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Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 15

Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby kublikhan » Sat 11 Aug 2018, 00:20:51

pstarr wrote:Your claims that plants discharge more co2 then they absorb is impossible. Plants are made out of co2.
Once again, you are confused pstarr. I made no such claim. My claims was: plants/soil discharges more co2 in warm weather than they do in cooler weather. However in both cases, they are a net carbon sink.

pstarr wrote:As for the ratio of new plant growth/co2 emissions; I will restate it again for you: the recent addition of cellulose in new vegetation dwarfs by many orders of magnitude the co2 released via the combustion of old fossil cellulose, ie fossil fuels.
Substantiate this statement.
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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby kublikhan » Sat 11 Aug 2018, 01:12:43

pstarr wrote:Yes, plants are a net carbon sink. And yes, said sink has increased as a consequence of increased co2 regardless of increases in temperature. In fact the greatest plant growth additions have been in the hottest driest regions, ie deserts.
And yet that increased carbon sink is smaller than the increased co2 emissions.

pstarr wrote:Those more familiar with petroleum geology appreciate just how rare have been instances of petroleum/coal creation over the millennia. It is not for me to instruct you in these matters.


Cumulative Carbon Emissions
The cumulative carbon emissions are the sum of the total CO2 emitted during a given period of time. Total cumulative emissions from 1870 to 2016 were 420±20 GtC (1539 GtCO2) from fossil fuels and industry, and 180±60 GtC (660 GtCO2) from land use change. The total of 600±65 GtC was partitioned among the atmosphere (245±5 GtC), ocean (145±20 GtC), and the land (190±45 GtC). Land-use change represents about 31% of cumulative emissions over 1870–2016, coal 32%, oil 25%, gas 10%, and others 3%.
Global Carbon Budget

Overall in 30 years, the green vegetation on planet Earth had increased by a rather extraordinary 14 per cent.
The world is getting greener. Why does no one want to know?

So cumulative emissions were 600 Gt of carbon, or 2200 Gt co2. Of that, the total amount the land sequestered was 190 Gt of carbon, or 697 Gt co2. However only 14% of that was new vegetation. So 697 * .14 = 98 GT. 98 Gt of co2 sequestered by new vegetation vs 2200 Gt of co2 emissions. Seems like you are in error pstarr.
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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby Pops » Sat 11 Aug 2018, 10:54:25

pstarr wrote:Pictures of a greening planet.

Somehow pictures of a tropically green Fairbanks aren't comforting, lol

The empirical evidence is a picture. OK, I grant the picture is greener.

Did any of these studies look at other possible causes? Increased fertilizer use? industrial ag? N runoff? Urban migration? Increasing forest preserves? Ag Irrigation?
30 years is a long time, lots of stuff happened.

CO2 is not the only nutrient. If it has been the limiting factor until now, and that limit is raised, eventually there will be another limit hit, P, Ph, some micro nutrient in specific regions. Don't forget water.

My last thought on the green picture is that a pasture is just as green from space as a mature forest. I don't know the number but lots of S American forests have been cut and replaced with pasture.

I was never a climate doomer so I'm not arguing for doom, just playing the skeptic.
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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby dissident » Sat 11 Aug 2018, 11:13:08

A climate doomer would be a species of climate denier: an individual not qualified in the field who is suffering from the Dunning-Kruger syndrome. Lots of unqualified individuals love to categorize people who are more qualified than they are as either "doomers" or "deniers". Whatever serves to reinforce their own delusional framework of reality.

The hothouse Earth we should be worried about the is the 35C and 100% RH regime. We do not need Venus like conditions to cover sizeable regions of the planet with such weather for parts of the year. We can expect, based on current state of the science, that such lethal for mammals conditions will become a serious problem after 2050.

As for CO2 greening: why is that such a great thing? Clearly the added vegetation is not offsetting the annual CO2 increase and is not even producing a visible impact. By contrast, the added vegetation is lowering surface albedo which directly contributes to warming.
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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby Pops » Sat 11 Aug 2018, 11:24:02

Well that settles it, peak oil it is!
:-D
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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby vox_mundi » Sat 11 Aug 2018, 11:24:57

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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 11 Aug 2018, 11:48:55

Pops wrote:My last thought on the green picture is that a pasture is just as green from space as a mature forest. I don't know the number but lots of S American forests have been cut and replaced with pasture.


