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Wind & Solar Are Wrong Path Pt. 2

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: Wind & Solar Are Wrong Path Pt. 2

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 27 Nov 2018, 19:05:27

I doubt we should spend much time on the present cost figures as over the lifetime of any new facility both the costs and tax incentive/ disincentives will certainly change.
Let world oil production drop post peak to less then say 85 million barrels a day and everything that has been written,said, legislated and , done will be totally redone. I don't know what year that will happen but I'm almost certain it will happen and pretty sure it will be before newly installed wind and solar today wear out.
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Re: Cautionary Tale on Texas Wind Power

Unread postby jawagord » Fri 21 Dec 2018, 14:27:48

Don't mess with Texas (gas)!

Georgetown’s bet against fossil fuel prices cost the city-owned utility nearly $7 million this year, and prompted officials to look for a way out of their long-term contracts for solar and wind energy.

“It’s costing them big time,” vice president of research at the Texas Public Policy Foundation (TPPF), Bill Peacock, told The Daily Caller News Foundation in an interview. “This doesn’t appear to be the first time they’ve lost money, just the first time it was big enough to have to go public with it.”

“They went all-in on one thing. Anybody looking at this from a financial standpoint could have foreseen these problems,” Peacock said. “This doesn’t seem to be getting any better.”

Georgetown Utility Systems (GUS) contracted to buy wind and solar at fixed prices until 2035 and 2043, respectively. Georgetown is obligated to buy about twice as much power as it actually needs from green power plants. The city is first in Texas and second-largest in the U.S. to go 100 percent renewable.

The idea was that Georgetown would have enough green power to grow into at fixed prices, avoiding market volatility and what they saw as the rising costs of fossil fuels. In the meantime, Georgetown would sell any excess power back to Texas’ electricity market.

But energy prices plummeted in recent years, particularly natural gas prices, meaning the city lost money selling power back to the market. Georgetown Budget Manager Paul Diaz told city councilors in late November the utility had lost $6.84 million. City officials are looking for ways to make up the shortfall.

https://dailycaller.com/2018/12/18/texa ... onvenient/
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Re: Wind & Solar Are Wrong Path Pt. 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 22 Dec 2018, 13:07:58

“But energy prices plummeted in recent years, particularly natural gas prices, meaning the city lost money selling power back to the market.”. A tad more complicated then that implication. First, Texas electricity prices are a bit HIGHER IN 2018 then they were in 2017:

https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly ... epmt_5_6_a

Likewise, Texas city gate NG prices have increased significantly from 2016 thru 2018: $3.20/mcf in May 2016 to almost $5/mcf in Sept 2018.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/s althist/n3050tx3m.htm

But to understand the true dynamics of the situation one would have to know the anticipated primary supplier of electricity to Georgetown to get a true picture of what the city would be paying today. In reality, thanks to our absolute controller of the electricity markets in Texas, ERCOT, with our alt energy situation (mostly wind power) there are short periods when electricity generators actually have TO PAY residential users for taking their output.

But one has to go back and look at the original pricing expectations of the deal Georgetown made with its alt energy supplier: in the early days the Georgetown residents would be paying above market prices. This was necessary for the wind and solar generators to obtain financing for that expansion. For many years the alts have often not been able to compete with the prices of our fossil fuel sourced electricity. The real economic value for Georgetown would be realized during peak supply shortages and projected very high electricity prices in the future.

This is a problem many (if not most) alt energy projects to reduce current fossil fuel consumption have faced: they have minimum, if not negative, CURRENT economic advantage. Which is exactly why you see so few alt energy projects built outside of Texas and just a other states: very few want to build in advance of the need. Of course, if NG prices increase to 3X to 4X current levels that decision will be criticized by some just as Georgetown’s decision is being criticized by some today.

Everyone is free to argue about future electricity cost… I’ll pass. But I have no doubt the citizens of Georgetown will eventually be very happy with the premium they are paying today compared to the low prices and guaranteed supplies they’ll experience years into the future.

But, what do I know: I’ve only been a petroleum geologist for more then 4 decades. LOL.
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Re: Wind & Solar Are Wrong Path Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 28 Dec 2018, 19:48:38

One is tempted to think something funny is going on.

An Italian construction company just sold its lease to develop a wind farm in waters off the New Jersey coast for $215 million, about 21,000 percent more than it paid only three years ago.

Toto Holding SpA’s U.S. Wind unit, which paid about $1 million for the lease off Atlantic City in 2015, resold it to Electricite de France SA, which plans to develop the site though a joint venture with Royal Dutch Shell Plc.


https://gcaptain.com/offshore-wind-leas ... ree-years/
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Re: Wind & Solar Are Wrong Path Pt. 2

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sat 29 Dec 2018, 00:01:26

Doesn't Toto make toilets?
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Resistance is Futile, YOU will be Assimilated.

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Re: Wind & Solar Are Wrong Path Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 29 Dec 2018, 11:41:58

Don’t know, I thought it was a dog!
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Re: Wind & Solar Are Wrong Path Pt. 2

Unread postby jawagord » Sat 29 Dec 2018, 17:34:15

Hmmm, did they forget the third blade? Maybe municipalities should think about protecting the taxpayer and stay out of the wind power generation business!

Four years after spending $5 million to install wind turbines at four highway exits, the New York State Thruway Authority is now suing the company, contractor and consultants who installed them because the machines haven't worked since last year.

The authority on Thursday filed a lawsuit against Vergnet Group S.A., Prudent Engineering LLP, Ravi Engineering & Land Surveying PC, Kandey Company Inc. and CHA Consulting Inc., citing the failure of four turbines along the Thruway in Chautauqua and Erie counties. The machines are located on authority property at exits 61, 59, 58 and 57A.

The turbines were installed in 2013-2014 as part of a renewable energy program designed to generate enough power to save the authority as much as $420,000 a year on energy bills. The authority spent $500,000 on design and up to $4.8 million on installation. But the machines went offline between October 2017 and January 2018 because of mechanical issues.



https://buffalonews.com/2018/12/27/thru ... nt-worked/
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