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The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 18 Jul 2018, 10:30:24

The Flash Drought Brought Misery, but Did It Change Minds on Climate Change?

Ranchers in Divide County, North Dakota, rely on the rain. Last year the rains failed, and the temperature shot up. ‘The crops just didn’t come out of the ground.’


Drought is an especially wily adversary. As an officer of the North Dakota Department of Emergency Services told me recently, "You can't put up a sandbag wall to stop a drought."

In Divide County, agricultural producers are especially vulnerable to the effects of drought, since they depend on dryland methods. Dryland farmers use no irrigation. Instead, they rely wholly on rain: to initiate the lush growth of little bluestem and other pastureland grasses that will sustain their herds through the summer, and to secure the hay harvest that will get the herd through the winter. Not to mention the rain they need for their wheat, barley and pea cash crops.

In 2017, ranchers were optimistic when they put their cattle out to graze in late spring. There'd been record snowfall over the winter, and regional forecasts weren't calling for any drought conditions in their northwest region of the Great Plains. By May, though, concerns were rising. Rain failed to come, and the good winter moisture evaporated into a cloudless sky. By July, two-thirds of the pastureland in the Dakotas was in poor condition, and across the High Plains, from Kansas up to Canada, temperatures were above normal while precipitation was low—perfect conditions for what's known as a "flash drought," sudden and severe.

By the first of August, the USDA reported that nearly three-quarters of North Dakota's topsoil was desperately bereft of moisture. Part of Divide County was at the most severe drought level, and 60 percent of the state was facing some level of drought. It was the state's fourth-driest summer since record-keeping started in 1895. Ranchers hauled water to their herds and vied for hay donations that flowed in from other regions after the state opened a hay lottery. Anything to supplement the feed of the hungry cattle.

What happened? How had it happened so fast? And would it happen again? ...


https://insideclimatenews.org/news/1707 ... ate-change
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 21 Jul 2018, 09:59:04

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... ips-europe

Crop failure and bankruptcy threaten farmers as drought grips Europe


Abnormally hot temperatures continue to wreak devastation across northern and central parts of the continent

Farmers across northern and central Europe are facing crop failure and bankruptcy as one of the most intense regional droughts in recent memory strengthens its grip.

States of emergency have been declared in Latvia and Lithuania, while the sun continues to bake Swedish fields that have received only 12% of their normal rainfall.

The abnormally hot temperatures – which have topped 30C in the Arctic Circle – are in line with climate change trends, according to the World Meteorological Organization. And as about 50 wildfires rage across Sweden, no respite from the heatwave is yet in sight.

Lennart Nilsson, a 55-year-old cattle farmer from Falkenberg near Malmo and co-chair of the Swedish Farmers Association, said it was the worst drought he had experienced.

“This is really serious,” he said. “Most of south-west Sweden hasn’t had rain since the first days of May. A very early harvest has started but yields seem to be the lowest for 25 years – 50% lower, or more in some cases – and it is causing severe losses.”

If no rain comes soon, Nilsson’s association estimates agricultural losses of up to 8bn Swedish kronor (£700m) this year and widespread bankruptcies. The drought would personally cost him around 500,000 kronor (£43,000), Nilsson said, adding that, like most farmers, he is now operating at a loss.

The picture is little different in the Netherlands, where Iris Bouwers, a 25-year-old farmer, said the parched summer had been a “catastrophe” for her farm.

“Older families around me are comparing this to 1976,” she said. “My dad can’t remember any drought like this.” The Bouwerses expect to lose €100,000 this year after a 30% drop in their potato crop. After investing in a pig stable over the winter, the family have no savings to cover the loss.

Asked what she would do, Bouwers just laughed. “Hope and pray,” she said. “There is not much more I can do. I wouldn’t talk about bankruptcy yet, but our deficit will be substantial. It probably means we need to have a very good talk with the bank.”

If anything, the situation is even worse in Poland, Belarus and the Czech Republic, where vegetation stress has taken hold. In parts of Germany, some farmers are reportedly destroying arid crops.

After June was declared the second warmest on record, the European commission pledged to help farmers with a raft of measures, including the temporary suspension of “greening” obligations partly intended to prevent climate change.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby M_B_S » Sun 22 Jul 2018, 12:29:51

http://www.abc.net.au/triplej/programs/ ... ht/9959434

The natural disaster nobody's talking about
MONDAY 9 JULY 2018 5:02PM

In New South Wales, 99 per cent of the state is currently affected by drought, and there's no clear end to it in sight....
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby M_B_S » Tue 24 Jul 2018, 03:06:14

NETHERLANDS DROUGHT RECORD SOON TO BE BROKEN
By Janene Pieters on July 23, 2018 - 09:30
https://nltimes.nl/2018/07/23/netherlan ... oon-broken
Image

This summer is fast becoming the driest summer the Netherlands ever had. It seems almost certain that the drought record dating from the summer of 1976 will be broken in the coming days, meteorologist Brian Verhoeven of Buienradar said to RTL Nieuws.

