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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 26 Feb 2019, 19:47:55

Cog wrote:Recessions are a normal part of the capitalist system. An end of the world Mad Max scenario you guys go on about is not. I've yet to see any cornies here argue that a recession is impossible. But there are no signs of one right now. If a recession occurs, it won't be the end of the world. I've lived through several of them already.



We’ve never entered a recession with historic low interest rates and these historic debt and deficit numbers. We are in uncharted waters
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 26 Feb 2019, 21:13:24

We’ve never entered a recession with historic low interest rates and these historic debt and deficit numbers. We are in uncharted waters


Nor a possible US vs Chinese & Russian military confrontation over Venezuela, nor Peak Oil.

Then there are a number of very good arguments that we never left the 2007 recession to begin with. World GDP has not grown any faster than CB money printing, and the CB have to keep printing to prevent the bond market from imploding. Most of those bonds are now backed by asset classes with negative returns.

Other than that; what problem?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Cog » Thu 28 Feb 2019, 08:35:38

Sorry folks, no crash in sight. 4th Quarter 2018 GDP 2.6% versus 1.8% estimated. Not great but I'll take it.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 28 Feb 2019, 09:06:46

This bear rally is starting to get long in the tooth and reaching resistance. Forward earnings are tanking with global imports and exports. Trump walked away from a NoKo deal and a trade deal with China would take 5 to 10 years to implement as it would have to pass Chinese law. Politics is just soooooo sloooooow.

But then again...Viva America! America keeps on surprising to the up side.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Cog » Thu 28 Feb 2019, 09:07:58

You really don't understand what a bear rally is do you?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 28 Feb 2019, 10:17:52

2018 GDP growth financed by 1.27 trillion debt. The Ponzi scheme continues. We are creating the most debt in US history. Each year breaks the previous years record.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 28 Feb 2019, 10:34:22

Technically a bear market is a 20 percent drop from the high and a bear market rally is the the correction to the up side.

So...if we are in s bear market rally (in both stocks and oil) then the crash is just around the corner.

I really wish I'm wrong.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 28 Feb 2019, 10:46:13

Some of the smarter traders are saying that now is the time to take as much debt as you can and place it in equities. If the stock market goes up: You win. If the stock market collapses and we all die: No one is going to collect that debt.

:)
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Cog » Thu 28 Feb 2019, 13:01:38

Yoshua wrote:I really wish I'm wrong.


Your wish will be granted.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 28 Feb 2019, 14:16:31

shortonoil wrote:
We’ve never entered a recession with historic low interest rates and these historic debt and deficit numbers. We are in uncharted waters


Nor a possible US vs Chinese & Russian military confrontation over Venezuela, nor Peak Oil.

Yes, let's pretend THIS time is different, re bad peak oil predictions from clowns.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 28 Feb 2019, 14:21:00

Yoshua wrote:Some of the smarter traders are saying that now is the time to take as much debt as you can and place it in equities. If the stock market goes up: You win. If the stock market collapses and we all die: No one is going to collect that debt.

:)

Would you care to offer CREDIBLE citations?

Or is it the usual, making stuff up fare you love to indulge in?

How do you determine "smarter" traders, when you're clueless about economics, BTW?

And of course, now we've gone from a correction (what happened in '18, to a "crash", to "we're all going to die". Well, yes, we're all going to die someday. But how will a "crash" kill us all? More random wishful thinking?

Hint: Crashes (but not as often as corrections doomers call crashes) happen a lot over time. It's inconvenient. Inconvenience isn't death.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 28 Feb 2019, 14:27:48

Cog wrote:
Yoshua wrote:I really wish I'm wrong.


Your wish will be granted.


Fucking perma bull.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 28 Feb 2019, 15:57:03

Yoshua wrote:
Cog wrote:
Yoshua wrote:I really wish I'm wrong.


Your wish will be granted.


Fucking perma bull.

As if being a perma-bear, and being wrong over time on the stock market to the tune of 7%, including dividends, AFTER inflation, gave the doomers something to crow about.

