[vtsnowedin]

Well most of the votes have been counted and it is clear that the Democrats have control of the house for the next two years.
So why not open a pool about what that will mean to Trump's presidency.
Of course some will predict that Trump will weather it all and go on to a solid victory in 2020.
I doubt that, but will hold my prediction until others have had a turn.
No money or bets , just bragging rights, but look into your personal crystal ball and predict what and when will happen to Trump and his administration between now and say ten days after the next election day.
Impeachment, indictments, resignation, war, bipartisan achievements?. etc. are on the table. Which ones do you see as likely?

[GHung]

It's not wise to make bets on lunatics.

[vtsnowedin]

It's not wise to make bets on lunatics.

Yes of course but the lunatics have the power and we will get to pay the bills.
Think about it and come forward with your best guess as to where we will be mid November 2020.
If I knew exactly what would happen I could probably make a small profit based mostly on how little I could invest in the potential winners.
Mostly I'm guessing that Kumbia moments will be few and far between for the next two years.

[Outcast_Searcher]

It's not wise to make bets on lunatics.

I'm no Trump fan, but name calling isn't exactly a credible prediction, or way to make judgements.

And based on some of your claims about economic doom, etc. over time (though you claim not to be a Cassandra), the term "lunatic" is in the eye of the beholder, especially in politics.

For example, the dems go beserk about the Trump deficits -- seems fine until you look at the Obama cumulative deficits, but Obama was a hero and great POTUS according to the dems. (Oh, and the dems are fine with the Trump deficits, re plans like the Kamala Harris (likely POTUS candidate for 2020) plan to give away money to the tune of up to $6,000 a year per family of four making up to a cool $100,000 a year as away to repurpose the Trump tax cut deficits. (Great way to buy dem votes, of course.) Crickets of course on removing that money from the budget if it's on dem approved spending.)

https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-go ... 39985.html

(I actually approve of the idea of raising the effective minimum wage by increasing the earned income tax credit for people who are actually poor. But with dem ideas like this being popular, it's a pretty huge joke when the dems try to frame themselves as the party of financial responsibility.)



And I don't like Trump's methods or style at all. I see him as kind of the opposite of Jimmy Carter, re decision making. Carter vacillated and didn't do much when leadership was called for. Trump is like a bull in a china shop, pretending there are no rules or they don't apply to him. While I see Jimmy Carter as a fine human being (and Trump not so much), I think BOTH leadership styles don't lead to being an effective president.

[Outcast_Searcher]

I think Trump will continue to stumble through his first term. I don't think he has a realistic chance of winning a second term (but I was wrong in 2016, so I readily admit I could be wrong again. You'd THINK the dems could put of a serious candidate that a huge proportion of the country doesn't HATE -- but I don't know if they're that smart. Again.)

I think the dems can and should try to ferret out whether Trump was knowingly involved in election corruption THAT RESULTED IN VOTES BEING CHANGED OR WITHHELD. The endless speculation should be cleared up. If they find clear evidence they should impeach him. If they can't find clear evidence, they should stop making random false claims on that issue (as if that will ever happen. Many Dems are still claiming Gore won the 2000 election.)

I have no prediction on which way that will go, because I don't know -- I don't have the data. How many years should it take to produce the data, if it exists? When the GOP runs long investigations on, say, HRC, there is endless whining from the left. Funny how that works.

[Cog]

People always forget you need 67 Senators to remove a president from office. Unless you have a video of Trump and Putin fixing the election, that simply isn't happening. In the end the House Dems will bluster about it but Pelosi will put a damper on it. Mueller has nothing on Trump. It would have leaked long ago to CNN and WaPo.

I expect there to be actual compromises on legislation. A bit of this and a bit of that on budget stuff. No progress on deficit reduction since neither party wants to inflict the pain that would cause. Won't be any gun legislation. Some Obama-care fixes that both sides agree to but no repeal is in the cards. There also won't be single payer because no Senate Republicans will pass it. Trump will get funding for his wall by giving the Dems something. DACA probably.

Really just don't see that much real drama unfolding at all for two years. Some bluster but nothing of substance. A lot of conservative judges are going to the federal courts though. The Dems can't stop that.

[vtsnowedin]

I agree that Mueller probably doesn't have much on the Russia probe. From what we know the Trump campaign was looking for Hillarie's Emails but that would be nothing more then seeking factual information. There is no evidence they ever came into posseion of those Emails nor did they release corrupt fake damaging entries to sway public opinion. Much ado about nothing.
What is probably more of a problem for Trump is the Dems ability to audit all of his past tax returns. The tax code for businesses are complicated enough that you can get two or more opinions about every situation even within the offices of the IRS so Trump inc.s returns will be a happy hunting ground for his critics. Even if they can't indict a sitting president they can file fraud charges on his children.
He can't find a competent White house staff to serve him or keep them once he hires them. He being the problem not the quality of those available.
Pence waiting in the wings is probably his strongest card and may let him survive the next two years but I think a resignation or an announcement that he will not run in 2020 is very likely as soon as this summer.

[Cog]

A prosecutor would have to show that the Trump's knowingly engaged in tax fraud for prison to be part of any resolution. Otherwise, you get a fine and a judgement for back taxes. Since Trump's returns are most likely subject to IRS audits every year, I'm doubtful about taxes nailing Trump or his family.

The way you get to Trump, is for Mueller to indict his family for something like perjury. Then offer to let them go if Trump resigns.

A lot of people have underestimated Trump in the last three years. They are sitting on a couch at home while he sits in the Oval office.

[Newfie]

No prediction, but a possibility.

Trump is the kind of guy who has to reach ever higher, have something to strive for. It’s what keeps him alive. Now he has become President. Is that his apex, is there something beyond President? Does he NEED to be re-elected? If not then????

