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Peak oil debate

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 20 Dec 2018, 11:53:11

Revi wrote:How about the diesel shortage? Distillates in storage are at the bottom of their range in the US also. Are we headed for trouble? Here's an article about how diesel shortages are the "everything pin" which pops the everything bubble. Plausible?


First, there is already a thread dedicated to the topic you posted. You darn well know that because you REVI started that thread and I had to clarify the title!
Diesel fuel the Everything Pin

Secondly it is against the rules to post the same links to multiple threads to try and draw more attention. This place is down to a score of regular visitors and cluttering up the few remaining topics with multiple duplicates is really annoying in addition to being against the rules.

You already got the answer to your question on the thread you started, only the hard Doom crash crowd buys into the theory. For one thing while stocks are at a seasonally adjusted low, which is worrisome, production is also up, meaning more diesel fuel is being produced than normal and being sold immediately instead of passing into storage for a period first.

On top of that, with a lubricant additive which is abundant Kerosene is aka Diesel #1 and works fine in standard engines providing an economy penalty of 5%-10% depending on how well maintained the particular engine is and what kind of duty cycle it is preforming. Just about every diesel engine in Canada and Alaska at this time of year is burning winter blend (Diesel #2 plus Kerosene) or straight Diesel #1 (Kerosene plus lubrication additive). Worst case scenario we fly a little less and use the jet fuel as Diesel #1 by adding the lubricant to it.

BAU goes on and repeat posting of doom stories is not going to cause your fast crash scenario to happen. Consider this your informal warning to not cross post. You have been here a long time, you know how its supposed to work. If you could go out and recruit 100 new members then maybe we would be busy enough moderating to not notice such blatant violations by the old timers.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Pops » Thu 20 Dec 2018, 12:06:31

Revi, you and pstarr probably have the most sustainable setups of any still posting here. I'd love to hear what you guys are doing rather than argue over the import of the latest dot-O-doom.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Revi » Fri 21 Dec 2018, 11:52:47

Pops wrote:Revi, you and pstarr probably have the most sustainable setups of any still posting here. I'd love to hear what you guys are doing rather than argue over the import of the latest dot-O-doom.

I am just living my life nowadays. I plan on getting out of here if it gets bad. That's my new plan. We still have a maple syrup business and gardens, etc. I just don't see it holding up to the pressure of thousands of unprepared people when and if it gets bad. Sorry for posting the above link. I really didn't know it was not allowed to post on two threads.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 01 Feb 2019, 16:50:56

Oil Rises 18% In Best January On Record

That coupled with the great 300K jobs report would seem to indicate people can afford oil at current prices.

This could be Venezuela news. Nothing big on shortages, except forecasts for the coming years (which remains to be seen, of course). Higher prices far more likely than actual "shortages".
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Cog » Fri 01 Feb 2019, 18:09:19

If you have oil stocks or oil service company stocks, you are making some money.

Just saying. :P
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 03 Feb 2019, 09:57:32

Revi wrote:
Pops wrote:Revi, you and pstarr probably have the most sustainable setups of any still posting here. I'd love to hear what you guys are doing rather than argue over the import of the latest dot-O-doom.

I am just living my life nowadays. I plan on getting out of here if it gets bad. That's my new plan. We still have a maple syrup business and gardens, etc. I just don't see it holding up to the pressure of thousands of unprepared people when and if it gets bad. Sorry for posting the above link. I really didn't know it was not allowed to post on two threads.


Revi, you seem to live in a reasonably decent area for any kind of general economic malaise, slowdown, recession or whatever. A community full of people you know and seem to like, Maine has woods and streams and you don't live too close to a major population area. Where would you get out to? Generally speaking, when people are discussing getting out, they would appear to be referring to places just like where you live already? Without the advantages of history and being involved in the community BEFORE things go in the crapper. So..you plan on going deeper into the woods? The island along the coast you summer at on? Now THAT strikes me as quite a reasonable bolt hole, now you've got a moat and everything!
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 03 Feb 2019, 11:19:51

How quaint. It's lovely to see this the discussion veer into a good old fashioned bugout strategy.

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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Revi » Mon 04 Mar 2019, 15:00:14

I think bug in is a good idea around here, and maybe anywhere. Start to figure out people and places that could be useful. I don't think this is a particularly good place to go really. It's poor and cold and rocky, so it's not going to be very wonderful. It's a hard place to live now. Imagine it without much fossil fuel.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 04 Mar 2019, 17:44:45

Revi wrote:It's a hard place to live now. Imagine it without much fossil fuel.

