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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 10 Feb 2019, 19:18:59

vtsnowedin wrote:
Armageddon wrote:
onlooker wrote:https://seekingalpha.com/article/4238463-coming-global-financial-crisis-debt-exhaustion?fbclid=IwAR1Uz2BCFnhHzD85hdSZvjSOOh9J_NXtUFEy1LibAnKybAjjD89GtdjsJTk

The coming-global-financial-crisis-debt-exhaustion



Hope you guys are hoarding gold and silver.

Can you eat gold or silver?



It’s better than owning stocks and paper. I have lots of food and water stored
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 11 Feb 2019, 00:18:30

Armageddon wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
Armageddon wrote:Hope you guys are hoarding gold and silver.

Can you eat gold or silver?

It’s better than owning stocks and paper. I have lots of food and water stored

But of course, stocks have outperformed inflation by about 7% since 1929, from when good data was consistently available. Gold and silver have been more or less even with inflation over the long run.

And of course, if we have a recession, let's pretend there suddenly won't be food. Or water.

Are you interviewing with zerobrains, by any chance? :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 11 Feb 2019, 04:27:41

The Baltic Dry Index is plunging. The shipping price is now below the break even point and would have to double to be economic for shipping. The reason for the plunge is said to be a slowdown in China.

The S&P 500 has followed this chart with a 3 months delay. U.S multinationals are dependent on global trade.

Image
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 11 Feb 2019, 11:48:12

The Baltic Dry Index is plunging. The shipping price is now below the break even point and would have to double to be economic for shipping. The reason for the plunge is said to be a slowdown in China.


China certainly is the focal point of the decline, but we are witnessing a world wide decline in many areas including industrial production, and housing. Housing is especially egregious because it directly impacts consumer confidence, and their buying behavior. The entire world is moving into a world wide recession. It is in the last stage of the oil age with Peak taking place at present, and per unit deliverable energy continuing its decline. The collapse is most likely a necessity as we appear to be killing off the planet.

The Market is still of the belief that these problems can be alleviated by the resolution of trade talks, and central bank machinations. It principally believes that the condition can be re-mediated by doing the same thing that got us into this mess in the first place?

Psychological Projection
"Psychological projection is a defense mechanism in which the human ego defends itself against unconscious impulses or qualities (both positive and negative) by denying their existence in themselves while attributing them to others".



https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... -of-nature
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02- ... -2018-2019
https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/imf-c ... 1902110142
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 11 Feb 2019, 12:06:21

Very true, the markets only care about FED actions and China trade talk. Have seen 500+ swings on rumors.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby evilgenius » Mon 11 Feb 2019, 13:54:39

Yoshua wrote:The Baltic Dry Index is plunging. The shipping price is now below the break even point and would have to double to be economic for shipping. The reason for the plunge is said to be a slowdown in China.

The S&P 500 has followed this chart with a 3 months delay. U.S multinationals are dependent on global trade.

Image

I was just coming back from a walk where I saw a woman flying down the street in her car with her phone to her ear. She had that head leaning to one side desperately keeping her phone from falling look. For about the thousandth time I said to myself that I ought to invent some cheap injection molded or folding thing which people could use to hold their cellphone to their shoulders like you used to see when landlines were the only way. But, I said to myself, it wouldn't matter even if I had a patent in every country because some Chinese company would copy it, mass produce them and sell them for half of what I could do it for. It is so cheap to ship things these days that even large volume stuff or heavy things can be made in China and sold in the US for less than what a person doing all aspects of production here could do it for. Such are the economics of scale. Now you are telling me it is even cheaper. Jeez.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 11 Feb 2019, 14:27:26

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Armageddon wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
Armageddon wrote:Hope you guys are hoarding gold and silver.

Can you eat gold or silver?

It’s better than owning stocks and paper. I have lots of food and water stored

But of course, stocks have outperformed inflation by about 7% since 1929, from when good data was consistently available. Gold and silver have been more or less even with inflation over the long run.