There is still no prospect of significant rain in the coming days, and the precipitation deficit will therefore continue to rise. Some rain may fall from Thursday, but not enough to end the drought. Multiple water saving measures have already been implemented across the Netherlands.

Also in terms of temperatures, no relief is in sight. From Tuesday maximums will climb higher and higher, with 35 degrees Celsius expected on Thursday. A national heatwave is almost certain. As soon as temperatures climb above 30 degrees in De Bilt for three days - a very good chance of this happening by Thursday - there is an official national heatwave.

Here too a record may be broken. The longest national heatwave in the Netherlands now stands at 18 days. If De Bilt counts three days above 30 degrees on Thursday, that will be day 12 of the heatwave....
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby M_B_S » Mon 20 Aug 2018, 21:38:28

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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 23 Aug 2018, 17:57:03

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/ ... river.html

'When you see me, cry:' European droughts reveal hidden 15th century 'hunger stone' messages carved into river rocks

Boulders known as 'hunger stones' are reappearing in the Elbe River
River that begins in Czech Republic then crosses Germany into the North Sea
One message carved in 1616 used to warn people that hard times were coming


I like to think of the Env forum at POForums as kind of a big digital hunger stone! :-D :shock:
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 05 Oct 2018, 10:31:18

Drought in Europe Summer 2018: crisis management in an orderly chaos

https://www.farm-europe.eu/blog-en/drou ... rly-chaos/

DWD says no precipitation in sight (in german).
https://www.dwd.de/DE/wetter/thema_des_ ... /10/5.html
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby M_B_S » Sat 06 Oct 2018, 05:26:59

MEGA DROUGHT IN CENTRAL EUROPE 2018

Image


Outlook : bad
Image
*******************
Germany cannot feed its people or animals water=food situation critical if drought goes on next year and so on.

Germanys drought <=> California drought
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 07 Oct 2018, 14:41:42

Thanks for the maps, MBS. How bad is it in your particular area?
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby M_B_S » Sun 07 Oct 2018, 17:27:27

dohboi wrote:Thanks for the maps, MBS. How bad is it in your particular area?



Drought affected about 90% of German territory in 2018
September 18, 2018, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
Heat and Drought in Europe

Also other regions of Europe suffered from the extreme drought and heat. In Southwest Spain and South Portugal, the highest daily temperatures often exceeded 45°C. Unusually high temperatures and drought also were recorded temporarily in the South and Southeast of England. Sometimes, warm air flows even reached the North of Scandinavia.

In the latest report of CEDIM, the heat and drought of 2018 are explained by a large-area flow pattern that prevailed above Europe for months and was associated with constant high pressure above the North of the continent. In spite of some variations in spring and summer, this flow pattern constantly regenerated itself. In case of such a dominating general weather situation, Atlantic low-pressure zones with cool and cloudy air and precipitation hardly reach central Europe.

Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2018-09-drought-a ... y.html#jCp
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River Rhein near record low 0,69 m October 2018
https://www.swr.de/swraktuell/rheinland ... z-100.html
September 2018
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/mark ... friday-wsv

IT MUST RAIN NORMAL in 2019 OR WE ALL PAY THE PRICE
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Subjectivist » Tue 09 Oct 2018, 15:49:42

M_B_S wrote:MEGA DROUGHT IN CENTRAL EUROPE 2018

Image


Outlook : bad
Image
*******************
Germany cannot feed its people or animals water=food situation critical if drought goes on next year and so on.

Germanys drought <=> California drought



Looks to me as if the drought is mostly in Western Europe with minor outbreaks trailing into central Europe. The European subcontinent is very broad west to east, calling anything in Germany or France central is a gross mistatement of the actual dimensions. If you actually split it into three equal areas west to east then Russia to the Urals would be east, Beylorus and Poland would be central and the parts west of Poland western.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby M_B_S » Tue 09 Oct 2018, 17:09:58

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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby vox_mundi » Fri 26 Oct 2018, 06:54:31


'Big dry' drags on as Australia sets up drought-proof fund


Australia is setting up a billion-dollar fund to "future proof" the country against droughts, Prime Minister Scott Morrison said Friday, as farmers struggle with a 'big dry' forecast set to continue for months.

... The drought, coupled with damaging frost in some areas, is set to produce the smallest winter grain crop in 10 years, according to a forecast from Rabobank, a specialist agribusiness bank.

"The 2018/19 winter crop will go down as one of the worst in eastern Australia's history," it said in a report this week.

