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Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Mon 20 Aug 2018, 19:47:23

Some Arctic Ground No Longer Freezing—Even in Winter
Cherskiy, Russia—Nikita Zimov was teaching students to do ecological fieldwork in northern Siberia when he stumbled on a disturbing clue that the frozen land might be thawing far faster than expected.

Zimov, like his father, Sergey Zimov, has spent years running a research station that tracks climate change in the rapidly warming Russian Far East. So when students probed the ground and took soil samples amid the mossy hummocks and larch forests near his home, 200 miles north of the Arctic Circle, Nikita Zimov suspected something wasn't right.

In April he sent a team of workers out with heavy drills to be sure. They bored into the soil a few feet down and found thick, slushy mud. Zimov said that was impossible. Cherskiy, his community of 3,000 along the Kolyma River, is one of the coldest spots on Earth. Even in late spring, ground below the surface should be frozen solid.

Except this year, it wasn't.

Every winter across the Arctic, the top few inches or feet of soil and rich plant matter freezes up before thawing again in summer. Beneath this active layer of ground extending hundreds of feet deeper sits continuously frozen earth called permafrost, which, in places, has stayed frozen for millennia.

But in a region where temperatures can dip to 40 degrees below zero Fahrenheit, the Zimovs say unusually high snowfall this year worked like a blanket, trapping excess heat in the ground. They found sections 30 inches deep—soils that typically freeze before Christmas—that had stayed damp and mushy all winter. For the first time in memory, ground that insulates deep Arctic permafrost simply did not freeze in winter.

"This is a big deal," says Ted Schuur, a permafrost expert at Northern Arizona University. "In the permafrost world, this is a significant milestone in a disturbing trend—like carbon in the atmosphere reaching 400 parts per million."


Eleven miles downriver from where the Zimovs’ started their drilling, Mathias Goeckede with Germany's Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry spends weeks each summer traversing crumbling boardwalks over spongy Siberian ground. He tracks carbon exchange between the earth and the atmosphere.

Measurements at his site show that snow depth there has roughly doubled in five years. When excessive snow smothers the ground, warmth below the surface may not dissipate during winter. Data from a drill hole on Goeckede's site appears to capture that phenomenon: In April, temperatures 13 inches below ground there increased roughly 10 degrees Fahrenheit in that same five-year period.

Thousands of miles away, Vladimir Romanovsky saw something similar. Romanovsky, a permafrost expert at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks, runs some of the most extensive permafrost monitoring sites in North America, with detailed records going back 25 years, and in some cases longer.

"For all years before 2014, the complete freeze-up of the active layer would happen in mid-January," he says. "Since 2014, the freeze-up date has shifted to late February and even March."

But this winter, Fairbanks, too, saw extremely heavy snow. And for the first time on record, the active layer at two of Romanovsky's sites didn't freeze at all.

"This is really a very important threshold," he adds.


"This really is astounding," says Max Holmes, an Arctic scientist with Woods Hole Research Center in Massachusetts.

"It's worrisome," says Sue Natali, a permafrost expert, also with Woods Hole, who saw an active layer not re-freeze recently during a research trip to Alaska's Yukon region. "When we see things happening that haven't happened in the lifetime of the scientists studying them, that should be a concern."
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby jedrider » Mon 20 Aug 2018, 20:12:09

Global Warming and too much snowfall at the same time? That's a gas, perhaps, methane :-D

Thanks Cid.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 21 Aug 2018, 06:11:15

Good catch, G. More on that situation here: http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2018/08/ ... nland.html
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 01 Oct 2018, 15:53:00

How Feedback Loops Are Driving Runaway Climate Change

https://truthout.org/articles/how-feedb ... =mashshare
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Sat 13 Oct 2018, 20:06:53

Thousands of Methane Filled Pingos Expected to Blow
The otherwise flat sea floor between the island archipelago of Svalbard and Finnmark, Norway’s northernmost county, is pocked by massive craters.

