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Making Tesla pt. 3

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Re: Making Tesla pt. 3

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 22 Mar 2019, 11:34:00

Tesla car sales numbers are declining dramatically

tesla-sales

Could be a sign the economy is slowing down, or it could be that all the bad media about Tesla crashes and poor quality manufacturing are having an effect. Or it could be that Elon Musk's crazy tweets and lawsuit with the SEC is scaring people away.

Or it could be that Teslas just aren't cool anymore and nobody wants one anymore. I know I think "what a loser" every time I see somebody who blew their wad on an overpriced Tesla.

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Cheers!
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People who buy new cars and then cry crocodile tears over climate change. The manufacture of a typical new car emits ca. 16 tons of CO2 and a new EV is actually much worse since the battery also has to be manufactured, resulting in a total carbon footprint of ca. 30 tons of CO2
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 3

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 22 Mar 2019, 13:04:14

Plantagenet wrote:Tesla car sales numbers are declining dramatically

tesla-sales

Could be a sign the economy is slowing down, or it could be that all the bad media about Tesla crashes and poor quality manufacturing are having an effect. Or it could be that Elon Musk's crazy tweets and lawsuit with the SEC is scaring people away.

Or it could be that Teslas just aren't cool anymore and nobody wants one anymore. I know I think "what a loser" every time I see somebody who blew their wad on an overpriced Tesla.

One telling issue, IMO, is that it's just so damn hard to get accurate numbers, except on a quarterly basis.

Real (i.e. mature, profitable) car companies report monthly sales, officially, openly, to the press. Not Musk or Tesla. So it's all speculation, reading tea leaves, looking at parking lots, looking at the Bloomberg Model 3 estimator, looking at ships docking or leaving, etc. It's a joke. Example re Toyota. Note, March 1 story of Feb. sales:

https://pressroom.toyota.com/releases/t ... +sales.htm

The Bloomberg Model 3 estimator, which seems to have a decent track record over time, says that Tesla has been producing under 6000 cars a week, and creeping toward that number as a trend. Sales in North America, into mid-March have been soft compared to 4Q, but decent compared to 1Q'18 (source: Inside EVs Monthly Sales Scorecard -- the best data on EV sales I know of) Parking lots are reported to be crammed with Tesla's. Production doesn't necessarily equal sales, especially in the short term.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/

https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

Musk is currently running a massive "employee volunteer" project to try to deliver sold cars to customers in 1Q in the US. Globally, rumors are all over the place and twitter reporting on various newspaper reports (which are all over the place) seems to be the "main" news source.

Nothing sketchy about that. /s

I honestly think it's kind of hard to tell about actual Tesla global sales -- which IMO, is a problem. Why not just be transparent and disclose, if there's nothing to hide?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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