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HEAT Waves 2018

Re: HEAT Waves 2018

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 08 Jul 2018, 18:03:46

Heat Wave in UK to last another week

uk-heatwave-to-last-another-week-as-water-warnings-issued

The hemispheric extent of this summer's heat wave is unprecedented, as far as I know. It seems much like something you'd expect from global warming.....where the entire planet is warming up....rather then like the usual isolated heat wave happening here or there.

I will be interested to see where June and July 2018 rank on the list all-time hottest months, and where the year 2018 winds up being listed among all time hottest years.

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Re: HEAT Waves 2018

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 08 Jul 2018, 19:26:09

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Look at the 500mb circulation around the N pole. Extremely weak, disorganized. Is the what you might explext if we shift from a 3 zone to a 2 or 1 zone circulation pattern?

If this is prolonged you may find some extensive ice melt.

Not saying, thinking.

Maybe it’s better to say it’s weak and centered over the GIS instead of the N pole.
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Re: HEAT Waves 2018

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 08 Jul 2018, 20:59:40

Newfie wrote:[

Look at the 500mb circulation around the N pole. Extremely weak, disorganized. Is the what you might explext if we shift from a 3 zone to a 2 or 1 zone circulation pattern?


Yup. The jet stream is farther north then is usual. This is part of why everything is hotter all around the planet in the northern hemisphere.

And this is just the beginning. Its all hotter from here.

heatwave-worse-to-come-water-climate-change]

The link above is mainly about worse to come in Britain, but we're looking at worse to come everywhere.

It makes you wonder why climate change is no longer a political issue. The US is fixated on Trump and the Brits are fixated on Brexit and the EU is fixated on migrants.

Political discussion on climate change isn't happening. Its like people assume the Paris Accords fixed everything.

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Re: HEAT Waves 2018

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 09 Jul 2018, 08:36:13

Excellent observation Plant. Very troubling.

It reinforces my thinking humans are nearly incapable of thinking beyond a very short time window. Something like 3 days. A few can, not many.

Anyway Dohboi used to talk about loosing one of the circulation cells with a debate about whether we just loose one or if we go to a single cell. We may end up with the odd circumstance where we have one cell in the Northern hemisphere and 3 in the Southern. At least for a while.

Another point if consideration is how this happens. Do we go through a prolonged period of fluctuation or does it happen suddenly over just a vlfew years? Maybe it will be seasonal for a while, 3 in the winter and 1 or 2 in the summer. Not a clue. However, if fast it could be a major tipping point effecting humanity because so many of us live in the Northen hemisphere.

I know nothing, just pondering.
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Re: HEAT Waves 2018

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 09 Jul 2018, 09:40:22

Just the variability in weather patterns should be quite problematic for farming around the world going forward
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Re: HEAT Waves 2018

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 09 Jul 2018, 18:04:27

Newfie wrote:Excellent observation Plant. Very troubling.

It reinforces my thinking humans are nearly incapable of thinking beyond a very short time window. Something like 3 days. A few can, not many.

Anyway Dohboi used to talk about loosing one of the circulation cells with a debate about whether we just loose one or if we go to a single cell. We may end up with the odd circumstance where we have one cell in the Northern hemisphere and 3 in the Southern. At least for a while.

Another point if consideration is how this happens. Do we go through a prolonged period of fluctuation or does it happen suddenly over just a vlfew years? Maybe it will be seasonal for a while, 3 in the winter and 1 or 2 in the summer. Not a clue. However, if fast it could be a major tipping point effecting humanity because so many of us live in the Northen hemisphere.

I know nothing, just pondering.



The main issue is only odd numbers of Hadley cells are stable. The reason is fundamental physics, where two cells bump into one another the edges have to be going in the same direction. The side closer to the pole is always a descending boundary as cooler air falls and the side closer to the equator is a rising boundary as the warmer air edge rises. If you think about this it means a planet the size of Earth can have 1, 3 or possibly as many as 5 cells in each polar hemisphere. The really giant planets like Jupiter and Saturn have 7 and 5 respectively, depending on which atmospheric science resource you look at. On Earth the two down dwelling zones of circulation are where you find the jet streams and also where banded desert tends to cross the land masses because the falling air column is completely dry and absorbs all the moisture it comes in contact with as it falls making the land desert where it falls.

When the northern Hemisphere is in the one cell configuration with the current continental arrangement the down falling dry air will mostly fall in the Arctic Ocean basin where it will be able to absorb enormous quantities of water vapor off the surface. this makes the surface waters highly saline so they sink all the way to the bottom just like the waters of the eastern Mediterranean Sea, which in turn draws a constant flow of warm north Atlantic waters into the Arctic basin carrying a huge quantity of heat to the Arctic region.

