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Saudi Aramco IPO

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: KSA has peaked, cancels Aramco IPO

Unread postby jawagord » Thu 05 Jul 2018, 17:10:38

When has KSA ever produced 12 mmBBL/D?
https://tradingeconomics.com/saudi-arab ... production
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Re: KSA has peaked, cancels Aramco IPO

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 05 Jul 2018, 17:15:56

Plantagenet wrote:The WSJ is reporting that Saudi Arabia is not going to go through with its plan to sell shares in Aramco and its oil assets

doubts-grow-aramco-ipo-will-ever-happen-

The sale has already been postposed several times. The reason its looking like the whole things is going to be cancelled is that Saudi is unwilling to disclose information about the condition of their oil assets and oil reserves, apparently because they don't want the world to know how close to depletion Ghawar and their other legacy oil fields are in.

That's one possible reason.

Another is that the Saudis now (in view of recent months of price action and relative global supply / demand factors) believe the odds are good that average oil prices will be persistently high in coming decades (say well above $100), and that they'd rather take some risk and have all that income for themselves.

And they can mitigate quite a bit of risk by selling lots of oil futures over a variety of expiration timeframes if/when the price spikes "high enough". They have plenty of credit. If they sell "high" and the price goes higher, then they're getting much more cash flow from what they sell short term. If they sell "high" and the price pulls back a lot, they can take big profits on that pullback.

It's kind of like one of those "you have to have money to make money" scenarios, to me. Of course, they shouldn't overdo it.

...

One thing about the global oil outlook -- just wait a month or three, and it will change, apparently.
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Re: KSA has peaked, cancels Aramco IPO

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 05 Jul 2018, 17:20:58

jawagord wrote:When has KSA ever produced 12 mmBBL/D?
https://tradingeconomics.com/saudi-arab ... production


Just five days ago KSA said they could raise their production by 2 million bbls/day to 12 million barrels/day.

saudi-king-said-will-boost-oil-output-if-needed-

Now they are saying forget about that--- they can't do it. And whats more, forget about the IPO they've been preparing too. They're not going to do that either. They don't want anybody else to see the books or check those claims about oil reserves, don't you know, because their claims might be specious and they might get sued for lying about their oil reserves.

Saudi lying about their oil reserves? Why, perish the thought! 8) :lol: :) :-D :!:

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Re: KSA has peaked, cancels Aramco IPO

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 05 Jul 2018, 17:42:35

The sale has already been postposed several times. The reason its looking like the whole things is going to be cancelled is that Saudi is unwilling to disclose information about the condition of their oil assets and oil reserves, apparently because they don't want the world to know how close to depletion Ghawar and their other legacy oil fields are in.


Please quote from the article where it says that. Aramco had external third party audits done on their reserves by Gaffney & Cline and DeGolyer MacNaughton. The statement from G&C was that the reserves were in line with what Aramco had been saying all along. Those reports would have been filed with the normal documents leading up to an IPO and would become public once the IPO was completed.

and what does Aramco have to say?

Officials with Aramco, which is short for Saudi Arabian Oil Co., the country's energy ministry or government did not immediately respond to request for comment.


-and if there was a potential problem with their reserves then why would Aramco go and get two third party independent audits done? Why would they bother trying to do an IPO when they fully understand the disclosure requirements of the two main international exchanges they were looking to list on? That makes absolutely no sense at all.

This is consistent with news reports that KSA is telling Trump its impossible for them to raise their production to bring down oil prices. 


Yeah, right. Please show us where that news report is. Saudi Arabia is part of OPEC and they cannot independently decide to raise production and still maintain any control of the organization (they have been largely the ones reigning in production from other members). If the Saudis independently opened up the taps so would other OPEC members and then the market would be a complete mess. SA already agreed to raise production by 1 MMbpd at the OPEC meeting in May. Trump is almost certainly making it all up when he states the Saudis agreed to his request to raise production by 2 MMbbls/d...it is more likely they talked in generalities about keeping the market stable and replacing production lost to sanctions when necessary (which would be more in keeping with the ways of negotiation in the Arab world). I am sure the Saudis are happy with oil prices are currently, demand is still high and their market share has not been eroded.
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Re: KSA has peaked, cancels Aramco IPO

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 05 Jul 2018, 17:50:38

The sale has already been postposed several times.


Please quote from the article where it says that.


No problemo. Here is a direct quote from the WSJ article addressing your question:

"First proposed by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in January 2016, the IPO was originally meant to be done last year. It has been pushed back several times and was most recently slated for next year."

