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The time .... has arrived.

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Cog » Fri 01 Feb 2019, 19:15:42

Someone has highjacked copious abundance's account or he is ripping off the original.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 01 Feb 2019, 19:27:05

Just think Cog, if you were as smart as me you'd know when to get bullish and when to get bearish. :razz:

You shoulda gotten bullish back in 2010 and 2011 when you were still a doomer. Now it's too late! :twisted:
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby marmico » Sat 02 Feb 2019, 13:09:50

Why in the world would someone pick a 19 week exponential moving average?

Cherry picking lagging indicator data at its finest, is my guess.

The latest leading indicator data from ISM PMI manufacturing:

“The past relationship between the PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the PMI® for January (56.6 percent) corresponds to a 4-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis,”
https://www.instituteforsupplymanagemen ... .cfm?SSO=1

I guess the economy will grow 2% SAAR in Q1, 2019.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sat 02 Feb 2019, 16:28:00

As the guy noted, he backtested his methodology going all the way back to 1948.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 02 Feb 2019, 19:11:59

copious.abundance wrote:As the guy noted, he backtested his methodology going all the way back to 1948.

OK, so now you're sounding like Armageddon. Find something that might signal a recession and tout it.

OK.

So even if there is a recession, US, global, or both, so what? Recessions are perfectly normal and natural things.

Are you trying to claim that you now are an accurate predictor of big economic trends? If so, will selling newsletters like shorty be next?

Given the track record for pretty much all charts in general, in terms of being able to make money vs. buy and hold INCLUDING THE EXTRA TRADING AND RESEARCH EXPENSES for short term trading, it will take a lot to convince me to listen to person X's trading advice. Especially when you consider that the grand self proclaime "expert" chartists, the Elliot Wave clowns (See Robert Prechter results on Guru Grades, CXO Advisory -- worst of all the "gurus") are absolutely terrible, re accuracy. Somehow, 20%ish accuracy doesn't impress me.

MANY economic commentators think there might be a recession in 2019 or 2020. Last I saw, a recent survey of economists gave 2019 a 26% chance. How is that more helpful than tossing coins or ignoring the noise?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sat 02 Feb 2019, 19:20:47

There are other models out there signalling that a recession is getting pretty close.

I'll keep y'all updated in this thread. :)
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 02 Feb 2019, 19:38:43

copious.abundance wrote:There are other models out there signalling that a recession is getting pretty close.

I'll keep y'all updated in this thread. :)


Fine. What do you propose we DO with that information?

We know what the fast crash doomers will do -- same as they always do.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Cog » Sat 02 Feb 2019, 19:48:24

If he says buy gold and a newsletter, we will know. LOL
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 02 Feb 2019, 20:37:45

The world’s mounting debt crisis must solved before it blows up in our face

The lack of an exit strategy from the monetary excess is catching up with the worldThe QE largesse did not go into investment and consumption but it did prop up financial institutions that were swaying on the edge of the abyss



https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-f ... s-our-face
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Ibon » Sat 02 Feb 2019, 21:27:45

onlooker wrote:[b] The world’s mounting debt crisis must solved before it blows up in our face



Like so many things these days the solution is when it blows up in our face.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 02 Feb 2019, 21:42:16

Ibon wrote:
onlooker wrote:[b] The world’s mounting debt crisis must solved before it blows up in our face



Like so many things these days the solution is when it blows up in our face.

Agreed
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 03 Feb 2019, 11:25:38

Outcast_Searcher wrote:We know what the fast crash doomers will do -- same as they always do.


Yep.

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HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sun 03 Feb 2019, 19:33:07

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Fine. What do you propose we DO with that information?

