Tue 11 Jun 2019, 10:54:33

The NASA images are scary. They depict open water developing all around the Arctic Ocean. Ice is breaking up all along the northern edge of the Canadian Archipelago. Yesterday, I believe the situation entered record low sea ice extent for this time of year, barely. Looking at the graph, the rate of ice loss appears as if this year will dovetail with 2012 rather than stay ahead of it. The amount of open water, though, and what the sun's presence will do heating that up, leaves the whole thing up for wonder as to how much ice loss there will be this year. Will that open water cause something no one expected to happen this year?
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 11 Jun 2019, 17:45:03

This has been a banner year for bergs in Newfoundland. We haven’t seen many but other folks are making a regular cottage industry of taking some stunning pictures. Thought I would post one I found most interesting. It has since broken up, just a moment in time.

D9354715-69A7-4C65-8DD6-DECBC99D555F.jpeg



And this one is not far from our place.

BD340E9E-FD55-4118-B81A-1F3DC495AABF.jpeg



https://m.facebook.com/groups/Newfoundl ... view=group
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 11 Jun 2019, 18:25:39

can you imagine how exotic these photos will one day appear to future generations when the arctic is ice free. Children will look at these giant icebergs with the same imagination that they look at images of dinosaurs today.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby careinke » Wed 12 Jun 2019, 01:48:48

Ibon wrote:can you imagine how exotic these photos will one day appear to future generations when the arctic is ice free. Children will look at these giant icebergs with the same imagination that they look at images of dinosaurs today.


IF there are future generations......
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