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Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 2

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Bitcoin uses far too much energy

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 12 Jul 2018, 17:54:16

On the subject of quantum computing, for those who'd like to understand where things are and what it's really about better, here's a nice Youtube video on it at 5 different levels (child to quantum computing researcher).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OWJCfOvochA

For those who want the bottom line stuff from the researcher as far as capabilities and general timing predictions, including the danger of them breaking cryptography, you can safely start at 16:40.

For me, a layman, a video like this (beyond the child level) was helpful in getting my mind around this topic better.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Bitcoin uses far too much energy

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Fri 13 Jul 2018, 09:46:02

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from ... SD&view=1Y

Doesn't look like anything to get excited about anymore.
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Re: Bitcoin uses far too much energy

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 13 Jul 2018, 10:51:52

SeaGypsy wrote:https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=XBT&to=USD&view=1Y

Doesn't look like anything to get excited about anymore.

Yes, the bloom is certainly off the rose. I still see the occasional random tout with predictions for Bitcoin at high prices, like over $20,000 by year-end, but I feel sure they are talking their OWN book. And I keep seeing crypto exchanges hacked -- it seems like people never learn.

I still say that even if the blockchain and Crypto (of some flavor) ends up supplanting, say, credit cards, that it sure as HELL won't be Bitcoin which is the specific crypto chosen (for several reasons, including overhead) -- so once the "you can trade it for big short term profits" mantra goes away and some of the novelty wears off, I just don't get the case for owning it (or any other crypto, for that matter).

And if credit cards become passe, then using one's smart-phone with something like Apple Pay (or Android Pay or Walmart Pay, which I discovered in the following link) seems to be a growing "thing" that could handle crypto, if that became widely adopted.

I noticed that overall, users seemed to feel that convenience and security, etc. for these was roughly on par with credit cards. Maybe that doesn't change until people don't need to carry a wallet very often.

https://www.pymnts.com/apple-pay-adoption/
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Bitcoin reaches $1,000

Unread postby longpig » Sun 11 Nov 2018, 06:11:20

2013
longpig wrote:Bitcoin is stupid to invest in, you are best off buying gold. There are no real gold substitutes for money but for Bitcoin there are hundreds of near to identical types of crypto currencies. Yes Bitcoins are limited in supply but the number of other crypto currencies that are identical or similar to it can be unlimited.

The fact is when people see Bitcoins as too expensive they will move to buy other 'cheaper' crypto currencies instead. I am surprised it hasn't greatly happened yet.

Bitcoin vs Gold boils down to this. There are no real gold substitutes but there are plenty of bitcoin substitutes and the number can be unlimited.

Gold = Toilet paper limited in supply and can not be reproduced.

Bitcoin = Major brand of toilet paper that is very expensive only because people are too stupid to switch to a cheaper brand yet. Other crypto currencies are producing plenty and is only a matter of time before the market place is flooded with crypto's and they all become worthless.


:oops: :oops: :oops:

I'm still against cryptos based on my above reasoning's.
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Re: Bitcoin reaches $1,000

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 11 Nov 2018, 13:31:11

longpig wrote:2013
longpig wrote:Bitcoin is stupid to invest in, you are best off buying gold. There are no real gold substitutes for money but for Bitcoin there are hundreds of near to identical types of crypto currencies. Yes Bitcoins are limited in supply but the number of other crypto currencies that are identical or similar to it can be unlimited.

The fact is when people see Bitcoins as too expensive they will move to buy other 'cheaper' crypto currencies instead. I am surprised it hasn't greatly happened yet.

Bitcoin vs Gold boils down to this. There are no real gold substitutes but there are plenty of bitcoin substitutes and the number can be unlimited.

Gold = Toilet paper limited in supply and can not be reproduced.

Bitcoin = Major brand of toilet paper that is very expensive only because people are too stupid to switch to a cheaper brand yet. Other crypto currencies are producing plenty and is only a matter of time before the market place is flooded with crypto's and they all become worthless.


:oops: :oops: :oops:

I'm still against cryptos based on my above reasoning's.

