Cid_Yama wrote:But, would it be scalable to what would be needed?
Recent research results show that an atmospheric hole over the tropical West Pacific is reinforcing ozone depletion in the polar regions and could have a significant influence on the climate of the Earth.
An international team of researchers headed by Potsdam scientist Dr. Markus Rex from the German Alfred Wegener Institute has discovered a previously unknown atmospheric phenomenon over the South Seas. Over the tropical West Pacific there is a natural, invisible hole extending over several thousand kilometres in a layer that prevents transport of most of the natural and manmade substances into the stratosphere by virtue of its chemical composition. Like in a giant elevator, many chemical compounds emitted at the ground pass thus unfiltered through this so-called "detergent layer" of the atmosphere. Scientists call it the "OH shield". The newly discovered phenomenon over the South Seas boosts ozone depletion in the polar regions and could have a significant influence on the future climate of the Earth – also because of rising air pollution in South East Asia.
At first Dr. Markus Rex suspected a series of flawed measurements. In October 2009 the atmospheric physicist from the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI) was on board the German research vessel "Sonne" to measure trace substances in the atmosphere in the tropical West Pacific. Tried and tested a thousand times over, the ozone probes he sent up into the tropical sky with a research balloon every 400 kilometres reported – nothing. Or to be more accurate: almost nothing. The ozone concentrations in his measurements remained nearly constantly below the detection limit of approx. 10 ppbv* in the entire vertical range from the surface of the Earth to an altitude of around 15 kilometres. Normally ozone concentrations in this part of the atmosphere are three to ten times higher.
Although low values at an altitude of around 15 kilometres were known from earlier measurements in the peripheral area of the tropical West Pacific, the complete absence of ozone at all heights was surprising. However, after a short period of doubt and various tests of the instruments it dawned on the worldwide recognised ozone specialist that he might be onto a phenomenon yet unknown to science. A few research years later and after the involvement of other colleagues came confirmation: Markus Rex and his team on board the "Sonne" had tracked down a giant natural hole over the tropical South Seas, situated in a special layer of the lower atmosphere known as the "OH shield". The research results on the newly discovered OH minimum will be published soon in the journal "Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics", with the Institute of Environmental Physics of the University of Bremen and other international research institutions as partners.
"Even though the sky appears to be an extensively uniform space for most people, it is composed of chemically and physically very different layers," Markus Rex explains the complex makeup of the atmosphere. The air layers near the ground contain hundreds or even thousands of chemical compounds. This is why winter and spring, mountains and sea, city and forests all have a distinct smell. The great majority of these substances are broken down into water-soluble compounds in the lower kilometres of the atmosphere and are subsequently washed out by rain. Since these processes require the presence of a certain chemical substance, the so called hydroxyl (=OH) radical, this part of the atmosphere is called the "OH shield". It acts like a huge atmospheric washing machine in which OH is the detergent.
The OH shield is part of the troposphere, as the lower part of the atmosphere is called. "Only a few, extremely long-lived compounds manage to make their way through the OH shield," says Rex, "then they also get through the tropopause and enter the stratosphere." Tropopause refers to the boundary layer between the troposphere and the next atmospheric layer above it, the stratosphere. Particularly substances that enter the stratosphere unfold a global impact. The reason for this is that once they have reached the stratosphere, their degradation products remain up there for many years and spread over the entire globe.
Extremely long-lived chemical compounds find their way to the stratosphere, even where the OH shield is intact. These include methane, nitrous oxide ("laughing gas"), halons, methyl bromide and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), which are notorious as "ozone killers" because they play a major role in ozone depletion in the polar regions.
"We have to realise," reminds the Potsdam atmospheric physicist, "that chemical compounds which enter the stratosphere always have a global impact." Thanks to the OH hole that the researchers discovered over the tropical Pacific, greater amounts of brominated hydrocarbons can reach the stratosphere than in other parts of the world. Although their ascent takes place over the tropical West Pacific, these compounds amplify ozone depletion in the polar regions. Since scientists identified this phenomenon and took it into account in the modelling of stratospheric ozone depletion, their models have corresponded excellently with the actually measured data.
