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THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 24 Jan 2019, 02:46:46

BTW, if you go back on some of these EV threads, the open question was whether Tesla would succeed with the Model 3 or go down as merely a catalyst for the rest of the industry. From my vantage point it appears the latter is actually starting to play out. They are hurting in just about every area. And supposedly Porsche is saying the majority of those signing up for reservations for Taycans are Tesla customers looking to leave the brand. The same is probably true of Audi eTron and Jaguar iPace. The bloom is off the rose for a lot of one-time loyal customers.

For the longest time EV nuts put all their faith in Tesla and Tesla alone but we're on the cusp of an era where EVs are here to stay. There will be choice. More vehicles, larger production runs, lower price-points. Better features (like dual motor and faster charge speeds). More standardized CCS charging stations. All this will take place under the backdrop of Tesla continuing on this slow-motion trainwreck in which fanbois will continue to strain themselves to avoid conceding how mismanaged it is under Musk.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby GHung » Thu 24 Jan 2019, 09:25:00

baha wrote:....... The holy grail of EVs is watts/mile. That is what they need to compete with. Our future will be energy constrained.


That would be watt-hrs/mile (or kWh/mile). Sorry. I'm a stickler for proper units, especially in technical discussions.

Thanks for the updates from the real world (such as it is), Baha. I enjoy hearing about your experiences.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 24 Jan 2019, 09:46:30

baha wrote:Our future will be energy constrained.


If you're that concerned then one of Revi's quadricycles is what you're after.

The main reason to max out efficiency is the cost of batteries, not electrons.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby StarvingLion » Thu 24 Jan 2019, 21:00:57

The truth is, EV's are a Diesel Car in Disguise.

They loot the Power Grid until massive #'s of Diesel Stations are required to stabilize it. The EV Crook makes claim on the Diesel while taxing the shit out of Diesel Trucks that do the actual work.

So the story goes that EV growth = Diesel Fuel Growth...nothing has changed.

Where does the Diesel come from?

Ans: Bankrupting the Oil Companies.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 25 Jan 2019, 01:37:41

baha wrote:The Porsche has a speculative starting price of $80,000. That can only compete with the Model X. Does it seat 6? I don't know. I don't pay attention to cars that don't exist yet. It clearly is not intended to be a car for the masses. Porsche has never made a car for the masses. So no threat to the Model 3 here.

ASG - By your own criteria this means Porsche can never be successful.

The Tesla Model S starts at around $84,750 per the Tesla Model S design website.

https://www.tesla.com/models/design?#battery

Porsche just announced doubling their manufacturing rate on the Taycan to 40,000 units a year.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/23/this-is ... p-for.html

That puts it right up with the Model S in rough volume. Maybe ahead, given that Musk just laid off a bunch of Model S (and X) workers. And of course, Tesla recently discontinued the Model 75 KwH versions of the Models S and X (apparently to distinguish them from the Model 3 better).

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/23/tesla-l ... ction.html

Although Model 3 prices can exceed $80,000 at the top end, I don't think Porsche wants or needs to compete with the 3 -- it's the S that the Taycan will initially compete with.

I'm not buying your claims that Porsche can't compete with Tesla luxury or that it can't produce in volume needed to compete. They're just getting started in the BEV business.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 25 Jan 2019, 10:03:13

Porsche has a lot of experience on how to do everything other than the electric drivetrain. Tesla had the drivetrain and has struggled to learn how to do...everything else (manufacturing/qc/customer service, etc...). Which gap in knowledge is harder to bridge? Note that they're building the Taycan as a trackable car, not just good for drag racing. They know better how to build cars for handling. And Porsche is only part of the larger VW group, hence the Audi eTron GT (glorified badge engineering) and various other tech sharing down the line.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 25 Jan 2019, 14:06:39

asg70 wrote:And Porsche is only part of the larger VW group

That's a huge point. Not only can Porsche fall back on the profits from its own ongoing ICE cars, but from VW's ICE cars as a whole, while it ramps up its knowledge base re the BEV platform.

Given how great many of its cars are (if only money were no object), it's certainly easy to have confidence in their engineering team over time.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby GHung » Fri 25 Jan 2019, 15:03:16

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
asg70 wrote:And Porsche is only part of the larger VW group

That's a huge point. Not only can Porsche fall back on the profits from its own ongoing ICE cars, but from VW's ICE cars as a whole, while it ramps up its knowledge base re the BEV platform.

Given how great many of its cars are (if only money were no object), it's certainly easy to have confidence in their engineering team over time.


The VW Group has plans to produce 25 all-electric models by 2020. One hopes their knowledge base is pretty advanced at this point. They have a strong presence in China and are committing almost $50 billion to their battery division.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 25 Jan 2019, 15:10:43

GHung wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
asg70 wrote:And Porsche is only part of the larger VW group

That's a huge point. Not only can Porsche fall back on the profits from its own ongoing ICE cars, but from VW's ICE cars as a whole, while it ramps up its knowledge base re the BEV platform.

