Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby derhundistlos » Sun 10 Feb 2019, 09:57:17

Ibon wrote:
Newfie wrote:
Personally I’m guessing that when 7.7 billion get real hungry we will eat everything possible to stay alive. Som I would guess we will eat to extinction 50% of all edible mamillian species bigger than a rat.


This is almost like a meme among the doom projections, hungry masses ravaging the remaining natural ecosystems. My observations are exactly the opposite. The emptying out of vast areas with the dismantling of the juggernaut of the human population is going to create giant refuges.


When people are hungry, they will do damn near anything. In Missouri during the Great Depression, the state's deer and turkey populations were decimated to the point of extinction. When times improved, the stock had to be imported to resurrect those species hunted to extinction.

To think that people will avoid eating everything in existence once hunger overtakes, due to a lack of knowing how to skin and gut animals, is laughable.

If you want to predict the future of life on Earth, study the history of Easter Island for the island’s human-induced ecological holocaust is a microcosm of the earth. Understand why Easter Island is today a desolate and parched landscape bereft of biodiversity- a deafening silence of life.
Before the arrival of man, Easter Island was Nirvana. Rich volcanic soils, moderate temperatures, abundant rainfall, forests teeming with exotic flora and fauna combined to create a paradise. Among Easter Island’s species found nowhere else was the world’s largest palm tree. This now extinct behemoth grew to a height of 100 feet and had a girth of six feet.
Then the Destroyer of Worlds arrived in the form of seafaring Polynesians. For a time, the land produced such bounty that sufficient leisure time existed for the human inhabitants to create the toppled over ghostly stone statues that still dot the island. A large human population that ignored the balance of nature. Over time, human population numbers grew far out of proportion to what was sustainable- poor farming practices eroded fertile soil, animal and plant species found nowhere else were hunted to extinction. When the very last tree on the island was cut down, the Islanders sealed their fate. What kind of madness would allow this to happen (sound familiar)? No trees meant no canoes with which to harvest the ocean’s bounty and final remaining source of protein.
The result: When Captain James Cook discovered the island, he was shocked to find a small, parasite-infested human population engaged in cannibalistic internecine tribal warfare. After eliminating all natural protein sources, the inhabitants turned on each other for the only remaining food source- human flesh. Welcome to the future. And don’t forget your new and improved allotment of Soylent Green. Our only home, the earth, is an island oasis in the vastness of space.
derhundistlos
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 65
Joined: Thu 17 Mar 2016, 19:31:48

Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 10 Feb 2019, 10:02:47

Ibon,
(Derhun...we were writing at the same time)

You point to how the locals are loosing the hunting skills.

Look to Africa where Bush meat is clearing the forests.

The difference is your folks are relatively well fed, they are not.

Humans are adaptable and will learn. Europe has very little wild space left, but oh so many people. NA has some wild space but oh so many heavily armed people.

About 1890 white tail deer were so rare in PA they had to be reintroduced from Ohio. I’ve personally seen the RURAL deer population decrease dramatically, even under reduced hunting pressure. Meanwhile urban and suburban deer populations have soared. The deer have adapedted to human habitation. But that also makes them extremely vulnerable to human predation. Their extinction in a hungry suburban environment assured. I expect them to become totally extinct.

The difference in the deer population was that about 1900 restrictions were introduced and preserves (game lands) were created. These provided enclaves where they could regrow their population. The difference was enforcement of the laws. And probably also better, more available food sources. People moved from game meat because they had to, it was gone. And several game wardens died in the line of duty. When the rule of law disappears, when folks get hungry, then the animals will come under pressure.

But this starts to become like arguing religion. Something I have little time for. Your belief system requires a rebirth, a rejuvenation. Mine does not, it accepts dead as dead, fini, no more. Not that I want that end, I despise it, but I accept it is likely.
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 12381
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Between Canada and Carribean

Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 10 Feb 2019, 10:13:29

Derhundistlos,

There seems to be a lot of revisionist history about Easter Island. Your story sounds most believable to me but expect a lot of contrarian views. I think that is just an example of the lengths we will go to preserving our hope.

I’ve read a few stories of folks doing northern exploration. I call them shoe eaters. The introduction of firearms to northern populations drastically altered their life, they killed wantonly and deeply reduced populations.

And so it goes.

NTW, my Father was a young poor man during the Depression. He did did things he was not proud of including killingnmany, many deer.
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 12381
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Between Canada and Carribean

Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 10 Feb 2019, 15:00:46

Thanks, Gas.

From the same article:

“When you consider 80% of biomass of insects has disappeared in 25-30 years, it is a big concern.”
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 18074
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby derhundistlos » Sun 10 Feb 2019, 15:37:38

Newfie wrote:Derhundistlos,

There seems to be a lot of revisionist history about Easter Island. Your story sounds most believable to me but expect a lot of contrarian views. I think that is just an example of the lengths we will go to preserving our hope.