I would not be surprised to see him fail physically either in the short term. Or if not then to fail very shortly after leaving office.

[Cog]

That would not surprise me either Newfie. With the right genetics you can abuse your body with overeating, overwork, and no exercise. That is Donald Trump. But when it does catch up with you its a cascade of real bad stuff that happens.

[GHung]

O_S said; "I'm no Trump fan, but name calling isn't exactly a credible prediction, or way to make judgements.

I wasn't making a prediction, and what you call a "judgement" is merely me making a sane assessment of the President's mental condition and personality. But rather than rationalize our positions, try a simple experiment. Pretend you knew nothing about Trump; who he is, his age, his position, his past. Just some anonymous person out there. Then go to http://www.trumptwitterarchive.com/ and start reading.

And comparing Trump to Jimmy Carter, or any other President, for the sake of this discussion, is useless; an attempt to deflect. This thread isn't about them, and who they were has absolutely no bearing on Trump going forward. Anyway, your President is becoming increasingly isolated and the Executive branch is clearly in chaos. Maybe you should focus on that rather than trying to normalize this President's behavior.

[Cog]

His behavior, as you call it, got him elected to the presidency. A win is a win.

[GHung]

His behavior, as you call it, got him elected to the presidency. A win is a win.

Hitler got "elected" as have other lunatics. Care to try again?

[Cog]

Everyone I don't like is a Nazi. LOL Godwin's Law is alive and well at Peak Oil. Call him a Klan member next time for a change of pace.

[GHung]

Everyone I don't like is a Nazi. LOL Godwin's Law is alive and well at Peak Oil. Call him a Klan member next time for a change of pace.

Once again, you imply that something was said that wasn't. Dishonest,, like Trump. Maybe you should try honesty before it's too late.

[Ibon]

I tend to think Trump will fizzle out as an anomaly in American politics rather than a disruptive force that threatens democracy. His bombastic ego puts him much more in the Mussolini category rather than Hitler.

If Hitler was a contemporary demagogue Trump would be his Mussolini. Watching Trump next to Putin illustrates this.

I think as Trumps term draws toward the end we will see Democrats less reactionary to being baited and we will see Republicans moving on from Trump. Both parties are going to strategize around centrist candidates that promote more statesmanship and civility. The public is growing weary of a one trick pony that only focuses on grievances. I have been saying this for some time.

As I also mentioned peak partisan division is here or already starting to swing toward unity. It's an early prediction but I am guessing this to be the case.

When Trump sees that baiting democrats doesn't have the effect it used to and when he sees his base a little less enthusiastic over pumping up the grievances Trump himself will see that his shelf life has expired. This will put the focus off of him and marginalize him. When his ego senses this he will choose not go for a 2nd term...

The minute his ego does not get the publics undivided attention he will lose interest.

I will probably have to fork over $100 bucks to Cog in the end. This is not all leading up to the crescendo of an impeachment.... it is going to slowly fizzle down to a much less hysterical place.

[Plantagenet]

Everyone I don't like is a Nazi. LOL Godwin's Law is alive and well at Peak Oil. Call him a Klan member next time for a change of pace.

The good guys wear white hats and the bad guys wear black hats.

Trump is a Nazi and the Ds are the resistance.

The vast majority of people can only process very simple ideas, and the mainstream media is more then happy to accommodate them with a steady supply of simple music, simple TV shows, simple movies, simple news and simple politics, with all the players assigned white hats (Ds) or black hats (Rs). And the media has put the biggest black hat ever on Trump, just in case the duller people in the audience can't figure it out for themselves.

Of course real Nazis would behave much differently then Trump. But the people involved in the play-acting and name-calling for the most part know nothing about history and don't realize that.

If you take a step back its all kind of amusing, actually.

Cheers!

[Plantagenet]

My own prediction is that we will enter a world recession sometime next year. The stock market sell-off around the world probably signals a recession is coming in 6-8 months. The US economy will also go into recession, and Trump and the Rs will be blamed. The Ds will sweep to a glorious victory in 2020, taking both houses and the presidency, and President Hillary will wear a purple pantsuit with green velour pinstripes highlighted with a modest and small but very sparkly tiara at her inauguration in 2021.

Cheers!

[GHung]

Everyone I don't like is a Nazi. LOL Godwin's Law is alive and well at Peak Oil. Call him a Klan member next time for a change of pace.

The good guys wear white hats and the bad guys wear black hats.

Trump is a Nazi and the Ds are the resistance.

The vast majority of people can only process very simple ideas, and the mainstream media is more then happy to accommodate them with a steady supply of simple music, simple TV shows, simple movies, simple news and simple politics, with all the players assigned white hats (Ds) or black hats (Rs). And the media has put the biggest black hat ever on Trump, just in case the duller people in the audience can't figure it out for themselves.

Of course real Nazis would behave much differently then Trump. But the people involved in the play-acting for the most part know nothing about history and don't realize that.

If you take a step back its all kind of amusing, actually.

Cheers!

Except for the part where Cog was assigning this tack to me and my comment, which was him creating a strawman, and a very dishonest one at that. Not surprised considering the source. Seems it is impossible to make a comment these days without it being warped into something it isn't. Around my place, we call that lying.

[evilgenius]

US interest rates will keep rising. Trump's ability to easily take credit for a new America will also fall on hard times. When he gauges that his supporters are actually close to calling him a charade there will be a war. He won't have any problem at all getting support after that. He knows how to push those particular buttons. People will marvel how he could pull off the time honored young men fighting for old men's interests thing so easily in an age when we all thought we were better than that. America will look a lot like the classic Vietnam era America did politically, with the exception that the international backdrop will be totally different. The chasm between that Cold War backdrop and the one of today, and what results of America's contact with it, will be the number one story for the next ten years.