And with the known many huge sources of fossil fuel, it's hard to imagine running out of them sooner than several decades. And that's without any technological improvements. Given the history of how resources have increased, even after extraction, due to better extraction and exploration methods due to better technology, it's pure lunacy to claim we'll come anywhere near running out of fossil fuels in the next several decades.

Not that facts, data, trends, etc. seem to affect the belief system of the "fast crash peakers".
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby EdwinSm » Tue 05 Mar 2019, 01:31:49

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Not that facts, data, trends, etc. seem to affect the belief system of the "fast crash peakers".


Soon after I came to this site, it was obvious even from all the Hubbert Bell Curve charts that there would be plenty of fuel after the Peak. However, given how the whole system is complex, there is the possibility that some part could break leading to a fast crash and leaving lots of fossil fuels in the ground.

I suppose what keeps me reading here (but not posting much) is the concern that a peaking in supplies could trigger a very fast moving economic/social crash as people start to panic and over-react. So in this case it is less about the geology of how much, and what grade of oil / gas / coal is out there, but how Mr Herd-mentality Wall Street, or Six-Pack Joe and Jane respond.

So a crash in my mind would be less from a slight contraction in energy supplies, but from people's over-reaction (hoarding, violence etc) to that event. And people's reactions are hard to predict.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 05 Mar 2019, 17:03:56

EdwinSm wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:Not that facts, data, trends, etc. seem to affect the belief system of the "fast crash peakers".


Soon after I came to this site, it was obvious even from all the Hubbert Bell Curve charts that there would be plenty of fuel after the Peak. However, given how the whole system is complex, there is the possibility that some part could break leading to a fast crash and leaving lots of fossil fuels in the ground.

I suppose what keeps me reading here (but not posting much) is the concern that a peaking in supplies could trigger a very fast moving economic/social crash as people start to panic and over-react. So in this case it is less about the geology of how much, and what grade of oil / gas / coal is out there, but how Mr Herd-mentality Wall Street, or Six-Pack Joe and Jane respond.

So a crash in my mind would be less from a slight contraction in energy supplies, but from people's over-reaction (hoarding, violence etc) to that event. And people's reactions are hard to predict.

But we've seen the effects of lower relative availability for decades, on and off. The 70's and the recent spike culminating in 2008 are two good examples. Prices went up. People who couldn't afford to burn so much burned less.

That isn't hard to predict.

As you say, there will be plenty of fuel after the peak (and everything won't peak simultaneously). So the idea that the peak will cause some sort of major social unrest, just doesn't hold much water, IMO. It might well lead to faster adoption to EV's of all kinds, which would be a good thing. Assuming we see peak before, say, 2040 or 50.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Revi » Wed 06 Mar 2019, 09:46:28

Outcast_Searcher wrote:But we've seen the effects of lower relative availability for decades, on and off. The 70's and the recent spike culminating in 2008 are two good examples. Prices went up. People who couldn't afford to burn so much burned less.

That isn't hard to predict.

As you say, there will be plenty of fuel after the peak (and everything won't peak simultaneously). So the idea that the peak will cause some sort of major social unrest, just doesn't hold much water, IMO. It might well lead to faster adoption to EV's of all kinds, which would be a good thing. Assuming we see peak before, say, 2040 or 50.

Here in fossil fuel land we don't see it as much, but in other places the fossil fuel tap turns off. What do you think the chances are of us being able to buy half our fuel for our cars when and if the dollar stops being the reserve currency?
We borrow about 10 bucks a day each, as our share of the deficit. That works out to about 3 gallons of gas.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby marmico » Wed 06 Mar 2019, 10:21:06

What do you think the chances are of us being able to buy half our fuel for our cars when and if the dollar stops being the reserve currency?


99.9% certainty. Zero net imports is in reach at current consumption levels.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... tntus2&f=m
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 06 Mar 2019, 14:52:35

Revi wrote:Here in fossil fuel land we don't see it as much, but in other places the fossil fuel tap turns off. What do you think the chances are of us being able to buy half our fuel for our cars when and if the dollar stops being the reserve currency?

