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Polar Vortex 2019

Re: Polar Vortex 2019

Unread postby yellowcanoe » Tue 29 Jan 2019, 14:18:24

kublikhan wrote:Also the Bush administration pushed to call it "climate change" because it sounded less alarming than global warming:


Reminds me of the oil industry in Alberta promoting the name "Oil Sands" in place of the original (and more accurate) name "Tar Sands".
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Re: Polar Vortex 2019

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 29 Jan 2019, 16:34:22

Reminds me of the oil industry in Alberta promoting the name "Oil Sands" in place of the original (and more accurate) name "Tar Sands".


not a very good analogy at all. The terms oil sands and tar sands were used interchangeably (sometimes in the same sentence) in the early days of Athabasca and Cold Lake deposits development. When I started in the business there was no notion of what was the correct term as neither really explained the nature of the deposit which was in reality bitumen mixed with sand and water. By the eighties the terms became somewhat politicized with enviros using tar sands as a suggestion the oil was somehow dirty and oil industry supporters using oil sands suggesting it was simply oil in sand, neither being correct of course.

On the other hand "global warming" was always meant to infer the earth was warming measured by temperature due almost entirely to the influence of humans. Climate change refers to changes in precipitation and other climate phenomena and seems to be always blamed on global warming although in fact the climate has always been changing, well before industrialization or even man. Both of these terms have also been politicized which in itself might be where they are similar to the oil sands tar sands comparison.
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Re: Polar Vortex 2019

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 29 Jan 2019, 17:17:16

Well there you go Cog, you’ve had it explained. All clear now?

Climate Change is a Capitalist moniker to calm people and prop up consumption.
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Re: Polar Vortex 2019

Unread postby jedrider » Tue 29 Jan 2019, 20:43:10

Newfie wrote:Well there you go Cog, you’ve had it explained. All clear now?

Climate Change is a Capitalist moniker to calm people and prop up consumption.


I always call it 'climate change' due to 'global warming', succinct and to the point.

Yes, we don't want to wake up the proletariat.
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Re: Polar Vortex 2019

Unread postby dissident » Wed 30 Jan 2019, 01:14:22

yellowcanoe wrote:
Cog wrote:I understand why the term global warming isn't used anymore. Not scary enough.


Nope, the reason for using the term "climate change" instead "global warming" is because the changes we are seeing do not always manifest themselves in the form of higher temperatures. Temperature measurements show that the world is getting warmer but we are also seeing more movement of cold arctic air into regions quite far to the south of the arctic. Which is exactly what a lot of Americans in the central and eastern part of the lower 48 are experiencing right now. In recent years these incursions of cold arctic air have become a regular event and not just in North America. Alaskans OTOH seem to be getting a lot more incursions of warm air from the south thereby resulting in temperatures rarely or never before seen in the winter months.


That assorted morons still yap about "coldest winter ever" as if it proves anything other than their ignorance and stupidity says it all about humanity's response to "climate change". Losers will be in denial even after things go south spectacularly. Self-delusion is always easier than accepting uncomfortable facts.

Here are some reminders for the "skeptics":

1) Global warming means heat energy accumulation in the global atmosphere-ocean system. This system exhibits something known as circulation (you know, wind and currents, if you have ever heard of them) so that the temperature varies from location to location even if there is heat energy accumulation. The "polar vortex" is one such circulation feature.

2) The polar caps will remain net heat loss regions for centuries to come and we will be seeing winter every year. So polar cold air masses will keep on forming and idiots in middle latitudes will keep getting exposed to them and will continue to bleat about "coldest winter ever". No law of nature requires heat accumulation in the system to be uniform. This is some fetish of so-called skeptics.

3) Cold winter air masses will not save humanity from global warming. Agriculture will collapse regardless since we do not grow anything in sub-zero temperatures. Greenhouses and sci-fi agricultural domes of the future are irrelevant since they lack scale today and cannot be scaled economically. The increased circulation variability we are seeing already associated with thermal energy accumulation, is going to be a prime contributor to crop production decline. A wheat field can be ruined by high winds.
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Re: Polar Vortex 2019

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 30 Jan 2019, 01:33:58

dissident wrote:Here are some reminders for the "skeptics":

Good summary, dissident. Unfortunately, there's no evidence the AGW deniers will pay attention to logic and evidence, any more than the fast crash economic doomers will pay attention to any economic data which points out that their constant claims that "THIS TIME economic doom is surely in our face" don't make much sense. Or consider their horrendous track record for such claims.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Polar Vortex 2019

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 30 Jan 2019, 06:42:30

I don’t think Cog is a denier or a skeptic.

