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When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 10 Feb 2019, 20:07:46

KaiserJeep wrote:Correct, vtsnowedin.

As for the "mass die-off beginning", as I have said many times, the present mass extinction began about 1800 and has been ongoing for about two centuries. I suspect that in most people's minds, the meaning of "mass dieoff" is when the rate of death very much exceeds the birthrate and the overall world population noticeably and suddenly declines. My guess about THAT is somewhere between two and five centuries from today. Don't hold your breath while waiting.

I doubt that it will be that far in the future. Many countries populations now exceed the local ability to produce food. Egypt and sub Saharan Africa for example. They are dependent on food imports from the countries with a food surplus. USA ,Canada, Russia etc. Let those imports stop for any reason and hundreds of millions could starve within a year. And of course while staving desperate people will go to war making the problem worse by exponential factors.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 10 Feb 2019, 20:17:17

Imagine if you will one of the Bernie progressive Dems. winning the presidency in 2020 with sufficient majorities in both houses to actually enact the "Green new deal" and forcing USA farmers to become zero CO2 and Methane emitters. No milk in the cooler. no steaks on the grill and no extra food to export to anyone. 8O
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby efarmer » Sun 10 Feb 2019, 20:46:10

The mass dieoff shall begin tomorrow around sunrise. That is when I go into the loo and start spraying the tub and toilet with chlorine bleach and then reaching for the scrub brush. If you are not a pinkish fungus, you can rest easy, if you are, efarmer has got your pink little fungal nose.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 10 Feb 2019, 22:18:47

I haven't followed this thread but it doesn't take long for something to pop into the news suggesting a malthusian catastrophe is inevitable, like this one:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... -of-nature

This sort of stuff bothers me a lot more than peak oil. The tunnel-vision here on peak oil may be understandable, but it's misguided.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby careinke » Mon 11 Feb 2019, 02:00:56

Ibon wrote:Go ahead Newfie and take a good hard look at the 4th generation of humans removed from gutting an animal, cleaning fish, foraging for tubers and greens. The skill set you assume is still there to ravage and plunder the remaining ecosystems is woefully missing. Is there an App that will show them how?


Well, I learned how raise,slaughter, butcher, and process a hog from Youtube. Just recently I butchered a half a steer which I also learned to do from a female butcher on Youtube.

You tube is your friend. :)
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby derhundistlos » Mon 11 Feb 2019, 02:11:32

"Popular sentiments about DOOM abound here at peakoil.com, but the statistics don't support any such conclusions." Kaiser Jeep

This ranks as the most assinine denialist statement of the century. You must be living in a cave and engaging a selective reading of the multitudes of evidence being served up on nearly a daily bases outlining the broad array of ecological destruction.

All past civilizations proffered a similarly arrogant understanding of their world at their apex. This false sense of security spelled civilization-ending disaster when the chickens came home to roost due to the consequences of an unsustainable lifestyle.

"Human nature will not change. Ergo men do not learn very much from the lessons of history. We do not learn and as a consequence, we are doomed to repeat our great errors. In any future great national trial, compared with the men of this, we shall have as weak and as strong, as silly and as wise, as bad and as good."

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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 11 Feb 2019, 07:04:36

careinke wrote:
Ibon wrote:Go ahead Newfie and take a good hard look at the 4th generation of humans removed from gutting an animal, cleaning fish, foraging for tubers and greens. The skill set you assume is still there to ravage and plunder the remaining ecosystems is woefully missing. Is there an App that will show them how?


Well, I learned how raise,slaughter, butcher, and process a hog from Youtube. Just recently I butchered a half a steer which I also learned to do from a female butcher on Youtube.

You tube is your friend. :)


OK Careinke, I concede. BUT, you who have been working the land and immersing in Permaculture and other agrarian pursuits, you turned on that Youtube video already with a big big backpack full of self sufficiency and self reliance skills.

Now go ahead and imagine your average suburban or urban inhabitant wielding that knife, making the initial kill, etc. etc.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 11 Feb 2019, 07:08:41

asg70 wrote:I haven't followed this thread but it doesn't take long for something to pop into the news suggesting a malthusian catastrophe is inevitable, like this one:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... -of-nature

This sort of stuff bothers me a lot more than peak oil. The tunnel-vision here on peak oil may be understandable, but it's misguided.


I will repeat what I wrote previously on this topic. My source is the many entomologists who come visit us.

The source of the problem is multiple, agriculture practices at the top of the list, secondary is invasive species which wasn't even mentioned in the article, then electric light pollution and finally climate change. By far the biggest source of the problem is intensive monoculture agriculture and the use of petrochemicals. Imagine human population receding and agricultural fields going to seed. How fast would the bounce back be of insects when pesticide free landscapes covered in weeds and pioneer species recolonizes former monoculture agricultural fields?
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 11 Feb 2019, 07:48:28

Newfie wrote:

But this starts to become like arguing religion. Something I have little time for. Your belief system requires a rebirth, a rejuvenation. Mine does not, it accepts dead as dead, fini, no more. Not that I want that end, I despise it, but I accept it is likely.