Meanwhile, in the real world:

As I've pointed out, given the modern FX markets which trade around $5 trillion a DAY, in lots of currencies, anyone with means and a brain can have ANY net position in currencies they want. The "reserve" currency is an outdated, pre-modern computer network standard, obsolete for a couple of decades. But of course, it's great random FUD material for the economically clueless, including the fast crash doomers.

And:

U.S. crude oil production hit a record 12 million bpd in the week ending February 15, rising by 100,000 bpd from 11.9 million bpd in the previous week, the weekly EIA petroleum data showed as American production is growing faster than forecasts suggested just a few months ago.

In November 2018, the EIA estimated that U.S. crude oil production would exceed the 12-million-bpd mark in the second quarter of 2019. Earlier forecasts had showed that the 12-million-bpd threshold would be surpassed only in the fourth quarter of this year.


https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News ... n-Bpd.html

So much for the ETP bozo's forecasts, and the usual peaker mantra about how we're running out of oil, production is decreasing, yadda yadda.

Turns out, imperfect as they are, that outfits like the EIA and IEA, do a better job forecasting over time than random doomers, using unending dreams of doom as their forecasting data.

And the IEA and EIA are forecasting energy supplies to be quite good through 2040, or even 2050.

And within 3 decades or so, vehicle electrification will GREATLY reduce the total demand for global oil (even as the demand for petrochemicals grows globally) -- a reality the doomer crowd refuses to take seriously.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby tita » Thu 07 Mar 2019, 12:59:03

"And the IEA and EIA are forecasting energy supplies to be quite good through 2040, or even 2050."

Although I respect deeply the data collected by these agency, I don't have much consideration for their forecasts. They mostly do a statistical work based on past data and their long-term view consist of "things will be stay the same and follow current trends". In 2012, the eia had no clue on the LTO production we have today, their forecast was way lower than it is.

Even on the short term view it is unreliable. Last october, the weekly estimates for US supply were 500kb/d lower than the monthly report.

Just taken from their AEO 2012:
Image Image

Also, in 2012, world supply in 2018 was forecasted at 94.82 Mb/d (from 89.52 Mb/d), while it is estimated at 99.93 now.

If they can be wrong that way, then they also can be wrong the other way, which happens in their forecasts.

Of course, I don't have more clue than they have. The whole point of the peak oil debate is that nobody is really able to do an accurate forecast. The whole dynamic of the oil industry is extremely complex.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 13 Mar 2019, 15:23:03

Edwin – “I suppose what keeps me reading here (but not posting much) is the concern that a peaking in supplies could trigger a very fast moving economic/social crash as people start to panic and over-react”. Which again is why I still drag the ole POD occasionally. We’ve had multiple economic downturns long before today. Lots of explanations for the cause of 60+ million losing their lives as a result of WWII. But many historians point to the POD as a significant factor. The US oil embargo of Japan certain gave its military significant control over its political process.

And as of today we have obviously not gone beyond global PO. Of course, eventually we’ll pass GPO. But at that point the question will be the demand for oil and has it declined. IOW have we adjusted our demand for oil by changing our consumption dynamic by new technology, conservation or some other “magic bullet”? I don’t bother try to make such predictions: much too distant in the future and far too many “what ifs”. But IMHO too many folks anticipate greater global economic problems post-GPO then we’ve seen pre-GPO: I don’t see that as a given. Which doesn’t mean continuous good times in the future. Just means perhaps no worse times then we’ve seen in the past. And some folks have had terrible times in the past. Just as some are experiencing today.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 14 Mar 2019, 18:15:31

US. Oil Production Is Headed For A Quick Decline


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/U ... cline.html
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Pops » Thu 14 Mar 2019, 20:55:30

EdwinSm wrote:So a crash in my mind would be less from a slight contraction in energy supplies, but from people's over-reaction (hoarding, violence etc) to that event. And people's reactions are hard to predict.

One of the site's founding member's favorite lines was "don't fear PO, fear people's reaction." Having said that, I am actually old enough to remember the embargoes in 74, and though the lines got hot, and the economy was crap, there weren't too many running gun battles at the local full-serve that I remember. 2007 and even 2009 was pretty rough economically too, but there were, disappointingly for some, few excuses to pull out the trusty black plastic phallus rifle to put down rioting socialists down on the corner.

The biggest thing helping me sleep is the falling cost of PV & wind; the increasing efficiencies of everything from windows to light bulbs to heat pumps; and the current vogue in CC activism. No denying that I'm a Luddite, still I admit that technology is continuing to improve and much faster than I guessed in the long ago. Even all the wrenches that can be thrown into the works by the current administration to protect the 19th century monopolies of his MaraLago capos aside (strangely cheered on by clueless "anti-elite" plebs) won't upset the trend for long.

