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Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 12 Aug 2018, 07:12:15

Jawagord’s post made me think of “Boiling a Frog”

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boiling_frog

The boiling frog is a fable describing a frog being slowly boiled alive. The premise is that if a frog is put suddenly into boiling water, it will jump out, but if the frog is put in tepid water which is then brought to a boil slowly, it will not perceive the danger and will be cooked to death. The story is often used as a metaphor for the inability or unwillingness of people to react to or be aware of sinister threats that arise gradually rather than suddenly.

While some 19th-century experiments suggested that the underlying premise is true if the heating is sufficiently gradual,[1][2] according to contemporary biologists the premise is false: a frog that is gradually heated will jump out.[3][4] Indeed, thermoregulation by changing location is a fundamentally necessary survival strategy for frogs and other ectotherms.


So I guess that settles it, humans ARE stupider than frogs.

OF COURSE:
We are polluting the atmosphere
We are polluting our land
We are polluting our seas
We are extracting finite resources which will run out
We are planning for the party to carry on forever

All of this will have dire consequences wherein human population will be drastically reduced (along with much other life).

Humans are the meteor we seek to deflect in our SciFi wet dreams.

One energy should be put to solutions rather than quibbling. There are so many things we agree upon, so many opportunities for improvement. Pops sit line used to sum it up pretty nice, something like:

REDUCE, REUSE, RECYCLE
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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 12 Aug 2018, 11:55:08

The same goes for deltas like the Nile and Ganges, so long as the rivers are allowed to transport silt the altitude of the delta will increase with sea level. Delta formation is a natural function of silty water hitting calm ocean and dropping its load of soil. Sea level goes up the delta edge floods but then new silt builds the delta higher. This would happen in Mississippi except the US army built levees preventing natural forces from building the delta. Like idiots they direct the silt off the edge of the continental shelf.


sea level rise is extremely difficult to ascertain in delta areas as they are subject to a lot of subsidence. As an example, the whole Mississippi Delta area in the US has been subject to a large amount of subsidence from sediment loading as long as the Mississippi River has been there. As a consequence structure built on delta sediments subside as well, sea level gauges suggest rising sea level but in fact, it is lowering land levels that are causing the problem. The exact opposite is noted in parts of Alaska and Western Canada where the isostatic response to subduction of the Pacific plate has resulted in negative apparent sea level rise (land rising faster than the sea).
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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 12 Aug 2018, 12:09:08

I grew up with parents who survived the Great depression, so you never threw away a machine that still worked or could be repaired some time in the future. In fact when our first color TV had to go to the shop for a repair (remember electronics repair services?) my dad pulled the vacuum tube circuit B&W set out of the attic and we watched that for a couple weeks while the other set was waiting for a part from Japan to be fixed.

So for our family the rules were Retain, Reuse, Repair and when all else failed Recycle.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 12 Aug 2018, 16:16:26

Wash and reuse plastic bags? My Wife does that also.
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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby jawagord » Sun 12 Aug 2018, 16:53:09

Newfie wrote:Jawagord’s post made me think of “Boiling a Frog”

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boiling_frog

The boiling frog is a fable describing a frog being slowly boiled alive. The premise is that if a frog is put suddenly into boiling water, it will jump out, but if the frog is put in tepid water which is then brought to a boil slowly, it will not perceive the danger and will be cooked to death. The story is often used as a metaphor for the inability or unwillingness of people to react to or be aware of sinister threats that arise gradually rather than suddenly.

While some 19th-century experiments suggested that the underlying premise is true if the heating is sufficiently gradual,[1][2] according to contemporary biologists the premise is false: a frog that is gradually heated will jump out.[3][4] Indeed, thermoregulation by changing location is a fundamentally necessary survival strategy for frogs and other ectotherms.


REDUCE, REUSE, RECYCLE


And your post reminded me of a grade school lesson learned long ago:

A false analogy is a logical fallacy that occurs when someone applies facts from one situation to another situation but the situations are substantially different and the same conclusions cannot logically be drawn.

Sometimes these differences are outright ignored by the person presenting the fallacy; other times, they may not be aware of the differences.


