I underestimated the extent to which partisanship has replaced religion in the US. trump (and Obama before) are objects of reverence and virtually immune to rebuke by their own. Frankly I don’t know what it would take for R senators to vote to convict trump on impeachment. Not that they are doing anything crazy, or are cowed by trump, they are merely representing the newly refined base of their party. Frankly, I had no idea just how skeered those old, uneducated white guys are about their place in the world— being one myself I'm doubly surprised. If OWG don't all shoot ourselves in the head (or vein) first, we'll be out in force for whomever the Rs put up in 2020—call it suicide by vote. (that's prediction one I guess)
It could be that senators grow a backbone if Mueller comes up with receipts from vlad and MBS. They have a couple of times, sanctioning russia and now KSA, but I'm not holding my breath. As the heat rises around trump he may decide to declare his work done and decline to run again — unless being POTUS seems like the only way to avoid jail, LOL. Admitting he's a loser is against character, but running from failure is not, so... I guess I'll predict he won't run or maybe loses out to someone even more overtly racist (#2).
Obama made clear to low information white voters, just by showing up, which was the party of non-whites. Prior to '08, going back to at least '92, high school educated whites were about
equally split between Ds & Rs. Obama's smiling brown face forced those "conservative" whites to realize they belong with the Rs. Just as trump has forced liberals more to the left out of sheer disgust. So #3 is this situation won't soon change: Rs will increasingly elect white males and the next pres nominee will more than likely be even more overtly racist than trump—who is probably about your average old bigot but smartly marketed himself to the trailer trash rebel flag cohort. As has been said, at least the racists think he's racist. (That will go down with "it's the economy, stupid")
By the same token, the Ds really have no choice but to run women, non-whites, young people and left-wingers now that Obama ran off the Ds-by-inheritance (the aforementioned trailer trash rebels). So even though I personally like Uncle Joe, even though he's a corporatist, he or any other old white guy just isn't going to attract the aforementioned voters that trump flipped, they are gone for good. I'm somewhat more class warrior than civil rights defender so Bernie/Liz are more to my liking but they are in the same boat.
And, as the old saw goes,
Rs fall in line, Ds fall in love. Barry, Bill, Jimmy—and Bernie too, were mostly unknowns who took the party by storm, while Hilary and Gore were old news and brought none of the... revolutionary (I guess) zeal that Ds like.
But being demographically out of sync with the younger "sectionalist" base I don't really have a prediction for the Ds nominee except they are more likely than not to be younger, browner and more x than y.
http://www.people-press.org/2016/09/13/2-party-affiliation-among-voters-1992-2016/The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
