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The U.S., energy producing superpower

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 20 Mar 2018, 14:59:46

Interesting article, that ignores several points, and appears to obfuscate on others.

The EIA claimed to be overly optimistic isn't also mentioned as the one that was overly PESSIMISTIC previously, so based on past conservative principles, it would seem that understanding their past behavior is important, if only to explain why you conveniently avoid the point. Also, while sweet spot development is certainly of a priority to all operators in the Bakken and Eagle Ford, that isn't where the current growth is coming from, and development in the Midland and Delaware basins within the Wolf camp looks to be as substantial and prolific as either the Bakken or Eagle Ford. Or both.

Lest we forget, another CEO just this past November blasted the EIA in the press over their high estimates. Harold Hamm being that person. And those estimates of the EIA? Turned out to be low. Again, they keep getting it wrong on the LOW side.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Tue 20 Mar 2018, 17:00:34

And, again, as prodigious as the oil output is, the gas production will simply blow people away.

Associated gas barely registers for most operators seeking oil.
Texas and Oklahoma production is rich in both NGLs and methane.

2018 will see Appalachian Basin numbers to write home about.
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 20 Mar 2018, 17:29:59

Define “energy producing superpower”:

1) A country that produces just enough energy to satisfy its needs
2) A country that produces enough energy to satisfy its needs and exports the surplus
3) A country that produces more then most countries but still needs to import energy to meet its needs.
4) A country that produces more than most countries but still needs to import energy to meet its needs. A country that also spent $trillions of taxes and thousands of the lives of its military unsuccessfully trying to stabilize oil exporting regions.
5) A country that produces more than most countries but still needs to import energy to meet its needs. A country that also spent $trillions of taxes and thousands of the lives of its military unsuccessfully trying to stabilize oil exporting regions. A country with politicians and “experts” trying to convince the public it will soon shift to Category 1 and perhaps even if Category 2.
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby dissident » Wed 21 Mar 2018, 07:19:56

A brainless propaganda slogan to make all the sheeple feel warm and fuzzy about how things are going.
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby kublikhan » Thu 05 Apr 2018, 19:16:49

In December, U.S. net petroleum and petroleum product imports fell to the lowest level on record. On the current trajectory, they could fall to zero in 2020.

The overall balance between U.S. imports and exports of both crude oil and finished products fell to 2.6 million BPD in December. That is the lowest level since the EIA began tracking this category in 1973:
U.S. Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products

Last fall the International Energy Agency declared in its World Energy Outlook 2017 that the U.S. could be a net exporter of oil within a decade. On the current trajectory, net imports could indeed turn into net exports in 2020.
U.S. Net Petroleum Imports Plunging Toward Zero
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby kublikhan » Sun 06 Jan 2019, 18:09:05

US net imports of crude oil and petroleum products fell to 1.4 million bpd. 10 years ago this time of year it was 11.5 million bpd of imports.

US net imports of crude oil and petroleum products
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 06 Jan 2019, 18:23:03

What a crock of manure. The Unites States consumes 20 million barrels of oil per day. The United States produces 10 million barrels of oil per day.

20 minus 10 does not equal 1.4. Sorry for your loss kub
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby kublikhan » Sun 06 Jan 2019, 21:08:30

pstarr wrote:What a crock of manure. The Unites States consumes 20 million barrels of oil per day. The United States produces 10 million barrels of oil per day.

20 minus 10 does not equal 1.4. Sorry for your loss kub
Your data is incorrect on a few points pstarr:
1. US oil production is not 10 million bpd. It is 11.7 million bpd.
2. The US is a net exporter of refined petroleum products(gasoline, diesel, etc). This gets subtracted from that 20 million bpd.
3. There are other factors that affect the data such as NGLs, refinery processing gain, etc.

If you want to see all the nitty gritty details you can find this in the weekly data:
Net Imports of Crude and Petroleum Products: 1,392,000 bpd
U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, Week Ending 12/28/2018
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 06 Jan 2019, 22:03:39

Sure kub, minus all the finished product we import from Trinidad Venezuala Mexico Canada and who knows where else?
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby ralfy » Sun 06 Jan 2019, 23:46:29

20 Mbd for less than 5 pct of the world's population.
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 07 Jan 2019, 00:15:58

ralfy wrote:20 Mbd for less than 5 pct of the world's population.


Incorrect. You need to examine the net import picture, that is additive to US domestic production, not total imports.
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby kublikhan » Mon 07 Jan 2019, 01:15:34

pstarr wrote:Sure kub, minus all the finished product we import from Trinidad Venezuala Mexico Canada and who knows where else?
Imports of refined products are included in the net figure.
The oil barrel is half-full.
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 07 Jan 2019, 17:00:00

k - Mucho thanks for all the facts. The continuing irritation is the misuse of the term "consumption". It so easily confuses folks who don't understand that much of US oil "consumption" is the oil "consumed" by our refineries with the resultant products exported to the actual foreign FINAL CONSUMERS of that rather large volume of US oil "consumption". And even though that FACT has been repeatedly explained by you and the Rockman et al some here still INTENTIONALLY use that poor terminology in their arguments.

As the famous Texas comedian Ron White has said: "You can't fix stupid."
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby ralfy » Mon 07 Jan 2019, 20:29:55

ROCKMAN wrote:k - Mucho thanks for all the facts. The continuing irritation is the misuse of the term "consumption". It so easily confuses folks who don't understand that much of US oil "consumption" is the oil "consumed" by our refineries with the resultant products exported to the actual foreign FINAL CONSUMERS of that rather large volume of US oil "consumption". And even though that FACT has been repeatedly explained by you and the Rockman et al some here still INTENTIONALLY use that poor terminology in their arguments.