The consequences coming will be biblical and I do recognize that dead may just be dead, that there may be no redemption on the other side of the bottleneck, that we royally fucked ourselves. This is not impossible.

This is like arguing religion, because this is THE existential crisis of our times.

Civilizations rise and fall and usually .............rise again. I am most interested in what gets embedded in culture going through the bottleneck and how this lays the foundation for what civilization rebuilds afterwards.

Make no mistake, my training as an ecologist and amateur naturalist recognizes fully the threats to biodiversity. That a rise in extinctions already begun will accelerate as part of this process. I also have witnessed and have a deep appreciation for the bounce back that happens when natural ecosystems are given the chance to regenerate. Key is those pockets of refuge populations out of which recolonization can occur.

The same applies to humans by the way, those pockets of refuge humanity that gets through the bottleneck will carry forth whatever lessons learned.

Finally, as I mentioned, these reflections are biased by our attempts to cope with what we see unfolding. To hold on to that thread of redemption where humans learn from what they will pass through. That this will effect culture and our values regarding how we treat our mother earth is not just empty hope. There is precedent as I mentioned earlier in how we do plan strategically and logistically for what lies within parameters that we choose to value. Natural ecosystems, the air we breath, the marine environments, our climate, have all been externalities that have not fallen within the parameters of where we apply strategic planning. This is what very well may change passing through the bottleneck.

May change. I am not saying it will. And if any of you are saying they wont then you are fixed. I have always presented my case here as a big fat maybe....... perhaps in my most positive spin on things I sometimes say this is probable. How can we not learn something from biblical consequences?
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 11 Feb 2019, 08:07:09

"Key is those pockets of refuge populations out of which recolonization can occur. "

Yes, that is key.

And what if the pockets are wiped out?
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 11 Feb 2019, 08:31:00

dohboi wrote:"Key is those pockets of refuge populations out of which recolonization can occur. "

Yes, that is key.

And what if the pockets are wiped out?


We grow coffee here at Mount Totumas and we process the beans. In each step of the process there are always a few beans that the wind blows out of the drying bed, that slip through the cracks, that bounce out of the grain bag. You never get every single bean, some always slip through the cracks.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 11 Feb 2019, 10:53:35

Not sure what relevance you think that has, but if you mean there are always 'cracks,' well, maybe. But by polluting the global biosphere in so many ways--GW, related ocean acidification and stratification, massive amounts of persistent chemical poisons, radioactive wastes, direct obliteration of entire eco-systems, introduction of invasive species....--we sure seem to be doing our very best to get rid of as many 'cracks' as possible.

And of course, a species that has been relegated to some tiny niche is the easiest to wipe out.

But yes, a few species are likely to prosper, at least for a while, and if you find that to be good news, good on you! :)

...researchers say that some species, such as houseflies and cockroaches, are likely to boom...

"Fast-breeding pest insects will probably thrive because of the warmer conditions, because many of their natural enemies, which breed more slowly, will disappear, " said Prof Dave Goulson from the University of Sussex who was not involved in the review.

"It's quite plausible that we might end up with plagues of small numbers of [species of] pest insects, but we will lose all the wonderful ones that we want, like bees and hoverflies and butterflies and dung beetles that do a great job of disposing of animal waste."


https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-47198576
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 11 Feb 2019, 11:33:59

dohboi wrote:Not sure what relevance you think that has, but if you mean there are always 'cracks,' well, maybe. But by polluting the global biosphere in so many ways--GW, related ocean acidification and stratification, massive amounts of persistent chemical poisons, radioactive wastes, direct obliteration of entire eco-systems, introduction of invasive species....--we sure seem to be doing our very best to get rid of as many 'cracks' as possible.

And of course, a species that has been relegated to some tiny niche is the easiest to wipe out.

But yes, a few species are likely to prosper, at least for a while, and if you find that to be good news, good on you! :)

...researchers say that some species, such as houseflies and cockroaches, are likely to boom...

"Fast-breeding pest insects will probably thrive because of the warmer conditions, because many of their natural enemies, which breed more slowly, will disappear, " said Prof Dave Goulson from the University of Sussex who was not involved in the review.

"It's quite plausible that we might end up with plagues of small numbers of [species of] pest insects, but we will lose all the wonderful ones that we want, like bees and hoverflies and butterflies and dung beetles that do a great job of disposing of animal waste."


https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-47198576


Dohboi

you read alot but you lack field work to understand the point I am trying to make. When Fish and Wildlife try to eradicate invasive species in the Everglades they can fly planes over vast stands of Melaleuca or Brazilian Pepper and basically agent orange the entire area but they never get the last one. Those invasive species always come back because you can never wipe out every one. As long as we have refuge populations of biodiversity the bounce back is remarkable.