Given how great many of its cars are (if only money were no object), it's certainly easy to have confidence in their engineering team over time.


The VW Group has plans to produce 25 all-electric models by 2020. One hopes their knowledge base is pretty advanced at this point. They have a strong presence in China and are committing almost $50 billion to their battery division.

True. And I'm rooting for VW group to be successful, as a possible future BEV customer (they have a dealer within walking distance of my house).

What I'm not clear on is how much sharing goes on between VW and Porsche re engineering specifics. They're producing radically different cars at radically different price points, for customers with very different demands re performance.

Maybe for batteries, there is a lot of sharing -- I'm not "up' on the details of that, as I don't invest directly in that space.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby GHung » Fri 25 Jan 2019, 16:11:03

Outcast_Searcher wrote: ........
What I'm not clear on is how much sharing goes on between VW and Porsche re engineering specifics. They're producing radically different cars at radically different price points, for customers with very different demands re performance.

Maybe for batteries, there is a lot of sharing -- I'm not "up' on the details of that, as I don't invest directly in that space.


The Porsche Cayenne, VW Touareg, Audi Q7, Bentley Bentayga and the Lamborghini Urus (really cool car) all share the same basic platform and swap technology, depending on trim level, so, yeah, VW divisions share a lot of stuff. The Urus incorporates a lot of carbon fiber to save weight over its siblings/cousins. Anyway, they are all under the same VW roof.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 30 Jan 2019, 00:26:47

Porsche will be offering a sweet deal for fast-charging through Electrify America. It's not lifetime but it's good nonetheless, and helps challenge the notion that nobody will be able to duplicate Tesla's Supercharger network.

https://www.engadget.com/2019/01/28/por ... y-america/

Meanwhile, Tesla keeps making charging more and more expensive. The value-proposition of Tesla seems to be on a downward spiral as they hunker down for survival-mode while the other automakers are ramping up.

The whole fanboi cult surrounding Tesla will have a hard time holding out once the other automakers are matching or exceeding Tesla in metric after metric. Pragmatism beats tribal brand loyalty in the end.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Fri 01 Feb 2019, 13:45:21

Musk has steadily increased performance on "Insane Mode" in the Model S to maintain his "Fastest Car" status. Each time he does so, the massive current draw shortens the battery life and the motor reliability due to the added mechanical stress. I speculate that he finds good Marketing-related benefits.

BTW some battery-powered crawlers were seen at Moab UT over the last two years, courtesy of CalTech engineering students. They have proved to be very heavy and still are limited in range. Unlike the street cars, gear reduction is required for the extreme torque needed for a successful rock crawler. Highest performance crawler was an electric/hydraulic vehicle with a battery-powered hydraulic pump and four seperate hydraulic motors, one per wheel. When it busted a hose, it's day was over.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 01 Feb 2019, 14:03:30

baha wrote:She nailed it when the light changed and she was gone.

I don't get it. If life were only about 0-60 in 3 or 4 seconds, I suppose that would matter.

In the real world where the biggest issue I have re needing acceleration is merging after uphill ramps onto freeways, somehow, my 8ish second 4-banger Camry is JUST DANDY. Even way more acceleration than I need.

The vast majority of the middle class will be WAY more interested in things like if they can get their car conveniently and quickly serviced (a huge problem for Tesla, which it is very slow to address, especially compared to their car production), than whether they can win a drag race on the highway.

I wonder if many of the stories of Tesla motor failures within 5000 miles are due to customers experimenting with maximum acceleration due to Musk's aggressive marketing. When this happens after the warranty runs out, people will be singing some VERY negative Tesla tunes, given the cost of their after-warranty parts and service. Eventually, what goes around comes around, with marketing.

I've virtually never had my foot on the floor in one of my cars. Why would I want to stress the engine that way? It's not like I can't get plenty competent acceleration in normal traffic when needed at roughly halfway to the floor, and I want my cars to last well over a decade.

Funny thing, in my "horribly unreliable" ICE's, I've never had a significant engine problem. I just keep the oil changed and drive with sanity. My cars die of general old age, kind of like an old man.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Fri 01 Feb 2019, 14:58:05

Tesla vehicles by default have batteries and motors that are matched and optimized for long life. When a customer is interested in a "Performance" car, they charge a premium price and give him a different software option that enables the "Insane Mode". The extra warranty expense caused by this is the reason for the upcharge. The current hot performance car version would be the Model S with the Dual motors (aka AWD) and the smallest/lightest battery, and the "performance" option, which adds the "P" preface to the model ID.

Even regular Teslas such as Baha's Model 3, or the non-performance version of the Model S, still have respectable off-the-line acceleration. I'm with you, I would rather have the big battery with the longest range, in an AWD version for Winter traction, and the non-performance version for long reliable service. It would still be quick, just not "the fastest car in the World".
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 01 Feb 2019, 16:31:29

KaiserJeep wrote:Tesla vehicles by default have batteries and motors that are matched and optimized for long life. When a customer is interested in a "Performance" car, they charge a premium price and give him a different software option that enables the "Insane Mode". The extra warranty expense caused by this is the reason for the upcharge.

