[rockdoc123]

Sarcasm is not an argument. Ghawar has been producing oil for 60 years, there are extensive records of infill drilling, increasing water cut etc and the inability of Saudi Arabia to meet it 13 mbpd day capacity claim.

And as you have been told numerous times water cut in Ghawar has been held at 30% for over 10 years according to Aramco. And even if it wasn't as both Rockman and I have pointed out numerous times water cut is meaningless as long as you can deal with extra water, there are lots of fields in the world producing at greater than 90% water cut. According to Aramco reserve numbers (which have now been audited and determined to be correct) there is still 50 or more years left at Ghawar on its own. As to capacity .....you still do not understand what spare capacity means. It means production which can be brought on stream quickly with minimal additional cost meaning the wells have been drilled and completed and tied in with all the necessary separation, gathering systems and plant capacity already in place. The Saudis have been adamant that they would not increase production unless it was necessary. Just recently the King pointed out that they look to market demand as their guidance on how much to produce, and currently they have supplied everything for which there is a buyer. So this is about the hundredth time this has been explained to you and I'm sure you will be spouting off the same nonsense in the not to distant future.
And BTW it has nothing whatsoever to do with the stupid claim made up thread regarding salt precipitation (which doesn't happen) somehow stopping all production in SA in three years time.

[rockdoc123]

and pray tell what does the graph illustrate other than the fact that Opec manages it's production to meet demand?

[rockdoc123]

'Demand' sucks at $80 barrel.

And yet the data disagrees with you …..as it always seems to

[rockdoc123]

Exactly; 4th quarter 2017 was the peak in demand. Not coincidentally . . . synonymous with the peak in supply. You do understand basic capitalism 101, right?

Supply == demand mediated by price. $80 oil say that demand exceeds supply. Simple stuff really. Try it on for size lol

the point of the chart is demand has continued to increase year on year. Supply is there to meet demand. Demand is not exceeding supply, they are pretty much in balance right now just as they were for 3.5 years when oil prices were hovering above $100. But apparently your logic suggests that $80/bbl signals demand exceeding supply whereas $100/bb doesn't.



here were a number of points in that graph where demand peaked or fell off and low and behold it increased after.

You are really grasping at straws here....but with butter fingers.

[EdwinSm]

Looking at the recent charts it does seem to me that pstarr is right that there was a recent peak in average OPEC production and the recent few months have been below that peak. But time here has taught me that one cannot read too much into just a couple of month's figures, so it is far too early to declare "This is the peak (or last major peak) in the mountainous range of OPEC oil production."

A decline this year is interesting, but as the saying goes "One swallow does not a summer make", so "half a year decline in production does not Peak Oil make." There is a down turn, but we need more time to determine if this is just a short one on the (very) bumpy plateau of OPEC oil production or whether this time (after the fourth peak since 2005) it is the start of the fall off the plateau.

[Sys1]

Since the assassination of the journalist Jamal Khashoggi, KSA is the new westworld target.
That's why King of SA and his son Mohammed ben Salmane Al Saoud need to pretend that they can increase or decrease production at will just like God (or Allah, or Buddah if you prefer) in order to be "protected" by USA and keep their crown.
So in their position, I would not be surprised that they use strategic reserves to momentary increase production and keep their position of OPEC main exporter (with Russia) to the world leaders. But, even if it would allow them to earn time, it would be at the terrible expense of a seneca cliff, meaning brutal collapse of oil production after a while.
As the seneca cliff would have to be masked too in a hurry, a war (or at least a financial collapse worse than 2008) would be the best way to do so.
In my opinion, the perfect way to mask a collapse of oil production would be to do war with Iran : People and leaders all other the world would believe that the only reason why oil is not available is war and not peak oil. King of SA would keep his crown for several years more...
"A man reduced to a single instinct: Survive "

[rockdoc123]

Perhaps Khashoggi knew too much, that SA had already peaked?

apparently, you have never read anything he wrote. Please find us one article where he even mentions Saudi oil reserves or remotely suggests they might be in error.
Good luck. He was all about the rights of individuals and the oppressiveness of the regime.

