Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Peak Japan? Population shrinks by a million census confirms

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak Japan? Population shrinks by a million census confi

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 28 Feb 2016, 12:20:06

claman wrote:Are elderly people selfish sticking to their resources while younger families struggle to manege ?


Those elders took care of their own parents and grandparents and deserve the same level of respect from their children and grandchildren. In cases where they have none the society as a whole should be rewarding them for not contributing to overpopulation by giving them decent care.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
User avatar
Tanada
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 15179
Joined: Thu 28 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: South West shore Lake Erie, OH, USA

Re: Peak Japan? Population shrinks by a million census confi

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 28 Feb 2016, 12:35:35

Clanman made a perfect valid comparison. Folks should themselves have a right to die just as inviolate as the right to life, as long as the decision is their own. This is the direction the US is moving finally, perhaps on the example that Japan already set (*).

* disclaimer Including but not limited to harikari, seppuku, self-immolation, opioid administration. Acts of war, suicide by the United States, etc, other passive-aggressive violations of international treat are exempt from this statement. This statement does not justify past brutalities of/by the Imperial Japanese Army, the Edu Magnate, vampire doll mangas, etc.
SA has peaked. OPEC has peaked. So goes the world.
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 27865
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: Peak Japan? Population shrinks by a million census confi

Unread postby claman » Sun 28 Feb 2016, 12:41:43

Davy and apne are often talking about the great "die off" in generel. I'm just talking about it on a personal level.
Nature should be allowed to kill us all if we don’t fit into our local eco-system.
claman
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 87
Joined: Sat 29 Jan 2011, 13:13:39

Re: Peak Japan? Population shrinks by a million census confi

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 28 Feb 2016, 12:57:37

claman wrote:Davy and apne are often talking about the great "die off" in generel. I'm just talking about it on a personal level.

This brings up an interesting point. On the personal level, we are saying a person should have a right to chose when to die. Well, can we not extrapolate that to masses of people. The culminating sum of the crisis we are entering means many many people will probably die prematurely or at a time not of their choosing. Of course precisely controlling the timing of one's death is unrealistic. But what is so tragic is we have set up conditions that will bring out the early death of many people thus taking away their right to life. I hope I am not around to witness it. That is my wish to die before.
"We are mortal beings doomed to die
User avatar
onlooker
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 10060
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 12:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: Peak Japan? Population shrinks by a million census confi

Unread postby claman » Sun 28 Feb 2016, 13:17:38

Onlooker, My basic point of view is that humans are an animal species, and that we - no matter how bright we are - are under the rules of nature.
We are over populating and must face the same destiny as any other over-populating species ever on this earth
Nature should be allowed to kill us all if we don’t fit into our local eco-system.
claman
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 87
Joined: Sat 29 Jan 2011, 13:13:39

Re: Peak Japan? Population shrinks by a million census confi

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 28 Feb 2016, 13:53:48

onlooker wrote:
claman wrote:Davy and apne are often talking about the great "die off" in generel. I'm just talking about it on a personal level.

This brings up an interesting point. On the personal level, we are saying a person should have a right to chose when to die. Well, can we not extrapolate that to masses of people.
No. Masses of people should not be able to choose when masses of people are to die, not even if includes oneself or it is made in a democratic fashion. That would be genocide.

onlooker wrote:The culminating sum of the crisis we are entering means many many people will probably die prematurely or at a time not of their choosing. Of course precisely controlling the timing of one's death is unrealistic.
What is that? You could always pull the trigger or swallow a pill.

onlooker wrote:But what is so tragic is we have set up conditions that will bring out the early death of many people thus taking away their right to life. I hope I am not around to witness it. That is my wish to die before.

I have no problem witnessing it from a distance. We already are and it can be quite entertaining. If you feel safe.

"Satellite's gone
Up to the skies
Thing like that drive me
Out of my mind

I watched it for a little while
I like to watch things on TV"
SA has peaked. OPEC has peaked. So goes the world.
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 27865
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: Peak Japan? Population shrinks by a million census confi

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 28 Feb 2016, 14:06:31

Okay the first point P, your take is Genocide, well is that not what is happening gradually with the stresses and assaults on our life support systems. I believe the confusion is when to die or NOT to die. With regards to your second point, true one can at any time choose to pull the trigger or such but that would happen when one feels that is the appropriate action to take and who can say when one will feel that way. Finally, to your third point. I do not find anything about mass die-off entertaining. In fact I do not even like to watch zombie hordes in movies or TV, yep call me a dull person. haha.
"We are mortal beings doomed to die
User avatar
onlooker
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 10060
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 12:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: Peak Japan? Population shrinks by a million census confi

