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When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Cog » Thu 10 Jan 2019, 04:34:01

Whatever gets me outside of monkey poo throwing distance.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Revi » Thu 10 Jan 2019, 11:00:54

I am reading a book about the Spanish Flu right now, Pandemic 1918 by Catherine Arnold. It really wiped out some people. The losses were staggering. It killed 550,000 in the US, and the population was much lower then. Worldwide they think it took out 100 million people. Remember that world population was just 1.5 billion. 20% of the infected died and 1/3 of the world was infected.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 10 Jan 2019, 11:16:10

Revi wrote:I am reading a book about the Spanish Flu right now, Pandemic 1918 by Catherine Arnold. It really wiped out some people. The losses were staggering. It killed 550,000 in the US, and the population was much lower then. Worldwide they think it took out 100 million people. Remember that world population was just 1.5 billion. 20% of the infected died and 1/3 of the world was infected.
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Pandemics are nasty. And trying to predict a global one is apparently about as difficult as accurately predicting the price of oil.

So, yes, there's something really bad that could happen, just like a big meteor could strike the earth, etc. OTOH, let's not pretend that medical science, communication, etc. isn't improving, and couldn't likely help deal with such a catastrophe (nasty as it would still be).

For example, if people are really scared about catching a big flu, many first worlders could literally stay home 99% or more of the time given the internet, package delivery, etc. Unlike in 1918.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Revi » Thu 10 Jan 2019, 11:20:29

I hope you are right. It spread quickly to all corners of the earth. Maybe we could get people vaccinated...
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 10 Jan 2019, 11:26:57

Speaking of the subject of rapidly spreading diseases, yesterday at my GP, I was advised to get a Hep. A shot by the nurse. After reading the pamphlet with the list of groups who should get it, I told the doctor: "What's up with this? I'm in none of these groups. What am I missing?"

His response (paraphrased: Over the past year, it's suddenly spreading rapidly in KY. Last year we had something like a tenfold increase in infections (roughl 3000 new cases in 2018). And since it is spread by fecal matter, clearly the problem for you would be eating out, with employees not washing their hands.

Apparently risks of taking the vaccine are minimal, though you need two doses at 6 month intervals for long term protection. My reaction was the same as for a flu shot -- aside from the band-aid and a slightly sore arm muscle, I noticed nothing.

...

The doctor made an editorial comment the doomer crowd will just love "We're becoming a third world country."

Now, I'll say it, and Pops will do doubt go ballistic, but it's hard to imagine that illegal aliens have nothing to do with this, IMO.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 10 Jan 2019, 11:32:02

Revi wrote:I hope you are right. It spread quickly to all corners of the earth. Maybe we could get people vaccinated...

I'm confused. People in the US (who are paying attention and take the advice of doctors) get vaccinated for multiple strains of flu annually (best educated guess for which strains from the CDC, etc). Greatly helping limit widespread outbreaks is one of the key benefits of doing that.

From now on I'm getting my shot earlier, and stopping my frequent exposure to crowds of people during the cold months. Too many people run around while sick and expose lots of other people, IMO.

...

Now, what I'm hoping for is a big breakthrough re the "universal" flu vaccine companies are working on. It will probably be ready for the general public the year after I die, just like the flying car, etc.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 10 Jan 2019, 13:06:58

A few years ago, not many, there was a “public service” billboard in Philly advising people to wash their hands after dedicating. Clearly aimed at a minority audience. M

Someone did some swipe tests on NYC subway car rainlings and found all kinds of nasty stuff, fecal matter was common.

I suspect our next big pandemic will be drug resistant virus.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 10 Jan 2019, 13:18:31

Newfie wrote:A few years ago, not many, there was a “public service” billboard in Philly advising people to wash their hands after dedicating. Clearly aimed at a minority audience. M

Someone did some swipe tests on NYC subway car rainlings and found all kinds of nasty stuff, fecal matter was common.

I suspect our next big pandemic will be drug resistant virus.

I can't say for women, but from observation, an appalling number of men, even relatively educated men, often do no hand washing after using public rest rooms. I observed this for years while working at IBM in a building full of mainly college educated computer programmers. Maybe it doesn't matter much for peeing, but jeez.

I don't know if people aren't taught this while growing up, just assume it doesn't matter or what.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 10 Jan 2019, 13:23:48

Newfie wrote:I suspect our next big pandemic will be drug resistant virus.

That's a scary possibility, IMO.

And that's another thing that bothers me. Doctors give antibiotics out like candy, because that's what their patients want. Whether they need them or not. The overall public interest should be considered.

When I go to the doctor, I'm seeking advice. That advice may or may not include treatment. If I'm given an antibiotic scrip on a contingency basis (IF symptoms X, Y, or Z occur, THEN fill this and take the full course), I only take it if warranted.

Besides the risk of antibiotic resistance, antibiotics have a lot of side effects, which can be very annoying or serious.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby GHung » Thu 10 Jan 2019, 13:36:26

Outcast_Searcher wrote: .......

For example, if people are really scared about catching a big flu, many first worlders could literally stay home 99% or more of the time given the internet, package delivery, etc. Unlike in 1918.


That's my main stragedy. Just stay home and be careful when going out. I use the little wipes at the stores and avoid crowds during the season. Don't like crowds at all (maybe a relic of submarine service), and they don't let me out much anyway 8O .

My wife gets her flu shot every year through her work ( kind of a requirement) and has had rather severe flu twice in 4 years. I haven't had it in decades and I've never had a flu shot. Go figure. I'm sort of a compulsive hand washer and just use simple precautions, but I'm not sure how I haven't contracted it from my wife when she had it (touches wood)..... Actually, I MAY have had a very mild case when she was sick a couple of years ago, but I only had a slight fever and was fine after about 24 hours.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby GHung » Thu 10 Jan 2019, 13:44:51

Outcast_Searcher wrote:[ ........ from observation, an appalling number of men, even relatively educated men, often do no hand washing after using public rest rooms. I observed this for years while working at IBM in a building full of mainly college educated computer programmers. Maybe it doesn't matter much for peeing, but jeez.

I don't know if people aren't taught this while growing up, just assume it doesn't matter or what.


A Sailor and a Marine go into the bathroom to take a leak. When they finish the Marine goes to wash his hands as the Sailor starts to walk out. The Marine speaks up; "You know, our Drill Seargent taught us to wash our hands after using the bathroom." The Sailor looks over his shoulder as he leaves. Says; "Funny that. My momma taught me to not piss on my hands"......
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Revi » Mon 14 Jan 2019, 12:15:51

We could have trouble when the food stamps run out because of the shutdown. Imagine food riots in the US...
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