Now, scientists at the Centre for Arctic Gas Hydrates, Environment and Climate (CAGE) at UiT - The Arctic University of Norway, have collected new geophysical data on the craters in the area.

But instead of finding just a few craters, researchers found hundreds of them. They range in size from 300 to 1000 metres in diameter. And they have been blown out of solid bedrock.

The craters are what remain after a methane gas explosion. Or more correctly: gas blow-outs.

The blow-outs may have occurred over a couple of days.

But these blow-outs must have involved enormous forces at the bottom of the Barents Sea, since the holes have been blasted out of solid bedrock.

The researchers in Tromsø expect further blow-outs, as some gas chambers have not yet blown, and others are slowly building up pressure again.

Andreassen thinks there will be more large blow-outs in the ocean floor south of Svalbard, as the seabed becomes warmer and gas-hydrate reservoirs thaw.

Andreassen says there is probably even more methane gas locked in the seabed around Greenland and in the Arctic Ocean than is found in the Barents Sea.

That could lead to some extremely large craters.

Researchers have now examined satellite images of northern Siberian from a few years back and looked at the area where the explosions occurred. They found that the year before the huge crater appeared, there were large pingos in the same place.

Russian scientists have now mapped 7,000 gas-filled pingos that are poking through the thawing permafrost, visible in satellite images that illustrate how the pingos form and grow.

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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Mon 15 Oct 2018, 21:03:12

IPCC Admits End of the World as we know it
The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has just come out with its latest report on the Earth’s ecosystemic health, and even in its gussied up findings — what many are calling “hopium” these days — it is, if read carefully, a prediction of the end of civilization.

According to the U.N. report, the only way to avoid this disaster would require “rapid and far-reaching” changes in the capitalist system that is the substructure of civilization, East and West. What must be changed, it says, are energy systems, land use, urban design, transportation, and building design — at a minimum. Changed so they contribute no greenhouse gases to the atmosphere — and can you imagine a world where transportation, for example, doesn’t pollute the air and we get along without cars, airplanes and cargo ships?

Though “energy systems” looks like a mild phrase, it actually implies the end of coal, gas and oil in the near future, the very fuels upon which industrial capitalism is based. There is no way that so-called “renewable” sources (which of course are not renewable because solar panels, windmills and batteries have finite lives and must be replaced) could ever replace those carbon-based fuels.

No wonder that most scientists — and anybody else who knows how politics works — say that this sort of wholesale economic change will not come about. There’s not a political system of any stripe anywhere in the world that is prepared to, or even knows how to, transform a society out of our modern way of life. That’s why one scientist has said in response to the U.N. report that it is nothing more than an academic exercise in “what would happen if a frog had wings.”


A decade ago, the “father of global warming”—the first scientist to sound the alarm on climate change in the 1980s to the US Congress—announced that we were too late: the planet had already hit the danger zone.

In a landmark paper, James Hansen, then head of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, along with seven other leading climate scientists, described how a global average temperature above 1°Celsius (C)—involving a level of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere of around 450 parts per million (ppm)—would lead to “practically irreversible ice sheet and species loss.” But, they added, new data showed that even 1°C was too hot.

At the time the paper was issued in 2008, atmospheric concentrations of CO2 were around 385 ppm. This is “already in the dangerous zone,” explained Hansen and his colleagues, noting that most climate models excluded self-reinforcing amplifying feedbacks which would be triggered at this level—things like “ice sheet disintegration, vegetation migration, and GHG [greenhouse gas] release from soils, tundra, or ocean sediments.”

Such feedbacks constitute tipping points which, once triggered, can lead to irreversible or even runaway climate change processes.

According to Hansen and his co-authors, these feedbacks “may begin to come into play on time scales as short as centuries or less.” The only viable solution to guarantee a safe climate, they wrote, is to reduce the level of greenhouse gases to around 350 ppm, if not lower.

