[Yoshua]

The falling AUDUSD exchange rate has been followed by a fall in the WTI price and the AUDUSD exchange rate points to USD 40 for the WTI today.

A falling AUDUSD exchange rate is an indication of deflation in the global economy. The global economy is slowing down due to high energy prices.

[kublikhan]

The falling AUDUSD exchange rate has been followed by a fall in the WTI price and the AUDUSD exchange rate points to USD 40 for the WTI today.

A falling AUDUSD exchange rate is an indication of deflation in the global economy. The global economy is slowing down due to high energy prices.

I can see why you are a shortonoil groupie, neither one of you knows how to read a graph. Let me try explaining this to you again. That graph is called a double y axis graph or secondary y axis. That means it has two y axis, one for each data plot. For the WTI price, you need to use the right axis. The WTI price is the blue line. IE, the numbers on the right are for the BLUE LINE ONLY. For the exchange rate of the Australian dollar to the US dollar you use the left axis. The Australian dollar to US dollar exchange rate is the red line. IE, the numbers on the left are for the RED LINE ONLY. The price of WTI is NOT USD 40 on that graph. It is USD 68.

I recommend you stay away from graphs you can't read and look at simple numbers next time. There are a plethora of websites that publish the current WTI price.
Try this one: oilprice.com

or this one: www.bloomberg.com/energy

As you can see at those links, WTI is around $69 at the time of this writing, NOT $40.

[kublikhan]

And we have just set a new backpedal record! Someone call Guinness!

Indeed. It would be hilarious if not so predictable.

Yep. Exactly as predicted:

Feb 18, 2017 - I think that about 2 more years should provide the proof of whether the ETP model is accurate or not.

Two years won't prove anything to the adherents, they will just move the goal posts.

Exactly. We saw the same thing with adherents of the ecat. Every time a goal post was missed Rossi just moved the goal post. And the hardcore swallowed it hook, line, and sinker. In the years ahead when oil prices fail to fall to the level of the "Maximum Affordability Price" short will just spin some BS, make a new graph, and continue to peddle his model. Wash, rinse, repeat.

The Etp Model, Q & A Pt. 8

Except now he's going to peddle a book too!

[shortonoil]

Yoshua:

A falling AUDUSD exchange rate is an indication of deflation in the global economy. The global economy is slowing down due to high energy prices.

Almost every currency in the world fell against the dollar in 2018. The US is sweeping up immense capital outflows as a result. That is making the US economy look good in comparison to everyone else. Of course, its economy is in the trash heap with falling home prices, falling auto sales, and falling everything except for companies who can buy their own stock back using gigantic heaps of FED funny money. The peripheral economies are falling over by the day as a result. As we move past Peak, and become unable to continue servicing the world's monstrous debt load financial crisis will ensue on a regular bases. The big money already knows that something is amiss, and bond prices are in free fall. The modern world built its economy on the premise of unlimited growth, without taking into consideration that the resources it depended upon were finite! Now that the single most important commodity it depends upon is in decline; the one that makes the production of all other commodities possible, irregularities are starting to appear. Australian is very dependent on the exports of its raw materials. Without those exports its currency would look like Naples’s. With the means to utilize those exports declining with the oil that makes that possible its currency is following in lock step. The US will follow in time as its capital inflows slow from a decline in the economies that are now providing it. We are still trying to act like there is no real problem at hand. We are acting like the man who plans on buying fire insurance on his house after the flames have started to leap through the roof!

None of what is to come was pre-ordained. We had alternatives at one point in time. We gave them up to placate a select few special interest groups. As the present systems melts down, and we begin to think about rebuilding, we will have about 1,000 years to contemplate the errors that were made in the past. There will be a huge pile of bones that we will be able to ascend to look out over the future.

BW

[kublikhan]

Excellent post as usual? You mean a string of BS as usual. First off home prices are not falling. They are rising:
Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index

Unemployment levels are at record lows:
U.S. Unemployment Rate Falls to Lowest Level Since 1969

GDP is growing strong:

The United States economy notched a 4.1 percent annualized growth rate for this year’s second quarter, according to a July 27 report by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. That’s much faster than the roughly 2 percent that’s been typical since 2001. For the record, four other quarters since the Great Recession have had growth above 4 percent, but it hasn’t happened since 2014. Mr. Trump depicted the news as a sign that lighter taxes and regulation could boost growth above 3 percent for the whole year, which would be the fastest pace for any full calendar year since the Great Recession. Some reports since the GDP number was released have also shown signs of economic strength. Consumers kicked off the third quarter by pushing retail sales up 0.5 percent in July, the Commerce Department reported Aug. 15.