The Bureau of Meteorology meanwhile forecast that the next three months would be drier and warmer than average, meaning "a low chance of recovery for drought-affected areas of eastern Australi
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby vox_mundi » Fri 26 Oct 2018, 16:45:58

Drought-hit Rhine Forces Germany to Tap Oil Reserves

The German government on Friday said it had authorised the release of strategic fuel reserves after record-low water levels in the drought-hit Rhine river badly disrupted oil shipments in recent weeks

Among those worst hit by delivery problems because of the reduced river traffic has been Frankfurt's busy international airport, as well as the city of Cologne and the western states of Hesse, Baden-Wuerttemberg and Rhineland Palatinate.

By law, Germany may tap its oil product reserves "to relieve a local crisis situation".

According to Wirtschaftswoche magazine, it is only the fourth time in 40 years the government has taken this step.

Months of scarce rainfall and hot sunny weather have driven water levels on the Rhine to historic lows, forcing barges to halt services or dramatically reduce their cargo to stay afloat.
On Friday, Cologne measured a water level of just 73 centimetres (29 inches).

The ongoing dry spell has prompted industrial giant Thyssenkrupp to cut back production at its Duisburg plant because of a reduced supply of raw materials.

Chemicals giant BASF has likewise grappled with "limited deliveries" to its Ludwigshafen factory, while energy group RWE is struggling to supply its Hamm power plant with coal.

Other rivers in Germany have suffered too, with levels on the Elbe leading to Hamburg also dangerously low.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Revi » Thu 01 Nov 2018, 13:08:55

Here's another article about the drought:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-amer ... SKCN1LN2AY
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 03 Jan 2019, 15:22:54

This article from the Economist is on our front page but I thought it deserved a bump here. It discusses the water situation in aindia and China and promotes a book on the same issue.

To my mind it really points to the problem of over population and how the Green Revolution has set us up for a horrible disaster. Eventually.

https://www.economist.com/books-and-art ... -and-china
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 03 Feb 2019, 21:47:18

Beyond Drought: 7 States Rebalance Their Colorado River Use as Global Warming Dries the Region


On Thursday night, Arizona joined other states that share the river basin in agreeing to voluntary water conservation plans. Its legislature approved a plan that helps balance the state's competing water rights with of those of California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming, along with Native American tribes and Mexico. The states faced a Jan. 31 deadline for completing interstate contingency plans on water rights; without them, federal officials could order mandatory cuts later this year. Only a California water district had yet to agree.
...
A 2018 study used hydrology models to tease out what was causing the reduced runoff. It blamed a little more than half of the decline on unprecedented regional warming, which melted the snowpack and increased water use by plants. The rest was due to lower snowfall in four key pockets of Colorado where most of the water originates.

Model simulations run by Keith Musselman of the University of Colorado for a 2017 study indicated that some Western mountains could be expected to lose 10 percent of their mountain snowpack for every 1 degree Celsius of warming. (The models simulated flows in the Southern Sierra Nevada.)

A third application of advanced models across six mountainous regions of the West saw global warming driving the snowline — the altitude where snow falls above, but rain below — significantly higher up the slopes. Rain runs off immediately, while snow is stored until spring or summer.

The results "overwhelmingly indicate" the vulnerability of snowpack to a warmer climate," wrote the authors, from the University of Utah. ...

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/3101 ... tion-plans
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby jawagord » Sat 16 Mar 2019, 12:41:48

Seems California’s climate change induced “1000 year drought” has ended early, made it to 7 years, which would seem to be a “normal” weather pattern for California? Another doomer scare scenario bites the dust, bring on the next doom!

California is drought-free for the first time since Dec. 20, 2011, said the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, which jointly produces the monitor with the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

“The state had experienced some form of drought for 376 consecutive weeks,” the center tweeted.

The state came close to being drought-free in soggy 2017 when it was whittled down to less than 9 percent of the state and then-Gov. Jerry Brown lifted an emergency declaration intended to conserve water.


https://www.chicoer.com/2019/03/14/moni ... et-winter/

Greenhouse gases trapped in the upper atmosphere mirror the natural climatic forces of some ancient droughts that lasted for 1,000 years, UCLA researchers say in a Scientific Reports study released Thursday.

https://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2016/09 ... r-drought/
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 16 Mar 2019, 18:08:17

I did not want to get on the sky is falling band wagon over the California drought and to be fair about it I don't want to jump on "It snowed so it's over" band wagon either. This maybe just a one or two year pause in a longer term trend so I will enjoy the higher lake levels etc. but not presume that it is over for a couple of years yet.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby yellowcanoe » Sat 16 Mar 2019, 18:30:53

Newfie wrote:
To my mind it really points to the problem of over population and how the Green Revolution has set us up for a horrible disaster. Eventually.



Sorry I don't have a link but my recollection is that one of the architects of the Green Revolution saw it as a way to buy time to deal with the population growth problem. Of course we did no such thing and the Green Revolution has simply enabled us to keep growing to the 7.5+ billion people that we currently have on this planet.
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