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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 07 Apr 2019, 02:23:13

marmico wrote:The size of the pie (income or net worth) has increased. The inequality issue is the size of the relative slices of the pie.

Yes, but there is relative poverty and absolute poverty. With the pie getting 4x bigger, even "the poor" aren't so poor any more in first world countries.

Of course, liberals don't want to admit this because then the "need" to have them running around preaching taxes must be raised on the scumbags making the pie bigger would cause far more people to wonder why that's really so.

This concept has been known and documented for a long time. "Myths of Rich and Poor" is chock full of statistics illustrating this point. There are all sorts of goods and services re the bigger pie that didn't exist at ANY price not that long ago. And they make "the poor" better off, even if they can't afford the gold plated version of such products.

https://www.amazon.com/Myths-Rich-Poor- ... 0465047831

Cars that run well for 15 years or even longer, microwave ovens, cell phones, smart phones, powerful laptop computers, digital cameras, and on and on.

Re a true absolute poverty problem in North America, what with the EITC, Obamacare, SNAP, housing assistance, and on and on -- there's much more of a "X says its unfair" problem, than an absolute poverty problem. And of course, whether the liberals admit it or not, the progressive income tax means that as a group, the wealthy pay a HUGE proportion of the first world income taxes, and the bottom half (many of whom have a negative income tax rate), hardly pay any.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby evilgenius » Sun 07 Apr 2019, 10:44:52

vtsnowedin wrote:
evilgenius wrote:Right you are, Pops. It's not illegal to lobby for changes in the law that institute a leveraged position in favor of a privileged party. The best example is how Republicans have systematically undermined labor's position. Now, instead of employees, we have independent contractors.

The move to independent contractors replacing employees is at least fifteen years old and can hardly be blamed on Trump of the Republicans. The real culprit is rapidly rising health insurance premiums making the independents a cheaper source of skilled labor.

The point I'm making has nothing to do with Trump, as you rightly point out. I'm well aware these are long term trends. I don't know why you, or Cog above, referenced Trump in association with it.

The trouble with bringing up Trump is that it suggests that the solution for the US is one that removes him. That would be to side with the anti-nationalists, who think that Trump has created a whole set of new problems which have bent the norm. The norm is the problem, though. Trump has actually seized upon certain aspects of the norm and run against them. One of those being how people feel the competition with new, and cheaper, employees too frequently. But he's only there because he has pollsters and others who know what's making people angry. He's standing against immigration when the real threat is from automation and artificial intelligence. That's where the next crop of competitors for people's jobs will more drastically come from. It's already devastating retail. Next it'll probably hit transportation and warehousing. Eventually, it will get around to healthcare.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 07 Apr 2019, 10:54:35

evilgenius wrote:The point I'm making has nothing to do with Trump, as you rightly point out. I'm well aware these are long term trends. I don't know why you, or Cog above, referenced Trump in association with it.

.

As the current head of the Republican party any criticism of the party appears to be an attack on Trump. Or at least that is how I read this line from you.
Republicans have systematically undermined labor's position.

In reality the labor unions are the guilty ones at undermining workers positions with union leaders negotiating contracts that made their members unprofitable. That those union leaders support Democratic candidates I think your view is incorrect.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby evilgenius » Sun 07 Apr 2019, 10:58:59

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
marmico wrote:The size of the pie (income or net worth) has increased. The inequality issue is the size of the relative slices of the pie.

Yes, but there is relative poverty and absolute poverty. With the pie getting 4x bigger, even "the poor" aren't so poor any more in first world countries.

Of course, liberals don't want to admit this because then the "need" to have them running around preaching taxes must be raised on the scumbags making the pie bigger would cause far more people to wonder why that's really so.

This concept has been known and documented for a long time. "Myths of Rich and Poor" is chock full of statistics illustrating this point. There are all sorts of goods and services re the bigger pie that didn't exist at ANY price not that long ago. And they make "the poor" better off, even if they can't afford the gold plated version of such products.

https://www.amazon.com/Myths-Rich-Poor- ... 0465047831

Cars that run well for 15 years or even longer, microwave ovens, cell phones, smart phones, powerful laptop computers, digital cameras, and on and on.

Re a true absolute poverty problem in North America, what with the EITC, Obamacare, SNAP, housing assistance, and on and on -- there's much more of a "X says its unfair" problem, than an absolute poverty problem. And of course, whether the liberals admit it or not, the progressive income tax means that as a group, the wealthy pay a HUGE proportion of the first world income taxes, and the bottom half (many of whom have a negative income tax rate), hardly pay any.