Very strong atmospheric methane growth in the four years 2014‐2017: Implications for the Paris Agreement (doi.org/10.1029/2018GB006009)
.... The climate warming impact of the observed methane increase over the past decade, if continued at >5 ppb/yr in the coming decades, is sufficient to challenge the Paris Agreement, which requires sharp cuts in the atmospheric methane burden.....Methane's increase since 2007 was not expected in future greenhouse gas scenarios compliant with the targets of the Paris Agreement
Plantagenet wrote:Looks like the world is on track to meet and even exceed the commitments made in the Paris accords to INCREASE CO2 (and CH4) emission
The new Study
Published within the AGU Global Biogeochemical Cycles on 5th February and titled “Very strong atmospheric methane growth in the four years 2014‐2017: Implications for the Paris Agreement“, it lays out the details of what has been happening …
The rise in atmospheric methane (CH4), which began in 2007, accelerated in the past four years. The growth has been worldwide, especially in the tropics and northern mid‐latitudes. With the rise has come a shift in the carbon isotope ratio of the methane. The causes of the rise are not fully understood, and may include increased emissions and perhaps a decline in the destruction of methane in the air. Methane’s increase since 2007 was not expected in future greenhouse gas scenarios compliant with the targets of the Paris Agreement, and if the increase continues at the same rates it may become very difficult to meet the Paris goals. There is now urgent need to reduce methane emissions, especially from the fossil fuel industry.
What exactly has been happening?
In the 1990s, the atmospheric methane burden trended towards quilibrium, which it reached by the end of the 20th century, with little or no growth in its atmospheric burden in the early years of this century. In 1984, the first year with detailed records, the global annual average atmospheric mole fraction of methane in the remote marine boundary layer was 1645 ppb. In 2006, just before the recent growth phase began, it was about 1775 ppb. This then grew rapidly to an annual global mean of 1850 ppb in 2017, a total rise of about 75 ppb in the 2007-2017 period. That increase is continuing.
Why is it increasing, where is it all coming from?
We don’t fully understand what is happening, but there are three ideas discussed within the new study …
An increase in the proportion of global emissions from microbial sources (wetlands) may have driven the increase
Or … a strong rise in methane emissions from the use of natural gas and oil has taken place.
Or … the oxidative capacity –the cleansing power -of the atmosphere has declined, and hence the destruction of methane has slowed. Even if total emissions have changed little or (less likely) even decreased, the observed increased can be explained by this.
It need not be a binary choice. Some or all of the above may together explain it.
The uptick is a surprise and a shock
Although methane’s apparent equilibration in the early years of this century was perhaps only a temporary pause in the human-induced increase in atmospheric methane, the renewed strong methane growth that began in 2007 was so unexpected that it was not considered in pathway models preparatory to the Paris Agreement.
The current growth has now lasted over a decade. If growth continues at similar rates through subsequent decades, evidence presented within the new study demonstrates that the extra climate warming impact of this methane can significantly negate or even reverse progress in climate mitigation from reducing CO2 emissions. This will challenge efforts to meet the target of the 2015 UN Paris Agreement on Climate Change, to limit climate warming to 2°C.
Regardless of why this is happening, the observational fact is huge news, and yet will probably also not attract the attention needed.
“However, that does not look so simple any more. We don’t know exactly what is happening.
“Perhaps emissions are growing or perhaps the problem is due to the fact that our atmosphere is losing its ability to break down methane.
“Either way we are facing a very worrying problem. That is why it is so important that we unravel what is going on – as soon as possible.”
Further Reading
Nature (6th Feb 2019) – Tropical Africa could be a key to solving methane mystery
Armed with an aeroplane loaded with sampling equipment, UK scientists have taken the most detailed measurements yet of the methane in the skies over tropical Africa. The data should help researchers to understand a mysterious spike in atmospheric concentrations of the powerful greenhouse gas, which began in 2007.
The flights started in Uganda in January and ended this week in Zambia. Researchers sampled methane emissions emanating from papyrus swamps, burning farm fields and flatulent livestock. Early results confirm that Africa is playing a major, yet poorly documented, role in the global methane cycle, with enormous consequences for the global climate.
The above field trip is being led by Euan Nisbet. He is also the lead author of the newly published study.
Stratocumulus clouds cover 20% of the low-latitude oceans and are especially prevalent in the subtropics. They cool the Earth by shading large portions of its surface from sunlight. However, as their dynamical scales are too small to be resolvable in global climate models, predictions of their response to greenhouse warming have remained uncertain. Here we report how stratocumulus decks respond to greenhouse warming in large-eddy simulations that explicitly resolve cloud dynamics in a representative subtropical region. In the simulations, stratocumulus decks become unstable and break up into scattered clouds when CO_2 levels rise above 1,200 ppm. In addition to the warming from rising CO_2 levels, this instability triggers a surface warming of about 8 K globally and 10 K in the subtropics. Once the stratocumulus decks have broken up, they only re-form once CO_2 concentrations drop substantially below the level at which the instability first occurred. Climate transitions that arise from this instability may have contributed importantly to hothouse climates and abrupt climate changes in the geological past. Such transitions to a much warmer climate may also occur in the future if CO_2 levels continue to rise.