I have no quibble with REDUCE, REUSE, RECYCLE
Don't deny the peak!
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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 12 Aug 2018, 18:27:56

jawagord wrote:
Newfie wrote:Jawagord’s post made me think of “Boiling a Frog”

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boiling_frog

The boiling frog is a fable describing a frog being slowly boiled alive. The premise is that if a frog is put suddenly into boiling water, it will jump out, but if the frog is put in tepid water which is then brought to a boil slowly, it will not perceive the danger and will be cooked to death. The story is often used as a metaphor for the inability or unwillingness of people to react to or be aware of sinister threats that arise gradually rather than suddenly.

While some 19th-century experiments suggested that the underlying premise is true if the heating is sufficiently gradual,[1][2] according to contemporary biologists the premise is false: a frog that is gradually heated will jump out.[3][4] Indeed, thermoregulation by changing location is a fundamentally necessary survival strategy for frogs and other ectotherms.


REDUCE, REUSE, RECYCLE


And your post reminded me of a grade school lesson learned long ago:

A false analogy is a logical fallacy that occurs when someone applies facts from one situation to another situation but the situations are substantially different and the same conclusions cannot logically be drawn.

Sometimes these differences are outright ignored by the person presenting the fallacy; other times, they may not be aware of the differences.


I have no quibble with REDUCE, REUSE, RECYCLE


Analogies only work if you look at both things side by side

Jawagord wrote:
And I think we've all seen there is no shortage of fossil fuels if we want to keep using them. So the only doom I see is the self fulfilling kind where the Gore's and Obama's of the world push us into a green energy economic collapse.


“No shortage of fossil fuels if we want to keep using them.” Really? As if they are an infinite resource. Do you not notice that the fuels we use are more and harder to extract? It may not appear so at the pump, but at the well head it does. So your perception is faulty if all you look at is your personal effort, not that the resource is depleting.

Now I suspect you may be honest in not being concerned with an economic collapse. No matter how honest and sincere your conviction it is at odds with all of history, where every previous major economic system has collapsed. How do I know? Because the once did exists and they now do not exist.

Your investments and 401 may be doing well, as they did in 2006. They may do well for some time in the future. But at some point the situation will change. Unless you find a way to readjust your portfolio and learn to think more in terms of advanced planning you will likely be in for a financial shock.

There is no perpetual motion machine.

It’s good we find some common ground on REDUCE,DEUSE, RECYCLE
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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 12 Aug 2018, 20:06:39

Jaw, you may be on the wrong site. Because here, people absolutely believe and know that Peak Oil is a clear and present danger even if we do not fully agree on the exact timetable or full severity of the consequences. And as for FF being still in abundance , well better hope that is not true because we will be setting in motion a Climate Armageddon perhaps worse than any ever seen on Earth.
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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 14 Aug 2018, 02:51:18

(dftt)

On climate change, it’s time to start panicking

The crisis over global warming warrants an unparalleled response


https://www.salon.com/2018/08/05/on-cli ... panicking/
It is time for us to panic about global warming.

Indeed, a proper state of panic is long overdue.

... If we do not resolve the problem of man-made climate change, it could quite literally spell the end of human civilization.

"There will be and already is major consequences and they grow over time. It does not look good," Kevin Trenberth, a a Distinguished Senior Scientist in the Climate Analysis Section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research at the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, told Salon by email. "The effects are always local but there are more and more of them and the consequences are major. These includes floods and drought, heat waves and wild fires." He also pointed Salon in the direction of a paper he co-authored that elaborated on how Hurricane Harvey in particular could be linked to climate change.

Indeed, the California wildfires that ravaged America's most populous state last month provide a major example of the dangers of man-made climate change discussed by Trenberth. A number of scientists have come out to argue that the devastating blazes were at the very least exacerbated by climate change, according to the San Francisco Chronicle. As Jennifer Francis, a professor at Rutgers University who studies atmospheric circulation, told the newspaper regarding the searing heat wave and weaker wind patterns, "We’re seeing this mix of conditions across North America and Europe, but they’re all connected. The weather patterns are just stuck. They’re trapped."
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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby vox_mundi » Tue 14 Aug 2018, 10:53:14

Land Transitioned From Green To Brown In a Matter of Months

Dramatic satellite images of Europe show how this summer's heatwave scorched entire countries

Image
European Space Agency satellite images show how drastically the heat has altered the earth's surface in just a month.

Image
Denmark, Sweden and Germany all saw similar changes over the same period

Grasslands up to 37% Less Green than Normal


Tropics Face Massive Rise In Heatwave Deaths

Image

Unless tropical countries adapt to warmer temperatures caused by climate change, they are bound to see more heatwave-related deaths, with Brazil, Colombia and the Philippines predicted to have close to 2,000 per cent increase in excess mortality by mid-century, says a new study.

