Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 25 May 2018, 11:15:43

ralfy wrote:It's too bad that in capitalist systems, efficiency takes place not to decrease consumption but the opposite, and that the goal of businesses is to see increasing consumption because that means more sales, and thus more profits.

It's a waste of time discussing these commonsensical points with Outcast. Use the ignore function.

Yes, heaven forbid someone looks at facts, figures, and real world trends instead of perma-doom FUD.

Efficiency is still taking place, and competition still exists. Pretending that the global ICE fleet mileage hasn't improved meaningfully, or that LED light bulbs aren't FAR more efficient than incandescent because you don't like the profit motives of the "capitalist systems" coming
up with the improvements doesn't change the reality one bit.

Ostriches work that way (ignoring what they don't like to see). Doesn't make them intelligent, though.

Ignore all you want. Good luck finding accurate, usable financial information over time in the doomer porn Cassandra blogs.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 5661
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 20 Jun 2018, 15:09:05

Oil Production in Permian Basin to be capped in 3-4 months as pipelines are maxed out.

pioneer-chairman-says-permian-faces-shut-ins-on-pipe-shortage]

A new pipeline will be finished in a year or two. Until that happens the Permian has peaked. We'll have to see what the condition of the oil market is in a year or two to determine if production growth in the Permian can start up again.

Image
Oil production in the Permian Basin has temporarily (?) peaked due to infrastructure limits.

Cheers!
"Its a brave new world"
---President Obama, 4/25/16
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 21522
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 08 Jul 2018, 18:17:26

Global Oil discoveries fell again in 2017---the energy cliff approaches

energy-cliff-approaches-world-oil-gas-discoveries-continue-decline

Once again the oilcos replaced only a small percentage of the oil consumed in 2017.

This can't go on forever.

We're probably only a year or two out from hitting the wall---or in this case----hitting the energy cliff.

Cheers!
"Its a brave new world"
---President Obama, 4/25/16
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 21522
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 08 Jul 2018, 19:50:13

I look forward to the SRSrocco Report; he is one of the few who understands the real relationship between money, debt and energy. Unfortunately he has a gold/silver agenda, perhaps for one or several reasons. Because his web site supports itself trading/analysis and is a source of income? That's fine with me, as I don't look for purity in any analysis or from any analyst. Perhaps he truly believes precious metals will have lasting value. That precious metals will be a hedge on the way down to a lower-energy lifestyle. Or be the barter of a future feudal economy?

When precious metals have intrinsic value . . . it will already be too late. The end of the fiat money system means the end of global trade, which the United States depends on for minerals, oil, industrial components, and other truly precious commodities that we can no longer source from within the country. So I see stores of shiny metals as having value only in a a pre-industrial trading regime. But that is beyond the American consumer. We stuck at the end of a complex global industrial supply chain where "work" is mostly non-productive . . . paper-pushing, phone-yapping, keyboard-banging business that produces very little . . . but finished toys for of the consumer/import economy. When that stops there is mass chaos and all the gold in the world makes little difference.

Given that: the SRSrocco Report article is right on. Tight shale is a one-time typical oil industry bubble. In spite of rockdoc arm-waving and punditry, there remains no serious attempt anywhere in the world to duplicate the American shale miracle. That depended on clueless investors, a wealthy auto-dependent populace and an pre-existing oil infrastructure (including roads, access to water and existing transport systems) that does not exist anywhere else in the world.
November 2016
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 27391
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 11 Jul 2018, 17:49:10

OPEC predicts global oil demand will rise to over 100 million bbls per day in 2019.

opecs-oil-output-jumps-in-june-as-saudi-arabia-opens-the-taps

OPEC's oil production is already being raised to meet 2018 demand, as KSA tries to reach a new all time high in oil production in response to rising global oil prices and Trump's resultant demand that they pump more.

But that raises a question...if KSA and OPEC are already maxing themselves out to meet the increases in 2018 demand, where will the extra oil come from to meet the rising demand in 2019?

Easy, says, OPEC.. The countries outside OPEC will all increase their production in 2019 by 2.1 million bbls/day. And that means the US, because thats where oil production is increasing. And that means the Permian basin because thats the only place in the US where oil production is rapidly rising.

Can the Permian basin oil production go up another ca. 2 million bbls day in 2019?

And how about in 2020? How much more can Permain basin oil production go up? Inquiring minds want to know.....

CHEERS!
"Its a brave new world"
---President Obama, 4/25/16
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 21522
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby pstarr » Wed 11 Jul 2018, 20:00:30

OPEC has peaked. If you can stomach the truth, go peakoilbarreldotcom. I've asked the same simple question there over several months. This time it generated a bit of discussion, rather than the usual brush off.
November 2016
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 27391
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby tita » Fri 13 Jul 2018, 12:59:10

On the DPR page of EIA, there is a note that wasn't there before:

NOTE:
Productivity estimates may overstate actual production which could be limited by logistical constraints.


I think they refer to the lack of pipeline capacity in the Permian. Obviously, there won't be much growth possible in the Permian until this is resolved, in a year.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... lines.html
User avatar
tita
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 357
Joined: Fri 10 Jun 2005, 02:00:00

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby pstarr » Wed 15 Aug 2018, 18:37:36

The International Energy Agency said a few weeks ago that 2018 was shaping up to be a turning point. “Higher prices and operational improvements are putting the US shale sector on track to achieve positive free cash flow in 2018 for the first time ever,” the IEA said.

But as usual, the politicized paper pushers got it wrong.

WSJ, August 12 2018; Frackers Burn Cash to Sustain U.S. Oil Boom
Two-thirds of U.S. oil producers failed to live within their means in the second quarter, even as oil rose above $70 a barrel. Collectively, 50 major U.S. oil companies reported in their second-quarter results that they have spent $2 billion more than they took in, according to an analysis of free cash flow by FactSet.


The days of rapid efficiency improvements appear to be waning industry-wide. Producers during the downturn figured out how to produce more from each well for less money. Since 2016, however, the oil price at which operators can turn a profit drilling a new shale well has flatlined in some parts of the Permian and increased by an average of 17% in others, according to data from Rystad Energy.

Shale Profits Remain Elusive; Nick Cunningham at Oilprice, Aug 15, 2018
"In short, the cost inflation that many in the shale industry had hoped to keep at bay is only getting started" said Nick Cunningham, at Oilprice.com. The money hemorrhaging will only get worse.
November 2016
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 27391
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 21 Aug 2018, 20:55:18

To demonstrate how completely dead this forum (and by extension, peak oil itself) is, pstarr's post above from an entire week ago 8O is the most recent post in this entire section ... which used to be the bread and butter section of this forum! :? And if that wasn't bad enough, looking through the front page of this forum, this post of mine right here is the only post in this entire forum today! 8O
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
User avatar
copious.abundance
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9535
Joined: Wed 26 Mar 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Cornucopia

Previous

Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot] and 33 guests