And all the while the big thing that's being missed is how no one will pay for necessary infrastructure improvements. This has brought on the public/private development squeeze, which locks out choice and freedom of movement to respond to future developments owing to contractual obligations by the public to the private funding entities. It limits choice moreover, in that only projects which private entities can see a profit coming from will ever be considered. If the average person made the sort of wages they ought to, adjusted for inflation, they wouldn't be so poor that a call upon them for more taxes than the current level they are paying would be so automatically rejected. In fact, all along the percentages would have worked in the public's favor and infrastructure would have benefited. This is a very important issue because we are about to hit that period where we need very much to quickly adopt fully electric vehicles rather than hang onto the old gasoline driven paradigm via hybridization. We will need that for a time, but we can't linger there. If we linger we face becoming mired in resource wars in the Middle East. I have my doubts we can do that given the current attitudes running about in both the minds of the people, and which are embedded in the law.
Last edited by evilgenius on Sun 07 Apr 2019, 11:26:07, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby evilgenius » Sun 07 Apr 2019, 11:03:48

vtsnowedin wrote:
evilgenius wrote:The point I'm making has nothing to do with Trump, as you rightly point out. I'm well aware these are long term trends. I don't know why you, or Cog above, referenced Trump in association with it.

.

As the current head of the Republican party any criticism of the party appears to be an attack on Trump. Or at least that is how I read this line from you.
Republicans have systematically undermined labor's position.

In reality the labor unions are the guilty ones at undermining workers positions with union leaders negotiating contracts that made their members unprofitable. That those union leaders support Democratic candidates I think your view is incorrect.

Look, I concede that the Democrats have some substantial role to play in the current situation. I also concede that labor unions themselves do as well. Their reaction to most of what has happened to them has been to protect those with seniority, and throw those without it under the bus. By not protecting the young, they only doomed their own future. But to say that the Republicans had no real role in the current situation is patently absurd.

That being said, I think the one overall thing which served to undermine the position of labor unions above all others was their association with organized crime. Americans by nature are freedom loving individualists. Working Americans are no exception. Just the term organized crime by itself carries certain connotations. To the generations interacting in the 60's it also carried the prohibition era baggage of excess. That was when organized crime became strong, bootlegging alcohol. It took quite a concerted effort to quell that threat. One which was present in the minds of that generation much more than it is today. Reading about it in history books doesn't quite convey the feelings of disgust that the average American had for organized crime and, therefore, addressed toward unions, at least potentially, by association. Every time some story, or joke, concerning the whereabouts of Jimmy Hoffa came up, it only exacerbated those old feelings, and further strained the relationship between independently minded people and organized labor. Given that understanding, where workers were each on their own when confronting business as much out of their own biases as due to a continual assault upon rights to collective bargaining, among other things, it's not so hard to understand labor's demise.
Last edited by evilgenius on Sun 07 Apr 2019, 11:41:50, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 07 Apr 2019, 11:29:10

I did not say the Republicans had no role. Your statement blamed them for the whole process which is what I objected to.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 07 Apr 2019, 19:26:10

evilgenius wrote:And all the while the big thing that's being missed is how no one will pay for necessary infrastructure improvements. This has brought on the public/private development squeeze, which locks out choice and freedom of movement to respond to future developments owing to contractual obligations by the public to the private funding entities. It limits choice moreover, in that only projects which private entities can see a profit coming from will ever be considered.

I don't see how that's a rich-poor issue or a left-right issue. If the dems, and those who vote for them, REALLY wanted to highly prioritize infrastructure spending, then they'd DO that.

It would either happen, or we'd see dems yelling about it weekly on the news.

When Trump talked about spending roughly a $trillion on infrastructure, all the sudden the dems were yammering about deficits. Apparently they only want infrastrcture spending if they think it will help THEM get elected.

How nice. :roll:

I like infrastructure spending. Unlike most folks though, I'm OK with paying for it, as long as the money is spent wisely. I'd be happy to pay somewhat more for natural gas, electric, etc. if the extra were going into well supervised programs to renew the relevant infrastructure instead of just upping the income for the utilities -- just to cite one example.