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Re: KSA has peaked, cancels Aramco IPO

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 05 Jul 2018, 18:03:39

The highest production KSA ever attained was 10.3 million bbls/day back in April 2015.

Apparently they can't get it back up again. The NY Times is reporting that most experts believe they would have a hard time just getting production back up to that level, and getting production up to 11 or 12 million bbls/day is well night impossible without a massive drilling program, which isn't happening.

nytimes: oil-saudi-arabia


And if KSA can't exceed their peak production from April 2015, then Saudi has peaked.

-----------------------------------------------------------

At the same time this is going the WSJ publishes a blockbuster article saying KSA isn''t going through with their much ballyhooed sale of Aramco because they fear doing full disclosure on the nature of their oil reserves.

I quote from the WSJ article below:

Saudi officials and people close to the process say the company and the country simply aren’t ready for an IPO that could raise $100 billion but also bring unprecedented scrutiny to the kingdom’s crown jewel.

“Everyone is almost certain it is not going to happen,” said a senior executive at Aramco, speaking of the IPO.

Aramco executives and outside advisers have become more vocal in recent months about telling Prince Mohammed about the problems with listing the company, government officials said.

Saudi officials say they have determined that listing on a large stock exchange in New York, London or Hong Kong would carry too many legal risks, exposing Aramco to shareholder lawsuits


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Re: KSA has peaked, cancels Aramco IPO

Unread postby kublikhan » Thu 05 Jul 2018, 18:08:39

Looks like you took quite a few liberties in interpreting that article Plant. First off, the article says doubts have emerged. It did not say it was offically cancelled. Second, the article says nothing about KSA peaking. Third, it does not list the reason for the delays/doubts as having anything to do with Ghawar depletion or an unwillingness to release reserve numbers. Instead, the article cited exposure to shareholder lawsuits as a reason not to go forth. Other sources cited reasons such as problems with the low oil price in the last few years, problems with the valuation, lack of property rights, etc. Not an unwillingness to disclose information on oil reserves. In fact, 2 external audits have reported that Aramco's reserves are actually slightly higher than official estimates:

APRIL 29, 2018 - An audit of Saudi Aramco’s oil reserves - an essential part of the preparatory work for its planned initial public offering - has found the state oil giant to have higher reserves than it previously reported. the independent external audit has found the proven oil reserves to be at least 270 billion barrels, which is slightly higher than the 260.8 billion barrels the company reported in its 2016 annual review. Aramco’s official reserves figures were “more than confirmed” said one source. “This is good for the company’s valuation.”

A reserves total significantly above or below the 261 billion figure would likely affect Aramco’s potential market value in the listing and is being closely watched by investors. Dallas-based DeGolyer and MacNaughton, and Gaffney, Cline and Associates, part of Baker Hughes, are involved in the auditing.
Audit finds Aramco oil reserves slightly higher than reported: sources
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Re: KSA has peaked, cancels Aramco IPO

Unread postby Cog » Thu 05 Jul 2018, 18:21:47

Planty you basically inserted YOUR opinion into why Aramco isn't going forward with their IPO. The article doesn't say what you are trying to get it to say. The IPO is not conditional on how many barrels Aramco can produce and never has relied on that number. Other well known factors, such as exposure to lawsuits is much more likely. Going public with a company exposes you to a lot of oversight that a private company does not have.
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Re: KSA has peaked, cancels Aramco IPO

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 05 Jul 2018, 18:50:01

Cog wrote:Planty ... The IPO is not conditional on how many barrels Aramco can produce and never has relied on that number. Other well known factors, such as exposure to lawsuits is much more likely. Going public with a company exposes you to a lot of oversight that a private company does not have.


Cogy, I really appreciate it when you try to set me straight on something. Your posts are so clear---so succinct---and often right on the point. Its usually great. But I have to differ with you on this one.

You are right that the IPO isn't conditional on how many barrels ARAMCO can produce---but the THE PRICE OF THE SHARES IN THE IPO WILL BE BASED ON HOW MANY BBLS OF OIL ARAMCO CAN PRODUCE. Thats how they're going to value the IPO. Its a very important parameter to get right. And if they don't get it right for the IPO, they'll get sued.

Think about it--- ARAMCO's recoverable oil reserves are the key to the IPO. Thats the main asset thats being offered in the IPO. The planned ARAMCO IPO is all about the oil and the price of the IPO (which is now unlikely) will be based directly on investor's evaluations of just how much oil there is in Aramco's IPO.

AND lawsuits over IPOs commonly occur when all facts relevant to the IPO aren't disclosed or materially false statements are made as part of the IPO process.