And of course, if we have a recession, let's pretend there suddenly won't be food. Or water.

Are you interviewing with zerobrains, by any chance? :roll:




To everyone who says #gold is a bad investment: If you bought gold 10 years ago, you would have received 7% annualized return every year in CAD terms, says Kitco’s #PeterHug |
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 11 Feb 2019, 14:59:06



I know you seek out doom like a drug, but you do realize these two stories share nothing in common, right?
"this is peak now. Wanna bet? The Real Pain starts . . . now." (11/21/18)" --pstarr
"$0/barrel soon as per etp." (12/30/18)" --pstarr
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 11 Feb 2019, 15:10:34

The S&P 500 has followed this chart with a 3 months delay. U.S multinationals are dependent on global trade.


That is why we are about to see a crisis in earning. S&P EPS is about to take to dive. Oil can no longer power economic growth, or earnings. The end of the oil age will also be known as the "they went broke age"!

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 11 Feb 2019, 15:17:57

ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!


Psychological Projection
"Psychological projection is a defense mechanism in which the human ego defends itself against unconscious impulses or qualities (both positive and negative) by denying their existence in themselves while attributing them to others".


Still projecting; pitifully little turd.
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Cog » Mon 11 Feb 2019, 18:29:07

Pay the bet shorty and we won't have to remind you about welching on it. Onlooker paid his bet with me.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby marmico » Mon 11 Feb 2019, 20:20:11

That is why we are about to see a crisis in earning. S&P EPS is about to take to dive.


BS. You just copied the chart from zerodeadhead. Most forward EPS is marked down.

Image

Morgan Stanley's base case is $164 2019 EPS which means that at a 16 forward multiple the S&P500 will be 2750 at year end 2019 (~12% annual return dividends included ).

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 11 Feb 2019, 23:08:30

BS. You just copied the chart from zerodeadhead. Most forward EPS is marked down.


It says on the chart (source: FactSet) We can suppose that you read ZH. What has that got to do with where the chart came from? So you make another stupid assumption to push a stupid agenda. What else is new?

PS: Flutter Brain, that chart has shown up all over the internet in financial articles for the last week.

Psychological Projection
"Psychological projection is a defense mechanism in which the human ego defends itself against unconscious impulses or qualities (both positive and negative) by denying their existence in themselves while attributing them to others".


Still projecting? Pitifully little turd.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 12 Feb 2019, 03:38:15

Armageddon wrote:To everyone who says #gold is a bad investment: If you bought gold 10 years ago, you would have received 7% annualized return every year in CAD terms, says Kitco’s #PeterHug |

Citation? Showing his assumptions and work? Because this number (7% annual appreciation) makes NO sense to me given it looks like the US$ only appreciated roughly 7% vs. the Canadian dollar in the past ten years, and the figure, after inflation, is MUCH lower against the US$. (See below).

https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/currency

Also, let's NOT pretend a 10 year snapshot is meaningful compared to looking at returns for nearly a century. Especially with volatile financial markets.

So gold is roughly $1300 now, in US dollars. (Rounding to nearest $100 -- just looking for a back-of-the-envelope picture here).

90 years ago, (going back to 1929, when good data generally became available for the biggest financial markets) gold was roughly $300 in US dollars -- inflation adjusted.

So the 90 year return was roughly (1300 - 300) / 300 = 1000 / 300 or 333 percent. So that's well under two doublings. So by the rule of 72, that's WAY under 2% return annually. Using 1.3% return would get us a doubling in 55+ years (72 / 1.3 = 55.4).