US economy: How strong is it?

The fed reversed QE and is now doing tightening on 2 fronts: Raising interest rates AND reducing it's balance sheet:

The Fed Just Raised Its Rate Again

The Fed’s balance sheet is shrinking

Total debt to GDP shrinking:

Many people may be aware of the ballooning US government debt, which is now approaching $20 trillion in 2017. What may not be obvious, however, is that since 2009 the total debt outstanding in the US (including consumer, business, and government debt) has actually dropped when compared to GDP. In fact, the ratio of total us debt to GDP peaked in 2009/Q1 around the 400% mark and has since steadily decreased.

Total US Debt to GDP Ratio – Deleveraging Analysis (2018)

Total BS from short, as usual. But what do you expect from a guy who doesn't even know what inflation is?

[Cog]

One dead Muslim out of thousands who die to violence yearly doesn't register on my care-o-meter. Khasoggi was a member of the radical Muslim Brotherhood and paid the price for it.

The Saudis do need some help on their wet work projects. Perhaps the Israelis could help them out on that.

[Cog]

One dead Muslim out of thousands who die to violence yearly doesn't register on my care-o-meter. Khasoggi was a member of the radical Muslim Brotherhood and paid the price for it.

That's deplorable and you should be ashamed. Are you a paid troll? Or do you make an #ss of yourself for free?

Who knows really. I wouldn't have wacked Khasoggi that way. Too sloppy.

[Cog]

Well people in the Middle East wacked each other all the time for a variety of reasons. Turkey has imprisoned hundreds of political dissidents and jounalists. Iran does the same thing. None of which is really related to oil directly. They have been doing so for centuries. Free speech and political disagreements in that region lead to imprisonment if you are lucky, death if you are not.

Not really a US interest as long as the spice flows. We sell them arms, we get oil. It's just business.

[KaiserJeep]

Don't make too much out of a simple power play. Multiple factions are juggling for power among the Al-Saud. They have never played by the rules, never been fair, never been paragons of virtue from anybody's standpoint. When one such faction succeeds in displacing the others at the pinnacle of a black petroleum pyramid, it will definately involve more murder.

We can pretend we care, or not. Nor does it matter which politician from which party postures in Congress, or what they say. Anyways we will continue to buy oil, and the KSA will continue to sell oil.

[onlooker]

Nothing strange here. Whistleblowers in all realms are often murdered. Such is the ruthless world of Capitalism and the State. Profit and power are the motivations

[onlooker]

And because we still need their oil

[Tanada]

I will repeat what I said the other day. Thousands of people around the world die because of government orders every week. Because this individual claimed the job title 'journalist' we have been hearing about his death endlessly since it happened, but to my eyes he is no better or worse than any other victim of violence. Hundreds more die because they irritate someone with the power to tell their 'body guards' to 'make the problem disappear' Certainly the government should not send hit squads after individuals who annoy them, but pretending this fellow was special is stretching reality into some kind of bizarre unjustified shape. Powerful people in or out of government are risky to annoy, particularly in countries where rule of law is not the custom.

[GHung]

Those who risk their lives to dissent and hold power to account are pretty special in my world. Sad that some here want to just dismiss that as if those folks don't matter much. Says more about them than it does about those who stand up to be counted.

Because this individual claimed the job title 'journalist' we have been hearing about his death endlessly since it happened.......

The guy worked as a journalist his entire adult life. You dismiss that why? Because he didn't have a degree as in journalism? Really?

Jamal Khashoggi began his career as a regional manager for Tihama Bookstores from 1983 to 1984.[21] Later he worked as a correspondent for the Saudi Gazette and as an assistant manager for Okaz from 1985 to 1987.[21] He continued his career as a reporter for various daily and weekly Arab newspapers from 1987 to 1990, including Asharq Al-Awsat, Al Majalla and Al Muslimoon.[6][21] Khashoggi became managing editor and acting editor-in-chief of Al Madina in 1991 and his tenure in that position lasted until 1999...

From 1991 to 1999, he was a foreign correspondent in such countries as Afghanistan, Algeria, Kuwait, Sudan, and in the Middle East.[6] It is also claimed that he served with both Saudi Arabian Intelligence Agency and possibly the United States in Afghanistan during this period.[23] He then was appointed a deputy editor-in-chief of Arab News, and served in the post from 1999 to 2003....

