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Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby StarvingLion » Fri 11 Jan 2019, 21:06:51

EOR upgrades for the Large Oil Fields will already cost trillions of USD.

By 2022, when NorthCentral Ghawar goes into a much higher decline rate, the EOR upgrades will cost 10's of Trillions.

Game Over.

The entire world is so super sensitive to NorthCentral Ghawar decline rate that World Oil Production by 2023 will resemble the production chart of Venezuela.

In other words,

You're dead by 2025 for sure.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby StarvingLion » Fri 11 Jan 2019, 21:10:08

Ask rockdoc why he doesn't mention the word, Nuclear, any more.

He thinks KSA will go to Amazon.com and order 16 fission reactors for 80 billion. What a fool.

Why doesn't he talk about the fact that Sodium Fast Neutron Fission Reactors have never replaced the existing fleet of LWR's in America, Germany, Japan, France, etc.

Its because he would have to admit that EROEI is important and makes it impossible to do so.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby Abdii » Sat 12 Jan 2019, 11:48:43

StarvingLion wrote:EOR upgrades for the Large Oil Fields will already cost trillions of USD.

By 2022, when NorthCentral Ghawar goes into a much higher decline rate, the EOR upgrades will cost 10's of Trillions.

Game Over.

The entire world is so super sensitive to NorthCentral Ghawar decline rate that World Oil Production by 2023 will resemble the production chart of Venezuela.

In other words,

You're dead by 2025 for sure.


Hi StarvingLion i would appreciate if you could respond to my question. You mentioned about Ghawar decline, how do you know this if don’t mind me asking? We know that oil discoveries has minimal since 2014 and the worlds conventional oil has been in a decline since 2016, US shale oil has been covering the deficit.

What really matters is worlds conventional oil, seems like atm its in a steady decline but when will the worlds conventional oil be in a rapid decline causing an oil apocalypse? When will it catch up to us and kill bau? Because i know once the conventional oil declines rapily its game over. Do you think it will happen arund 2020-2021? When do you think the global oil production will resemble the production chart of Venezuela?

Thank You
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 12 Jan 2019, 12:09:00

Ask rockdoc why he doesn't mention the word, Nuclear, any more.


I guess it has something to do with the fact I never mentioned it more than in passing? :roll:
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 17 Jan 2019, 13:13:38

One solar panel can't produce enough energy to produce another solar panel. Someone said that 10 solar panels can produce enough energy to produce1 solar panel (EROEI 1:10). Well...that just proves how dumb we people are.

Yes...EROEI matters as a matter of fact.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby GHung » Thu 17 Jan 2019, 13:34:08

Yoshua wrote:One solar panel can't produce enough energy to produce another solar panel. Someone said that 10 solar panels can produce enough energy to produce1 solar panel (EROEI 1:10).......


"Someone said"? Right. Someone said Jesus was going to ride into the Vatican on a Harley last year. Haven't heard much about that since. What I DO know is that my first PV panels have been in continuous service for 24 years, have produced hundreds (thousands?) of kWhs of electricity and pumped tens-of-thousands of gallons of water,, and are still functioning at or near their rated output. I NEVER worried about their EROEI once in all those years, nor have I wished I had done all that work with petroleum fuels or nasty grid electricity. Color me dumb, eh?

Image

See the "10-94" production date at the bottom of the label? They aren't even out of warranty until October, but I doubt I'll worry about that much.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 17 Jan 2019, 17:30:44

Yoshua wrote:One solar panel can't produce enough energy to produce another solar panel. Someone said that 10 solar panels can produce enough energy to produce1 solar panel (EROEI 1:10). Well...that just proves how dumb we people are.

Yes...EROEI matters as a matter of fact.
Even if that were remotely true ,which it is not, you could build panels with hydro or wind power when available and in effect be moving that power from it's fixed location to distant places and years in the future. That will often be worth doing even if the EROEI is negative.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby EdwinSm » Fri 18 Jan 2019, 01:31:55

Regarding solar panels and EROEI. Here is the response from a leading Finnish firm to the question (note: it relates to the situation in a high latitude country) [This in not the firm from whom I bought my solar panels, so I am not under any obligation to them!]

The solar module can never produce more energy than its production has used or save more CO2 emissions than it has produced...
Naps answers:
The amount of electrical energy needed to produce a solar panel depends on the production equipment. Similarly, the energy produced by itself varies depending on the installation site. However, the "repayment time" of energy is 2-3 years, ie less than 10% of the life of the solar panel. Production-related CO2 emissions will vary depending on where the production takes place and what kind of electricity. As a rule, however, it can be said that CO2 emissions from panel manufacturing are covered in less than two years by the panel's own clean electricity production.

https://napssolar.com/en/what-photovoltaic-energy/frequently-asked-questions
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby Yoshua » Fri 18 Jan 2019, 02:08:28

A study by the EU calculated that the EROEI of a solar panel is today 7:1 if it is connected to the grid, and 2:1 if it is connected to a battery.