Well, part of the upcharge for performance versions is for expensive, more robust parts. Parts like better tires and brakes, for example.

And sure on the upgrade premium for wear and tear, but the concerns about excess wear and tear on the Tesla components under maximum stress are real enough for Tesla to still be issuing warnings about it. I remember reading about it, so did a quick search on "tesla insane mode warning" (based on my recollection) and got hits like:

https://electrek.co/2016/12/23/tesla-li ... unch-mode/
We reached out to Tesla to confirm if they are indeed limiting the output and a Tesla spokesperson sent us the following statement:

“Like other automakers, our performance vehicles continually monitor the condition of various components and may employ limiting strategies to reduce fatigue on the powertrain.”

It’s understandable since, as previously mentioned, it’s nothing new when it comes to launch control systems for performance vehicles – the Tesla Model S P90D in Ludicrous mode can accelerate from 0 to 60 mph in 2.6 seconds and has over 500 hp. The problem is that there apparently wasn’t any communication about the limitation with owners. They could be using their vehicles as intended and wake up one day with a limited power output.


And then, apparently, Tesla reversed course on this restriction:

http://www.thedrive.com/tech/13877/tesl ... complaints
"We've listened and are happy to tell you that for those that wish to do so, you can again enable maximum battery performance independently from Launch Mode, ensuring that you have maximum flexibility in how you use your car," Jon McNeill, Tesla president of sales and services, said. The fix was part of the 2017.32 software update launched last week.

Tesla previously justified performance restrictions as a way to prevent excessive wear on components. It added a warning when drivers engaged Ludicrous Mode specifically mentioning "accelerated wear of the motor, gearbox, and battery."

If I owned such a car and had done scores or hundreds or even thousands of such launches, I woudn't expect great cooperation from the maker when I have premature drivetrain problems.

But at least Tesla is no longer marketing one thing, and then not letting their customers have it.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Fri 01 Feb 2019, 19:50:59

Don't forget, they sell the software options dearly. The extended range option is $8000 for 2019, the Ludicrous Mode is $20,000 alone. The actual hardware options are performance brakes, upgraded wheels/tires, and carbon fiber spoiler, for $3000. Air suspension is now standard and does not cost $3000 extra.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 01 Feb 2019, 20:31:02

KaiserJeep wrote:Don't forget, they sell the software options dearly. The extended range option is $8000 for 2019, the Ludicrous Mode is $20,000 alone. The actual hardware options are performance brakes, upgraded wheels/tires, and carbon fiber spoiler, for $3000. Air suspension is now standard and does not cost $3000 extra.

If they can sell that software and keep their customers happy and make a profit after repairs on the performance upgrades, MORE POWER TO THEM. I just think the jury is still out on that, as we won't know how happy the customers are overall until, say, a few years after the warranties expire, and the customers experience needing service they have to pay in full for.

I'm a great believer in capitalism and choice, as long as things are done with full disclosure and both sides behave ethically.

(OTOH, since FSD appears to be pure fantasy as far as the eye can see, I hope Tesla gets a massive class action suit by all the buyers of the expensive FSD option, which is apparently pure vaporware (aside from empty Elon Musk claims). This assumes, of course, that true level 5 FSD doesn't appear that works on all Tesla's sold with that promise, within a few years or so. I believe that proof of little green men is more likely in the mean time.)
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Fri 01 Feb 2019, 23:09:03

The problem with any self drive feature is that people will expect perfection, and not get it. It escapes their notice that humans are already imperfect drivers. IMHO, several self driving cars are already safer than human drivers under normal road conditions. Exception conditions will always challenge both humans and self-driving cars.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby dolanbaker » Fri 08 Feb 2019, 15:56:48

A new battery technology that will improve on Tesla's current batteries.
Tesla has announced the acquisition of Maxwell Technologies ($MXWL), a San Diego-based battery technology company for $218M, in an all stock deal. Maxwell specializes in ultracapacitors & has recently validated its breakthrough Dry Battery Electrode technology. Will Tesla leverage Maxwell's IP to bring longer range, more efficient BEVs to market?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=60EiAklzj9I
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 08 Feb 2019, 17:43:29

dolanbaker wrote:A new battery technology that will improve on Tesla's current batteries.
Tesla has announced the acquisition of Maxwell Technologies ($MXWL), a San Diego-based battery technology company for $218M, in an all stock deal. Maxwell specializes in ultracapacitors & has recently validated its breakthrough Dry Battery Electrode technology. Will Tesla leverage Maxwell's IP to bring longer range, more efficient BEVs to market?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=60EiAklzj9I

Looking at Maxwell's stock, Maxwell was failing. If they have great technology, why can't they sell it profitably? I'll believe there is something truly meaningful to come out of this deal for Tesla when I see it.

I think Musk is either throwing some money at hoping for a hail Mary on some battery improvement, or it's just another distraction. Look how well Solar City is working out (NOT).
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