The last time this was going on circa 3.5 million ybp the Arctic was a 'Mediterranean basin' where fresher surface waters constantly flowed into the region where they were evaporated into water vapor until the hyper salinity caused them to sink and flow back out as dense bottom waters. When the north glaciated this circulation pattern broke down and the Gulf Stream stopped flowing all the way around the Siberian coast as it had for millions of years and the single circulation cell split into three cells with the northern or 'polar' jet stream circling the planet far to the south of the pole. It is possible that during major glaciation periods this situation further divided into five cells during summer months when much solar energy impacts the mid latitudes but computer models give wildly divergent results based on the input conditions and few people have great confidence in what the actual situation looked like in those days because nobody had the instruments to study the weather 20,000 ybp.

Computer models do show one thing however, even numbers of cells are completely unstable and break down nearly instantly because the cells operate as a great overturning function of the air masses. In the current configuration warm air rises at the equator spread north and south and falls again at the tropical jet stream boundary zone. Half the falling air mass goes across the surface back towards the equator and the other half flows across the surface away from the equator where it picks up moisture and heat from the surface until it is buoyant and once again rises. At the top of the rise it splits again with half going away from the equator and half going towards it but this time at high altitude. The third cell forms where the high altitude air has lost all its moisture and energy yet again and falls to the surface again creating the polar jet stream where the polar and temperate cells rub together. this works fine because the polar cell acts kind of like a dead zone, eternally cold air that is dense and dry due to the temperature more or less staying very cold most of the year.

Now just imagine trying to have only two cells, one originating in the tropics and the other around the pole. The cold dry polar air mass is stable-ish while the tropical air wants to rise at the equator and fall at the boundary where it meets the polar mass. The problem that arises is pretty fundamental, the tropical air mass falling that far north or south from the equator is transporting a vast quantity of energy as heat with it, which in turn leads to heating of the polar air mass where they bump up together causing the polar mass to destabilize. As soon and the boundary edge destabilizes the tropical air falling to the surface forces its way north as well as south at the surface. Even though it is 'cold' compared to the tropics it is still 'warm' compared to the polar circle region so it transports heat into the polar cell causing even greater disruption. As the polar cell destabilizes it shrinks closer and closer to the pole until it completely collapses and the tropical down dwelling air current replaces the polar cell with falling tropical air that is relatively speaking warm, at least in the summer months and probably into the winter as well based on paleo climate reconstructions which show tropical vegetation growing as far north as the Arctic circle.

What does the collapse of three cells into two cells and then into one cell look like? Well honestly nobody knows for sure, but a lot of people seem to believe it will require a "blue ocean event" where the Arctic Ocean is relatively free of sea ice and that precipitates a collapse of the polar air mass leading to a chain reaction. Personally I am not so sure that is necessary, I believe a northern heat wave that enters the sub arctic between 55 and 65 degrees north might be enough to trigger the effect, especially with sea ice being as thin as it has been since 2007. The scenario goes something like this, a sub arctic heat wave dumps so much heat in the region that the tropical jet moves north and joins with the polar jet, creating the two Hadley cell arrangement. The transported heat from the new unified jet boundary zone overwhelms the Polar cell and erodes it northward shifting the boundary north to the shore of the Arctic ocean around 70 degrees north. The heat being transported by the surface winds then blows across the Arctic Ocean and rapidly melts the thin sea ice remaining late in the year creating the 'Blue Ocean Event' rather than being caused by said event. The Polar cell collapses without the sea ice supporting it on the surface and the polar cell is replaced with the down dwelling leg of the single cell system.

So it could go either way, the 'blue ocean' could crate the two cell arrangement that collapses into one, or the two cell arrangement could form and create the blue ocean event that collapses the Polar Cell into the single cell arrangement. We simply do not know what is going to happen.