Not just Easter Island but all past civilizations collapsed due to mankind's destruction of the environment. There are plenty of examples from the Middle East, Central and South America, and Mexico.

I agree with you that the contrarian (denialist) views arose as a means to discount Man's impact on the natural world as promulgated by the business as usual crowd. I concur with the scientific consensus on the history of Easter Island, first developed by Dr. Jared Diamond.

The condition of the Islanders described in Dr. Cook's log is not debatable. So the question remains for the denialists, who created the stone statues and what explained the miserable conditions of the people? Something bad happened otherwise Cook would have discovered a thriving population.
derhundistlos
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 65
Joined: Thu 17 Mar 2016, 19:31:48

Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby derhundistlos » Sun 10 Feb 2019, 15:47:37

I forgot to add some further questions for the denialists. What caused the mass extinction of the island's plant and animal life? Are we to believe the residents discovered by Captain Cook arrived to and settled Easter Island with cannibalism as the only and accepted means of protein sustenance?
I have read the denialist explanations and they all are full of gaping holes and inconsistencies. As Newfie correctly indicated, these "alternative" views represent a desperate attempt by the status quo crowd to relieve concerns and to provide a rationale for continuing business as usual. Yet, with every passing day, their furious attempts appear more and more ridiculous. Most people now acknowledge, whether they choose to or not, that something is very wrong with our way of life.
derhundistlos
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 65
Joined: Thu 17 Mar 2016, 19:31:48

Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sun 10 Feb 2019, 16:09:15

derhundistlos wrote:I forgot to add some further questions for the denialists. What caused the mass extinction of the island's plant and animal life? Are we to believe the residents discovered by Captain Cook arrived to and settled Easter Island with cannibalism as the only and accepted means of protein sustenance?
I have read the denialist explanations and they all are full of gaping holes and inconsistencies. As Newfie correctly indicated, these "alternative" views represent a desperate attempt by the status quo crowd to relieve concerns and to provide a rationale for continuing business as usual. Yet, with every passing day, their furious attempts appear more and more ridiculous. Most people now acknowledge, whether they choose to or not, that something is very wrong with our way of life.



Really? That must be why the human population is approaching 7.8 Billion, with higher standards of living and better health for everybody on average, including the poorest people on Earth.
KaiserJeep 2.0, Neural Subnode 0010 0000 0001 0110 - 1001 0011 0011, Tertiary Adjunct to Unimatrix 0000 0000 0001

Resistance is Futile, YOU will be Assimilated.

Warning: Messages timestamped before April 1, 2016, 06:00 PST were posted by the unmodified human KaiserJeep 1.0
KaiserJeep
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5986
Joined: Tue 06 Aug 2013, 16:16:32
Location: Wisconsin's Dreamland

Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby derhundistlos » Sun 10 Feb 2019, 16:55:09

KaiserJeep wrote:
derhundistlos wrote:I forgot to add some further questions for the denialists. What caused the mass extinction of the island's plant and animal life? Are we to believe the residents discovered by Captain Cook arrived to and settled Easter Island with cannibalism as the only and accepted means of protein sustenance?
I have read the denialist explanations and they all are full of gaping holes and inconsistencies. As Newfie correctly indicated, these "alternative" views represent a desperate attempt by the status quo crowd to relieve concerns and to provide a rationale for continuing business as usual. Yet, with every passing day, their furious attempts appear more and more ridiculous. Most people now acknowledge, whether they choose to or not, that something is very wrong with our way of life.



Really? That must be why the human population is approaching 7.8 Billion, with higher standards of living and better health for everybody on average, including the poorest people on Earth.


Yeah, that's what the Easter Islanders thought as well at the height of their civilization. A typical fool who refuses to learn the lessons of history. You're a typical spoiled American who thinks his way of life is non-negotiable. You got some big surprises coming in the not too distant future. I can't wait to learn who you blame for this (not yourself, naturally).

By the way, to suggest a higher standard of living and better health for everybody ("on average"-whatever that means) is patently stupid. Tell that to the millions starving in sub-Saharan Africa.
derhundistlos
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 65
Joined: Thu 17 Mar 2016, 19:31:48

Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 10 Feb 2019, 17:02:19

Right Derhund. This article has startling statistics related to the great global inequality, poverty and destitution. And even cites things are getting worse
http://www.globalissues.org/article/26/ ... -and-stats
"We are mortal beings doomed to die
User avatar
onlooker
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 10397
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 12:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 10 Feb 2019, 18:52:47

Not according to this.
https://ourworldindata.org/poverty-at-h ... erty-lines
The short answer is that global poverty rates have also been falling above the $1.90 line. This means that, although much still needs to be done, progress has been real. The historical reductions in global extreme poverty are not merely the result of people moving marginally above some arbitrary misery threshold.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9770
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 02:00:00

Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sun 10 Feb 2019, 19:56:24

Correct, vtsnowedin. My own remarks were based on UN statistics and worldwide averages, and even after accounting for currency fluctuations, modest improvements were noted world-wide.