As the famous Texas comedian Ron White has said: "You can't fix stupid."


And foreign consumers that make up a growing, global middle class, for which I recall one article point out that we will need around four more Saudi Arabias to stay afloat. Clearly, one "energy[-]producing superpower" won't be enough.
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby GHung » Fri 25 Jan 2019, 09:32:14

Next year, the US will export more energy than it imports.

The United States, long beholden to foreign oil, is poised to become a net energy exporter starting next year.
Thanks to the shale oil and natural gas boom, the United States will export more energy than it imports in 2020 for the first time since 1953, according to a forecast published Thursday by the Energy Department's statistics division. That's two years earlier than what was previously expected.
And it won't be a one-off achievement. The United States is likely to be a net energy exporter through at least 2050, the Energy Information Administration said. .......

........ According to the scenario the EIA thinks is mostly likely to happen, the United States should become a net exporter of petroleum liquids — oil and products like gasoline — after 2020. It's a milestone that was briefly achieved late last year. For one week in November, US exports of crude oil and petroleum products exceeded imports, the EIA said. It was the first time that happened on a weekly basis since the EIA began tracking in 1991.
"US crude exports are wildly disrupting the global oil trade. And US shale continues to grow at an unbridled pace," Tran said......

....... Daily oil output to spike above 14 million barrels

Fueled by shale hotbeds like the Permian Basin of Texas, the United States surpassed Russia and Saudi Arabia in terms of monthly oil production last year. US output spiked from about 5 million barrels per day in 2008 to a record 10.9 million barrels last year, the EIA said.
The International Energy Agency said the 2 million barrel-per-day jump in US production last year was the biggest jump ever recorded by any country.
The growth is likely to continue, albeit at a more moderate pace. According to the EIA's most likely scenario, US oil production is expected to keep setting annual records through 2027, and remain greater than 14 million barrels per day through 2040. .....

....... Climate impact

Still, America's energy boom has profound implications for the economy, national security and, of course, the environment.
Last week, a report by Oil Change International warned that new US oil and gas development could unleash the same amount of carbon pollution as nearly 1,000 coal-fired power plants.
The group called it a "climate catastrophe" at precisely the worst time. .......

more: https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/24/business ... index.html
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby Revi » Fri 25 Jan 2019, 10:00:06

Right. Check out a graph of shale oil production. It has gone up and down a bit since 2015, but we are definitely on top of a very tiny peak now. Where do you think it will go? Will it continue on to the stratosphere? Will it make a gigantic mesa and keep us in oil for the foreseeable future? I don't think so...

Image
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 25 Jan 2019, 12:10:22

Revi wrote:Right. Check out a graph of shale oil production. It has gone up and down a bit since 2015, but we are definitely on top of a very tiny peak now. Where do you think it will go? Will it continue on to the stratosphere? Will it make a gigantic mesa and keep us in oil for the foreseeable future? I don't think so...

Image


The EIA thinks that "little peak" in US oil production from shale is the start of a giant "mesa" of high levels of US oil production extending out into the 2040s.

Personally, I hesitate to predict what it will do into the future. I never anticipated the huge amounts of oil we are producing from TOS right now, and I don't see why oilcos couldn't continue to frack and produce oil in the same way for decades, assuming there is enough TOS to keep it all going. AND the potential amount of oil in US shales is enormous....some estimates of TOS reserves just in the Permian Basin run into the 10s of billions of barrels.

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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Sat 26 Jan 2019, 19:36:26

The chart displayed above is laughably outdated as it ends in 2015.

If you folks want to be taken seriously in your understanding of this hydrocarbon arena (something I doubt based on my long running readings of commentators here), check out the most recent data.
In this case, the EIA production numbers from January, 2019, show just under 12 million bbld (11,900).

The Permian assessments from the USGS in 2016/17/18 targeting some (NOT all) of the formations in BOTH the Midland and Delaware sub basins exceeds 70 billion barrels oil.

Anyone wanting to glimpse future US hydrocarbon production needs to monitor the Oklahoma SCOOP/STACK/MERGE region as output may approach 1 million bbld in coming years.

Likewise, the Niobrara could increase another couple hundred thousand barrels per day shortly.

The Powder River Basin is in the VERY early stages of exploration and delineation and its stacked geology looks very promising.

Completely under the radar is the trend of smaller operators to target shallower horizons using big boy drilling/fracturing techniques.
This is occurring in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Texas, and will spread if the geology and economics allow.

Natgas?

The recent surge in interest in the heretofore under developed Deep Utica portends output from that massive resource to ultimately challenge the Mighty Marcellus itself.

As far as the US goes, you Peak Oil guys might consider taking up another hobby. Just sayin'.
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 27 Jan 2019, 14:03:01

pstarr wrote:What a crock of manure. The Unites States consumes 20 million barrels of oil per day. The United States produces 10 million barrels of oil per day.

20 minus 10 does not equal 1.4. Sorry for your loss kub


Your information is in error. I recommend real websites, than whatever faux news passes for "real" information where you live.

Net imports of 1.399 million barrels per day, most recent information from people who we pay to do this for a living.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... tntus2&f=m
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: The U.S., energy producing superpower

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 27 Jan 2019, 14:06:35

ralfy wrote:20 Mbd for less than 5 pct of the world's population.


Yes. But that 5% is quite significant, as we produce 13% of the world's oil and 20% of the world's natural gas. So we fight pretty far above our weight, population wise. Just another argument for exceptionalism I suppose.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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