He IS an agitator.
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Re: Polar Vortex 2019

Unread postby Cog » Wed 30 Jan 2019, 07:06:27

Newfie wrote:I don’t think Cog is andenier or a skeptic.

He IS an agitator.


I help people refine their arguments. :P
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Re: Polar Vortex 2019

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 30 Jan 2019, 07:40:21

Thank you Dissident. Now, maybe the agitators will agitate on another thread haha
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Re: Polar Vortex 2019

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 30 Jan 2019, 12:22:52

Looker – If one paid attention it was environmentalists that drove the shift from “global warming” to “climate change”. I suspect to counter deniers using cold spells as a basis for their arguments. Of course, this had both sides confusing “weather” with “climate”. Unfortunate IMHO now too many believers jumping on every extreme weather event as proof of CC. Of course, this allows deniers a cheap shot using long ago extreme weather events to argue against CC since such episodes are not unusual in recorded histories.

Back in the early 70’s when I was an undergrad in Earth Sciences it wasn’t difficult to foresee an increase in atmospheric CO2 as a result of increasing fossil fuel consumption. I even wrote a term paper covering potential increases in soil erosion as a result of changing rain patterns due to changes in atmospheric circulation changes. But back then most environmentalists (of the few that there were) weren’t paying much attention to CC. Most were focused on local air pollution due to FF consumption. It was peak time for focusing on California air pollution from auto emissions. But the focus was on bad effects at ground level and not in the atmosphere.
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Re: Polar Vortex 2019

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 30 Jan 2019, 13:11:53

ROCKMAN wrote:Looker – If one paid attention it was environmentalists that drove the shift from “global warming” to “climate change”. I suspect to counter deniers using cold spells as a basis for their arguments. Of course, this had both sides confusing “weather” with “climate”. Unfortunate IMHO now too many believers jumping on every extreme weather event as proof of CC. Of course, this allows deniers a cheap shot using long ago extreme weather events to argue against CC since such episodes are not unusual in recorded histories.

Absolutely.

I remember after Hurricane Sandy, the endless blabbering of the talking heads on CNN about climate change and how it caused the hurricane.

As an AGW believer who tends toward an alarmist (over time), I was yelling at my TV: "Idiots! You're doing the same nonsense that deniers do! STAY OFF MY FREAKING SIDE!!!"

I suppose that expecting rational policy from a largely irrational and relatively uneducated (re science) public, is the height of irrationality itself. ** sigh ** The human condition.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Polar Vortex 2019

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 30 Jan 2019, 13:16:18

Just an example Rock, of the common problem of people being misinformed or uninformed especially as regards the hard sciences. At least here people usually speak from an informed position. Usually haha. Seriously, whatever label one prefers, the science clearly indicates, the climate is being forced via ongoing CO2 emissions. And it is also scientifically clear that greenhouse gases will warm the planet
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Re: Polar Vortex 2019

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 30 Jan 2019, 13:34:31

I remember as an 8 year old, discussing the idea of pollution from all the cars, as the global population grows, with my dad, riding around in his new '67 Mustang, in the country. (That was a fantastic car, even 10 years later, which was really something at that time).

I pointed out that there seemed to be an awful lot of green space and a relatively small amount of city. I think he said something about us just not knowing yet, but that if the global population kept growing rapidly, people would have to change at some point -- but it would become obvious by then.

Reasonable intuitive thinking for back then. Especially for an eight year old. We're doing something very wrong as a society when a large proportion of adults still rely on intuition over science, and that then affects things like basic policy -- for all sorts of things like pollution, CO2 production, the use of vaccines, the use of GMO food, and on and on.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Polar Vortex 2019

Unread postby Whitefang » Thu 31 Jan 2019, 04:05:49

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/201 ... 90130&te=1

Then the Cold Arrives
The split takes two weeks to affect the weather: It warps the polar jet stream, bringing freezing arctic air south and warm air north. Parts of the Midwest were expected on Tuesday night to have a wind chill of minus 60 degrees.



