An Italian construction company just sold its lease to develop a wind farm in waters off the New Jersey coast for $215 million, about 21,000 percent more than it paid only three years ago.
Toto Holding SpA’s U.S. Wind unit, which paid about $1 million for the lease off Atlantic City in 2015, resold it to Electricite de France SA, which plans to develop the site though a joint venture with Royal Dutch Shell Plc.
Cheap, safe 100% renewable energy possible before 2050, says Finnish uni study
The report is the first of its kind to suggest a cost-effective, all-inclusive, global roadmap to keep average global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius.
A global transition to the exclusive use of renewable energy sources is not only possible but also cheaper and safer than reliance on fossil fuels and nuclear energy, according to a new study from the Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT) and the Energy Watch Group (EWG) from Germany.
The study claims that the rapid development of renewable energy sources and energy storage technology will likely make it possible for the entire planet to reduce its CO2 emissions to zero even earlier than the current 2050 deadline.
The report is the first of its kind to suggest a cost-effective, all-inclusive, global roadmap to keep average global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius. It is also the first planet-wide climate change resistance plan that suggests not using carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) techniques to mechanically remove CO2 from the atmosphere.
According to the model, in 2050 some 69 percent of the world's energy would come from solar panels, 18 percent from wind power, 3 percent from hydropower systems and 6 percent from bioenergy.
Fossil fuels and nuclear power would not be needed at all. Cars, planes and ships would run on carbon-neutral synthetic fuels produced from hydrogen and carbon dioxide.
Sustainable Development ScenarioSustainable Development Scenario
The world is currently not on track to meet the main energy-related components of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), agreed by 193 countries in 2015. The IEA’s Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS) outlines a major transformation of the global energy system, showing how the world can change course to deliver on the three main energy-related SDGs simultaneously.
Universal access to modern energy is achieved by 2030, in line with SDG 7
A strong drive towards electrification (on-grid and off-grid) and provision of clean cooking facilities means the number of people without access to modern energy drops to zero by 2030, transforming the lives of hundreds of millions, and reducing the severe health impacts of indoor air pollution, overwhelmingly caused by smoke from cooking.
The world delivers on the Paris Agreement and SDG 13
Energy production and use is the largest source of global greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions, meaning that the energy sector is crucial for achieving the objectives of the Paris Agreement on climate change. Under the SDS, energy-related GHG emissions peak around 2020 and then decline rapidly. By 2040, they are at around half of today’s level and on course toward net-zero emissions by 2070, in line with the goals of the Paris Agreement.
Achieving three objectives in parallel
There is no trade-off between achieving climate objectives and delivering on energy access and air pollution goals. Good policy design can exploit synergies between the three parallel objectives of the SDS. Achieving universal access to modern energy only leads to a small increase in CO2 emissions (0.1%), the climate effect of which is more than offset by lower methane emissions due to a reduction in use of traditional biomass cookstoves.
Investment
The SDS presents an energy transition where renewables and energy efficiency lead the charge in reducing CO2 emissions as well as reducing pollutants that cause poor air quality. Renewables become the dominant force in power generation, providing over 65% of global electricity generation by 2040. Wind and solar PV, in particular, soon become the cheapest sources of electricity in many countries and provide nearly 40% of all electricity in 2040. Emissions reduction in transport, industry and buildings are achieved largely through greatly enhanced energy efficiency and increasing levels of electrification of end-uses. Overall, achieving the vision of the SDS would require an increase of only around 13% in energy investment globally, relative to NPS.
kublikhan wrote:Renewables become the dominant force in power generation, providing over 65% of global electricity generation by 2040. Wind and solar PV, in particular, soon become the cheapest sources of electricity in many countries and provide nearly 40% of all electricity in 2040.
RenewablesRenewables
Renewables increased by 4% in 2018, accounting for almost one-quarter of global energy demand growth. The power sector led the gains, with renewables-based electricity generation increasing at its fastest pace this decade. The power sector led the growth, with renewables-based electricity generation increasing by 7%, almost 450 TWh, equivalent to Brazil’s entire electricity demand. This was faster than the 6% average annual growth since 2010.
Energy Infrastructure Progress Reportkublikhan wrote:07 Apr 2017 - Global renewable capacity has just exceeded coal's capacity: 2006 GW of renewable capacity vs 1965 GW of coal capacity. However coal still significantly outpaces renewables in actual generation: 40% of global generation for coal vs 23% for renewables(renewables generate electricity for a smaller fraction of the day compared to coal).