Heatwaves have already been deadly this century, claiming thousands of lives. The 2003 European heatwave led to the deaths of 35,000 people while the 2010 Russian heatwave killed an unprecedented 55,736 people. In 2015, an estimated 5,000 people died from heatwaves in India and Pakistan. And in recent weeks, heat waves are sweeping through the northern hemisphere, killing dozens of people mostly in Japan and Canada.


We're Going to Die in Record Numbers as Heatwaves Bake The World, First Global Study Shows

Image


Halfway to Boiling: The City at 50C

It is the temperature at which human cells start to cook, animals suffer and air conditioners overload power grids. Once an urban anomaly, 50C is fast becoming reality

Imagine acity at 50C (122F). The pavements are empty, the parks quiet, entire neighbourhoods appear uninhabited. Nobody with a choice ventures outside during daylight hours. Only at night do the denizens emerge, HG Wells-style, into the streets – though, in temperatures that high, even darkness no longer provides relief. Uncooled air is treated like effluent: to be flushed as quickly as possible.

School playgrounds are silent as pupils shelter inside. In the hottest hours of the day, working outdoors is banned. The only people in sight are those who do not have access to air conditioning, who have no escape from the blanket of heat: the poor, the homeless, undocumented labourers. Society is divided into the cool haves and the hot have-nots.

Those without the option of sheltering indoors can rely only on shade, or perhaps a water-soaked sheet hung in front of a fan. Construction workers, motor-rickshaw drivers and street hawkers cover up head to toe to stay cool. The wealthy, meanwhile, go from one climate-conditioned environment to another: homes, cars, offices, gymnasiums, malls.

Asphalt heats up 10-20C higher than the air. You really could fry an egg on the pavement. A dog’s paws would blister on a short walk, so pets are kept behind closed doors. There are fewer animals overall; many species of mammals and birds have migrated to cooler environments, perhaps at a higher altitude – or perished. Reptiles, unable to regulate their body temperatures or dramatically expand their range, are worst placed to adapt. Even insects suffer.

At 50C – halfway to water’s boiling point and more than 10C above a healthy body temperature – heat becomes toxic. Human cells start to cook, blood thickens, muscles lock around the lungs and the brain is choked of oxygen. In dry conditions, sweat – the body’s in-built cooling system – can lessen the impact. But this protection weakens if there is already moisture in the air.

Not long ago, 50C was considered an anomaly, but it is increasingly widespread. Now, several cities in the Gulf are getting increasingly accustomed to such heat. Basra – population 2.1 million – registered 53.9C two years ago. Kuwait City and Doha have experienced 50C or more in the past decade. At Quriyat, on the coast of Oman, overnight temperatures earlier this summer remained above 42.6C, which is believed to be the highest “low” temperature ever recorded in the world.
... “We must hope that we don’t see 50C. That would be uncharted territory. Infrastructure would be crippled and ecosystem services would start to break down, with long-term consequences.”

Even under the most optimistic predictions for emissions reductions, experts say almost half the world’s population will be exposed to potentially deadly heat for 20 days a year by 2100.


2017 One of Three Warmest Years On Record, International Report Confirms – Greenhouse Gas Concentrations, Sea Level Reach All-Time Highs

... Notable findings from the international report include:

- Levels of greenhouse gases were the highest on record. Major greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere -- including carbon dioxide (CO2), methane and nitrous oxide --reached a new record highs. The 2017 average global CO2 concentration was 405.0 parts per million, the highest measured in the modern 38-year global record and in ice-core records dating back as far as 800,000 years.
- Sea level rise hit a new high -- about 3.0 inches (7.7 cm) higher than the 1993 average. Global sea level is rising at an average rate of 1.2 inches (3.1 cm) per decade.
- Heat in the upper ocean hit a record high, reflecting the continued accumulation of thermal energy in the uppermost 2,300 feet of the global oceans.
- Global land and ocean combined surface temperature reached a near-record high. Depending on the dataset, average global surface temperatures were 0.68-0.86°F (0.38-0.48°C) above the 1981-2010 average. This marks 2017 as having the second, or third, warmest annual global temperature since records began in the mid- to late 1800s.
- Sea surface temperatures hit a near-record high. While the global average sea surface temperature (SST) in 2017 was slightly below the 2016 value, the long-term trend remained upward.
- Drought dipped and then rebounded. The global area of drought fell sharply in early 2017 before rising to above-average values later in the year.
- Arctic maximum sea ice coverage fell to a record low. The 2017 maximum extent (coverage) of Arctic sea ice was the lowest in the 38-year record. The September 2017 sea-ice minimum was the eighth lowest on record, 25 percent smaller than the long-term average.
- The Antarctic also saw record-low sea ice coverage, which remained well below the 1981-2010 average. On March 1, 2017, the sea ice extent fell to 811,000 square miles (2.1 million square kilometers), the lowest observed daily value in the continuous satellite record that began in 1978.
- Unprecedented multiyear coral reef bleaching continued: A global coral bleaching event spanned from June 2014 through May 2017, resulting in unprecedented impacts on reefs. More than 95 percent of coral in some affected reef areas died.
-The total number of tropical cyclones were slightly above average overall. There were 85 named tropical cyclones in 2017, slightly above the 1981-2010 average of 82 storms.
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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby vox_mundi » Tue 14 Aug 2018, 12:32:48

2018-2022 Expected To Be Abnormally Hot Years

Image

This summer's worldwide heatwave makes 2018 a particularly hot year. And the next few years will be similar, according to a study led by Florian Sévellec, a CNRS researcher at the Laboratory for Ocean Physics and Remote Sensing (LOPS) (CNRS/IFREMER/IRD/University of Brest) and at the University of Southampton, and published in the 14 August 2018 edition of Nature Communications. Using a new method, the study shows that at the global level, 2018-2022 may be an even hotter period than expected based on current global warming.

... The new method predicts that mean air temperature may be abnormally high in 2018-2022—higher than figures inferred from anthropogenic global warming alone. In particular, this is due to a low probability of intense cold events. The phenomenon is even more salient with respect to sea surface temperatures, due to a high probability of heat events, which, in the presence of certain conditions, can cause an increase in tropical storm activity.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-05442-8


Diving Robots Find Antarctic Winter Seas Exhale Surprising Amounts of Carbon Dioxide

A new study from the University of Washington, the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, Princeton University and several other oceanographic institutions uses data gathered by the floating drones over past winters to learn how much carbon dioxide is transferred by the surrounding seas. Results show that in winter the open water nearest the sea ice surrounding Antarctica releases significantly more carbon dioxide than previously believed.
"These results came as a really big surprise, because previous studies found that the Southern Ocean was absorbing a lot of carbon dioxide," said . "If that's not true, as these data suggest, then it means we need to rethink the Southern Ocean's role in the carbon cycle and in the climate."

- lead author Alison Gray - UW Assistant Professor of Oceanography

The paper is published Aug. 14 in Geophysical Research Letters.

Looking at circles of increasing distance from the South Pole, the authors find that in winter the open water next to the sea-ice covered waters around Antarctica is releasing significantly more carbon dioxide than expected to the atmosphere.

"It's not surprising that the water in this region is outgassing, because the deep water is exceptionally rich in carbon," Gray said. "But we underestimated the magnitude of the outgassing because we had so little data from the winter months. That means the Southern Ocean isn't absorbing as much carbon as we thought."

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com ... 18GL078013
Last edited by vox_mundi on Tue 14 Aug 2018, 13:44:48, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 14 Aug 2018, 13:04:53

As spring temperatures in the UK inched above 20C in recent weeks, air conditioners in offices across the country will have rumbled into life after a silent winter.
But while these machines cool our buildings and cars, they could be having an increasing warming effect on the planet, a new study says

Hydrofluorocarbon emissions up 54% with air conditioning on the rise

https://www.carbonbrief.org/hydrofluoro ... n-the-rise
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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby vox_mundi » Tue 14 Aug 2018, 13:37:56

onlooker wrote:
As spring temperatures in the UK inched above 20C in recent weeks, air conditioners in offices across the country will have rumbled into life after a silent winter.
But while these machines cool our buildings and cars, they could be having an increasing warming effect on the planet, a new study says

Hydrofluorocarbon emissions up 54% with air conditioning on the rise

https://www.carbonbrief.org/hydrofluoro ... n-the-rise

Natural Refrigerant Replacements Reduce Energy Costs and Conserve the Environment

Recently, a team of Iranian researchers investigated how natural refrigerants could replace CFCs, HCFCs and HFCs in geothermal heat pumps to reduce energy consumption and operating costs. They report their findings in the Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy.