Actually not the case. Way back in the 1970's NASA astronauts on Skylab did a series of experiments to let them design settings for the LandSat series instruments. When the computer looks at an image from LandSat instruments they can tell you exactly what type of green stuff is growing in any particular spot from soybeans to sweet corn to grazing grass to evergreen trees. The way the light reflects off the leaf surface and the types of chlorophyll variations from species to species can give you pretty precise information on what is growing where.
Landsat forest cover vs ag land
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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby dissident » Sat 11 Aug 2018, 11:57:49

BTW, here is a nice fact. CO2 greening is very selective to species. One cannot run around claiming that crops are all benefiting from CO2 increases. But certain species, namely ragweed, are responding nicely to CO2 increases. They are growing bigger and releasing more pollen.

https://www.ars.usda.gov/ARSUserFiles/8 ... pollen.pdf

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4221106/
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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby Pops » Sat 11 Aug 2018, 12:11:37

Tanada wrote:
Pops wrote:My last thought on the green picture is that a pasture is just as green from space as a mature forest. I don't know the number but lots of S American forests have been cut and replaced with pasture.


Actually not the case.

Now why didn't P come up with that? They've been measuring the "crop" in his area for years. LOL
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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 11 Aug 2018, 12:37:31

I am not sure we have discussed enough what stands to be a significant factor in CC and that is:

But greenhouses gases like CO2 are so named for their ability to magnify the sun’s energy, and 50 million years ago the sun wasn’t as hot— our star is getting hotter with age


https://www.popsci.com/carbon-emissions-warming
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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby kublikhan » Sat 11 Aug 2018, 13:49:10

pstarr wrote:It's an interesting article. Talks about how Ridley was villified as the NASA data was initially being analyzed. Now that it is in Nature magazine (out for two years now) and peer reviewed there is little to dispute. The planet is greener and healthier because of additional CO2.
Greener yes. And healthier than models were predicting. But not healthier because of the additional co2. It's like we only have stage 2 cancer instead of stage 3. But we are still not healthy. The greening itself can increase the heat retention of the planet. Slightly slower increase via the greenhouse effect and slightly higher increase via direct radiation. And that stored carbon does not just disappear. As human activities continue to trash the ecosphere, all of that stored carbon will be released someday. In addition to any co2 we are already pumping out at that time. It is slowing down atmospheric accumulation of co2 for now. But later on the problem will be worse.

And that only scratches the surface of the changes higher co2 levels and global warming are doing to our planet. Melting ice caps, ocean acidification, rising sea levels, etc. This is not a situation I would describe as healthy.

Also, not all recent climate info is good. There has also been recent studies that point to things being worse than we thought. Such as this one:
Plants release up to 30 per cent more CO2 than previously thought

If the planet is 14% greener, but plants are 30% poorer carbon sinks than we thought, that puts these two pieces of news as a net loss as far as carbon sinks go.
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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby Pops » Sat 11 Aug 2018, 14:19:37

Yeah, it's probably as good for the idea we should be doing something about emissions, as LTO is for the idea we should be doing something about alternatives.
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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby kublikhan » Sat 11 Aug 2018, 15:02:48

pstarr wrote:Then what? You must have an explanation for the greening planet? Please share.
You misunderstand. I agree with you that the additional greening is largely because of the increased co2. The point I differ on is that the increased co2 lead to a healthier planet. Yes we have more green, that part is good. But our oceans are are also acidifying because of the increased co2. That is not healthy. Our sea levels are rising. That is not good. We are seeing increasingly extreme weather, violent storms, droughts, etc. That is not good. Do you understand what I am saying? More green is only one of many effects that higher co2 levels have caused to the planet. And the other effects are far from what I would call healthy.
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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 11 Aug 2018, 15:43:06