Natural gasNatural gas consumption grew by an estimated 4.6% in 2018, its largest increase since 2010 when gas demand bounced back from the global financial crisis. The United States was the single largest driver of higher demand, with a gain of 80 bcm, up 10.5% from the previous year.
Such historic demand growth was mainly driven by power generation and buildings. A colder winter and hotter summer than average was responsible for around half of the extra gas demand in both sectors.
kublikhan wrote:Renewables growth in 2018 was the fastest this decade:
IEA: World Energy Outlook 2018Key Trends
In the New Policies Scenario, renewables make up more than 60% of gross capacity additions to 2040 in most regions, reaching half of global power generation capacity by 2035. Solar PV is one of the fastest growing technologies, and is projected to become the second-largest installed capacity, with installed capacity overtaking wind in the next few years, hydropower within 15 years and coal before 2040.
Key drivers of the rise in renewables-based electricity include policy support and technology cost reductions. Stable support policy frameworks help drive down costs, in turn providing for increasing policy support while maintaining energy affordability. As a result by 2040, the global average support per unit of output for new solar PV projects declines almost 90%, and for new wind power projects it declines by almost 70%.
BP and McKinsey Agree Renewables Will Be the Dominant Power Source by 2040McKinsey projects that renewables will account for more than 50 percent of global power generation by 2035. In McKinsey’s forecast, renewables are set to grow to 75 percent of generation by 2050.
Bloomberg: New Energy Outlook Forecasts Cheaper Renewables and Batteries, Shrinking Role of Fossil FuelsBloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) has published its ‘New Energy Outlook 2018,’ which focuses on technologies that drive change in energy markets. The report projects that 50% of global electricity production will come from wind and solar energy by 2050, with fossil fuels declining to 29%.
These increases, the report notes, derive in large part from three key dynamics and technological advances: 1) photovoltaic (PV) module prices continuing to drop, keeping pace with learning rates and capacity increases; 2) the continued development of larger and more efficient wind turbines; and 3) decreasing costs for battery packs, in part due to rising electric vehicle sales, that have applications for stationary energy storage. Noting their economies of scale, BNEF projects a 66% drop in battery packs’ cost by 2030.
Across these sections and regions, the report expects the vast majority of finance for new power generating capacity to go towards renewables. Between 2018 and 2050, BNEF projects US$8.4 trillion to be invested in wind and solar energy, out of a total US$11.5 trillion.
kublikhan wrote:Look at the trends.
Bloomberg New Energy Outlook 2018The cost of an average PV plant falls 71% by 2050. Wind energy is getting cheaper too, and we expect it to drop 58% by 2050. PV and wind are already cheaper than building new large-scale coal and gas plants. Batteries are also dropping dramatically in cost. Cheap batteries enable wind and solar to run when the wind isn't blowing and the sun isn't shining.
Is the IEA underestimating renewables?Scenarios from the International Energy Agency (IEA) have failed to predict the growth of renewables and overestimated the role of nuclear.
Last year, the world's photovoltaic power capacity overtook nuclear for the first time – reaching 402 gigawatts, compared to 353 (GW). Wind power outstripped nuclear back in 2014, and by the end of 2017 amounted to 539 GW.
According to the World Wind Energy Association, 2017 saw the installation of 52.6 GW of new wind capacity. The latest estimates from Solar Power Europe put PV capacity installed in that year at 98.9 GW.
New nuclear power facilities going online were modest in comparison – amounting to just 2.7 GW, according to Mycle Schneider, lead author of the World Nuclear Industry Report.
Back in 2010, you might not have predicted such a shift in the global energy mix – at least, not if you were basing your predictions on the International Energy Agency's annual Word Energy Outlook (WEO), which estimated annual deployment of less than 10 GW of photovoltaic capacity. According to this scenario, globally installed solar capacity would hit around 85 GW last year – 315 GW less than the actual figure. Critics say this is part of a pattern of the IEA consistently underestimating the growth of renewables. And that imbalance has, according to a 2015 study, has continued in subsequent annual WEOs from the IEA, which ignores facts such as "climate protection and divestment of finance from the conventional energy sector."
Political bias?
Claudia Kemfert, head of the German Institute for Economic Research's energy and environment department, told DW the IEA has underestimated drop in renewable power costs, as well as the cost of nuclear and fossil alternatives. Hans-Josef Fell, president of the Energy Watch Group, says the IEA acts "on behalf of the OECD governments that ultimately oversee it," and reflects their ongoing commitment to the fossil fuels sector.
The International Energy Agency consistently underestimates wind and solar power.the IEA has always been, and remains, dismally pessimistic about wind and solar energy. This pessimism has led it to underestimate wind and solar again and again, a track record of failure one might think would trouble an agency known for the quality of its modeling.