Based on their modeling, the researchers determined that natural materials, including ammonia and n-butane, are the most economical and environmentally friendly replacement refrigerants for geothermal heat pumps.

In their review, the researchers ran an Hour Analysis Program to calculate the heating and cooling loads in a 14-story, residential building. Then, they applied their findings to an Engineering Equation Solver to model the thermodynamic cycle of an open and closed loop ground source heat pump with different known refrigerants.

"The big challenge for the coming years in the HVAC and refrigeration industry is to establish natural refrigerant technology to substitute CFCs, HCFCs and HFCs refrigerants," said Mostafa Mafi, one of the authors on the paper. "A solution to reduce energy consumption in heat pumps is using the earth as a renewable heat source/sink to both increase efficiency and create a diversity of energy sources."

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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 14 Aug 2018, 17:50:29

In 2016 a new UN Treaty was signed to ban hydrofluorocarbons.

On 15 October 2016, due to these chemicals' contribution to climate change, negotiators from 197 nations meeting at the summit of the United Nations Environment Programme in Kigali, Rwanda reached a legally-binding accord to phase out hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) in an amendment to the Montreal Protocol.[5][6][7]

Note that unlike the phony Paris Accords, the agreement to stop the use of hydrofluorocarbons is legally binding.

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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby vox_mundi » Wed 15 Aug 2018, 12:06:35

This Problem is not limited to "Europe".

Wood Density of European Trees Decreasing Continuously Since 1870

Image

Trees are growing more rapidly due to climate change. This may sound like good news—after all, this means that trees are storing more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere in their wood, and hence modulating a key ingredient in global warming. But is it that simple?

A team from the Technical University of Munich (TUM) analyzed wood samples from the oldest existing experimental areas spanning a period of 150 years, and reached a surprising conclusion.


With the combination of wood samples from the 1870s to the present day coupled with the latest measurement technology, the team at the School of Life Sciences Weihenstephan were able to demonstrate that the annually growing wood has gradually become lighter since observations began by up to 8 to 12 percent since 1900. Within the same period, the volume growth of the trees in central Europe has accelerated by 29 to 100 percent.

In other words, even though a greater volume of wood is being produced today, it now contains less material than just a few decades ago. "Some people might now surmise that the more rapid growth could itself be the cause for our observations," says Dr. Peter Biber, co-author of the study—"In some tree species, it is, in fact, the case that wider annual rings also tend to have lighter wood. But we have taken this effect into account. The decrease in wood density we are talking about is due to other factors."

Instead, Pretzsch and his team see the causes as being the long-term increase in temperature due to climate change and the resulting lengthening of the vegetation period. But the nitrogen input from agriculture, traffic and industry also play a part. A number of details lead experts to support this, such as the decrease in the density of late wood and the increase in the percentage of early wood in the annual rings.

Lighter wood is less solid and it has a lower calorific value. This is crucial for numerous application scenarios ranging from wood construction to energy production. Less solid wood in living trees also increases the risk of damage events such as breakage due to wind and snow in forests.

But the most important finding for practical and political aspects is that the current climate-relevant carbon sequestration of the forests is being overestimated as long as it is calculated with established but outdated wood densities. "The accelerated growth is still resulting in surplus carbon sequestration," says Pretzsch. "But scaling up for the forests of central Europe, the traditional estimate would be too high by about 10 million metric tons of carbon per year."

Full Text: Hans Pretzsch et al, Wood density reduced while wood volume growth accelerated in Central European forests since 1870, Forest Ecology and Management (2018).

Conclusion: The results indicate that current increased wood volume growth rates must not be straightforwardly converted into sequestrated C and biomass harvest potentials assuming historic values for wood density. This should be taken into account in monitoring, modeling, and utilization of carbon and biomass in forests under global change.


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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 15 Aug 2018, 12:22:53

vox_mundi wrote: the most important finding for practical and political aspects is that the current climate-relevant carbon sequestration of the forests is being overestimated as long as it is calculated with established but outdated wood densities. "The accelerated growth is still resulting in surplus carbon sequestration," says Pretzsch. "But scaling up for the forests of central Europe, the traditional estimate would be too high by about 10 million metric tons of carbon per year."[/b]


Very interesting paper, Vox. THANKS!