Unread postby JimBof » Mon 29 Feb 2016, 19:09:44

In a place as heavily populated as Japan a slow reduction of population is probably not a bad thing. I recently saw a film about the main station in Tokyo. Do not want to go there in rush hour.
JimBof
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 66
Joined: Fri 20 Jun 2014, 06:34:56

Re: Peak Japan? Population shrinks by a million census confi

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Sun 06 Mar 2016, 18:26:54

Japan is already overpopulated, so their population shrinking is actually a good thing. As long as there are enough young people to support the aging population, a shrinking population is a good thing. Increasing population yields absolutely no benefits other than the illusion of perpetual economic growth.

Of course, anyone arguing that there must be perpetual population growth in order to take care of the aging population doesn't understand that such a statement is akin to the largest pyramid scheme in human history. Ever-more young people are somehow required to keep increasing the population in order to take care of an aging population. So you must constantly increase the bottom rug on the age-population pyramid to take care of those on top?

Does not and will never work.

Besides, no country actually wants the refugees from Syria in their country because there is no country in the world that is underpopulated. The entire world is in a severe state of ecological overshoot from an excessive amount of human beings. It just happens that the majority of people deny this.

Japan does NOT want immigrants from the Middle East. Encouraging population growth, in a world that doesn't need more people, is beyond foolish at this point.

Every country in the world should follow Japan's role model, and voluntarily reduce their populations by keeping birth-rates lower than death-rates. Especially in countries that are already way too overpopulated like China, Bangladesh and India.

Of course, realistically that is never going to happen. And realistically, the global human population will continue to grow until Mother Nature uses famine, disease and war to reduce it.

By the time we reach 9 billion people by 2050, the world's resources will become even more scarce and depleted than they are now. And the population crash or die-off will be even more severe than if it were to happen at our current population number. Of course, it is a big IF we can ever reach 9 billion people. It is very possible the involuntary population decline will happen before we reach 9 billion due to famine, diseases and other nasty things.

Virtually all of the potential arable land in the world is already being used to grow food. We are likely to reach peak food within the next decade or two--assuming we haven't reached it already. And afterwards, peak global population because without excess food, it is not possible to grow population. Just like the Club of Rome predictions in the book, Limits to Growth, predicted.

Most of the predictions in the Limits to Growth book are probably going to become true over the next couple of decades since business-as-usual is still continuing and will continue until it is no longer possible to.
History repeats itself. Just everytime with different characters and players.
DesuMaiden
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 851
Joined: Mon 06 Oct 2014, 15:00:31

Re: Peak Japan? Population shrinks by a million census confi

Unread postby JimBof » Mon 07 Mar 2016, 19:30:02

Peak food is not the problem, it is the willingness to transport it. If you took the 1000 calories per day that the average westerner eats above the necessary amount there would be plenty of food, and the westerners would be healthier. The cost to transport it and the losses the distributors might make would require generosity. Do you think Trump would help? :shock:
JimBof
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 66
Joined: Fri 20 Jun 2014, 06:34:56

Re: Peak Japan? Population shrinks by a million census confi

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 07 Mar 2016, 22:29:09

JimBof wrote:Peak food is not the problem, it is the willingness to transport it. If you took the 1000 calories per day that the average westerner eats above the necessary amount there would be plenty of food, and the westerners would be healthier. The cost to transport it and the losses the distributors might make would require generosity. Do you think Trump would help? :shock:
Yes, if there were equitable food distribution then the planet might support many more people. However there will soon be an inadequate supply of petroleum to both grow that food and deliver it.

But simple motor transport (by ship, container, train, truck, donkey or otherwise) is not the only energy bottleneck. Refrigeration and packaging to protect the food (from heat, humidity, theft, insects and rodents etc) during transport is a major drain on energy . . . perhaps the largest energy demand. As long as folks are far removed from the food then there is no simple solution to the predicament, except wholesale relocation of populations near the food. Not going to happen
SA has peaked. OPEC has peaked. So goes the world.
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 27865
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: Peak Japan? Population shrinks by a million census confi

Unread postby GHung » Mon 24 Dec 2018, 10:26:15

..... and so it goes:

Japan suffers biggest natural population decline ever in 2018

(CNN)Japan suffered its biggest natural population decline ever this year, government statistics show.
The fast-graying nation also posted a record-low birthrate, as the estimated number of babies born in 2018 dipped to 921,000 -- the lowest since records began in 1899 -- according to a report published Friday by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare.
The number of newborns is estimated to have shrunk by 25,000 from 2017, and the figure remains under the 1 million mark for the third year running.
Deaths in 2018 also hit a postwar record high of 1.369 million, with a natural population decline of 448,000 -- the highest ever. ....