Of course there are species that cannot handle habitat loss or hunting pressure. Look at the Passenger Pigeon. But then look again at extinctions of vertebrates in the continental US (outside of Hawaii where most of the avian extinctions in North America have taken place). Considering that we wiped out 98% of eastern deciduous forests in the 19 century east of the Mississippi for example the bird extinctions as a result are: Passenger Pigeon, Carolina Parakeet, Ivory-Billed Woodpecker, Bachman's Warbler, Dusky Seaside Sparrow. That's it. If you add Hawaii you see a national tragedy. Look here:

https://ase.tufts.edu/biology/labs/reed ... hickBC.pdf

Islands are by there very nature vulnerable habitats, species have no resistance to introduced invasive species and their numbers are small to begin with. Why are the Philippines at top of the list of IUCN extinctions. 7000 islands of vulnerable habitat overun with humans. Yes this is the sad truth. The whole South East Asia corridor of Thailand, Maylasia, Indonesia, Burma, Laos, Vietnam and the Philippines has the highest rates of extinctions globally because the land mass of this region is a fraction of equatorial Africa or the Amazon and you add severe over population and CHina acting like a giant vacuum cleaner sucking up oil palm and all the rest and yes there we will see a global tragedy of extinctions in the years ahead.

It will be spotty, some places devestated others bouncing back. I am not trying to suggest this is not a global tragedy, I am just reacting to frequent posts here depicting a homogeneous lunar landscape coming around the corner and that we are fucked. This is an excellent orientation by the way if you choose to wash your hands of the whole calamity and conclude that we are doomed. These sentiments belong to those too lazy to think deeply or too lazy to get off their fucking asses and stop being digital warriors for our planet and instead get out there more and actually buy a few acres of land and preserve it or plant your back yard with native plants to attract insects in decline..... anything but this sitting on your asses everyday being digital warriors for our planet..... Of course I AM SUGGESTING THAT MANY OF YOU ON THIS SITE BELONG TO THIS CATEGORY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

We are a decadent and lazy culture right now..... even many of those who proclaim concern for the natural history of our planet. We do not get out enough into forests and fields. We do not exercise the innate naturalist that is in every one of us. We are hooked so deep into digital and artificial human landscapes the most attention we give to other life forms is to our domestic invasive cats and dogs.

WE SUCK big time at the moment.

To the current crop of Kudzu Apes........ good riddance....... does not make me misanthropic, just a bit impatient to remove the chaff from the wheat so the survivors can prove us all wrong that we are a flawed species.....

OK, enough of my rant for the day!
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 11 Feb 2019, 12:01:00

I admire your optimism even though I don’t share it.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Mon 11 Feb 2019, 12:55:11

derhundistlos wrote:-snip-

This ranks as the most assinine denialist statement of the century. You must be living in a cave and engaging a selective reading of the multitudes of evidence being served up on nearly a daily bases outlining the broad array of ecological destruction.

-snip-


I realize you are a Noob here, but be aware you are in violation of both common courtesy and the specific rules of conduct here. You should be addressing and disputing the IDEA, not the PERSON. In case you missed it when you read the rules, that was what was meant by the section on "ad hominem".

I don't report Noobs on a first offense, unless they continue to violate our standards of conduct.

In spite of your opinions, we have within the last two days discussed the fact that humans are still increasing in numbers, and the percentage in either poverty or extreme poverty has declined yet again, on average all around the globe. In fact by virtually every measure we have, we are better off than the last time such things were measured.

I'm talking about people. If you have some other criteria or species in mind, you failed to make your point.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 11 Feb 2019, 14:43:43

New world continents, north and south america. Having lived and worked and played extensively in the Americas has definitely skewed some of my positions that I am sharing here.

We have had Japanese, Filipino, Korean and Chinese guests here. They come up the 10km sparse agrarian rural 4x4 road and hardly see a person, big dairy, cattle farms, coffee farms. Then they hit our reserve and there is a point where you can see our 400 acres and the sweeping view of the national park that joins our property, tens of thousands of acres of preserved forest. These guests marvel at the sparse population here in Panama, the vast areas void of humanity. You cannot find this in SE Asia anymore.

Europeans marvel the same, they do not have tracks of 1.5 million acres of wilderness except in the most inhospitable regions of the Alps. La Amistad NP that borders our land is 1.5 million acres. Why do we still haev Baird's Tapir, Jaguar, mountain lions and all their prey present here? Because of the sheer size of this preserved area.

