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Global Warming / Climate Change is Hoax pt 10

Re: Has Global Warming Peaked?

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 06 Mar 2019, 09:58:33

I would like to see the evidence that the ice lost was recovered after the Medieval warming, especially at the North and South poles and how sea level was reduced, as well, after the warming was over.


Since the Younger Dryas Evident, about 11,000 years ago, sea levels have risen 450 feet. That has been an average increase of 0.49 inches a year. Sea levels have been going up because the ice has been melting. Because we are in an inter-glacial period that means that the ice will keep melting until the next ice age shows up, and that sea levels will keep rising until then. The last 10 inter-glacial periods have lasted about 10,000 years. Until the next ice age comes along sea levels will not be reduced. Water must get to 32° F to freeze, and it must stay below 32° F to stay frozen. When sea levels stop rising that will mean that it is going to be getting really, really cold, and it will most likely stay cold for about 100,000 years. Anyone who is looking forward to that is probably part penguin.
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Re: Has Global Warming Peaked?

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 06 Mar 2019, 13:20:10

rockdoc123 wrote:And it is equally tiresome to hear over and over about how if it is hot at some point on the surface then AGW is proven. :roll:


Tiresome...if you're a denier.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Has Global Warming Peaked?

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 06 Mar 2019, 13:33:47

Tiresome...if you're a denier.


Denying exactly what? Your pretty quick with the labeling but I suspect have zero idea what you are talking about.

It is tiresome if you are a scientist....the logic doesn't hold. If it isn't OK to reference cold regions as being important then it is equally not OK to reference warm regions as being important. You need to admit your bias here.
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Re: Has Global Warming Peaked?

Unread postby Cog » Wed 06 Mar 2019, 17:35:09

pstarr wrote:I am a proud Denier


You do have some redeeming qualities pstarr.
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Re: Has Global Warming Peaked?

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 06 Mar 2019, 17:39:25

I am a proud Denier


Is the world in the same cycle that it has been in for the last million years? 100,000 glacial, 10,000 interglacial. It all freezes, and then for a brief period it warms up. The heat loss the earth must experience to produce an ice age is billions of times what humans are yet capable of producing. Until we have a better understanding of what drives that cycle, we know nothing. We need to let our science develop without trying to nudge it one way, or the other to expedite short term political opportunities. How can a problem be solved if the problem is still unknown?

I don't know if these estimates are even close, but to be on the safe side if you see a termite, stomp on it. You may be saving the world.

Image

http://historyinfographics.com/termites ... l-warming/
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Re: Has Global Warming Peaked?

Unread postby clif » Thu 07 Mar 2019, 02:15:02

Heatwaves sweeping oceans ‘like wildfires’, scientists reveal


Global warming is gradually increasing the average temperature of the oceans, but the new research is the first systematic global analysis of ocean heatwaves, when temperatures reach extremes for five days or more.

The research found heatwaves are becoming more frequent, prolonged and severe, with the number of heatwave days tripling in the last couple of years studied. In the longer term, the number of heatwave days jumped by more than 50% in the 30 years to 2016, compared with the period of 1925 to 1954.

As heatwaves have increased, kelp forests, seagrass meadows and coral reefs have been lost. These foundation species are critical to life in the ocean. They provide shelter and food to many others, but have been hit on coasts from California to Australia to Spain.


https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/mar/04/heatwaves-sweeping-oceans-like-wildfires-scientists-reveal

Original article

Marine heatwaves threaten global biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0412-1
How cathartic it is to give voice to your fury, to wallow in self-righteousness, in helplessness, in self-serving self-pity.
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Re: Has Global Warming Peaked?

Unread postby clif » Thu 07 Mar 2019, 02:39:56

clif wrote:
The heat loss the earth must experience to produce an ice age is billions of times what humans are yet capable of producing.

We don't produce the heat, we help the atmosphere trap what comes from the sun by increasing greenhouse gasses. We also are triggering positive feedbacks where the earth because of the increased temp from our actions which allows more greenhouse gasses to escape ...... into the already heated atmosphere increasing the cycle of green house gas accumulation.

PS: here is the twitter feed of the non scientist you tried to quote but failed to upload his very slanted image;

https://twitter.com/@realGKnight


As for the termites, well they have been doing their thing long before humans showed up, and all through the ups and downs of temps during the human history termites have been eating wood and releasing very recent biospheric ground based carbon that was produced by plants from very recent (on historical time frames) sunlight, unlike humans which have been releasing carbon from very old decayed organic material that was produced by (from historical time fames) ancient sunlight.