More: https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/23/health/j ... index.html
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
User avatar
GHung
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2674
Joined: Tue 08 Sep 2009, 15:06:11
Location: Moksha, Nearvana

Re: Peak Japan? Population shrinks by a million census confi

Unread postby Revi » Sat 12 Jan 2019, 20:59:07

Japan doesn't have a lot of resources itself, so it may be an okay thing for it to lose some population. It has a lot of forests and sustainable farms thanks to it's policies. It might be okay to lighten the load a bit to make it through what's coming. There are 127 million people on that island now, and if they lost 1/2 million per year it will take 254 years to get down to nobody. It's going to take them down under 100 million at this rate in about 50 years. Fine! We should be doing it too.
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
User avatar
Revi
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 7015
Joined: Mon 25 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: Maine

Re: Peak Japan? Population shrinks by a million census confi

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 13 Jan 2019, 15:08:50

JimBof wrote: If you took the 1000 calories per day that the average westerner eats:

Why spout complete nonsense? Why not look things up? Or make credible citations if you're going to make a wild claim?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... rgy_intake

As of a decade+ ago, the minimum caloric intake for any country was shown at nearly 1600.
In India it was nearly 2400 -- you know, India, where there are lots and lots of hungry people.

In the West it is more like 3000 or more.

In the US, more like 3800, where there is far too much obesity.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 6116
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: Peak Japan? Population shrinks by a million census confi

Unread postby Cog » Sun 13 Jan 2019, 15:25:35

Actually JimBof said 1000 calories above what the westerner needs not that he only eats 1000 calories a day.
User avatar
Cog
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 11610
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Northern Kekistan

Re: Peak Japan? Population shrinks by a million census confi

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 13 Jan 2019, 15:36:08

Cog wrote:Actually JimBof said 1000 calories above what the westerner needs not that he only eats 1000 calories a day.

Yes he did. I misread the statement and didn't copy a large enough text segment to catch that error.

My bad - 100%.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 6116
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: Peak Japan? Population shrinks by a million census confi

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 14 Jan 2019, 07:26:10

Excellent thread, lots to explore with this discussion.

Population reduction is inevitable. You can do it voluntarially or it can be forced. But it will happen. So we had better figure out how to deal with it.

I’ve been a strong advocate of degrowth generally and population reduction specifically for a while now. Clearly it’s a phenomenon humanity has yet to figure out. It doesn’t fit our Capitalist/Consumerist model. They are incompatiable.

This is LTG in action. In this first phase we will need to be flexible and adapt to the new situation. That will be tough going from positive growth to negative growth. We will have “growing pains” to make a horrible pun. In the second phase we will transition from degrowth to steady state.

That the Japanese are making the transition in a peaceful, if not graceful manner, without resorting to immigration is a good thing. If nothing else we should watch and observe how they do it, what works, what doesn’t.

In the USA we lament mechanization and robotics and AI that threatens to take away all employment. Then whey are we lamenting there won’t be enough folks to care for the elderly? It seems each elederly person creates at least 2 to 3 jobs. The bigger problem is what to do with all the extra health care workers once the elderly are all dead?

Of course we need skilled and compassionate elder care workers. Not so sure we are going to find that. Brining in immigrants does not solve a problem, it merely displaces it in time and makes it worse when the inevitable happens.

The real problem is not population, it is the exchange of money. It is phrased that we need a young population to support the elderly. Not true as noted above. We need enough taxpayers to support the cost of the elderly. Who pays? It’s a financial manipulation problem.

Forget money for an instant. If the USA has enough food and enough people to care for the elderly, why it it a problem? We have all the resources we need, we just need to redistribute those resources better. As the population decreases then there will be proportionately more resources to go around, all will be a little richer. But to make this happen you have to change your way of thinking about wealth and distribution.