Heck it is even possible both scenarios are correct and it is simply a case of which one happens first being irrelevant because when either happens it will lead inevitably into the other. So the heat waves I watch most closely are not in Pakistan or the Midwest USA, they are the ones in Scandinavia, Siberia and Alaska!
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Re: HEAT Waves 2018

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 09 Jul 2018, 18:08:20

Oh and one more thing, you may think the One northern/ Three southern hemisphere cell arrangement is 'odd' but the climate record seems to indicate that exact arrangement existed from 34 million ybp until around 3 million ybp and 31 millions of stability is nothing to sneeze at. For most of that time the atmospheric CO2 level was around where it is today, gradually climbing higher all the way back to 55 million ybp when there was no permanent ice on the surface of the planet except possibly in some polar mountain peaks.
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Re: HEAT Waves 2018

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 09 Jul 2018, 20:39:51

Thanks, T. It looks like you've been doing a bit of reading on this interesting topic. Can you give us any pointers on where to start if we also want to dig deeper into the science on this, or did you just glean this info from keeping up with the current relevant scientific papers?
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Re: HEAT Waves 2018

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 09 Jul 2018, 21:10:00

54 dead in Quebec heat wave

“This is another wake-up call for us” said Kim Perrotta, executive director of the Canadian Association of Physicians for the Environment (CAPE). “We need to prepare our communities for the climate change that is coming, with adaptation plans that protect the health of Canadians. But more importantly, we need to take dramatic steps to reduce climate emissions as quickly as possible to slow climate change.”

“We have to connect the dots,” added CAPE board member Dr. Larry Barzelai. “We need to recognize how our policies and actions contribute to climate change. We are promoting natural gas in B.C., diluted bitumen in Alberta, and dismantling a cap-and-trade program in Ontario. We are running out of time to save the planet for our children.”


http://theenergymix.com/2018/07/08/54-d ... emergency/
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Re: HEAT Waves 2018

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 10 Jul 2018, 08:37:13

dohboi wrote:Thanks, T. It looks like you've been doing a bit of reading on this interesting topic. Can you give us any pointers on where to start if we also want to dig deeper into the science on this, or did you just glean this info from keeping up with the current relevant scientific papers?


The oldest thread I could find where I posted about this is from 2013. Perhaps you could look at the links embedded there and see if they still hold up?

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Re: HEAT Waves 2018

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 10 Jul 2018, 08:45:57

I wonder if these circulation patterns are reflected in the future warming graphics we see so often? Do they assume a 3 cell circulation or a 1 cell circulation? This would seem massively important.

Also I hear very little about the possibility of or consequences of a circulation state flip.

I’m interested in this because it has significant direct consequences on myself and probably more consequences on the general population than is generally considered. For one it changes all our wind patterns. Which change our weather patterns.

My guess is a single cell would have generally less wind but more violent and unpredictable weather. The toughest would be where we have and indeterminate 1/3 cell state for a prolonged period. Highly unstable with very unpredictable weather.

Just ruminating.
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Re: HEAT Waves 2018

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 10 Jul 2018, 11:39:04

Newfie wrote:I wonder if these circulation patterns are reflected in the future warming graphics we see so often? Do they assume a 3 cell circulation or a 1 cell circulation? This would seem massively important.

Also I hear very little about the possibility of or consequences of a circulation state flip.

I’m interested in this because it has significant direct consequences on myself and probably more consequences on the general population than is generally considered. For one it changes all our wind patterns. Which change our weather patterns.

My guess is a single cell would have generally less wind but more violent and unpredictable weather. The toughest would be where we have and indeterminate 1/3 cell state for a prolonged period. Highly unstable with very unpredictable weather.

Just ruminating.


When the cells collapse into the single cell format Newfoundland and Labrador are subtropical climate locations.. If you can manage it you should plant a few Azalea bushes around your property, when the climate flips they will grow into Azalea Trees that resemble temperate climate Beech trees. The first time i visited Washington D.C. i was shocked to discover that Azalia's grow into full bore trees in the mid-Atlantic coastal climate, and the first time I visited Florida i discovered they could grow even larger than that. I grew up not far from Azalea Michigan 20 miles north of the Ohio border line and the Azaleas around there can survive winter weather but rarely grow bigger than 5 feet high with trunks as big as your forearm. They are subtropical evergreen trees with leathery permanent leaves that put out huge sweet smelling blossoms in summer. IIRC they are native to some Pacific island and were brought back to the USA in the 19th Century.
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Re: HEAT Waves 2018

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 11 Jul 2018, 09:23:35

Fascinating. I haven’t noticed them further South.

The pinelands of NJ have a lot of Moutain Laurel as do parts of PA. it is just wonderful. My parents had a big azelea that still survives but is looking poorly.

I’ve planted some apples pears, cherries, and oaks on my property in Cape Brenton. Three apples and two oaks survive. A couple more oaks have suckers sprouting from the trunks. Not a lot to show for 4 days hard work packing in and planting 40 trees. I do have 3 apples growing on our small lot in Newfoundland.
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Re: HEAT Waves 2018

Unread postby GHung » Wed 11 Jul 2018, 11:29:32

Tanada wrote:
Newfie wrote:I wonder if these circulation patterns are reflected in the future warming graphics we see so often? Do they assume a 3 cell circulation or a 1 cell circulation? This would seem massively important.