In other words, it isn't activity based on carbon in organic material sunlight from the last couple of centuries, but the carbon from decayed organic material that was long buried from sunlight from millions of years ago which is tipping the balance out of whack from the Holocene into the Anthropocene ....

Do keep pushing non scientific ideas from very politically motivated deniers .... keeps the conservation at least interesting to see which non scientific claims you will come up with next,to deny the simple fact humans are changing the planet in ways that are not conductive to any large mammalian life including even us humans......
How cathartic it is to give voice to your fury, to wallow in self-righteousness, in helplessness, in self-serving self-pity.
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Re: Has Global Warming Peaked?

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 07 Mar 2019, 08:11:32

What I’ve observed from watching these denier threads is that the deniers, as a group, have no consistent view of how the Earth is changing or what processes are responsible. You can’t argue because there are as many positions as deniers.

So deniers here: I have a couple of questions for you:

1-Is Earth warming, stable or cooling?

2-What is your theory to support you position?
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Re: Has Global Warming Peaked?

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 07 Mar 2019, 11:10:51

What I’ve observed from watching these denier threads is that the deniers, as a group, have no consistent view of how the Earth is changing or what processes are responsible. You can’t argue because there are as many positions as deniers.


First of all, enough with the BS "denier" label OK? First of all, what is being denied?......that someone disagrees with a poor characterization of what is actually going on? ....that they disagree with what you think is some kind of collective opinion? Science doesn't work that way, never has, never will.

Secondly, if you bothered to actually look at the arguments being made by those who you keep labeling in an insulting manner, scientists who have been actively researching in various aspects of climate science for decades, you would find that they actually don't have some sort of all-encompassing theory. You do not need an alternative theory to criticize one that is made. That is how science works. Someone proposes a theory, others pick it apart and point out the shortcomings and the individual who proposed the original theory can choose to adjust his theory, abandon it and/or create a new one. The point being made is climate is very complex and is not well understood as researchers like Judith Curry point out continuously. If you bothered to read the masses of literature there is always a new paper that is stating some aspect of the climate system is apparently different than what was formerly thought. If it is complex then the time needs to be spent to fully understand all of the interactions, make sure models include all of the characterizations of the various variables and their interactions. Man-made contributions of greenhouse gas obviously have a contribution, nobody is arguing otherwise ...what is being argued is how much of a contribution. The "deniers" as you call them are not saying...."I have a better theory". What they are saying is the current theory is insufficient as has been demonstrated by the failure of models and projections and needs considerable more study not influenced by political machinations. Suggesting there is a consensus and that is all you need is anathema to proper scientific investigation as has been shown numerous times through history.
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Re: Has Global Warming Peaked?

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 07 Mar 2019, 12:07:13

I also get annoyed at being labeled a denier for questioning the accuracy of the consensus or pointing out how often the consensus has been totally wrong in the past.
But as to the question "Has global warming peaked?" I would not agree with that unless the worlds glaciers stopped retreading and began to gain total mass for a few years. They are an unbiased source untroubled by politics and not in need of a funding source or need to publish.
Of course they don't speak to what has caused the present warming trend or to solutions to the problem if in fact there are solutions.
I think anyone that considers that we at present we are extracting and burning coal oil and natural gas at a rate equivalent to 288 million barrels of oil/day (best figure I could get together on a clean piece of paper with goggle) and that at least a third of the energy in those fuels goes out into the atmosphere( 94mbpdX5.8e^6BTU/b) the idea that humans have not warmed the atmosphere is ridiculous. Then add in the green house effect of the CO2 in the exhaust gases and you compound the problem.
But then comes the problem of what if anything to do about it. Suddenly stop burning the fuel? The people first forced to do so would certainly go to war with whoever was forcing them to go first and any war today could escalate to nuclear conflict which wouldn't be good for the atmosphere ,and those that need to breath it, at all.
Switch to renewables? Fine but how fast can you do that? And consider that a big wind tower has some 250 tons of metallurgical coal incorporated in making the steel for it.
Pile on carbon taxes? Us congress can't get enough votes to raise the gas tax 25 cents over five years much less the $4 to $6 proposed for a carbon tax.
In the end there is not much we can do and much less that we will do except deal with the aftermath of what actually happens.
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Re: Has Global Warming Peaked?