The IEA done slept on wind and solar
That the IEA has historically underestimated wind and solar is beyond dispute.
* WEO 2010 projected 180 GW of installed solar PV capacity by 2024; that target was met in January 2015.
* Current installed PV capacity exceeds WEO 2010 projections for 2015 by threefold.
* Installed wind capacity in 2010 exceeded WEO 2002 and 2004 projections by 260 and 104 percent respectively.
* WEO 2002 projections for wind energy in 2030 were exceeded in 2010.
* Other, independent analysts (like those at Bloomberg New Energy Finance and Citi) have come closer to accurately forecasting renewables. The only forecasts that match IEA's inaccurate pessimism are those from the likes of BP, Shell, and Exxon Mobil.
kublikhan wrote:Also, keep in mind the IEA has a track record of vastly underestimating how fast renewables will grow.
Renewable Electricity Levelized Cost Of Energy Already Cheaper Than Fossil Fuels, And Prices Keep PlungingThe weighted LCOE for utility-scale solar fell from more than $350/MWh in 2009 to less than $50/MWh in 2017. The weighted LCOE for wind energy declined from around $135/MWh in 2009 to less than $45/MWh in 2017.
The National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL) Annual Technology Baseline 2017 predicts onshore wind and utility-scale solar will continue their rapid cost declines. NREL considers recently installed and anticipated near-term projects to forecast onshore wind’s most likely mid-range LCOE will be $39/MWh in 2020, $33/MWh in 2030, $31/MWh in 2040, and $28/MWh in 2050. Similarly, NREL forecasts utility-scale solar’s most likely mid-range LCOE will be $51/MWh in 2020, $45/MWh in 2030, $41/MWh in 2040, and $37/MWh in 2050.
By comparison, NREL forecasts the LCOE of fossil fuel generation will hold steady or even increase. The ATB predicts the most likely mid-range LCOE for natural gas combined-cycle plants will be $43/MWh in 2020, $47/MWh in 2030, $47/MWh in 2040, and $51/MWh in 2050. Similarly, NREL forecasts coal’s most likely mid-range LCOE will be $71/MWh in 2020, $70/MWh in 2030, $70/MWh in 2030, $70/MWh in 2040, and $68/MWh in 2050. Finally, NREL forecasts nuclear power’s most likely mid-range LCOE will be $79/MWh in 2020, then remain at $78/MWh starting in 2030 through 2050.
Despite 2018 slowdown, 2019 is expected to be a big year for wind powerGlobal commissioning of onshore wind turbines declined 3 percent in 2018, partly due to a slowdown in India and Germany. Growth is expected to bounce back in 2019, with a 32 percent jump to 60 GW. Developers commissioned a little over 45 GW of onshore wind turbines globally in 2018 compared with 47 GW a year earlier.
PV Market Alliance expects 120 GW of new solar capacity in 2019Once again in 2018, the 100 GW mark for new PV capacity was narrowly missed. Analysts say 98 GW of PV capacity was installed last year, a gigawatt shy of the figure they registered a year earlier. By the end of 2018, the world had installed cumulative PV capacity of almost 500 GW.
PV Market Alliance expects 120 GW of new solar capacity in 2019.
Over 50% of all new US Electricity in 2019 Will Come From Renewable EnergyThe Energy Information Administration (EIA) published its latest forecast for new electric generation in 2019 with fully 66 percent of the expected 23.7 gigawatts (GWs) of new generation coming online, coming from renewable energy sources, while the rest will come from natural gas. At the same time the majority (53 percent) of the 8.3 GWs of electric generation retirements will be coal plants.
The majority of the new electric generation will come from wind, which will make up 10.9 GWs of new generation, that’s 46 percent of all new generation. Solar will account for 18 percent of electric generation with 4.3 new gigawatts of utility-scale solar power. However, 3.9 gigawatts of small-scale solar, like rooftop solar, also is projected to come online in the year.
Another 34 percent of electric generation, 7.5 GWs, is expected to come from new natural gas plants, the agency added. The remaining 2 percent of new utility-scale electric generation will come from other renewables and battery storage capacity.
Coal is becoming increasingly less competitive. The largest energy source being retired in 2019 will be from coal plants. Just one coal plant, the Navajo station in Arizona will account for half of the planned retirement capacity for coal. That plant came online in the 1970s. Still, EIA stated that the 4.5 GWs of coal power retiring in 2019 is much less than the 13.7 GWs of coal that retired in 2018.
kublikhan wrote:Theoretical increases in conversion efficiency are not the deciding factor we are talking about.
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