Also I hear very little about the possibility of or consequences of a circulation state flip.

I’m interested in this because it has significant direct consequences on myself and probably more consequences on the general population than is generally considered. For one it changes all our wind patterns. Which change our weather patterns.

My guess is a single cell would have generally less wind but more violent and unpredictable weather. The toughest would be where we have and indeterminate 1/3 cell state for a prolonged period. Highly unstable with very unpredictable weather.

Just ruminating.


When the cells collapse into the single cell format Newfoundland and Labrador are subtropical climate locations.. If you can manage it you should plant a few Azalea bushes around your property, when the climate flips they will grow into Azalea Trees that resemble temperate climate Beech trees. The first time i visited Washington D.C. i was shocked to discover that Azalia's grow into full bore trees in the mid-Atlantic coastal climate, and the first time I visited Florida i discovered they could grow even larger than that. I grew up not far from Azalea Michigan 20 miles north of the Ohio border line and the Azaleas around there can survive winter weather but rarely grow bigger than 5 feet high with trunks as big as your forearm. They are subtropical evergreen trees with leathery permanent leaves that put out huge sweet smelling blossoms in summer. IIRC they are native to some Pacific island and were brought back to the USA in the 19th Century.


You seem to be referring to Asian Azaleas. North American Azaleas are members of the Rhododendron family and there are many native varieties. Our property has quite a few different native Rhododendrons/Azaleas which are doing very well.
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Re: HEAT Waves 2018

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 14 Jul 2018, 13:53:22

Mesmerising maps reveal record-breaking temperatures across the world as the Earth experiences 'one of the most intense heat events ever seen'
Meteorologist Nick Humphrey has expressed concern over high temperatures in Northern Siberia
The Laptev Sea and Eastern Siberian Sea have received a 'true roasting' melting ice covering the Arctic Ocean

Well Tanada, I imagine this truly has caught your attention as it should every human on Earth


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/ ... world.html
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Re: HEAT Waves 2018

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Sat 14 Jul 2018, 22:20:46

Here in Texoma overnight lows have been in the mid-80's F for the last 3 weeks. Today's high on Lake Texoma was 116 F. We have been over 100 for most of the last 3 weeks. We had a day or two when it rained and kept it in the 90's but the rain was like bath water.

What's surprising is that article was in the Daily Mail, a very conservative newspaper that usually features deniers like Lord Monckton. (Who was recently told to 'cease and desist' telling people he is a member of the House of Lords, which he is not, nor ever has been.

The Palace has also told him to stop using the portcullis emblem on his correspondence and slides which is the property of the Queen. ( he has since modified the emblem.)
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Re: HEAT Waves 2018

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 15 Jul 2018, 00:13:53

Heat Wave continues setting heat records around the globe....rasing concerns this is new normal due to global warming

2018/jul/13/heatwave-sees-record-high-temperatures-set-around-world-this-week

What’s unusual is the hemispheric scale of the heatwave,” said Michael Mann, director of the Earth System Science Center at Pennsylvania State University. “It’s not just the magnitude in any one location but that high temperatures are being seen over such a large area.”

Just to make all the heat waves even more anomalous---this is an La Nina year when the planet is normally cooler then average.

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Re: HEAT Waves 2018

Unread postby Sys1 » Sun 15 Jul 2018, 03:28:14

If as said Guy McPherson for several years we have entered abrupt climate change we will know very soon aka before 2030 if we are toasted or not. For several days next to Paris, weather is hot while the sky looks yellowish especially morning and evening.
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Re: HEAT Waves 2018

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 15 Jul 2018, 06:11:48

Sys1 wrote:If as said Guy McPherson for several years we have entered abrupt climate change we will know very soon aka before 2030 if we are toasted or not. For several days next to Paris, weather is hot while the sky looks yellowish especially morning and evening.

We may know roughly 2020 considering, the dramatic effect to weather patterns that a blue ocean event in the Arctic would have. And then factor in the release of the disassociated methane in the ESAS, which Cid Yama has referenced in the Runaway Warming threads ,backed by warnings of scientists that even a relatively small % of the methane there, escaping could have catastrophic impacts by immediately raising temperatures over the N. Hemisphere and ruining harvests in breadbasket farming areas
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Re: HEAT Waves 2018

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 15 Jul 2018, 08:45:37

hottest La Niña year to date on record

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... -this-week
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