Unread postby dissident » Thu 07 Mar 2019, 12:27:23

shortonoil wrote:
It was the result of massive deforestation of the continent.


So supposedly that refutes the situation that humans are pumping 550 quad BTU of heat into the environment each year by burning fossil fuels? 550 quad is enough energy to heat all of the world oceans 1° F every 32 years. So you are claiming that an addition of 550 quad BTU has no effect? I'll have to inform my coffee pot that it will no longer needed. Spring is coming and I'll be mowing the grass.


The hand drawn graph you posted has been debunked as a fake many times. Denier scammers love to amplify the magnitude to make it look like it was the same warming as we have today. This was not only not the case globally, but even regionally in Europe.

Image

When considering both hemisphere we get:

Image

http://www.antarctica.gov.au/magazine/2 ... ifferences

The Earth was following the expected cooling trend during an inter-glacial until the advent of industrialization. Once again, deniers deliberately ignore and obfuscate the term "global" to pimp their lies.

The amount of biomass burned in Europe during the medieval deforestation spasm was massive. More then enough to load the planetary boundary layer (PBL) with smoke aerosol for centuries. And aerosols in the PBL account for 8 C of the surface temperature. You can spout off your non sequitur BTU numbers all you want, but you merely show your utter ignorance of the science. The temperature is not maintained by direct heat emissions from combustion (as is also the case today, sunshine) but by the alteration of the radiative transfer properties of the atmosphere.
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Re: Has Global Warming Peaked?

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 07 Mar 2019, 12:37:32

Rockdoc123:

So what do you think is happening? What is your theory to explain it? Not just pointing to Judith Curry, who from my understaning does not deny AWG, she questions the degree and wants research in additional factors.
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Re: Has Global Warming Peaked?

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 07 Mar 2019, 12:48:34

VT,

One should always look at fresh science, and of course there is a lot of different opinions in the AWG tent, no doubt. And I don’t hear you as a “denier”.

I do think there are a lot who claim to be within the AWG tent who do take it as religion, and I don’t support that either. You and I will always be open to criticism as long as we take an opinion.

There is no doubt that tough decisions face us. What to do about it? There are many things that start to help, the GND is most assuredly not one of them. And AWG is only one of the problems we face; pollution, resource depletion, financialninsecurity, human migration etc. all interact and compound the problems.

So we should choose our solutions wisely, and they to make sure what we do does not have some nasty side effect on a different crisis. Some solutions appear simple: adopt Reduce, Reuse, Recycle. Simple, understandable, affordable, what’s not to love? Well it might put us into recession. Everything impacts everything else.

Perhaps at this point the best analogy is to an addict; there is no “no pain” solution. There is only a “less gross pain” path forward. And that’s not easy.
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Re: Has Global Warming Peaked?

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 07 Mar 2019, 13:33:34

To take the world's problems in the order I feel they should be ranked.
World population:
Possible solutions,
1. Educate every girl in the world to at least the eight grade. 2. Provide effective free or affordable birth control to every girl-woman for every year they are of child bearing age.3. End arraigned and child marriages worldwide.4. End subsidies and cost incentives to having more then two children.
Financial instability:
Possible solutions,
1. End deficit spending by any government agency anywhere in the world including during times of war. In the US cut federal salaries and or programs by whatever percentage it takes to reach a balanced budget each and every year. If not achieved Congress and executive branch gets zero pay.
2. Have families pay their bills in full once a year and live within their means. Homes and cars shall be worth more then owed at all times, no rolled over credit card balances etc. No such thing as a Jumbo mortgage.
3. End college loans. make colleges compete for available funds.
4. Take old college debt payable by paycheck withholding of 5% until paid.
Climate change:
Possible solutions,
2.Raise fuel taxes on regular pre announced schedule enough to rebuild infrastructure on pay as you go basis and subsidies build out of renewable carbon free energy.
3. Energize third world areas with wind and solar to begin with.
4. Replace every old nuclear plant with a new one and add as many as uranium supply can service.
Migration:
solution,
1. Fix the problems in the country they are migrating from.
2 Shoot to kill at the border. don't need a wall just a clear field of fire and some armed drones. Harsh I know but I'm afraid we will come to it in the end.
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Re: Has Global Warming Peaked?