Today, we are well in breach of the 1°C upper limit. And we have breached this limit at a much lower level of atmospheric CO2 than Hansen thought would be necessary to warm this much—as of May 2018, the monthly average atmospheric CO2 had reached 410ppm (the August measurement puts it at 409ppm.) This is the highest level of CO2 the earth has seen in 800,000 years.

The IPCC says that this would just be the beginning: we are currently on track to hit 3-4°C by end of century, which would lead to a largely unlivable planet.


They STILL haven’t dropped the other shoe. The “Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5C” contains terrifying forecasts about what will happen when we reach an average global temperature 1.5 degrees C higher than the pre-industrial average. (We are now at +1C.) But it still shies away from talking about the feedbacks, the refugees and mass death.

The report is a bracing dose of realism in many ways. It effectively says we can’t afford to go anywhere near +2C. It talks bluntly about the need to end all fossil fuel use, reforest vast tracts of marginal land, and cut down on meat-eating. It even admits that we will probably have to resort to geoengineering — “solar radiation management,” in the jargon.

So far, so good. At least it’s being honest about the problem — but only up to a point. “Not in front of the children” is still the rule for governments when it comes to talking about the mass movements of refugees and the civil and international wars that will erupt when the warming cuts into the food supply. And they still don’t want to talk openly about the feedbacks.

The governments take climate change very seriously these days, but they worry that too much frankness about the cost in lives of going past 1.5C will create irresistible pressure on them to take radical action now. In the ensuing struggle between the scientists and the politicians, the executive summary always gets toned down.

What got removed from the summary this time was any mention of “significant population displacement concentrated in the tropics” at +2C (i.e. mass migrations away from stricken regions, smashing up against borders elsewhere that are slammed shut against the refugees, the real reason for Trump's wall).

Even worse, “tipping points” are barely mentioned in the report. These are the dreaded feedbacks — loss of Arctic sea ice, melting of the permafrost, carbon dioxide and methane release from the oceans — that would trigger unstoppable, runaway warming.

They are called “feedbacks” because they are self-reinforcing processes that are unleashed by the warming we have already caused, and which we cannot shut off even if we end all of our own emissions.

If you don’t go into the feedbacks, then you can’t talk about runaway warming, and going to 4, 5 or 6 degrees C higher average global temperature, and hundreds of millions or billions of deaths. And if you don’t acknowledge that, then you will not treat this as the emergency it really is.


Just two years ago, amid global fanfare, the Paris climate accords were signed — initiating what seemed, for a brief moment, like the beginning of a planet-saving movement. But almost immediately, the international goal it established of limiting global warming to two degrees Celsius began to seem, to many of the world’s most vulnerable, dramatically inadequate; the Marshall Islands’ representative gave it a blunter name, calling two degrees of warming “genocide.”

The alarming new report you may have read about this week from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change — which examines just how much better 1.5 degrees of warming would be than 2 — echoes the charge. “Amplifies” may be the better term. Hundreds of millions of lives are at stake, the report declares, should the world warm more than 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Nearly all coral reefs would die out, wildfires and heat waves would sweep across the planet annually, and the interplay between drought and flooding and temperature would mean that the world’s food supply would become dramatically less secure. Avoiding that scale of suffering, the report says, requires such a thorough transformation of the world’s economy, agriculture, and culture that “there is no documented historical precedent.”

If you are alarmed by those sentences, you should be — they are horrifying. But it is, actually, worse than that — considerably worse. That is because the new report’s worst-case scenario is, actually, a best case. In fact, it is a beyond-best-case scenario. What has been called a genocidal level of warming is already our inevitable future. The question is how much worse than that it will get.

Barring the arrival of dramatic new carbon-sucking technologies, which are so far from scalability at present that they are best described as fantasies of industrial absolution, it will not be possible to keep warming below two degrees Celsius — the level the new report describes as a climate catastrophe. As a planet, we are coursing along a trajectory that brings us north of four degrees. The IPCC is right that two degrees marks a world of climate catastrophe.

