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Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 30 Mar 2019, 11:14:23

Yoshua wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
Yoshua wrote:

I bet one dollar that the price will crash!

By what date and how far? I'll bet a dollar it will double if I don't have to say when. :)


Let's not make this too complicated. I say it won't brake the line of resistance.
Is that the same as the old MAP line? If so you have already lost.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Yoshua » Sat 30 Mar 2019, 11:57:39

Now I remember why you are on our jihadi hit list.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 30 Mar 2019, 13:59:08

Yoshua wrote:I say it won't brake the line of resistance.


Image

Yoshua wrote:Now I remember why you are on our jihadi hit list.


Image


Yoshua, you're losing it man. You're on your way to Starving Lion levels of babbling.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 30 Mar 2019, 14:04:37

Yoshua wrote:Now I remember why you are on our jihadi hit list.

Ah come on now don't be chicken. Draw up one of your charts with labels on the lines so we can see which line you think we wont cross. Your last chart was almost blank and I can't tell which line you consider which.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Yoshua » Sat 30 Mar 2019, 14:20:54

I give up... anyway I'm busy running after chickens in my living room after they flew through the walls...some of them are even doing some wierd voodoo stuff...loosing their heads and running wild... it's a freaking mess...
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 30 Mar 2019, 14:30:03

Yoshua wrote:I give up... anyway I'm busy running after chickens in my living room after they flew through the walls...some of them are even doing some wierd voodoo stuff...loosing their heads and running wild... it's a freaking mess...
You have chickens that can fly through walls???? 8O
Or perhaps worse you have walls that chickens can fly through!!! :lol:
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 30 Mar 2019, 14:30:34

Maybe Short, you can tell us what is going on here?
Infected U.S. Shale Oil Is Being Turned Away by Asian Buyers



https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... 2gnnuizK98
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 30 Mar 2019, 14:32:39

Comentary 15 11/07/16

The Maximum Affordability Function projections, and EIA reported price of WTI:
Code: Select all
         MAF      EIA WTI   
2016...$65.94       $43.29
2017....54.18       $50.88 

Dealing with congenital idiots can get rather boring.

The MAF broke down in 2018, just before the arrival of Peak. That decline in correlation began in 2012; it was 52 years before the correlation between petroleum production, and world GDP began to fail. We can be assured that in the future the dollar will continue to perform ever more poorly as a reliable pricing mechanism. That situation will magnify as petroleum's ability to power the economy declines. The central banks are responding by reducing their exposure to the dollar, and also increasing and securing their holdings of gold. Their actions, although obviously defensive, are only serving to aggravate an already precarious situation. The resulting liquidity shortages will generate the last series of monetary/financial crises before the debt based monetary system collapses, and is scrapped and replaced.

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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 30 Mar 2019, 14:44:35

The central banks are responding by reducing their exposure to the dollar, and also increasing and securing their holdings of gold.

Gee with all that CB bank purchasing of gold you would think the price would rise above the $1300 level it has hovered around for the last five years. :razz:
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 30 Mar 2019, 15:23:16

Maybe Short, you can tell us what is going on here?


Hi onlooker! Well, I am not buying the Bloomberg story of "oxygenates" contaminating the crude. The main oxygenate used with crude is ethanol, and oxygenates aren't added until the crude has already entered the refinery. Plus their statement that the Gulf Coast refineries are more sophisticated is also bull. SK has some to the most advanced operations in the world. They did mention "metals", but metals are not picked in the pipelines. They come out of the well. My best guess would be that there is vanadium or cadmium contaminated crude coming out of the EF. The Saudi have a 60 Gb field (Manifa) that they haven't been able to sell for 70 years because it is vanadium contaminated. That field also constitutes more than half of their supposed reserves?? This sounds more like like CYA PR than the truth.

Keep us posted if you run into anything else on this. Thanks.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby marmico » Sun 31 Mar 2019, 03:39:25

A chart from one of ETP Bozo's Side Car Clowns, Louis Arnoux.

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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 01 Apr 2019, 15:19:23

The oil industry is doing fine...but as a percentage of the global economy they are sinking.