Sorry to say Pstarr, some nasty consequences to higher CO2 levels and greater warming are very much real especially the scenario of warming oceans interfering with ocean circulation which then can create anoxic ocean conditions which then can induce the creation of high levels of hydrogen sulfide that is a very
lethal gas/chemical to life. These links can help connect the dots

https://robertscribbler.com/2014/01/21/ ... ng-oceans/
 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anoxic_event
 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/GB002i002p00115
 https://e360.yale.edu/features/will_climate_change_jam_the_global_ocean_conveyor_belt
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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 11 Aug 2018, 16:13:48

Quite correct that human and animal waste and also fertilzer runoff contribute to algae blooms which then create anoxic ocean conditions. That dranatizes how bad overpopulation is now and our over reliance on a polluting energy source that is steadily changing the chemical composition of our planet's Biosphere
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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby kublikhan » Sat 11 Aug 2018, 16:18:05

pstarr wrote:I see. So real greening deserts, actual greater agriculture output and healthier forests don't count? Not when you can beat the drum for theoretical acid oceans, potentially failing fishing industries and higher sea levels. And killer hurricanes.

What a drag to be you. Oh, and by the way . . . the Great Killer California Drought is over. And the forest fires are a consequence of bad logging. This is tiring.
I did not say they don't count. Of course they count. One in the win column. Hurray! However, there is also a growing list of items in the loss column as well.

Ocean acidification is hardly theoretical. It is happening right now:
Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, the pH of surface ocean waters has fallen by 0.1 pH units. Since the pH scale, like the Richter scale, is logarithmic, this change represents approximately a 30 percent increase in acidity (see our pH primer web page for more information).
What is Ocean Acidification?

And there is nothing theoretical about sea level rise. It is here now:
* Miami and Miami Beach already struggle with serious flooding related to sea-level rise — even when there is no rain.
* The ground under the cities of South Florida is largely porous limestone, which means water will eventually rise up through it.
* The cities are taking flood-control measures like installing pumps, raising roads, and restoring wetlands.
* Coastal cities around the world face similar problems.

Beyond the damage to homes, roads, or other infrastructure, the flooding also threatens drinking water and plant life. Ultimately, of course, it means large parts of the city could become permanently uninhabitable.

Water is coming for Miami from all sides
You can break the major water challenges that the region is facing into three parts, or “whammies.”

The first is sea-level rise. Because of ocean currents and Miami's location, sea levels are rising in and around the city and Miami Beach faster than in most of the world.

The second problem facing South Florida is a vexing geological one. “Our underlying geology is like Swiss cheese.” The solid ground under South Florida — Miami, Miami Beach, the Keys, and much of the rest of the peninsula — is mostly limestone made of compressed ancient reefs that are full of tiny holes. That means salty water is rising up through the ground itself, not just in the waters surrounding Florida. The water could start intruding on drinking-water reservoirs (it already has in some areas) and killing off non-salt-tolerant vegetation, including shade-providing palm trees. It’s impossible to wall South Florida’s water out with levees or giant gates — as other cities have done — if the water rises up through the ground. When I asked one architect what the solution might be, she threw her hands up in the air.

Obeysekera said the third whammy, the effect of future storms, is still an unknown. The consequences of a warmer world on hurricane season are uncertain, but many scientists agree that we can expect storms to be more intense, which could mean higher storm surges and more rainfall.
Miami is racing against time to keep up with sea-level rise

Also, don't project your doom fetish onto me. Unlike you, I never spent all day fanasizing about doom. Never have, never will.

And as for weather and droughts, you appear to not know the difference between weather and climate:
Climate change affects a variety of factors associated with drought
When considering the relationship of drought to climate change, it is important to make the distinction between weather and climate. Weather is a description of atmospheric conditions over a short period of time, while climate is how the atmosphere behaves over relatively long periods of time. Individual drought periods can be understood as discrete weather events. Climate changes occur over longer periods and can be observed as changes in the patterns of weather events. For instance, as temperatures have warmed over the past century, the prevalence and duration of drought has increased in the American West.