But the real meaning of the report is not “climate change is much worse than you think,” because anyone who knows the state of the research will find nothing surprising in it. The real meaning is, “you now have permission to freak out.”

At two degrees, the melting of ice sheets will pass a tipping point of collapse, flooding dozens of the world’s major cities. Four hundred million more people will suffer from water scarcity, and even in the northern latitudes heat waves will kill thousands each summer. It will be worse in the planet’s equatorial band. In India, where many cities now numbering in the many millions would become unliveably hot, there would be 32 times as many extreme heat waves, each lasting five times as long and exposing, in total, 93 times more people. This is two degrees — practically speaking, our absolute best-case climate scenario.

At three degrees, southern Europe will be in permanent drought. The average drought in Central America would last 19 months and in the Caribbean 21 months. In northern Africa, the figure is 60 months — five years. The areas burned each year by wildfires would double in the Mediterranean and sextuple in the United States. Beyond the sea-level rise, which will already be swallowing cities from Miami Beach to Jakarta, damages just from river flooding will grow 30-fold in Bangladesh, 20-fold in India, and as much as 60-fold in the U.K. This is three degrees — better than we’d do if all the nations of the world honored their Paris commitments, which none of them are. Practically speaking, barring those dramatic tech deus ex machinas, this seems to me about as positive a realistic outcome as it is rational to expect.


Key dangers largely left out of the IPCC special report on 1.5C of warming are raising alarm among some scientists who fear we may have underestimated the impacts of humans on the Earth’s climate.

The IPCC report sets out the world’s current knowledge of the impacts of 1.5C of warming and clearly shows the dangers of breaching such a limit.

Tipping points merit only a few mentions in the IPCC report. Durwood Zaelke, founder of the Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development, said: “The IPCC report fails to focus on the weakest link in the climate chain: the self-reinforcing feedbacks which, if allowed to continue, will accelerate warming and risk cascading climate tipping points and runaway warming.”


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Last edited by Cid_Yama on Mon 15 Oct 2018, 21:37:28, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 15 Oct 2018, 21:34:50

Yeah, I noted that. I think that generally the MSM either downplayed it or can’t grasp the meaning.

Didn’t get the attention it deserved. We are truly brain dead.

Crimminy even the Trump NHSTA group said there will be 7°F or warming by 2100 and we can’t stopnitnwithout wrecking the economy. No one seemed to pick up on that either.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Tue 16 Oct 2018, 11:47:29

Here in Poland at the seaside we have very nice, warm weather. Beautiful autumn like never before.
Lets assume that all this civilization, humanity, maybe even human species are to go.
Thats fine, lets be it.
Mother Nature doesn't need us anymore it seems.
We have completed an all important task to bring back locked up carbon and also other elements into circulation.
Mission accomplished.

Thanks God that Ms Merckel and comparable loons are not running politics here.
We are watching with some disbelief and sincere amusement, how our usually clever and well organized neighbours (Germans) are voluntarily converting themselves into failed state and a rapeland and those of them who are oposed pending insanity are called "Nazis".
Or in Sweden and in the UK women who are *reporting* migrant rapes are sometimes prosecuted themselves for racial hatered or charged with *disorderly behavior*.
This have *never* happened on voluntary basis in recorded history of humankind.
Amazing!

Final years of civilization's existence can be an entertainment. We won't whine, won't miss anything and regret nothing.
Lets enjoy while party last and when our turn to die comes, lets be it.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 16 Oct 2018, 20:42:02

EU, the last part of your screed was wildly off topic and quite offensive.

If you feel some overwhelming need to talk about sexual assault, for some reason, please open your own thread on it somewhere, but keep it out of GW threads please. Thanks.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 16 Oct 2018, 22:29:51

Starting a new thread might be a good idea. Perhaps on a somewhat broader context about how immigration is being felt around the world.