I’ve no answers. But here it’s hard to see a very modest rate of depopulation as a catastrophe.
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 11544
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Between Canada and Carribean

Re: Peak Japan? Population shrinks by a million census confi

Unread postby Revi » Mon 14 Jan 2019, 07:59:56

Japan right now has about the same population as the entire US had in 1940. We are at well over twice the population we had back then also. If we are going to get back to a population that's sustainable I think Japan is doing it in a very kind and gentle way. We need families and people to run things, but we don't need as many as we have now. The high consuming countries are all experiencing a drop, but that's okay. We can't have a whole planet of suburbanites.
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
User avatar
Revi
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 7015
Joined: Mon 25 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: Maine

Re: Peak Japan? Population shrinks by a million census confi

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 14 Jan 2019, 09:23:37

Japan is on the leading edge of the big question about how we deal with a declining population. The importance cannot be understated. A big component of economic growth is having a population of consumers. When this population is shrinking how do you demonstrate economic growth which is a hallmark of any capitalistic society. In Japan we see the first test case. Questions arise

Being an insular country domestically but in business quite international, how will they adapt. Will they allow more immigrants in a desperate attempt to continue to grow economically.

Will they accept less economic activity, less growth and begin to adapt to a downsized economy.

This is worth watching as this is probably the first industrialized country to deal with this.

As many of us here often question how growth based capitalism adapts to a declining resource base and declining population, here we have an interesting example.
Our resiliency resembles an invasive weed. We are the Kudzu Ape
blog: http://blog.mounttotumas.com/
website: http://www.mounttotumas.com
User avatar
Ibon
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 6736
Joined: Fri 03 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Volcan, Panama

Re: Peak Japan? Population shrinks by a million census confi

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Mon 14 Jan 2019, 13:10:38

Time for some of those "damned statistics". I gleaned the following from Wikipedia on the search "Immigration to Japan":

Total authorized foriegn nationals resident in Japan are 1.75% of the population, and illegal immigrants are almost zero, estimated below 0.1%. The authorized foriegners break down as follows:

-Special permanent resident status
-Permanent Resident status
-Status of Residence based on Status or Position (Descendants of Japanese nationals)
-Individuals living in the country as registered spouses of Japanese nationals
-Individuals granted limited duration employment visas
-Individuals granted limited duration student or academic research visas
-Individuals on limited duration Technical Intern Training Program visas
-Registered refugee and asylum seekers

Japan is a signatory to the UN's "1951 Refugee Convention" and the "1967 Protocol". However, Japan rejects far more asylum applicants than other countries. For example the USA, Canada, and Germany each approve about 40% of asylum applicants, whereas in Japan the average since the refugee treaties is 0.2%. In 2017 for example, Japan approved 20 out of 19,828 applicants.

As a former USCG member, I will say of Japan that it has one of the most effective Coast Guard forces in the world. There are no boatloads of refugees coming ashore in Japan.

Perhaps you were not aware of racial strife in Japan. It exists and is hardly publicized by anyone, this is the briefest of summaries. I experienced it on the island of Hokkaido during the 1970s, while wearing a USCG uniform. In terms of Japanese of Japanese ethnicity, the Wajin majority, which originated as Korean immigrants and spawned the Samurai culture in fuedal Japan, has historically repressed the Ainu, which are the original island inhabitants. The Ainu share a common ancestry with the Kuril Islanders of Russia, and most live on the Northern Japanese island of Hokkaido. The majority of Japanese are Wajin and pretty much detest the Ainu, the Gaijin (foriegn devils), and anybody in a US uniform, which is something that dates back to when MacArthur was Governor of occupied Japan following WW2. They also seem to have some lingering animosity towards us because we dropped two nuclear weapons on the Japanese mainland.

In any case, Ibon used the word "insular", and that about sums it up. It's their island, they pretty much have a distinct culture, and want to keep it that way. Not to mention the overpopulation.

I'm not sure if they will ever change, but compared to the USA, which has hundreds of miles of open borders, Japan has no problem with immigrants. My office at my former employer was near the two Japanese liasons, which I got to know. Unlike all other countries, the Japanese branch of the company employed only Japanese, plus a couple of miserable tokens. They also had products shipped to a "remanufacturing facility" in Japan, where they stripped off packaging in other languages, substituted Japanese translations for multi-lingual labelling, and even applied Japanese labels over product markings. We were also warned that when we (meaning US employees) communicated with the Japanese, that they reserved the word "Domestic" strictly for Japanese products, and anything called "International" was despised.

They were of course, oh so polite about these things. But they'll likely never have immigration problems, unless their numbers fall to where they can no longer defend their own islands.
KaiserJeep 2.0, Neural Subnode 0010 0000 0001 0110 - 1001 0011 0011, Tertiary Adjunct to Unimatrix 0000 0000 0001

Resistance is Futile, YOU will be Assimilated.

Warning: Messages timestamped before April 1, 2016, 06:00 PST were posted by the unmodified human KaiserJeep 1.0
KaiserJeep
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5706
Joined: Tue 06 Aug 2013, 16:16:32
Location: California's Silly Valley

PreviousNext

Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 12 guests