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The time .... has arrived.

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 05 Dec 2018, 18:28:03

Outcast_Searcher wrote:....the random stuff you post and claim....


???????

You're the one who messed up.

You tried to argue that GDP is continuing to grow right now in Japan and Germany by linking to out-of-date data in an old news article. Well.....it isn't. Thats just reality.

Get a clue, man--- you made a mistake. Its no big deal. Everyone makes mistakes. You can't look at old data to determine what is going on now and what is likely to occur in the future. You have to look at the most recent data to understand what is happening right now. AND the most recent data shows that rather then growing, as you claim, GDP fell in both Japan and Germany during the third quarter of 2018.

We'll have to see what happens in the fourth quarter, but IMHO the drops in GDP in the third quarter in both Japan AND Germany are worth keeping an eye on.

Cheers!
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby EdwinSm » Thu 06 Dec 2018, 05:48:46

By itself Tuesday's fall in stock markets does not signify much, but behind the scenes there seems to be growing fear.

BBC wrote:Analysts said the trigger for Tuesday's falls appeared to be concerns about the "yield curve", which measures the difference between the interest rates paid on short-term and long-term US bonds.

The gap has narrowed in recent months, as investors demand higher rates of return on short-term debt in anticipation of inflation and rate rises.

At the same time, they are accepting relatively lower rates on long-term debt, in anticipation of limited inflation and slower economic growth over the next decade.

The difference between the rates on three-year and five-year debt disappeared on Monday.

The move fuelled concerns on Tuesday that the same might happen to the gap between two-year and 10-year bonds - a more significant indicator.

Historically, when short-term rates rise above longer rates, it signals a recession may be on the horizon.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46445913

It would be good to stock up on pop-corn (for storage, as it will keep for some time), but as the language in the quote is tentative maybe it is not yet the time to stock up on butter to melt over the pop-corn.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 06 Dec 2018, 16:55:58

Plantagenet wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:....the random stuff you post and claim....


???????

You're the one who messed up.

Cheers!

Let's pretend the history of this site rests on one post. :roll:

Let's also claim you never post stuff where you take quotes out of content, are biased in political content, or make bizarre claims about things like how EV's cause cancer, despite all the evidence to the contrary. Sure.

Yes. I did mess up. Unlike you (well over 90% of the time), when I mess up, I admit it. However, instead of just saying you were wrong this time in my initial post, I asked you to source your data -- since I saw that my quick search resulted in mostly 2Q data.

Sheesh.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 06 Dec 2018, 19:29:45

Image
"this is peak now. Wanna bet? The Real Pain starts . . . now." (11/21/18)" --pstarr
"$0/barrel soon as per etp." (12/30/18)" --pstarr
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 07 Dec 2018, 16:55:53

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Yes. I did mess up.


Thank you.

Its no big deal. Everybody messes up sometimes.

Now lets all stop caterwauling about other posters, and lets get back to the topics of the interesting discussions at this site.

It will much nicer here if people talk about the topics instead of bashing other posters.

It will also be more informative, more interesting, and more efficient.

It will be better in every way.

Here.....I'll go first. Here's an interesting bit of news relevant to this topic ....

------------------------------------

Stocks plunge again---down 558 points...wipe out all 2018 gains.

stock-market-dow-fall-558

Experience shows that plunges in the stock market often precede slowdowns and recessions in the economy.

I'm looking for a US and global recession in late 2019.....just in time for the 2020 election season.

Cheers!
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 07 Dec 2018, 20:19:11

As to demonstrate just how dead this forum is ... if I had started this thread 5 years ago, it would already have been 10 pages and a dozen people would have said, "OMG copious is getting bearish! Head for the hills!" :lol: Now it's barely 2 pages and the biggest thing going on in it are 2 people arguing with each other over something not even having much to do with the original topic.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 18 Dec 2018, 22:32:16

Long article but lots of interesting stuff.

Here's Why Stocks Could Be Headed A Lot Lower From Here
[...]