I did not interpret that as a screed or offensive. It may or may not be accurate, I’ve no way of knowing.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Wed 17 Oct 2018, 02:11:59

dohboi wrote:EU, the last part of your screed was wildly off topic and quite offensive.

If you feel some overwhelming need to talk about sexual assault, for some reason, please open your own thread on it somewhere, but keep it out of GW threads please. Thanks.

Hmm... migration of barbarians into Europe is largerly GW related (at least IMO) but the topic is interesting enough in itself.
Don't know, maybe another thread like "Self annihilation of liberal West by embracement of barbarism" is due. Very nice doom related subject for sure.

One can begin reading here:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rogerscrut ... 3506d1754a
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 17 Oct 2018, 06:29:16

Racism is never on topic...

And (to get back on topic) if you think that a few people of a culture or color you don't like moving into your neighborhood is your biggest concern, you haven't been paying much attention (or have been spending a lot of energy denying reality).

...•Hundreds of millions of lives are at stake... should the world warm more than 1.5 degrees Celsius, which it will do as soon as 2040, if current trends continue.

•Nearly all coral reefs would die out,
•wildfires and heat waves would sweep across the planet annually, and
•the interplay between drought and flooding and temperature would mean that the world’s food supply would become dramatically less secure.

Avoiding that scale of suffering, the report says, requires such a thorough transformation of the world’s economy, agriculture, and culture that “there is no documented historical precedent.”


[my formatting]

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/10/ ... -that.html

And this is very likely soft-pedaling the real horrors that await in the not-so-distant future, and the depths that society would have to transform to avoid or even mitigate them:

...What has been called a genocidal level of warming is already our inevitable future. The question is how much worse than that it will get...


...We are on track for four degrees of warming, more than twice as much as most scientists believe is possible to endure without inflicting climate suffering on hundreds of millions or threatening at least parts of the social and political infrastructure we call, grandly, “civilization.”

The only thing that changed, this week, is that the scientists, finally, have hit the panic button.


The 'plan' seems to be (and really always has been since the beginning of industrial society) to save the 'economy' by obliterating the planet. Of course, the global economy will also explode anyway, and probably sooner rather than later, as it already nearly did in '08.

We will learn too late (if anyone is around to think about it) that slash-and-burn economies don't work so well on a global scale when there aren't other handy, habitable globes around to migrate to (in spite of KJ's dreamy optimism on that subject).
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 17 Oct 2018, 08:06:23

Like you said, new topic.
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Abrupt Climate Change Pt. 2

Unread postby Ibon » Wed 24 Oct 2018, 08:02:31

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Ibon wrote:First it's 3 miles inland. We had it on the market, decided not to sell in the end.
We paid $ 500k for both houses in 2009 at the bottom of the market and last year we grossed $ 130k rental. Since I refuse to buy stocks and play the market I need to find a better return doing something else with that asset before I would sell and the sheeples are still happily in denial.... so no hurry still at least from SLR.

I looked and see that the average land is roughly 100 feet above sea level in Florida.


Despite all the Cassandra-ism around here, short of a giant meteor hitting the earth, nuclear attack, etc., you should profit nicely if trends change and you act in a reasonable timeframe.


Sold. Back to Panama in two days. No more worries of sea level rise, hurricanes, and Florida's history of boom and bust real estate.

Bought that house for $ 375k. With cash. No mortgage. Sold for $ 695K 8 years later. Short term rentals in 8 years produced a net income of close to $ 400k. Actual net gain in 8 years was over
$ 700k.

Would have been hard to do that in the stock market.
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Re: Abrupt Climate Change

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 24 Oct 2018, 09:38:25

Newfie wrote:Very familiar with wind driven tides. Typically in shallow waters with some decent fetch. From what I make out this is persistent, not wind driven.

I’m gonna try to keep an eye on it and see if I can make some sense of it. I’ve no good explanation so far.