Popular sentiments about DOOM abound here at peakoil.com, but the statistics don't support any such conclusions. In spite of the expanding worldwide population, everybody everywhere saw modest improvements since the last measurement. Learn to distinguish changes is the reporting of events from the events themselves, because almost everybody in the media has an agenda of one sort or another.

As for the "mass die-off beginning", as I have said many times, the present mass extinction began about 1800 and has been ongoing for about two centuries. I suspect that in most people's minds, the meaning of "mass dieoff" is when the rate of death very much exceeds the birthrate and the overall world population noticeably and suddenly declines. My guess about THAT is somewhere between two and five centuries from today. Don't hold your breath while waiting.
KaiserJeep 2.0, Neural Subnode 0010 0000 0001 0110 - 1001 0011 0011, Tertiary Adjunct to Unimatrix 0000 0000 0001

Resistance is Futile, YOU will be Assimilated.

Warning: Messages timestamped before April 1, 2016, 06:00 PST were posted by the unmodified human KaiserJeep 1.0
KaiserJeep
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5986
Joined: Tue 06 Aug 2013, 16:16:32
Location: Wisconsin's Dreamland

Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 10 Feb 2019, 20:07:46

KaiserJeep wrote:Correct, vtsnowedin.

As for the "mass die-off beginning", as I have said many times, the present mass extinction began about 1800 and has been ongoing for about two centuries. I suspect that in most people's minds, the meaning of "mass dieoff" is when the rate of death very much exceeds the birthrate and the overall world population noticeably and suddenly declines. My guess about THAT is somewhere between two and five centuries from today. Don't hold your breath while waiting.

I doubt that it will be that far in the future. Many countries populations now exceed the local ability to produce food. Egypt and sub Saharan Africa for example. They are dependent on food imports from the countries with a food surplus. USA ,Canada, Russia etc. Let those imports stop for any reason and hundreds of millions could starve within a year. And of course while staving desperate people will go to war making the problem worse by exponential factors.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9770
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 02:00:00

Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 10 Feb 2019, 20:17:17

Imagine if you will one of the Bernie progressive Dems. winning the presidency in 2020 with sufficient majorities in both houses to actually enact the "Green new deal" and forcing USA farmers to become zero CO2 and Methane emitters. No milk in the cooler. no steaks on the grill and no extra food to export to anyone. 8O
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9770
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 02:00:00

Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby efarmer » Sun 10 Feb 2019, 20:46:10

The mass dieoff shall begin tomorrow around sunrise. That is when I go into the loo and start spraying the tub and toilet with chlorine bleach and then reaching for the scrub brush. If you are not a pinkish fungus, you can rest easy, if you are, efarmer has got your pink little fungal nose.
User avatar
efarmer
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2003
Joined: Fri 17 Mar 2006, 03:00:00

Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 10 Feb 2019, 22:18:47

I haven't followed this thread but it doesn't take long for something to pop into the news suggesting a malthusian catastrophe is inevitable, like this one:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... -of-nature

This sort of stuff bothers me a lot more than peak oil. The tunnel-vision here on peak oil may be understandable, but it's misguided.
EXTREME PREDICTION LEADERBOARD
"this is peak now. Wanna bet? The Real Pain starts . . . now." (11/21/18)" --pstarr
"$0/barrel soon as per etp." (12/30/18)" --pstarr
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!!!
asg70
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2414
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 13:17:28

Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby careinke » Mon 11 Feb 2019, 02:00:56

Ibon wrote:Go ahead Newfie and take a good hard look at the 4th generation of humans removed from gutting an animal, cleaning fish, foraging for tubers and greens. The skill set you assume is still there to ravage and plunder the remaining ecosystems is woefully missing. Is there an App that will show them how?


Well, I learned how raise,slaughter, butcher, and process a hog from Youtube. Just recently I butchered a half a steer which I also learned to do from a female butcher on Youtube.

You tube is your friend. :)
Cliff (Start a rEVOLution, grow a garden)
User avatar
careinke
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3609
Joined: Mon 01 Jan 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Pacific Northwest

Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby derhundistlos » Mon 11 Feb 2019, 02:11:32

"Popular sentiments about DOOM abound here at peakoil.com, but the statistics don't support any such conclusions." Kaiser Jeep

This ranks as the most assinine denialist statement of the century. You must be living in a cave and engaging a selective reading of the multitudes of evidence being served up on nearly a daily bases outlining the broad array of ecological destruction.