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 07 Mar 2019, 14:20:28

Oil depletion is not yet a problem and is not likely to be for some years yet. Just when will depend on how much we switch away from fossil fuels and control the population problem.
Raising the fuel tax would help in that regard depletion or not.
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Re: Has Global Warming Peaked?

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 07 Mar 2019, 14:53:46

PSTARR,

That’s some pretty harsh words. Back it down a bit, take each day anew.
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Re: Has Global Warming Peaked?

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 07 Mar 2019, 17:41:53

Rockdoc123:

So what do you think is happening? What is your theory to explain it? Not just pointing to Judith Curry, who from my understaning does not deny AWG, she questions the degree and wants research in additional factors.


one of the reasons I pointed to Judith Curry in the first place is that my own opinion is somewhat attuned to hers. The whole premise of scientific research is someone proposes a theory based on various supporting factors, other scientists then pick it apart. If it fails that scrutiny the scientist who proposed the theory is expected to either adjust the theory to take into account shortcomings pointed out by critics or abandon the theory altogether and possibly arrive at something new. There is no requirement to have an alternative theory when criticizing a proposed theory, if there was science would never have advanced to where we are today. One of the problems with the current batch of global warming proponents is that when they are faced with criticisms about their supposed grand theory rather than go back and adjust it or completely abandon it they instead attack the critic ...usually using the word "denier" and then proceed to continue their proselytization in an echo chamber. This is not science, certainly not the way I learned it nor the way it was meant to be.

There is not enough work done at this point in time to allow someone to come up with a unifying theory for climate change that doesn't have tremendous holes in it. If that was not the case you would not see scads of papers appearing each year that point to inadequacies in models, measurements, assumptions as they apply to almost every area of the science. Of course, if all you read is certain self-serving blogs or certain news outlet releases you wouldn't be aware of all the uncertainty out there but it is there in the journals for those interested. This is why the research must continue. Curry points out that there is only superficial understanding of all the natural variation in climate with lots of controversy over the true impact of things such as AMO, PDO, etc. as the literature clearly shows. She also points to the very wide variation in ECS and TCS arrived at by more than a dozen authors over the past few years that can mean the difference between very marginal warming due to a doubling of CO2 to something quite impactful with no clear means of determining which is actually correct. To argue that the science is settled is simply to show ones own ignorance I'm afraid.
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Re: Has Global Warming Peaked?

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 07 Mar 2019, 20:57:00

That’s a whole lotta “I don’t know but you are wrong.”

It’s a nice little trick to put yourself in the cat bird seat so you can criticize anyone else at any time about anything without leaving yourself open to question.

Here’s some recommended reading material for you, since your keeping such an “open mind.”
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Re: Has Global Warming Peaked?

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 07 Mar 2019, 22:50:56

That’s a whole lotta “I don’t know but you are wrong.”

It’s a nice little trick to put yourself in the cat bird seat so you can criticize anyone else at any time about anything without leaving yourself open to question.


As I said a few times....that is the scientific process. It is called critiquing theory. In grad school it is honed into you that is one of your main tasks going forward. If you think science advances by a bunch of folks sitting around and nodding their heads up and down like some bobblehead or instead jumping up and down with pom poms and yelling "go team" then I'm afraid you to rethink that.

and as to your suggested reading list, thanks for that I suspect it has shaped your knowledge on the subject as it is. :roll:
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Re: Has Global Warming Peaked?

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 07 Mar 2019, 23:40:39

post1415254.html#p141525
Read the post by Dissudent who I am convinced is more equipped to render an informed opinion on AGW than you Rockdoc.
"There is not enough work done at this point in time to allow someone to come up with a unifying theory for climate  change"

stochastic definition:
randomly determined; having a random probability distribution or pattern that may be analyzed statistically but may not be predicted precisely.
Dissident correctly stated the science of CC is deterministic not stochastic
Dissident wrote "Accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere leads to fundamental climate change. "
They're is nothing ambiguous about that or undetermined. We also have a body of records and measurements from over a century that attest to changes in the ocean-atmosphere-land system that clearly show a rise in temperature and accumulation and increase in CO2 in the atmosphere.  The only serious uncertainties lie in  how fast and how much will climate change and real world data is informing us that worse case scenarios are showing to be more likely and that these extremes are constantly  being underestimated by the computer modeling. So whatever uncertainty does exist is invariably pointing to the climate system producing more extreme and faster changes than we had thought
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