El Nino/La Nina is more than anything else a long term wind cycle. When the winds blowing east to west over the broad pacific get really going and hold 20 or 30 months the water level on beaches in Indonesia and eastern Australia can be as much as 2 meters above mean sea level. When the winds die down and all that piled up water flows back eastward the drop can be quite visually obvious. I suspect what you are observing is something similar. The jet stream frequently 'stalls' in the sense that the Rosby waves cease their migration from west to east thus creating a persistent air flow pattern that lasts weeks rather than days. Couple this with the storm surge from the recent hurricane and the surge simply has not relaxed all the way back down to mean sea level yet. Once the current Rosby wave migrates on the water will return to its prior average levels. Alternatively about a decade ago now the great east coast current split with a branch continuing up the west side of Greenland where before the water had flowed south on that side. this resulted in water 'piling up' in harbors all along the west coast of Greenland as the two currents collided and reached a 'new normal' Is it possible something similar is taking place around Grenada?
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Re: Abrupt Climate Change

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 24 Oct 2018, 17:36:03

We’ll ive been watching the tide here in Grenada and talking to a few folks. Consensus is that there was a period or two of very heavy rain and since then the tides have been higher than normal, about a foot. Talking to the folks who work here is worthless other than to understand how little folks know. So one guy explained how the tides are higher because the sand filled in and the water is shallower so the tide adjusted to stay above the sand. OK then.

I’m still have no idea what’s going on, none of the explanations I’ve heard make any sense. The barometric pressure is constant, there is little wind, the rain makes no sense as the yard is flat and only a couple of feet above sea level so any rain will just run off, the bay is open to the ocean.

12 01 22N. 61 40 45W if anyone is interested.
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Re: Abrupt Climate Change

Unread postby GHung » Tue 30 Oct 2018, 20:04:21

Feds are 'trying to silence' the kids suing the Trump administration over global warming

(CNN)The "climate kids" were back on the steps of a federal courthouse in Oregon on Monday. But their case against the United States government, alleging violations of their constitutional rights to a safe and livable atmosphere in the face of runaway global warming, has dragged on for so long without a trial that some of them aren't exactly kids anymore. ...

...... After years of hearings, a trial date had been set for October 29.
But 10 days before trial, the US Supreme Court issued a stay that has temporarily halted proceedings. The court is considering the federal government's petition for writ of mandamus, which the Department of Justice describes as an "extraordinary remedy" that should be used in "exceptional circumstances of peculiar emergency or public importance."
Federal attorneys are questioning whether the kids have a right to "a climate system capable of sustaining human life" under the Constitution or public trust doctrine. They say federal authorities will waste time and money by responding to what they call "baseless claims." And they argue in court filings it's a violation of the separation of powers to ask courts essentially to impose climate-change policy on federal officials, rather than waiting for Congress or other elected officials to do that.
"In our view, the Oregon lawsuit is an unconstitutional attempt to use a single court to control the entire nation's energy and climate policy," ......

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/30/health/s ... index.html
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Re: Abrupt Climate Change

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 31 Oct 2018, 07:37:55

Hardly a baseless suit IMHO.

Life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. Seems to hit all three.

We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.


“Promote general welfare” seems to open the topic for discussion right there.

It does not surprise me that they didn’t have a clause that says explicitly “Tho shall not spoil the air, waters or land shared by the people’s.” They probably thought no one would be that stupid. Kind of like saying “Tho shall not inject the masses with opioids.” But, hey, they were wrong, we are that stupid.
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Re: Abrupt Climate Change

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Thu 01 Nov 2018, 17:51:13

Right on. Too bad there are so many that believe that profit outweighs the general welfare.

This is nothing new. See the Highland Clearances for a great example.

https://www.electricscotland.com/histor ... rances.htm
"For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it." - Patrick Henry

The level of injustice and wrong you endure is directly determined by how much you quietly submit to. Even to the point of extinction.
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Re: Abrupt Climate Change

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 01 Nov 2018, 19:05:58

Yes Cid, we are a crule and heartless species.
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