Whining won't change the long term reality. Given your choice of language and the COC, I do think there's a reason certain perma-bears/doomers tend to get banned repeatedly, however.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 28 Feb 2019, 16:25:16

shortonoil wrote:
We’ve never entered a recession with historic low interest rates and these historic debt and deficit numbers. We are in uncharted waters.


Your usual disingenuous bull crap. That was never said by shortonoil. That was quoted from pstarr. Do your lying skills come naturally, or do you have to polish them up from time to time. Anything this turd says is most likely, and intentional an outright lie. Sleaze. But it is too late, dumbbell, the world already knows that we are at Peak. Call your masters and find out what you’re are suppose to concoct next. No doubt about it, it will be a dozy.

Which poses the question of how will the world's primary producers react. OPEC is already falling apart, and Russia doesn't seem to be interested in being MBS's bat boy any longer. Will they cut production, and wait for the inevitable price rise, or will they pump like crazy to get rid of their oil before the economy collapses and no wants it? If they try to wait it out they are likely to wind up with a roster of stranded assets? Do they try to over pump their fields and destroy what remains just to get rid of what they can? If one goes one way, and the other the other, it is going to be one big mess in a hurry. Peak is likely to wind up as some scenario that we can't even begin to imagine.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Cog » Thu 28 Feb 2019, 17:11:33

If you were paying attention OPEC already cut production to prop up prices. But you would have to be paying attention instead of bloviating.

As far as this being a bear rally, not at all. The Dow has practically retraced itself to match where it was before this last correction. A typical bear rally doesn't do that. Look back to the 2007-2009 time frame and you can see what a bear rally does on its way to the low in Feb 2009.

Now if you ask me if the market is going up or down tomorrow, couldn't tell you. But the deal is no one can time the market or predict its direction. If they say they can, they are fools. But you do get hints by looking at quarterly profits/earnings and make you best guess from there. I know doomers hate to look at such things.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 28 Feb 2019, 18:25:13

Caveat in US GDP

"The Bureau emphasized that the fourth-quarter initial estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency"

bea.gov/news/2019/init…


It did seem a little suspicious considering all the horrible economic numbers lately
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Cog » Thu 28 Feb 2019, 18:38:40

All GDP estimates are revised after the first release. You should know that and its certainty nothing new. Sometimes they move a tenth of a point up or down.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 28 Feb 2019, 19:51:55

Cog wrote:All GDP estimates are revised after the first release. You should know that and its certainty nothing new. Sometimes they move a tenth of a point up or down.



Of coarse, but this one says it’s based on incomplete data. They are just throwing crap out there.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby kublikhan » Thu 28 Feb 2019, 20:37:09

shortonoil wrote:
shortonoil wrote:
We’ve never entered a recession with historic low interest rates and these historic debt and deficit numbers. We are in uncharted waters.
Your usual disingenuous bull crap. That was never said by shortonoil. That was quoted from pstarr. Do your lying skills come naturally, or do you have to polish them up from time to time. Anything this turd says is most likely, and intentional an outright lie. Sleaze.
Actually he never attributed that quote to you. The quote he attributed to you was your response to that quote: "Nor a possible US vs Chinese & Russian military confrontation over Venezuela, nor Peak Oil." See:

shortonoil wrote:
We’ve never entered a recession with historic low interest rates and these historic debt and deficit numbers. We are in uncharted waters
Nor a possible US vs Chinese & Russian military confrontation over Venezuela, nor Peak Oil.
That quote within a quote means you were quoting someone else. You were wrong short. And while we are on the subject of misattributing quotes, the original quote was in fact not from pstarr. It was from Armageddon. By your own logic, are you now a lying sleaze?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 01 Mar 2019, 01:35:25

It would be interesting to see what would happen if everyone else stopped posting in this thread because we're witnessing a 24/7 love-fest between Armageddon and Short. The two of them should get a room together to consummate their relationship because they are effectively crowding out everyone else with their machine-gun postings.
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ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!
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