Rich people need roads, sea ports, air ports, energy, water, etc. etc. But after election race promises, how about the folks who end up in power and then don't prioritize infrastucture? Folks on BOTH SIDES of the aisle.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 08 Apr 2019, 01:57:01

I see this thread is still nowhere close to getting back on-topic.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 09 Apr 2019, 08:42:51

IMF CUTS 2019 GLOBAL OUTLOOK TO LOWEST SINCE FINANCIAL CRISIS
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby marmico » Tue 09 Apr 2019, 09:33:09

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 09 Apr 2019, 11:12:24

U.S. factory orders fall for the fourth time in five months, reflecting economic slowdown
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby marmico » Tue 09 Apr 2019, 11:21:42

US light vehicle sales in March 2019 at 17.5 million units trounced consensus estimates

https://economics.td.com/us-vehicle-sales
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 09 Apr 2019, 11:33:42

Automakers Stuff Fleet Channels Amid Showroom Demand Collapse

Fleet sales - those to rental companies - have been for a long time the dirty little secret of the automobile industry. They are often times where automakers can bolster numbers that would otherwise looks dismal based only on organic, showroom sales. And according to Bloomberg, this is exactly what has been happening over the last couple of months.

Rental car deliveries and other non-retail buyers have accounted for more than 33% of total sales last month for Ford and Nissan, according to data from Cox automotive. In fact, deliveries to rental companies alone in March and in the first quarter were the highest that they’ve been in two years.

There is, of course, a catch: rental car sales have lower profit margins and generally erode used vehicle prices once they hit the resale market. It seems as though automakers are now, more than in the past few years, leaning on fleet deliveries to make up for demand in the showroom as economic growth in the US and worldwide, is collapsing.


https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04- ... d-sputters
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby dirtyharry » Tue 09 Apr 2019, 11:46:57

The BS called the stock market . There is no ^price discovery^ only racketeering . The biggest racketeer admits that .
https://wolfstreet.com/2019/04/08/what- ... dman-asks/
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby marmico » Tue 09 Apr 2019, 12:44:22

leaning on fleet deliveries to make up for demand in the showroom as economic growth in the US and worldwide, is collapsing.


BS. Light duty vehicle fleet sales are recorded in the GDP private fixed investment equipment account and light duty vehicle retail ("showroom") sales are recorded in the personal consumption expenditure durable goods account.

Cox Automotive reports that annual fleet sales are ~16% of total sales.

https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insig ... p-in-2019/

No matter how you slice and dice, showroom sales were higher in March than in February.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 09 Apr 2019, 12:45:04

It seems as though automakers are now, more than in the past few years, leaning on fleet deliveries to make up for demand in the showroom as economic growth in the US and worldwide, is collapsing.


According to the World Bank, world GDP between 20014 and 2017 grew at an average annual rate of 0.065%. If the currency expansion that has been done by the BOJ, PBC, and ECB are taken into account it is already well into negative territory! MSNBC seems to have missed that little item, although they did an outstanding job on Russia Gate, and Trumps two pieces of cake?
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 09 Apr 2019, 13:09:30

dirtyharry wrote:The BS called the stock market . There is no ^price discovery^ only racketeering . The biggest racketeer admits that .
https://wolfstreet.com/2019/04/08/what- ... dman-asks/


Apparently some people will never learn that you can't mount a reasonable appeal to authority by linking to sites that profit off of doom and conspiracies.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 09 Apr 2019, 13:32:27

asg70 wrote:
dirtyharry wrote:The BS called the stock market . There is no ^price discovery^ only racketeering . The biggest racketeer admits that .
https://wolfstreet.com/2019/04/08/what- ... dman-asks/


Apparently some people will never learn that you can't mount a reasonable appeal to authority by linking to sites that profit off of doom and conspiracies.




Bloomberg is doom and gloom?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby marmico » Tue 09 Apr 2019, 13:54:23

According to the World Bank, world GDP between 20014 and 2017 grew at an average annual rate of 0.065%.


How many times do we have to do this, ETP Bozo?

The USD rose 30% in that time period which depresses the GDP of the rest of the world relative to the USD. Quit your job at the circus and learn something.

The World Bank reports that world GDP has been rising at 2%-4% annual rate since 2010.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 09 Apr 2019, 14:20:13

asg70 wrote:Apparently some people will never learn that you can't mount a reasonable appeal to authority by linking to sites that profit off of doom and conspiracies.

+1

And there you have the central behavior of the perma-doomers (genus fast-crash) in a nutshell. And it reminds me most of conspiracy theory believers in general.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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