The S&P 500’s P/E ratio is currently at about 19.94, which is well below its recent high of roughly 24, but is still much higher than its historical median 14.73. Perhaps even more telling, the Schiller P/E ratio is currently at 28.20, just starting to come off its second highest level ever of about 33.5, and still far higher than the median 15.69.

Image

So, let’s break this down. For the S&P 500, just to get back to its historic median, the Schiller P/E would need to decline by about 46%. For the S&P 500’s overall P/E ratio to get back to its median range it would have to decline by an additional 26%.

We are essentially talking about the S&P 500 having to decline by another 26 – 46% from current levels so that these valuation metrics could return to their historical averages. Another factor to consider is that in a bear market valuations don’t typically decline to their historic average, they overshoot to the downside, and sometimes by a lot.

[...]

There's a lot of debate about whether that P/E ratio is all that important anymore, but given all the other things discussed in the article, not to mention the conniptions the market has been undergoing all year, it's probably a decent barometer.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby copious.abundance » Wed 02 Jan 2019, 18:44:39

- The 1-year/7-year yield curve is inverted.
- So is the 6-month/5-year

https://www.cnbc.com/us-treasurys/
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby copious.abundance » Wed 02 Jan 2019, 18:51:00

^
And an article on that:

January Yield Curve Update: Inching Closer
Image

Image

Too long? Didn't read? Here's some handy bullets:

-- The trend in yield curve spreads continues to be negative.
-- The changes in the spread are being driven by the long end, the rates least in the Fed's control.
-- Models based around the yield curve are starting to predict recessions coming sooner rather than later. The earliest seems to be the end of 2019.
-- The price of consumer and corporate risk is rising.
Last edited by copious.abundance on Wed 02 Jan 2019, 18:53:28, edited 1 time in total.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby pstarr » Wed 02 Jan 2019, 18:53:19

It's okay Copius. This is the year that Siri flys off to the moons of Uranus, and bring back untold methane riches. There will no longer be a need for money or banks.
SA has peaked. OPEC has peaked. So goes the world.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Pops » Wed 02 Jan 2019, 19:38:20

Not rising very fast tho, which seems to be the sign.
Who can even guess what might be coming next?
What crazy crap trump is gonna tweet during executive time,
whanna see those numbers really go haywire?
Just wait until China stops buying treasuries.

In other depressing (-depression) news, the TPP just went into effect.
Thought trump stopped that?
Nope, he just stopped the US from benefiting. The other countries all signed on Sunday and now they get favored treatment such as lowered tariffs on beef into Japan—one of the largest markets for US exports.

great again

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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Cog » Wed 02 Jan 2019, 21:20:54

Don't give up Pops. Maybe Hillary will run in 2020 so you can vote for her again.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 22 Jan 2019, 17:34:49

Some pretty clear signs the housing market is starting to turn.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.99 million in December
Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, decreased 6.4 percent from November to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.99 million in December. Sales are now down 10.3 percent from a year ago (5.56 million in December 2017).
...
Total housing inventory at the end of December decreased to 1.55 million, down from 1.74 million existing homes available for sale in November, but represents an increase from 1.46 million a year ago. Unsold inventory is at a 3.7-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 3.9 last month and up from 3.2 months a year ago.

Be sure to check out the chart at the link.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby marmico » Thu 24 Jan 2019, 10:12:51

The Conference Board LEI did not turn down in December 2018.

https://www.conference-board.org/pdf_fr ... 202019.pdf

The time....has not arrived.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby GHung » Thu 24 Jan 2019, 11:56:29

marmico wrote:The Conference Board LEI did not turn down in December 2018. .......


From your link: The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Declined

NEW YORK, January 24, 2019
...
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index ® (LEI) for the U.S. declined 0.1 percent in December to 11.7 ........


Color me confused. You are either lying and think we wouldn't check, or you need new glasses. Or maybe it's my glasses........
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 24 Jan 2019, 13:59:55

and in that same report they state:

“While the effects of the government shutdown are not yet reflected here, the LEI suggests
that the economy could decelerate towards 2 percent growth by the end of 2019.”