Although they forgot to calculate the energy needed to build the electric grid.

And then of course we have to build all the machines that use electricity.

We have solar panels only because we still have positive EROEI from fossil fuels.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby charmcitysking » Fri 18 Jan 2019, 03:57:31

Yoshua wrote:A study by the EU calculated that the EROEI of a solar panel is today 7:1 if it is connected to the grid, and 2:1 if it is connected to a battery.

Although they forgot to calculate the energy needed to build the electric grid.

And then of course we have to build all the machines that use electricity.

We have solar panels only because we still have positive EROEI from fossil fuels.


Why would “they” need to factor in the energy cost of building the electricity grid if a solar panel is added to the grid? The grid is already built; it’s not going anywhere.

The same with your point on electricity-consuming machines - this energy has already been expended. Your logic is quite flawed here - you seem to be double counting inputs.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 18 Jan 2019, 09:00:40

Why would “they” need to factor in the energy cost of building the electricity grid if a solar panel is added to the grid? The grid is already built; it’s not going anywhere.


The reason that the initial energy used to build the system must be included is because the grid IS going somewhere. It is headed for the junk yard, and that journey started the day it was put into service. It is wearing out, and its maintenance during its operation, and its replacement when it reaches the end of its economic life must to be included.

Hall, ourselves and several other people have looked very closely at the minimum EROI needed to run a modern civilization; like the present one. Hall came up with an EROI of 7:1, we came up with 6.9:1 and others have produced similar numbers. Solar is a border line case, but if Solar was more efficient than oil it would have already replaced it. Petroleum presently has an ERoEI of 8.3:1, and that will fall to its "dead state" of 6.9:1 by the end of the decade. Solar will need to accomplish some significant breakthroughs in the very near future to be able to replace oil. Of course, just the cost of scrapping out the present oil infrastructure over the next decade would completely bankrupt the world! An economy that is completely founded on its profit margin without consideration for its sustainability will always be heading for a bad end.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby GHung » Fri 18 Jan 2019, 09:03:54

Yoshua wrote:A study by the EU calculated that the EROEI of a solar panel is today 7:1 if it is connected to the grid, and 2:1 if it is connected to a battery.

Although they forgot to calculate the energy needed to build the electric grid.

And then of course we have to build all the machines that use electricity.

We have solar panels only because we still have positive EROEI from fossil fuels.


Image

I wonder what the energy payback time is for the Three Gorges Dam. CO2? That's a lot of concrete. Environmental/historical/cultural impacts?
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby GHung » Fri 18 Jan 2019, 09:16:37

shortonoil wrote:[ ....... if Solar was more efficient than oil it would have already replaced it.

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/


Replace 150 years of oil infrastructure in 20ish years? Poppycock. And an argument could be made that solar IS slowly displacing petroleum consumption, or at least reducing growth of said petroleum consumption.

I know it has at my place. In 20 years, growing our PV system and solar hot water has reduced our propane use from around 400 gallons per year to less than 50. and we rarely have to run the generator these days. Further, we haven't paid an electric bill in 21 years = no coal burned for grid power.
Then, again, petroleum vs. solar has always been largely an apples/oranges strawman argument.

It's all solar power in the end, just like the wood in our stove, keeping our house warm this morning.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 18 Jan 2019, 11:03:55

Replace 150 years of oil infrastructure in 20ish years? Poppycock. And an argument could be made that solar IS slowly displacing petroleum consumption, or at least reducing growth of said petroleum consumption.


There is also the argument, which is very valid, that the replacement of oil with solar is happening as the EROI of solar is going up, while the EROI of oil is going down. Solar will really begin to grow when the two become the same. The question is when does that happen, and does it happen before the present system is no longer around to use the Solar. With the world at Peak Fossil Fuels (PFF), peak coal, peak NG (according to BP), and Peak Oil the time line is getting very thin. A Manhattan Project may make it possible, but we seem to lack the political will to accomplish it, or just about anything. The political system is a mess; the Democrats are still trying to figure out how they are going to get to Europe for the latest something, or another meeting. Neither side appears to be much interested in replacing the oil industry. To put a massive replacement effort into effect to replace oil the world will need oil. The oil industry is not likely to be very cooperative? It is sort of a Catch 22 situation.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby StarvingLion » Fri 18 Jan 2019, 20:52:05

Europe is a Thermodynamic DeadZone

and

America is in a Thermodynamic Coma
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