Agreed 100% on the value of gold being largely based on its rare, compact, and nonvolatile nature. (There are imperfect substitutes, like diamonds or metals like platinum -- but they have significant downsides over time.)

This is another angle on what I've been saying all along, re cryptocurrencies. (And there are already a large "herd" of cryptos. Both legit, and (former) fraudulent ones, BTW.)

For major economies (at least), cryptocurrencies/usage WILL be monitored and regulated by the governments to ensure they can tax the population. Despite all the denial about this from some crypto advocates, it is already happening, re entities like the IRS. They're all over this, and there are lots of articles about it.

So, at some point, IF crypto vs., say, Visa etc. becomes the new standard -- WHICH crypto(s) will major governments approve? A new one (or several) that they invent? If you guess wrong, the long term value of any cryptos you invest in WILL approach zero.

Think you can confidently and accurately predict what the governments will do re crypto policy, and the timing? Given how hard it is to do meaningful tax planning in the real world, due to many unpredictable rule changes -- good luck with that.

....

I would argue that, semantics aside, we already now basically have a crypto system for modern currency, available all over the developed world. I call it the Visa/Mastercard network, enabled by modern chipped cards. If it turns out not to be secure enough, they can always improve it, just as the chips themselves were a much needed improvement. The problems of transaction cost, handling volume, reliability, etc. are already pretty much solved. You DON'T need a blockchain to do that.

But I know, don't tell a strongly bullish crypto advocate that -- since they don't want to hear it.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: New internet currency Bitcoin grows in popularity

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 11 Nov 2018, 13:37:27

Anyone noticed how relatively quiet the bitcoin (and similar cryptos) price has been in recent months? Maybe the vast majority of people have calmed down and adopted a "wait and see" attitude vs. the manic "I'm sure I'll be wealthy from cryptos real soon now?"

Not that this price history stops the self-appointed talking heads from making wild predictions.

Somehow, the phrase "buyer beware" comes to mind when I see headlines like the following. Because, like yeah, I'm so SURE this person is honest, and has NO axe to grind re his prediction. :roll: Especially given how fraud free the entire cryptocurrency saga has been. :!:

https://cointelegraph.com/news/tim-drap ... 0k-in-2022

(I'd actually sooner make a bet that the space adapted transport turtles capable of carrying a herd of (tiny -- unsure of the scale) herd of spade adapted elephants on its back are a reality in 2022 (re the picture with the article), quicker than I'll believe this price prediction. After all, gene splicing is a real scientific accomplishment, and we've seen remarkable progress in that area relative to progress in making crypto the modern currency standard (in the real world)).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 2

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 25 May 2022, 19:44:23

If you are speculating in Rat poison do any rules really matter?
Here is a clue. Of all the crypto billionaires out there, and there are several, do any of them still hold all their wealth in a crypto currency or have they sold off most of it converting it to more traditional assets like stocks and gold?
I don't have those figures. Do you? does anyone?
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sat 28 May 2022, 17:51:13

vtsnowedin wrote:If you are speculating in Rat poison do any rules really matter?
Here is a clue. Of all the crypto billionaires out there, and there are several, do any of them still hold all their wealth in a crypto currency or have they sold off most of it converting it to more traditional assets like stocks and gold?
I don't have those figures. Do you? does anyone?


No one would, since crypto is anonymous, and gold can be bought anonymously as well. Buffett made a purchase of 3500 tons of silver back in 1997, at probably the all-time low for the metal. It was a huge position as far as the available silver was concerned but so small in dollar amount that it was hidden under miscellaneous in the companies report. I don't recall ever seeing a report on when he sold it though. That's the thing with these insiders, they take huge positions and then tell the world about it and every tom dick and harry piles in and pushes the price well above the medium. Then they sell near the top, but quietly...


https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... 28443?op=1

https://silverinvesting.org/silver-as-a ... -hathaway/
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 28 May 2022, 19:09:59

Oh so the big dogs manipulate the market to milk billions out of newbies? Hard to believe, is it not?
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sat 28 May 2022, 20:42:47

vtsnowedin wrote:Oh so the big dogs manipulate the market to milk billions out of newbies? Hard to believe, is it not?