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/arti ... ssion=true
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 01 Apr 2019, 16:30:44

The correlation coefficient of the EIA and World Bank data plotted in chart139a is R2 = 0.99. The last 6 points, which are denoted as the "2012 - 2016 anomaly", indicate a change in that relationship with the probability of occurrence of more than 6 standard deviations from the mean (more than 1 in a million chance that it is random event). GDP is changing its relationship to petroleum, which is to be expected as we approach the end of the oil age. Without the standard it provided, from which currencies can be set: the monetary system will continue to fail as a true pricing mechanism for trade and distribution. At which point the system will fail. Depending on the difference between the theoretical vs actual waste heat generation of the Petroleum Production System that will occur sometime between 2023 and 2030. The world's present massive debt structure almost assures that the failure of the monetary system will be catastrophic when it occurs.

Adoption of a new monetary system will then be necessary, and gold will most likely be adopted to fulfill that roll. Gold's historical significance as a currency of exchange will make it the overwhelming standard of choice. Adoption of a new global gold standard will re-denominate the present US dollar to approximately 4 cents on the present dollar. Other currencies will do much worse. Standards of living will fall to reflect petroleum's declining ability to power the economy.

This scenario is now playing out across the world, as is seen in nations like Venezuela, Turkey, Iran, Argentina, and many other African and central Asian nations were the value of their currencies have, or is rapidly approaching zero. What the social and geopolitical implications will be is unknown.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 01 Apr 2019, 18:20:28

China and Russia continue dumping US treasuries it seems paving the way for this new gold backed monetary system
https://www.rt.com/business/450305-russ ... reasuries/
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 01 Apr 2019, 18:40:17

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03- ... tive-swift


With Russia actively dumping US dollars and buying gold at the fastest paced in decades, the writing is on the wall when it comes to what the Kremlin thinks of any possibility for a detente in the painfully strained US-Russian relations.

Russia

And with Russia now clearly seeking to end monetary ties with a dollar-denominated "west", there is just one alternative - China. Which is why it will probably not come as a surprise that several Russian banks joined the China International Payments System (CIPS) also known as China's "SWIFT", to ease operations between the two countries, according to a senior official at the Central Bank of Russia (CBR).
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby dissident » Mon 01 Apr 2019, 23:30:48

At some stage the manipulation of gold prices via "paper gold" sales will fail. Paper gold vouchers which are what most buyers actually pay for are a scam which is an over-subscription on the actual gold amount. These vouchers form a type of commodity market when it is not possible to have such a market for a severely limited supply item such as gold.

The end of the cheap energy age will destabilize fiat currencies and gold will become prominent again. The frenzy of gold buying is just recognition of the looming crisis. And it is a frenzy. The Russian central bank is buying more gold than is domestically produced by Russia, which is no small amount. Of course, there are countries like Canada that are detached from reality who have liquidated any gold reserves. I guess Canada is planning on riding America's coat tails.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby marmico » Mon 01 Apr 2019, 23:54:07

At some stage the manipulation of gold Seychelles sea shell prices via "paper" gold Seychelles sea shell sales will fail. Paper gold Seychelles sea shells vouchers which are what most buyers actually pay for are a scam which is an over-subscription on the actual gold Seychelles sea shells amount. These vouchers form a type of commodity market when it is not possible to have such a market for a severely limited supply item such as gold Seychelles sea shells.

Diversify your portfolio of real estate, stocks, bonds with 5% of Seychelles sea shells.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 02 Apr 2019, 01:16:32

Venezuela: "According to preliminary internal estimates from state-owned PdV, March average crude production could be as low as 500,000 b/d, half of the February average, factoring in multiple days of shut-in output because of the collapse of the power grid."

Venezuela has equal "reserves" with Saudi Arabia...but the quality of the reserves in Venezuela are far lower.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Cog » Tue 02 Apr 2019, 03:53:34

I want to hear more about the chickens.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 02 Apr 2019, 12:48:56

"BRAZIL OIL OUTPUT -4.9% YOY IN FEB., TO 3,182M BARRELS/DAY"

Another South American nation post peak oil?

Petrobras is an over indebted oil company. Can Petrobras even produce oil from the pre salt reservoirs economically?
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