But look, the old adage is "oil is priced on the margin" IOW, the bid for the last barrel at the auction is the price for every barrel at the auction. And as short so many times informed us, every barrel has the same energy as every similar grade ever sold, so the more buyers who want some (including oil producers themselves) the higher the price will go, to the extent they can afford for the utility they recieve.

Upshot is the price simply can't go higher than the energy is worth in its highest and best use at the volume produced. So the mitigation is to either have plenty of money for your needs or make sure your needs are small enough for the money you have.

Whatever you do, don't be mislead into thinking the price of oil will fall as the energy required to produce oil increases. Remember, every barrel has just the same energy it ever did, and you are in effect bidding against the oil producers themselves along with every other consumer for that last barrel. It is ludicrous to think that in a constrained market the price would fall.

So anyway, renewables don't need to ramp up to replace all the oil overnight, just the shortfall for tonight. IEA says FF consumers received $300 billion in subsidies in 2017, US maybe $26 billion. Coincidentally, the global investment in RE last year was... $330 billion!! So we could easily, with no additional taxes, double the investment over night simply by eliminating FF subsidies.*
*theoretically anyway LOL

I don't give Global Systemic Apocalypse zero possibility, but my Doom-O-Meter is at a much more relaxed attitude than 5, 10 or 20 years ago.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Revi » Tue 19 Mar 2019, 09:04:29

I am not as worried about the whole world system crashing. I am a bit concerned about the US. We don't seem to have much of a plan for living with less fossil fuel. We have gigantic cars, electricity use is crazy, and we don't want to consider living like the rest of the world (or even western Europe, where they live just fine). I think we may be brought down to their standard, and it's not going to be fun. Driving around in trucks that get about the same mileage as school busses can't be sustainable. I think we're going to be in trouble with just a little bump in interest rates, or the price of gas in this country. Imagine if there is an actual supply problem.
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Re: Peak oil debate

Unread postby Pops » Wed 20 Mar 2019, 11:58:24

Revi you have been talking about the likely next problem for a while, pstarr as well.

IEA guesses all liquids will experience "natural decline" of 45mbd thru 2025. With continued investment in existing production we can replace some of that decline ("reserve growth") leaving us short "only" 27.5mbd. Add in 7mbd of demand growth and someone needs to come up with an additional 35mbd of brand new production between '17 & '25.

IEA thinks about 11mbd of that is in development. Then they insert the obligatory "miracle occurs here" function to the equation:
Around 16 billion barrels of new conventional crude oil resources in new projects are approved each year in the New Policies Scenario between 2017 and 2025: these provide around 13 mb/d additional production in 2025.


Not sure where that comes from as it isn't LTO (more on that in a minute) and instead of conventional growing the 16 billion barrels per year they are forecasting, it's grown around 8Bb/y since 2010 — and the growth is declining as more investment is made on LTO.

LTO shale is forecast by grow 4-5mbd by 2025.... unless conventional doesn't grow, in which cast it needs to grow by an additional 7mbd to a total of 11mbd. . . that's a new Russia in 6 years!

Could happen, I quit saying can't. But Revi and pstarr have been talking about what is likely to be the problem even if the US gushes LTO, or rather, especially if LTO booms: the mismatch between demand and supply. US refineries had been retooling for years in expectation of dwindling light and increasing heavy oil. Now Venezuela and Mexico are in the pit and LTO is surging. Diesel demand is growing, gasoline demand & ethylene demand is saturated — China doesn't even take our recycling any more (trump had something to do with this of course but no one here seems able to make a profit recycling plastic either because raw poly is so cheap).

Lifting the export ban was a good thing, it helped spread the LTO around so that everyone can make plastic shit to backfill the oceans with. But an additional 11mbd? That's a lot of gasoline and plastic straws.

So the upshot may be
• A price crunch for the frackers as demand for LTO is constrained.
• Higher prices for conventional (read that medium and heavy weight oil)
• Big refinery upgrades to do whatever they need to do to "cook" LTO into longer strands.

That is IF LTO can replace 75% annual decline PLUS grow the expected 4.5mbd AND 7mbd more if conventional refuses to grow.

And if LTO can't grow that much or Conventional begins to fall?

.
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