Anything you want to. Including nothing, if you so desire.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby marmico » Thu 21 Feb 2019, 10:10:08

The Conference Board LEI did not turn down in January 2019, flat since October 2018.
https://www.conference-board.org/pdf_fr ... 202019.pdf
The time....has not arrived.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 22 Feb 2019, 20:04:05

Oh it has.
43% of U.S. households can’t afford the basics
https://bigthink.com/brandon-weber/offi ... 1550731842
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Ibon » Sat 23 Feb 2019, 06:56:53

onlooker wrote:Oh it has.
43% of U.S. households can’t afford the basics
https://bigthink.com/brandon-weber/offi ... 1550731842



On that article:

It's a staggering 43% of U.S. households that can't afford the basics such as food, child care, health care, transportation, and a cell phone.


I was reflecting on this and thinking about the huge differences in how economies function around the world and how one adapts. Comparing the above basics to here in Panama. A typical annual salary is under $ 5,000


Food: I do the food shopping when in town for our staff and I know their consumption habits. Weekly food costs are around $ 25. No packaged or processed food here, rice, corn, beans, flour, plaintain bananas, 5 lbs of chicken, eggs, maybe a can of sardines or condensed milk. I even have one staff whose food bill is under $ 15 per week.

Transportation: walking, horse or public bus. Weekly costs under $ 3

Cellphone: Basic smart phone around $ 45. $3 phone card every two weeks.

Healthcare. Public social security provides health care. Employee contribution is 11.5% of salary. Employer contribution 13.5 % . It's basic and inefficient and if you get cancer or need a hip replacement the care aint happening but basic coverage is.

Childcare; Extended family unit covers this. Nobody here that I know pays for child care.


I was thinking about the poor in America and how there are no alternatives to be roped into high costs of the basics. We have an economy that is structured the same way for everyone. If cell phone providers in Panama can find a solution for under $ 12 a month why not in the US. It's the same microwave towers sending out the signals. The poor in the US have to buy their food packaged and processed. Everyone here in Panama has a hand cranked mill to mill corn and coffee for example. There are no processed box foods on the shopping list here. All the poor know how to cook from raw materials.

Would it be possible to change the structure of the US economy to provide the poor with goods and services stripped down as they are in Panama?
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Cog » Sat 23 Feb 2019, 07:15:32

You would be accused of being a non-caring monster if you would suggest the poor in America should have just the basics.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Ibon » Sat 23 Feb 2019, 08:32:45

Cog wrote:You would be accused of being a non-caring monster if you would suggest the poor in America should have just the basics.


That is half of the problem, the left demanding that opulence is a right and not a privilege.
And the other half of the problem, the government beholden to lobbyists and corporations that structure the rules of the game in their favor.

There is a small firm here in Panama that is our internet provider. It is a small family business run by this very smart electrical engineer. He set up a series of microwave towers in the valley and he offers internet to folks in remote locations. We pay $ 58 per month for 5meg speed which is enough for up to 15 guests checking emails and occaisionally making their phone calls. This is a small family business, not Verizon or T-Mobile.

Imagine in the US a private small family business somewhere in North Dakota providing the same service? Never happen. The licensing and permits is all wrapped up with the big Verizons etc.

Child care..... Imagine what the political left would say if we allowed Hondurans in on house keeping visas and only paid them $ 500 a month. They would claim slavery. Not to mention the anti-immigrant and racist sentiment on the political right never allowing this. And yet how many middle class families could benefit from a live in low wage care taker who would cook meals, wash clothes and baby sit the kids?

Americans are screwed from all sides. 43% cant cover the basics because of a rigged system.
Last edited by Ibon on Sat 23 Feb 2019, 08:34:01, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 23 Feb 2019, 08:33:59

Ibon, the Corporations are currently making too much profit to willingly change. And since the Govt aids and abets the corporations, nothing much changes. They afterall are prime movers of society. But I do expect big changes to happen once peak oil really bites.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby marmico » Sat 23 Feb 2019, 09:58:17

Hmmm.... I thought this thread initiated by copious was about the business cycle and turning points. But do carry on with your grocery lists.

The lower half of the US income distribution is doing fine - about a 1% real increase in annual income over the last 50 years. It would have been 1.2% if those retards at the top of the income scale didn't make hand held computers for the grandson of the 1962 Mississippi sharecropper.

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