When we look at extinctions going up we can isolate SE Asia, islands and places like Europe whose bird populations have dropped precipitously because of the decline of insects. This is specifically related to agricultural practices and removal of edge habitat. There are researchers trying to pin climate change as a factor but this is minor as a cause to date.

The Americas are actually very likely to have significant refuge populations of native habitat remaining when human overshoot goes into correction. Significant refuges of natural ecosystems to recolonize former habitat. Central America has a significant percentage of land under protection. South America as well. Threats and corruption yes it is there, but there are laws and national parks protecting millions of acres.

Africa? Equatorial Africa is enormous. Population growth is still strong. The verdict is out regarding larger keystone predators and mammals. We don't know.

Europe and those insects in decline. Let's not forget that many species in decline in western Europe are still holding on in Eastern Europe where agricultural practices are still in many places small family farms where there are still good edge habitat. Not intensive agro chemical farming. The insect decline reported is mainly in Germany and the UK. Again, if and when human population recedes the refuge populations in far eastern Europe in countries like Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine, Poland etc. will recolonize the species wiped out in Western Europe due to over extensive land use in agriculture.

When you examine deeply the topic of refuge populations of various ecosystems it is damn hard to hermetically eliminate 100% of any given species especially when these species distributions are continental.

Islands are another story.....extinctions there will continue to soar as they already have.

These are just a few points to understand the resiliency that exists..... you can reduce species down to 5% of their former range but that 5% refuge population is enough to recolonize once the habitat opens up again.

Look at eastern deciduous forests today in North America . The American chestnut is gone, the elm is in severe decline, Ash borers are wiping native ash family. These three examples are because of invasive species. But otherwise vast forests now exists that were clearcut 100 years ago and they are starting to look again like primary forests since many of the 2nd growth forests are now 80 plus years old.

WE don't discuss much about invasive species and the havoc they cause to native ecosystems. This is a huge threat 2nd only to human agricultural practices and the sheer acreage covered with artificial human landscapes.

7 billion humans is a lot of humanity. And growing and no end in site in increased consumption per capita. As KJ points out we have never been better fed and as wealthy as we are today. He should of course understand that what that means specifically is that our rate of exploitation of natural resources and burning carbon and agriculture is at this very moment at its most egregious. So KJ stating the good health of Homo sapiens is basically stating that our rate of fucking up the planet has never been higher. In other words he is basically confirming the doomer sentiment that he is arguing against.
Last edited by Ibon on Mon 11 Feb 2019, 15:40:29, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 11 Feb 2019, 15:39:50

To make a separate post instead of editing my last one, If and when human population recedes, if and when starvation increases and resource extraction declines, if and when disease is on the rise and droughts cause regional starvation and poverty, that is when many of you believe the desperate starving humans will ravage remaining natural ecosystems. This is the long held meme and deep assumption .

I dispute this. Witness the depopulation of vast agrarian areas of North America and China, vast areas of the Amazon under soy and sugar and corn, vast areas of Argentina the same. When planetary havoc threatens these areas humans are going to depopulate and cluster in only big metropolitan areas. Yes there will be rural areas where local game will be decimated. But there will be vast areas to far away from any human population where the recolonization of biodiversity will bloom.

Chernobyl 40 years later. You guys have seen it. You are well read. This will happen on a global scale.

Humans recede and a grand Chernobyl recolonization of natural ecosystems will unfold with certain areas being ravaged of their bio diversity, other areas fairing quite nicely.

My view on the upcoming renaissance of natural ecosystems.

One species apocolypse means millions of life forms get their homes back.

Ohhh so very misanthropic.......

Just toward Kudzu Apes..... not toward those who make it through and come out reborn, spiritually.

If reincarnation is true I will come back a priest of the new eco paradigm. At least in my mind I can pretend....

All part of coping.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby jedrider » Mon 11 Feb 2019, 16:48:18

When the bees are gone, I'm outta here! Well, that's my thinking.

Of course, humans will straggle on, but for how long?

And, most of all, why would anyone care?
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 11 Feb 2019, 17:27:23

hi Ibon,
"The American chestnut is gone,"

On my property in WVa I have 3 American Chestnut trees growing. U WVa come along every few months and do a rain dance around them, or say a prayer (or something). In time those magnificent forests will return. Otherwise, what you say is true.

PS: My grandfather cut the beam used as the keel for the last wooden icebreaker build by the the US Navy. It was a beam 24" x 24" by 67 feet long. It came from a Chestnut tree.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 11 Feb 2019, 18:15:58

jedrider wrote:
And, most of all, why would anyone care?


Anyone whose only concern is their own insignificant life and has no vested interest in the long term integrity of our species is actually disconnected from the greater spiritual truth on how we are all interconnected. Such folks represent part of the decadence in our culture currently, not being integrated in the community of life. I would estimate this represents a good 6 billion or more of the current global population.

Trash Kudzu Apes.
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