So 55 years for the first doubling, and then 35 years (to 90 years) to be 70% into the next doubling. 35 / 55 = 64%. So 1.3% is in the ballpark. Somehow I think the stock market returns of roughly 7% after inflation, looking over 5 TIMES the return of gold for the past 90 years looks significantly better.

https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/histor ... year-chart

And why boost the gold returns by using Canadian dollars? Who cares about Canadian dollar purchasing power outside of Canada? For the US dollar, gold looked like $1127ish in Feb 2009, and $1316ish now. So that gives a 10 year return of (1316 - 1127) / 1127 = 16.8% in 10 years, so let's call in 1.7% annualized in USD terms, inflation adjusted.

And notice how this 10 year period you chose is in the ballpark of the longer term average for Gold's performance?

...
Sanity checking, the rate of return formula I looked up is the same thing I used.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/rateofreturn.asp

I used Microsoft's CALC for all my figures.

If I messed up on the math (it's late, and I'm quite tired), please let me know.
Last edited by Outcast_Searcher on Tue 12 Feb 2019, 04:00:05, edited 1 time in total.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 12 Feb 2019, 03:57:49

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Armageddon wrote:To everyone who says #gold is a bad investment: If you bought gold 10 years ago, you would have received 7% annualized return every year in CAD terms, says Kitco’s #PeterHug |

Citation? Showing his assumptions and work? Because this number (7% annual appreciation) makes NO sense to me given it looks like the US$ only appreciated roughly 7% vs. the Canadian dollar in the past ten years, and the figure, after inflation, is MUCH lower against the US$. (See below).

Here's another sanity check simple way to evaluate this.

By the rule of 72, it would take just over 10 years for an asset to double in value with a 7 percent compounded rate of return. But, re my previous post, gold only appreciated under 17% in USD in the last 10 years, or under a fifth of the required rate.

And my ballparked 1.3% annual rate of return is a bit under a fifth of the 7% rate claimed.

The 7% or so appreciation of the USD$ to the CAD$ over those 10 years doesn't begin to cover that magnitude of difference.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 12 Feb 2019, 05:49:25

The trouble with gold and silver is the number of shysters in the market pushing gold on people playing on their fears. These same dealers periodically manipulate the market to rip off their customers. I've been watching the market for some forty years and seen a couple of these cycles where people bought in for say $700 and had to sell out later for $350.
Longer term it keeps up with inflation but doesn't yield much profit beyond that.
For example My father bought a fairly new house in 1927 for $4400 within walking distance of his job. At that time you could have bought 137.5 ounces of gold for $4400 which today at 1300/oz would sell for $179,000. That house still exists not much changed and as it is run down a bit you could probable buy it or one like it for 178K but a nearly new house will run you over $300k in the same market.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 12 Feb 2019, 11:16:03

DOW up to 25,348 WTI at $53.18. (2/12/2019)
Not much of a market crash. :)
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Cog » Tue 12 Feb 2019, 11:55:55

vtsnowedin wrote:DOW up to 25,348 WTI at $53.18. (2/12/2019)
Not much of a market crash. :)


This time is different
We are on a precipice
Its about to get bad (I guess)

Did I leave anyone out?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby marmico » Tue 12 Feb 2019, 12:07:30

For example My father bought a fairly new house in 1927 for $4400 within walking distance of his job. At that time you could have bought 137.5 ounces of gold for $4400 which today at 1300/oz would sell for $179,000. That house still exists not much changed and as it is run down a bit you could probable buy it or one like it for 178K but a nearly new house will run you over $300k in the same market.


You neglected to include the present value of actual or owner-equivalent rent for 92 years. :)
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 12 Feb 2019, 13:45:38

marmico wrote:
For example My father bought a fairly new house in 1927 for $4400 within walking distance of his job. At that time you could have bought 137.5 ounces of gold for $4400 which today at 1300/oz would sell for $179,000. That house still exists not much changed and as it is run down a bit you could probable buy it or one like it for 178K but a nearly new house will run you over $300k in the same market.


You neglected to include the present value of actual or owner-equivalent rent for 92 years. :)

Also property taxes and utility bills and safe deposit box fees to store the gold. It wasn't meant to be an in depth analysis.
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