OH , woe is me.....2% growth..what a disaster!! :roll:
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 24 Jan 2019, 15:29:50

GHung wrote:
marmico wrote:The Conference Board LEI did not turn down in December 2018. .......


From your link: The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Declined

NEW YORK, January 24, 2019
...
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index ® (LEI) for the U.S. declined 0.1 percent in December to 11.7 ........


Color me confused. You are either lying and think we wouldn't check, or you need new glasses. Or maybe it's my glasses........

Let's pretend that 0.1% is a gigantic number, and that in casual conversation, it's impossible for someone talking in round numbers, that 0.1% change means roughly flat, or unchanged. :roll:

If you want to pick at nits, fine. But if someone who disagreed with you called you a liar for picking at such nits on ANY chart, I'm 99% sure you wouldn't like it one bit. ***

...

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dsh ... be-peaking

When I look at the LEI for 2018, I'd say that for Jan. to August, the trend was clearly up (by about 5 points), and from Sept. through Dec. the trend was basically flat (hovering near 112). Does that make me a liar too, or must everyone be as pedantic as say, Star Trek's "Data", when casually discussing figures?

....

*** Not to mention that people make mistakes. Without calling someone a liar, you could just say, something like "Hey, it looks to me like it was slightly down, and that's not unchanged. Am I missing something?"

I think we can disagree about things around here without frequent name calling. At least for those of us who are mature enough to discuss real data with real citations, and aren't frequently or flagrantly distorting data (again, everyone including me makes mistakes through haste or distraction, etc), instead of just making things up.

Just one man's opinion.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby GHung » Thu 24 Jan 2019, 17:49:45

Outcast_Searcher wrote: ......
Let's pretend that 0.1% is a gigantic number, and that in casual conversation, it's impossible for someone talking in round numbers, that 0.1% change means roughly flat, or unchanged. :roll:

If you want to pick at nits, fine. But if someone who disagreed with you called you a liar for picking at such nits on ANY chart, I'm 99% sure you wouldn't like it one bit. *** ........


Nope. I don't cut Marmico one inch of slack because he never does the same for others. Quid-fucking-Pro-Quo.

He made a statement of "fact" that was clearly false. He didn't say "about" or "pretty much", or use any other qualifiers. He said; "The Conference Board LEI did not turn down in December 2018". It did. I called him on it. If you have a problem with that, it's YOUR problem.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 25 Jan 2019, 02:06:37

GHung wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote: ......
Let's pretend that 0.1% is a gigantic number, and that in casual conversation, it's impossible for someone talking in round numbers, that 0.1% change means roughly flat, or unchanged. :roll:

If you want to pick at nits, fine. But if someone who disagreed with you called you a liar for picking at such nits on ANY chart, I'm 99% sure you wouldn't like it one bit. *** ........


Nope. I don't cut Marmico one inch of slack because he never does the same for others. Quid-fucking-Pro-Quo.

He made a statement of "fact" that was clearly false. He didn't say "about" or "pretty much", or use any other qualifiers. He said; "The Conference Board LEI did not turn down in December 2018". It did. I called him on it. If you have a problem with that, it's YOUR problem.

Just remember that when, for example, someone calls you a doomer for making doomerish posts, and then you get bent out of shape about it. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 01 Feb 2019, 19:02:16

The Unemployment Rate May Soon Signal A Recession: Update - February 1, 2018
-- For what is considered to be a lagging indicator of the economy, the unemployment rate provides surprisingly good signals for the beginning and end of recessions.

-- This model, backtested to 1948, reliably provided recession signals.

-- The model, updated with the January 2019 rate of 4.0%, does not signal a recession.

-- However, if the unemployment rate should rise to 4.1% in the coming months the model would then signal recession.

Image

^
On the chart, notice that when the blue line goes above the red line, either a recession has just started, or will very soon. It is >this< close to doing so.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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