Outcast_Searcher wrote:pstarr wrote:Did I miss anything??
Yes you did. The usual false Cassandra claim that there are no more major productive oil deposits to be found globally. Or the implication that improving technology can't help. Or that market forces (if prices rise due to REAL WORLD shortages), that more oil can't be found.
Or your track record of literally thousands of completely bogus predictions of "doom" on this site over the past decade plus, which you pretend have no bearing on how credible your empty claims are.
But by all means, do carry on. Cassandras need hobbies too.
New Major deposits have to not only match all the declining production, to substitute such, but produce in excess to increase overall world production. Discoveries peaked last century, and there doesn't seem to be any reason to expect fields of such gargantuan magnitude as to replace, substitute, the entire global decline from most fields and then some, to produce notable excess above such, there is no evidence they are anywhere to be found.
Money is but a token to signal, ration, finite resource allocation, prices cannot rise arbitrarily high and allow for production above what the world is physically capable of producing. An attempt to increase prices above what the world can 'afford' will result in an attempt to unreasonably reallocate, divert, resources from the rest of the economy towards oil production, this will result in economic contraction and will be self defeating. The prices only have a viable range, and if within that range production can't match global demand at reasonable cost to producers the system will experience hardship.
Tanada wrote:So if you want to call peak how do you know it is peak? In the USA we peaked at the start of the 70's but in 2018 we are now exceeding that peak and setting new all time records of production. Certainly the USA is still consuming more than we produce, but we are importing several million barrels fewer a day than we were in 2005-08 and those bbls/d we do not buy are flowing in China and India who have ballooning private ICE vehicle fleets.
A quarter trillion debt ponzi scheme, while the fed provides the banks with zero interest to in turn give low interest to others. Yet what did it buy? A little more than a decade was bought, or are we expected to see shale still significantly increasing production into the 2030~s?
Most shale wells are said experience near 50% per year decline, bringing thousands upon thousands of wells rapidly online is no long term solution.
asg70 wrote:pstarr wrote:You do realize that maximum production occurs right before the peak?
Nobody really cares about statistical peak. They care about doom. At present climate change is a far more imminent threat than resource-scarcity.
Oil is not the only thing peaking. And real economic growth necessitates growth in energy production and consumption.
People say the american economy is peachy while homelessness is rapidly increasing in multiple cities, the retail apocalypse is going on(and online only has replaced a very small portion of the lost retail sales), many if not most americans are deeply in debt, the government debt is growing, many americans are 400$ away from being unable to make ends meet.
Skyrocketing debt, people defecating on the streets, record suicide levels lowering national lifespan, opioid crisis.
Cooked numbers don't hide what has been done. Zero interest by the fed for the previous years, vast loans, and credit cards being given like candy, don't hide the truth underneath.
Regards peak some say conventional peaked in 2006~.