Great graphics from that fake news paper based in New York loaded with forbidden fruit :twisted:
Dr Judah C again, working things up to a permanent split in the not to distant future.
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Re: Polar Vortex 2019

Unread postby jawagord » Thu 31 Jan 2019, 11:32:47

It's a good thing we know about the polar vortex being destabilized by Climate Change, otherwise a lay person might come to the conclusion that we don't have global warming, that nothing has really changed when it comes to climate, that we continue to get winter and from time to time breaks records, and that this will continue to happen when you only have 100+ years of records to go by! Luckily we have people who know better to help us understand this conundrum. Now if you are skeptical on this cold connection to Climate Change remember it's necessary to invoke pretzel logic to comprehend it!

With a low temperature of -30°F as of 6:45am this morning, Rockford has broken the all-time record low temperature of -27°F set on 1/10/1982. Records for Rockford date back to 1905. Correction to previous record date.

The official low temperature at Chicago this morning was -21F. This shatters the previous record for Jan 31st, which was -12F set back 1985. In records that date back to the 1870s, this is only the 15th time Chicago has seen a daily low this cold or colder, yesterday was 14th.


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Don't deny the peak!
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Re: Polar Vortex 2019

Unread postby evilgenius » Thu 31 Jan 2019, 12:29:32

Outcast_Searcher wrote:I remember as an 8 year old, discussing the idea of pollution from all the cars, as the global population grows, with my dad, riding around in his new '67 Mustang, in the country. (That was a fantastic car, even 10 years later, which was really something at that time).

I pointed out that there seemed to be an awful lot of green space and a relatively small amount of city. I think he said something about us just not knowing yet, but that if the global population kept growing rapidly, people would have to change at some point -- but it would become obvious by then.

Reasonable intuitive thinking for back then. Especially for an eight year old. We're doing something very wrong as a society when a large proportion of adults still rely on intuition over science, and that then affects things like basic policy -- for all sorts of things like pollution, CO2 production, the use of vaccines, the use of GMO food, and on and on.

Statistics are not taught until college. I suppose it is thought that it takes so much to understand the subject that it is left until then. Why is that the case? How come the educational system doesn't cram math into children form very young, such that they will at least learn from it being a habit? I suspect that the educational system being relied upon as a socializing institution has something to do with it. Socialization requires winners and losers. It needs us to understand something and do some of its work for it, by parsing ourselves into classes. Maybe the American class system isn't the same as the British, but I think it still exists.We expect that it revolves around money, but really it revolves around your very point.

That being said, I don't want to infer that cramming beyond the setting of habits would do us that much good. Children have a way of turning off. I think the right path probably has much more to do with finding out what excites a person on an individual level, and then proving to them that without an entire set of knowledge beyond that specialization it is impossible to get that far with it. Thus, igniting a desire to learn that set of knowledge. People are afraid of this because they think it will only produce people whose only desire was to drive a truck or swing a hammer. I think we underestimate humanity when we doubt ourselves like that.
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Re: Polar Vortex 2019

Unread postby jedrider » Thu 31 Jan 2019, 15:36:22

Polar Vortex of the Mind!
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Re: Polar Vortex 2019

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 31 Jan 2019, 15:37:05

LOL...next jaw is going to claim that major hail storms in Dallas in August prove that Texas isn't very warm in the summer. The ice falling from the sky proves it (to a 'layman' at least :lol: :lol: :lol: ).
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Re: Polar Vortex 2019

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Fri 01 Feb 2019, 13:10:05

Information gleaned from the PBS News Hour broadcast yesterday January 31, about the State of Illinois, which has asked Manufacturing and Industrial plants to close voluntarily to free up electrical capacity for residential heating during the Polar Vortex. This was successful, the voluntary closures rolled back demand by 10%, which was enough to stabilize the overtaxed electrical grid. Presently Illinois gets electricity from (rounded to nearest whole percent):

1) 52% Nuclear energy, however the plants are aging and most are in the final decade of life unless they (again) extend the operating licenses.
2) 42% from Coal, Petroleum, and Natural Gas.
3) 6% from Wind and Solar renewable sources.

The way things are going, most if not all of those aging Nuclear plants will be replaced with Natural Gas co-generation facilities. The dependency on FF's will therefore grow to 80-90% within 2 decades. Renewables other than hydropower (which does not exist in the MidWest in the "Great Plains" states) are not suitable to replace Nuclear as stable baseline power plants.

It kinda looks like in the absence of true political leadership on Energy, the problem gets lots worse before it gets better.
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