Hard to believe that they maximize their profits in this way? Buy low and sell high? I never said they manipulated the market btw, you said that. What I am saying is that they know how the market operates and take advantage of its vicissitudes. Everyone else is told to just buy and hold because the market 'always' goes up after big losses. Yes the market always does, but the individual stocks, not necessarily.

Stocks for the Long Run by Jeremy Siegel, 1994, is one the best selling books of all time.

"Even though the book has been termed "the buy and hold Bible",[4] the author occasionally concedes that there are market inefficiencies that can be exploited. "
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stocks_for_the_Long_Run
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto?

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 29 May 2022, 08:23:16

I prefer Bogle's little book of common sense investing.
https://www.target.com/p/the-little-boo ... lsrc=3p.ds
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 2

Unread postby careinke » Sun 29 May 2022, 13:04:59

vtsnowedin wrote:If you are speculating in Rat poison do any rules really matter?
Here is a clue. Of all the crypto billionaires out there, and there are several, do any of them still hold all their wealth in a crypto currency or have they sold off most of it converting it to more traditional assets like stocks and gold?
I don't have those figures. Do you? does anyone?


Michael Saylor, Elon Musk, Max Keiser, and El-Salvador have not sold any of their Bitcoin. Actually, they are buying more. There are more, lots more, including me.

Nice clue. :-D
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 2

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 29 May 2022, 22:46:27

careinke wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:If you are speculating in Rat poison do any rules really matter?
Here is a clue. Of all the crypto billionaires out there, and there are several, do any of them still hold all their wealth in a crypto currency or have they sold off most of it converting it to more traditional assets like stocks and gold?
I don't have those figures. Do you? does anyone?


Michael Saylor, Elon Musk, Max Keiser, and El-Salvador have not sold any of their Bitcoin. Actually, they are buying more. There are more, lots more, including me.

Nice clue. :-D
Peace.
Well feel free to snap up my share of the world's supply. :)
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 2

Unread postby careinke » Mon 30 May 2022, 00:40:06

I'm thinking of doing a wash sale with my Bitcoin and ETH. That's where you sell all the coins that you bought at a higher price and immediately buy them back. You can then claim the loss on your taxes, yet still end up with the BTC with a lower cost bases. I have to thank the IRS for declaring BTC and ETH an asset and not a security. :) Plus the losses can be carried forward over the years to offset future earnings.

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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 2

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 30 May 2022, 06:16:42

careinke wrote:I'm thinking of doing a wash sale with my Bitcoin and ETH. That's where you sell all the coins that you bought at a higher price and immediately buy them back. You can then claim the loss on your taxes, yet still end up with the BTC with a lower cost bases. I have to thank the IRS for declaring BTC and ETH an asset and not a security. :) Plus the losses can be carried forward over the years to offset future earnings.

Peace

Isn't the only difference being that with stocks (a security) you have to buy a different stock or wait thirty days to buy back that particular stock?
At the current trend you could sell today and wait thirty days and have saved another $10,000 per Bitcoin!
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 2

Unread postby careinke » Mon 30 May 2022, 12:37:43

vtsnowedin wrote:
careinke wrote:I'm thinking of doing a wash sale with my Bitcoin and ETH. That's where you sell all the coins that you bought at a higher price and immediately buy them back. You can then claim the loss on your taxes, yet still end up with the BTC with a lower cost bases. I have to thank the IRS for declaring BTC and ETH an asset and not a security. :) Plus the losses can be carried forward over the years to offset future earnings.

Peace

Isn't the only difference being that with stocks (a security) you have to buy a different stock or wait thirty days to buy back that particular stock?
At the current trend you could sell today and wait thirty days and have saved another $10,000 per Bitcoin!