In case you've forgotten, those who founded this nation annoyed the crap out of King George and Parliament.

[onlooker]

Riyadh dismissed Ankara's calls to extradite 18 Saudis wanted for the murder of Khashoggi. 

"The individuals are Saudi nationals. They're detained in Saudi Arabia, and the investigation is in Saudi Arabia, and they will be prosecuted in Saudi Arabia," Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir told a regional defence forum in Bahrain. 

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/10/ ... 42286.html

Well, it looks like they found some people to pin the murder on. How convenient Saudi nationals, so legal proceedings all in KSA. No, independent oversight, nothing leaking to the world community, all hush hush. Yes typical, when dealing with the real power players of the planet, Justice only goes to a certain point up the totem pole

[KaiserJeep]

I'm just not seeing that. By definition, the oil peak occurs when half the resource is consumed, and half remains. The first half was of course, much easier to extract, the second half will come with greater cost and difficulty, but will still be profitable as prices rise. But recall that this is the largest resource on the planet, and peak happened after a century.

It's fairly certain that the whole Middle East has peaked, and even more clear that the Saudi fields have done so. However they will be pumping for decades to come, barring yet another widespread war. In this case, "widespread" is a conflict on the scale of WW2, as opposed to either of the Gulf Wars. Certainly time enough for two more generations of Arab despots.

So NOPE, no Doom here.

[KaiserJeep]

Of course, what Pete is not telling you is that murder is endemic in Arab culture. Even the word "assassin" was derived in the 11th century from a despised group of "Hashishin" which literally means "hashish eaters". It was the 11th century version of a meth head.

Come to think of it, after pot got legalized, there are probably quite a few potential Hashishin up behind the Redwood Curtain. Hopefully, Pete's not among their number. (No offense intended, buddy.)

[onlooker]

It seemx thatthe intrigue in KSA is multilayered and deep. MBS, in fact is betraying US govt/corporate interests by NOT opening up to privatizing of Saufi assets as he seemed to have promised. Read all about it

The real reasons the knives are out for MBS

https://www.mintpressnews.com/the-real- ... w.facebook

[evilgenius]

We're not allowed to know what the Saudi's position is in terms of peaking, but one thing is certain, they got totally whacked when America entered into the last recession. They got used to selling oil at such a high price that they built an infrastructure around it. Then oil prices collapsed. Now they have to continue to meet the expectations of that infrastructure. They thought they could do it by selling an interest in Aramco. As it's gone along I think they've realized that won't cut it. They may not be able to over supply and make money in volume like they once could, but that doesn't mean they have peaked. It only means the world has grown beyond that.

They bailed on the IPO because they realized they could bail on it in the face of rising US interest rates. They only had to stall long enough for the initial Trump euphoria to run its course. Then they could rely upon the Fed. Rates had to go up at some point. The rising rates will cut US production. It won't go down right away, but the Saudis can wait it out. When the time comes, they'll reintroduce the concept of selling off an interest in Aramco. In the meantime, with coveted dollars flowing into the country they should be fine, once the pump is actually primed. They won't have soiled the bed because they never slept in it. And it should be a good thing for the offering that it was touted once before and the reception for it was at least lukewarm.

They are not going to share power. They are not going to engage in a democratic experiment. They won't even do it if their safety is guaranteed. So, the largess from oil revenue is their only way of maintaining peace. They're staking a lot on the US not entering into another big recession, but only a controlled one out of which it recovers, then lowering the dollar and re-engaging the rest of the world, and can pay higher oil prices once again. I'm guessing the margins are actually pretty thin. If they get it wrong there probably will be a revolution. But this one wouldn't have anything to do with Iran. It would be an entirely Sunni led revolt. Just think of all of the terrible forces, like ISIS, that the Saudis have unleashed upon others, only now set loose domestically.

Just think of what could happen if the US does fall into a bad recession. The Saudi monarchy could go down. Whatever takes its place probably would still deal with the US, but would most likely harbor ill will toward it. The US could find itself on the outs with the entire region.

[charmcitysking]

It seemx thatthe intrigue in KSA is multilayered and deep. MBS, in fact is betraying US govt/corporate interests by NOT opening up to privatizing of Saufi assets as he seemed to have promised. Read all about it

The real reasons the knives are out for MBS

https://www.mintpressnews.com/the-real- ... w.facebook

Thanks for that link OL. Really good piece