Since 2007 atmospheric methane concentrations have risen strongly; average rate 7 ppb per year. Methane’s Global-Warming Potential multiplies warming vs. CO2 by 34x, 86x, and 150-200x on time scales of 100 years, 20 years, and a few years, respectively. Total radiative forcing of methane is rapidly catching that of CO2, making Paris targets nearly impossible to reach without emergency actions. Continuing on last video, I chat on latest methane science; spatial and temporal variation, isotopic changes, emission locations, etc...
clif wrote:Thanks for the WEATHER report from Calgary,
However it is NOT a climate report for the planet though.............................................................................
clif wrote:Thanks for the WEATHER report from Calgary,
When does that planet climate report come out, I don’t see it mentioned here often?
Even factoring in the cold snap, <b>California is still warmer than average</b>, and swings between periods of severe winter rainstorms and profound drought will probably become more pronounced in the future because of climate change, said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at UCLA.
The first month of 2019 was characterized by warmer-than-average conditions across much of the world's surface. The most notable warm temperature anomalies were present across much of Australia and across parts of northeastern and southwestern Asia, where temperature departures from average were 4.0°C (7.2°F) above average or higher. Record warm January surface temperatures were present across much of Australia and its surrounding Southern Ocean, southern Brazil, the ocean off the south coast of South Africa, and across parts of Africa, Asia, and the southeastern Pacific Ocean. Notable cool temperature departures from average were present across parts of northern North America, Europe, and central Asia, where temperatures were 1.0°C (1.8°F) below average or cooler. According to our analysis, no land or ocean surface had record cold January temperatures.
According to our analysis, no land or ocean surface had record cold January temperatures. Averaged as a whole, the January 2019 global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.88°C (1.58°F) above the 20th century average and tied with 2007 as the third highest temperature since global records began in 1880.
The combined effect of climate change and an evolving El Niño could make 2019 the hottest year ever.
The past three years, from 2015 to 2017, were the warmest ever recorded. And although the current year started off with a moderate La Niña phenomenon—which generally has a cooling effect on global climate—it is going to end up being the fourth warmest year, clearly showing a warming trend.
In fact, the 20 warmest years on record have occurred in the last 22 years. This trend also sits in perfectly with the emission rates of greenhouse gases (GHGs), which were at a record high in 2018 according to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).
clif wrote:When does that planet climate report come out, I don’t see it mentioned here often?
Well for that you have to do a little work, not try using ONE small weather report to show how much a denier you are.
From one of the articles YOU linked which you obviously hadn't read fully;Even factoring in the cold snap, <b>California is still warmer than average</b>, and swings between periods of severe winter rainstorms and profound drought will probably become more pronounced in the future because of climate change, said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at UCLA.
You check out sites like this;The first month of 2019 was characterized by warmer-than-average conditions across much of the world's surface. The most notable warm temperature anomalies were present across much of Australia and across parts of northeastern and southwestern Asia, where temperature departures from average were 4.0°C (7.2°F) above average or higher. Record warm January surface temperatures were present across much of Australia and its surrounding Southern Ocean, southern Brazil, the ocean off the south coast of South Africa, and across parts of Africa, Asia, and the southeastern Pacific Ocean. Notable cool temperature departures from average were present across parts of northern North America, Europe, and central Asia, where temperatures were 1.0°C (1.8°F) below average or cooler. According to our analysis, no land or ocean surface had record cold January temperatures.
According to our analysis, no land or ocean surface had record cold January temperatures. Averaged as a whole, the January 2019 global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.88°C (1.58°F) above the 20th century average and tied with 2007 as the third highest temperature since global records began in 1880.
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201901
Or you read something like this;
<b>Why 2019 is Set to Be the Warmest Year Ever</b>The combined effect of climate change and an evolving El Niño could make 2019 the hottest year ever.
The past three years, from 2015 to 2017, were the warmest ever recorded. And although the current year started off with a moderate La Niña phenomenon—which generally has a cooling effect on global climate—it is going to end up being the fourth warmest year, clearly showing a warming trend.
In fact, the 20 warmest years on record have occurred in the last 22 years. This trend also sits in perfectly with the emission rates of greenhouse gases (GHGs), which were at a record high in 2018 according to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).
https://weather.com/en-IN/india/news/ne ... -rise-2019
But I guess it is easier to google looking for stories about WEATHER which meet your preselected views eh?
global temperatures have peaked and are cooling down so the “runaway” has currently stopped, no denying the data.
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