The whole idea of carbon sequestration in forests is is over hyped because all trees eventually die and decompose and the CO2 is released back into the atmosphere. There is some temporary storage, yes, but its not anything useful for permanent removal and sequestration of CO2 from the atmosphere.

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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby GHung » Wed 15 Aug 2018, 12:37:49

Plantagenet wrote:
vox_mundi wrote: the most important finding for practical and political aspects is that the current climate-relevant carbon sequestration of the forests is being overestimated as long as it is calculated with established but outdated wood densities. "The accelerated growth is still resulting in surplus carbon sequestration," says Pretzsch. "But scaling up for the forests of central Europe, the traditional estimate would be too high by about 10 million metric tons of carbon per year."[/b]


Very interesting paper, Vox. THANKS!

The whole idea of carbon sequestration in forests is is over hyped because all trees eventually die and decompose and the CO2 is released back into the atmosphere. There is some temporary storage, yes, but its not anything useful for permanent removal and sequestration of CO2 from the atmosphere.

Cheers!


Gosh. Maybe they need to use coal trains to return billions of tons of biomass to coal mines to be buried for a few million years.If they can move mountains to get the coal, they can move them back to sequester new carbon. .....

..... or maybe we just need to stop burning stuff....
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 15 Aug 2018, 13:01:53

Plant,
Not 100% true, a certain amount remains captured in the soil. That’s how we got coal and oil in the first place. I can’t say what percentage. Probably varies a lot. Pretty sure it’s somewhere betwe n. 0% and 100%. ;)
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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby vox_mundi » Wed 15 Aug 2018, 13:04:28

Here in the North it means more tree and infrastructure damage after extreme weather events. This will only get worse as CO2 levels rise.

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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby vox_mundi » Wed 15 Aug 2018, 15:39:37

U.S. $23 Trillion Will Be Lost If Temperatures Rise Four Degrees By 2100

Economists have largely underestimated the global economic damages from climate change, partly as a result of averaging these effects across countries and regions, but also because the likely behavior of producers and consumers in a climate change future isn't usually taken into consideration in climate modelling.
Imagine something similar to the Great Depression of 1929 hitting the world, but this time it never ends. Economic modelling suggests this is the reality facing us if we continue emitting greenhouse gases and allowing temperatures to rise unabated.

... This is the first large dimensional model that captures damages for each country from climate change, allowing for a measure of extremes, without averaging, along with forward-looking behaviour.

It is a conservative model, in that it only accounts for some of the impacts of climate change – loss in agricultural productivity, sea level changes, human health and productivity effects. It doesn't account for losses from extreme weather events or the increased frequency of fire damage.

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Poor countries are likely to be the hardest hit economically by climate change.

We examine both the 4 degrees Celsius and 3 degrees Celsius scenarios, compared to the 2 degrees Celsius case.

The estimated damages from not complying with the Paris Accord are severe. At 4 degrees Celsius of global warming, for example, the losses in income to the global economy are over US$23 trillion per year, or the equivalent in economic damage of three or four 2008 Global Financial Crises each year.


Losses, for example, at 4 degrees Celsius, for Cambodia, Sri Lanka, and Nicaragua are over 17 per cent, for Indonesia 19 per cent, for India 14 per cent, Thailand 17 per cent, Singapore 16 per cent, and the Philippines 20 per cent. For much of Africa the losses range from 18 to over 26 per cent of GDP.

These results emphasise the equity problem that goes with these effects – many countries that are major per capita greenhouse gas emitters are the ones less impacted by climate change.

Global losses of this size are comparable to the Great Depression of the 1930s, with its global fall in GDP of 15 per cent, except these will occur year after year, with no way for effective redress.

Many governments around the global won't be able to cope and will, to put it simply, fail.

Without significant weather effects included in the modelling, and at 4 degrees Celsius global warming, damages per person in Australia are projected to be US$4,886, or roughly US$13,945 per household, per year, every year.
We are now extending this work to account for increases in the frequency and severity of weather events induced by climate change.

Early results for the effects of tropical storms alone indicate that global economic damages increase significantly, at all temperature ranges, and more than double the more than US$23trillion in global economic damages at 4 degrees Celsius found in the current paper.

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https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com ... 18EF000922
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late.
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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby dissident » Wed 15 Aug 2018, 23:27:53

But W. Bush claimed that addressing climate change would cost $400 billion. Too expensive, he said. The moron and many like him didn't think hard enough. An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.
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