Global climate change affects a variety of factors associated with drought. There is high confidence that increased temperatures will lead to more precipitation falling as rain rather than snow, earlier snow melt, and increased evaporation and transpiration. Thus the risk of hydrological and agricultural drought increases as temperatures rise. Much of the Mountain West has experienced declines in spring snowpack, especially since mid-century.
Causes of Drought: What's the Climate Connection?
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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 11 Aug 2018, 16:40:12

True, that AGW drastic effects MAY not affect most of us currently alive. But, it should not be a either/or argument. I am not necessarily in the camp of the fast climate doom proponents. On the other hand, saying we are not unleashing epic forces of environmental disruption related to changing of the climate is also not true. I ultimately am a doomer because, I do see the convergance of all these consequences to our Overshoot as something that can bring down all aspects of our Civilization and leave but a pathetic small remnant of humans driven back to stone age conditions.
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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby jawagord » Sat 11 Aug 2018, 22:54:08

To astronomers and odd ball NASA types Earth is a Goldilocks planet -"the late astronomer Carl Sagan’s classification of Earth as “a Goldilocks planet” — not too hot, not too cold; just right". In this view warming is dangerous as it pushes the earth towards too hot.

But for most of us non astronomers the earth is not "just right", much of it is too cold or too hot or varies from the extreme to just right due to geography and the seasons.

The earth has many climatic categories so this notion of doom for large portions of the populous due to climate change is ridiculous. There will always be huge habitable climatic areas in a warming climate, and generally warmer is better as the earth has larger land areas which are cold that will benefit from warming more than hot land areas or low land areas that will become uninhabitable.

And I think we've all seen there is no shortage of fossil fuels if we want to keep using them. So the only doom I see is the self fulfilling kind where the Gore's and Obama's of the world push us into a green energy economic collapse.

Köppen said that when observing these, all climates around the world fall into one of five major types:
* Tropical (A)
* Dry (B)
* Temperate/Mid-latitude Humid (C)
* Continental/Mid-latitude Dry (D)
* Polar (E)
Instead of having to write the full name of each climate group type, Köppen abbreviated each by a capital letter (the letters you see next to each climate category above).  

Each of these 5 climate categories can be further divided up into sub-categories based on a region's precipitation patterns and seasonal temperatures. In Köppen's scheme, these are also represented by letters (lowercase), with the second letter indicating the precipitation pattern and the third letter, the degree of summer heat or winter cold.

https://www.thoughtco.com/the-worlds-ko ... es-4109230
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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 12 Aug 2018, 00:08:59

jawagord wrote:The earth has many climatic categories so this notion of doom for large portions of the populous due to climate change is ridiculous.


Have you ever seen refugees? They often don't do very well. Well, when coastal cities and huge areas of farms on deltas are flooded as sea level rises, there are going to millions and millions of refugees. Chances are they won't do very well.

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Okay all you refugees. Get in line for your daily cup of gruel. Boston, get in line here. Manhattan line up over there. Washington DC refugees----its your turn to clean the commodes. No cleanie no foodie.

jawagord wrote:the earth has larger land areas which are cold that will benefit from warming


I dont see how warming and destroying the current environment in Arctic areas benefits anyone, especially the frozen ground is loaded with carbon and methane. As it thaws the CO2 and CH4 trapped in the Arctic will be released, kicking global warming to even hotter levels.

jawagord wrote:I think we've all seen there is no shortage of fossil fuels if we want to keep using them.


More fossil fuel use means even more CO2 and CH4 released into the atmosphere and EVEN MORE global warming.

I don't think we want more global warming---not if we're going to drown low lying parts ofcoastal cities around the world and drown low lying deltas populated by millions of farmers and burn up huge areas of California every summer.

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Re: Planet Now Heading Toward 'Hothouse Earth' State

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sun 12 Aug 2018, 06:06:59

Sea level rise at worst is a slow mtion disaster. It won't be BAU one day and Bostone flooded the next like a horror movie, such events are the realm of hollywood. The same goes for deltas like the Nile and Ganges, so long as the rivers are allowed to transport silt the altitude of the delta will increase with sea level. Delta formation is a natural function of silty water hitting calm ocean and dropping its load of soil. Sea level goes up the delta edge floods but then new silt builds the delta higher. This would happen in Mississippi except the US army built levees preventing natural forces from building the delta. Like idiots they direct the silt off the edge of the continental shelf.
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