But once again, let's not let facts get in the way of one of your conspiracy theories.

[Sys1]

rockdoc123 : I think that what surprised KSA is that westworld starts to "worry" about human rights in the muslim kingdom.
So the question is not if Khashoggi knew something about peak oil, as he obviously didn't have a clue, the question is :
"What pretext will be put in mainstream medias to confiscate the remaining oil of Middle East?"
Don't forget that USA made up proofs out of thin air with Irak back in 2003...

The economy is about to crash soon, by soon, I mean around 2020. This prevision doesn't come from Nostradamus, it comes from the simple fact that main rates of global banks are currently increasing to cool down oil inflation.
It's the same scenario as the 2008 one, and the result will be the same, and even worse, because we are now more endebted than ever and we have inflated a lot of bubbles, aka real estate, art, bitcoin, facebook... All those bubbles and the banks which feed on it will pop like a financial firework.

Game over.

[rockdoc123]

"What pretext will be put in mainstream medias to confiscate the remaining oil of Middle East?"
Don't forget that USA made up proofs out of thin air with Irak back in 2003...

this is the sort of nonsense commonly thrown out there by conspiracy theory types years ago.
The US got no oil from Iraq. They didn't even win any of the bids for oil refurbishment contracts which were awarded to British and European companies.
The US got no favorabe trade in Iraq oil.
So sorry this particular "theory" was proven to be incredibly stupid a decade ago.

it comes from the simple fact that main rates of global banks are currently increasing to cool down oil inflation.
It's the same scenario as the 2008 one, and the result will be the same, and even worse, because we are now more endebted than ever and we have inflated a lot of bubbles, aka real estate, art, bitcoin, facebook... All those bubbles and the banks which feed on it will pop like a financial firework.

do you actually read anything other than nutty blogs?
Interest rates are as low as they have ever been historically. The slight increase is to attempt to manage inflation to a 2% level. That is not high inflation...high inflation is the 40% they experience in Argentina.
As to 2008, as has been pointed out many, many times here and in countless articles published in financial newspapers and journals the cause of the recession was the sub-prime mortgages getting out of control and then spreading their contagion around the world through derivatives. It has been well explained.

[Sys1]

rockdoc123 : You definatally proove your stupidity by writing such nonsense in your last post, so I won't take the time to answer point by point to your logorrhoea. I don't give a shit about convincing blind people. I prefer letting them die in their poo, if they like to do so. I witnessed some poor fellow who enslaved them with debt in 2005 and who are now living quite miserably, all their life turning around on how to pay back the bank.

Nevertheless, what puzzles me is what the hell are you doing on peakoil.com... since when? 2005? Seriously?
Loosing your time on a conspiracy internet site for 13 years? Where people are crazy commies who don't get anything about subprimes and how great the economy is.

Hey, you got better to do than spending your good time with conspiracy theorists :
Take your SUV and buy some good Tesla stocks, you will become rich.

[Outcast_Searcher]

I remember he declaration quite clearly of he doesn't.

If you can't be more coherent than that, or at least look at what the hell you write before you post it OR go back and correct it, given the level of your content here over time -- if you're going to pitch rocks at people, you should smash them directly in your own face.

[rockdoc123]

Loosing your time on a conspiracy internet site for 13 years? Where people are crazy commies who don't get anything about subprimes and how great the economy is.

at one time this was a very good site for discussion and there are still some people here who want to learn more about oil and gas and it's impacts on the economy etc. There are theories and then there is reality and then there is the complete codswallop that you and Pstarr seem to want to throw around. If you want to back your opinions up with hard evidence do so, but I suggest you understand what it is you are posting.

not surprisingly when confronted with facts you resort to ad hominem attack. And not a very eloquent attack to boot.