This is true, except I don't have a reliable crystal ball to pick short term movements. Add to the fact my goal is to accumulate Bitcoin, and 30 days is a long time to wait with a volatile asset. It could just as easily rise 20K in those 30 days. Then where would I be?

There is blood in the streets, including some of mine. Best time to buy.

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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 2

Unread postby careinke » Mon 30 May 2022, 12:43:11

vtsnowedin wrote:
careinke wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:If you are speculating in Rat poison do any rules really matter?
Here is a clue. Of all the crypto billionaires out there, and there are several, do any of them still hold all their wealth in a crypto currency or have they sold off most of it converting it to more traditional assets like stocks and gold?
I don't have those figures. Do you? does anyone?


Michael Saylor, Elon Musk, Max Keiser, and El-Salvador have not sold any of their Bitcoin. Actually, they are buying more. There are more, lots more, including me.

Nice clue. :-D
Peace.
Well feel free to snap up my share of the world's supply. :)


That would be kind of hard to do, since you presently don't have a share of the worlds supply. :)

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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 2

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 30 May 2022, 13:08:38

careinke wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
careinke wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:If you are speculating in Rat poison do any rules really matter?
Here is a clue. Of all the crypto billionaires out there, and there are several, do any of them still hold all their wealth in a crypto currency or have they sold off most of it converting it to more traditional assets like stocks and gold?
I don't have those figures. Do you? does anyone?


Michael Saylor, Elon Musk, Max Keiser, and El-Salvador have not sold any of their Bitcoin. Actually, they are buying more. There are more, lots more, including me.

Nice clue. :-D
Peace.
Well feel free to snap up my share of the world's supply. :)


That would be kind of hard to do, since you presently don't have a share of the worlds supply. :)

Peace

Well you have a point there but if you wear your hoody it won't show. I did mean the share I could buy if I chose to. A fair share of the worlds supply would be the supply divided by the worlds population but it would not be fair to make me buy it.
Last edited by vtsnowedin on Mon 30 May 2022, 13:16:57, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 2

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 30 May 2022, 13:15:32

careinke wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
careinke wrote:I'm thinking of doing a wash sale with my Bitcoin and ETH. That's where you sell all the coins that you bought at a higher price and immediately buy them back. You can then claim the loss on your taxes, yet still end up with the BTC with a lower cost bases. I have to thank the IRS for declaring BTC and ETH an asset and not a security. :) Plus the losses can be carried forward over the years to offset future earnings.

Peace

Isn't the only difference being that with stocks (a security) you have to buy a different stock or wait thirty days to buy back that particular stock?
At the current trend you could sell today and wait thirty days and have saved another $10,000 per Bitcoin!


This is true, except I don't have a reliable crystal ball to pick short term movements. Add to the fact my goal is to accumulate Bitcoin, and 30 days is a long time to wait with a volatile asset. It could just as easily rise 20K in those 30 days. Then where would I be?

There is blood in the streets, including some of mine. Best time to buy.

Peace

Yes market timing is a losers game for individuals. The news you might move on is minutes or hours old before you see it and insiders or their computers have seen and acted on it in micro seconds. But still in a bearish market like presently happening you could wait with some of your money in cash until you see a bottom followed by optimism and a few days of trend upwards. No need to hit the exact bottom as any price below what you sold it for tomorrow would be a savings for you.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 2

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 09 Jun 2022, 20:37:12

careinke wrote:I have to thank the IRS for declaring BTC and ETH an asset and not a security. :) Plus the losses can be carried forward over the years to offset future earnings.

Peace


It's a shame it's tied to the banking backbone, with my gold I simply walk into a dealer and swap it for cash, or even a bank deposit, but since there is no record of where or when I bought it there is no evidence of capital gain. I could have bought it at a flea market the month before at the same price.

I know many people regard that as 'cheating' that everyone should pay all taxes due, but I find these people are always the ones caught in the digital web and have no choice anyway. As for the moral question, well I have no compunction about that, the majority of revolts and revolutions in history are over excess taxes so it's a very human thing to avoid a corrupt governments excesses anyway you can. It's almost a civic duty.
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