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THE Limits to Growth Thread

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Re: THE Limits to Growth Thread

Unread postby Lore » Sat 20 Jun 2015, 20:22:56

Modern capitalism would fold like cheap lawn chair if people only purchased what they needed, style went stagnant and things were made to last from one generation to the next.
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt
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Re: THE Limits to Growth Thread

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sat 20 Jun 2015, 20:25:51

Perhaps we could say that thrift went out with the Edwardian era?

Not really, where I Currently work, we are engaged in a task of clearing out the storeroom of "stuff" that the previous manager decided was "useful!" Clearly a man after my own heart! But, we ran out of space ! So we are just throwing it all away!

Having said that, I have managed to "save" some stuff!
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Re: THE Limits to Growth Thread

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 20 Jun 2015, 21:16:55

My parents were depression era kids, they saved all kinds of stuff. Hundreds of gallon mayonnaise jars Dad saved from the dumpster. Mom had tons of newspapers from the JFK as assassination. I literally had dump truck loads of crap, and I mean crap!

Now I'm trying to move onto a boat! Oi vey!

When I worked for the railroad the old timers would save all kinds of stuff, actually hide it. During the Pennsylvania bankruptcy they LITERALLY sold the brass arms and numbers from the clocks in the Philadelphia 30th street station. So the men saved all kinds of stuff, hid it under piles of junk. We had a car drive into a storeroom, and it hit an entire switch machine buried under old rope and such. Reading guys were the same, they hid hundreds of relays under the floor of a warehouse in Norristown.

But hell, those were tough times. In Philly we had no heat in the headquarters building. So it was common practice for men to pick up tie stubs and burn them in makeshift stoves, for heat. SEPTA and ?Amtrak were using magneto phones, you may have seen them, hand crank party lines, up into the 90's, I have gone to antique/collector places to find sure parts. Mid 1980's into the 90's.
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Re: THE Limits to Growth Thread

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 21 Jun 2015, 16:31:38

Newfie wrote:
Graeme wrote:UK Government-backed scientific model flags risk of civilisation’s collapse by 2040

The model does not account for the reality that people will react to escalating crises by changing behavior and policies.


medium


"Reality", what reality? It can't be a reality if it's still lol in the future. It's a POTENTIAL, perhaps likely, or perhaps unlikely.

F'ing people can't think critically anymore.


Come on Newfie. You're playing semantics games. The reality quoted is about the nature of people -- i.e. how they react, and simply extrapolating that CURRENT reality into predicted future behavior.

Playing semantics games isn't a valid condemnation of critical thinking. (It is, of course, sophistry). If you disagree with the assertion, how about a real argument?

For example, here's one -- given how slow societies are to do anything about serious planetary issues like AGW and pollution, expect future policy changes to be glacial (and therefore FAR too slow) until it is far too late.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Limits to Growth Thread

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 21 Jun 2015, 16:36:22

Lore wrote:Modern capitalism would fold like cheap lawn chair if people only purchased what they needed, style went stagnant and things were made to last from one generation to the next.

If people only obtained and used what they needed, then people (especially in the first world) would have a FAR lower material standard of living. Under ANY system.

Or do you think being socialists or whatever economic system the far left prefers would magically make us all frugal and rich at the same time?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Limits to Growth Thread

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 21 Jun 2015, 22:46:00

Outcast,

I disagree, I think the word "reality" in the above context is very important.

"The model does not account for the reality that people will react...." Used in this context it make a (unsupported) supposition that people WILL react, and it implies they will act in a positive way. It treats the future as a known fact e.g., "of course people will do the right thing."

By doing so it implies that the projections Of their own work are not really serious, they don't reflect a potential reality, because the reality is people will change.

This is hardly calm,dispassionate analysis of the data.

Also, and importantly, especially since we are on the topic of LTG, is that the CURRENT REALITY is we are taking a BAU approach, in short if we extrapolate the CURRENT REALITY (BAU) then we are UNLIKELY to react. Quite the opposite of what that sentence predicts.

It is also dismissive of considering what changes should be contemplated, no need to, because the "reality" is bad things won't happen.

I often am sloppy with words myself, it gets me into trouble. So, guilty as charged, no superiour attitude. This incident just caught the wrong way and I reacted strongly. Still, I feel my position correct, if not politically correct.

Sometimes words really do matter.
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Re: THE Limits to Growth Thread

Unread postby ralfy » Sun 19 Aug 2018, 09:04:03

Dennis Meadows Interview, 2017.

Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

Part 4
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Re: THE Limits to Growth Thread

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 19 Aug 2018, 17:35:07

Wait, stop the presses, apparently the Trump Administration has discovered an infinite supply of fossil fuels. And they are nonpolluting also.

There are NO limits to growth! Who knew?

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us- ... imperative

WASHINGTON (AP) — Conserving oil is no longer an economic imperative for the U.S., the Trump administration declares in a major new policy statement that threatens to undermine decades of government campaigns for gas-thrifty cars and other conservation programs.


Does this mean the Conservative party is now the liberal party, since they denounce conservation?
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Re: THE Limits to Growth Thread

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 19 Aug 2018, 18:57:33

Well Mr Meadows is rightfully saying in Part 3, that we have already entered the collapse stage. I guess some will only concede that when a mass die off ensues. Remember, this is about the entire planet.
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Re: THE Limits to Growth Thread

Unread postby Yonnipun » Sun 19 Aug 2018, 19:17:47

onlooker wrote:Well Mr Meadows is rightfully saying in Part 3, that we have already entered the collapse stage. I guess some will only concede that when a mass die off ensues. Remember, this is about the entire planet.


I read the book last year and quite honestly I was somewhat dissapointed. I always had an impression from this book like we could possibly turn things over and have a sustainable modern civilization. This is simply not possible. Common sense, no need for Einstein level intelligence to reach to that conclusion.
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Re: THE Limits to Growth Thread

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 19 Aug 2018, 19:32:44

Yes I think we passed the point to salvage modern industrial civilization or prevent a mass die off. Basically, because of the end of cheap abundant energy, our population is too big. And the final most important reason is the environmental pillars that sustain the Economy and life itself are reaching tipping points beyond which irreversible pernicious processes will produce catastrophic harm to the Economy and much of life on Earth
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