All past civilizations proffered a similarly arrogant understanding of their world at their apex. This false sense of security spelled civilization-ending disaster when the chickens came home to roost due to the consequences of an unsustainable lifestyle.

"Human nature will not change. Ergo men do not learn very much from the lessons of history. We do not learn and as a consequence, we are doomed to repeat our great errors. In any future great national trial, compared with the men of this, we shall have as weak and as strong, as silly and as wise, as bad and as good."

Abraham Lincoln
derhundistlos
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 65
Joined: Thu 17 Mar 2016, 19:31:48

Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 11 Feb 2019, 07:04:36

careinke wrote:
Ibon wrote:Go ahead Newfie and take a good hard look at the 4th generation of humans removed from gutting an animal, cleaning fish, foraging for tubers and greens. The skill set you assume is still there to ravage and plunder the remaining ecosystems is woefully missing. Is there an App that will show them how?


Well, I learned how raise,slaughter, butcher, and process a hog from Youtube. Just recently I butchered a half a steer which I also learned to do from a female butcher on Youtube.

You tube is your friend. :)


OK Careinke, I concede. BUT, you who have been working the land and immersing in Permaculture and other agrarian pursuits, you turned on that Youtube video already with a big big backpack full of self sufficiency and self reliance skills.

Now go ahead and imagine your average suburban or urban inhabitant wielding that knife, making the initial kill, etc. etc.
Our resiliency resembles an invasive weed. We are the Kudzu Ape
blog: http://blog.mounttotumas.com/
website: http://www.mounttotumas.com
User avatar
Ibon
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7035
Joined: Fri 03 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Volcan, Panama

Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 11 Feb 2019, 07:08:41

asg70 wrote:I haven't followed this thread but it doesn't take long for something to pop into the news suggesting a malthusian catastrophe is inevitable, like this one:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... -of-nature

This sort of stuff bothers me a lot more than peak oil. The tunnel-vision here on peak oil may be understandable, but it's misguided.


I will repeat what I wrote previously on this topic. My source is the many entomologists who come visit us.

The source of the problem is multiple, agriculture practices at the top of the list, secondary is invasive species which wasn't even mentioned in the article, then electric light pollution and finally climate change. By far the biggest source of the problem is intensive monoculture agriculture and the use of petrochemicals. Imagine human population receding and agricultural fields going to seed. How fast would the bounce back be of insects when pesticide free landscapes covered in weeds and pioneer species recolonizes former monoculture agricultural fields?
Our resiliency resembles an invasive weed. We are the Kudzu Ape
blog: http://blog.mounttotumas.com/
website: http://www.mounttotumas.com
User avatar
Ibon
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7035
Joined: Fri 03 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Volcan, Panama

Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 11 Feb 2019, 07:48:28

Newfie wrote:

But this starts to become like arguing religion. Something I have little time for. Your belief system requires a rebirth, a rejuvenation. Mine does not, it accepts dead as dead, fini, no more. Not that I want that end, I despise it, but I accept it is likely.


The consequences coming will be biblical and I do recognize that dead may just be dead, that there may be no redemption on the other side of the bottleneck, that we royally fucked ourselves. This is not impossible.

This is like arguing religion, because this is THE existential crisis of our times.

Civilizations rise and fall and usually .............rise again. I am most interested in what gets embedded in culture going through the bottleneck and how this lays the foundation for what civilization rebuilds afterwards.

Make no mistake, my training as an ecologist and amateur naturalist recognizes fully the threats to biodiversity. That a rise in extinctions already begun will accelerate as part of this process. I also have witnessed and have a deep appreciation for the bounce back that happens when natural ecosystems are given the chance to regenerate. Key is those pockets of refuge populations out of which recolonization can occur.

The same applies to humans by the way, those pockets of refuge humanity that gets through the bottleneck will carry forth whatever lessons learned.

Finally, as I mentioned, these reflections are biased by our attempts to cope with what we see unfolding. To hold on to that thread of redemption where humans learn from what they will pass through. That this will effect culture and our values regarding how we treat our mother earth is not just empty hope. There is precedent as I mentioned earlier in how we do plan strategically and logistically for what lies within parameters that we choose to value. Natural ecosystems, the air we breath, the marine environments, our climate, have all been externalities that have not fallen within the parameters of where we apply strategic planning. This is what very well may change passing through the bottleneck.

May change. I am not saying it will. And if any of you are saying they wont then you are fixed. I have always presented my case here as a big fat maybe....... perhaps in my most positive spin on things I sometimes say this is probable. How can we not learn something from biblical consequences?
Our resiliency resembles an invasive weed. We are the Kudzu Ape
blog: http://blog.mounttotumas.com/
website: http://www.mounttotumas.com
User avatar
Ibon
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7035
Joined: Fri 03 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Volcan, Panama

PreviousNext

Return to Environment, Weather & Climate

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 14 guests