Given that Aramco's oil is the core asset that was going to be offered in the IPO, I don't understand why the idea that Aramco's oil might something do with Aramco's concern about full disclosure of facts leading to the probable cancellation of the IPO is such a difficult thing for you or the other people here for grasp.

The WSJ journal is reporting ARAMCO---the Saudi National Oil Company--- has concerns about making disclosures and fears of being sued if they go ahead with the IPO. OK---just What other issues do you think the Saudi National Oil Company people are concerned about if not about the oil that is the main asset being offered in the IPO? What do you think they are going to be sued over if it has nothing to do with the core asset being offered in the IPO?

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Re: KSA has peaked, cancels Aramco IPO

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 05 Jul 2018, 19:08:38

kublikhan wrote:Looks like you took quite a few liberties in interpreting that article Plant. First off, the article says doubts have emerged. It did not say it was offically cancelled.


It also said the IPO sale has been postponed several times and insiders at ARAMCO say the IPO will never happen.

I don't get why people don't understand the significance of this. The WSJ has written an article giving us a peek inside the secretive world of ARAMCO and KSA. The WSJ article provides early warning the world that the KSA IPO isn't likely to happen. Yes, it hasn't been officially cancelled yet---thats why the WSJ story is such big news. Its whats called a "scoop" by newsmen. The WSJ is breaking an important inside story here. Its like the stories warning that ENRON was about to collapse before it collapsed....knowledge is power and getting the info first is very powerful. IMHO People should pay attention to good journalism like this.

kublikhan wrote: Second, the article says nothing about KSA peaking.


No, but a quick look at the history of KSA oil production shows current oil production is well below the peak it hit in April 2015. And Trump just asked them to produce more, and the NYTIMES and others are reporting that Saudi can't do it. That means the April 2015 peak isn't very likely to be surpassed.

kublikhan wrote:Third, it does not list the reason for the delays/doubts as having anything to do with ... unwillingness to release reserve numbers.


The WSJ article cites ARAMCO insiders as saying they fear making disclosures during the IPO process. Considering that the principal data that ARAMCO has that is relevant to the IPO is all oil related, I don't see how you can rule out the idea that ARAMCO does't want to make full disclosures about their oil data as part of the IPO based on their oil reserves.

If it isn't oil-related data that ARAMCO fears disclosing during the IPO process, then what exactly is it?

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Re: KSA has peaked, cancels Aramco IPO

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 05 Jul 2018, 19:48:48

The WSJ article cites ARAMCO insiders as saying they fear making disclosures during the IPO process. Considering that the principal data that ARAMCO has that is relevant to the IPO is all oil related, I don't see how you can rule out the idea that ARAMCO does't want to make full disclosures about their oil data as part of the IPO based on their oil reserves.


As has been pointed out by several folks here you just made all of this crap up. Either you have trouble with reading comprehension or you have a very vivid imagination that you like to let run rampant.
- there is no suggestion in the article that the Saudis have cancelled the IPO....you claimed it did
-there is no suggestion in the article the Saudis are worried about making reserve information public....you claimed it did

and rather than just say "oh, OK, you guys caught me gilding the lily you proceed to dig yourself deeper.

The Saudis are not in the least concerned about normal disclosure of any Aramco business. If they were they would never have proceeded down the IPO path in the first place (which they did with eyes wide open) as it requires full disclosure of audited reserves and independent audits of the past 3-5 years of financial records (depending on where the listing will be). Furthermore, they are fully aware that once listed they are governed by the concept of "continuous disclosure" such that the minute anything happens in their universe that can have a material impact on their share price they must make a press release or risk have trading halted. You would have to be extremely naive to think the Saudis aren't sophisticated enough to understand what they were getting themselves into. These rules are well known and they have some of the largest banks in the world advising them.

What drives when and where the Saudis will do an IPO is almost certainly largely commodity price and where they think it is going. If they believe there is further upward movement on price why do an IPO now when you might see 20% or more uplift in valuation in 6 months time? If the reserves reports were completed late in 2017 they would have used the average oil, gas and liquids pricing for 2017. If they do another update on those reserve reports in late 2018 the price used will be the average for 2018 which means there will be a significant uplift on the valuation of Aramco going into an IPO. They, of course, are cognizant of the fact the US is a hotbed of litigious behavior and will think twice of putting themselves registered in a jurisdiction that would allow for class action suits (of which NY state is famous for). This might be weighing heavy on their minds in terms of listing on the NYSE but they have other options including LSE, TSX and various exchanges in the Middle East and Far East that together could provide the level of equity they seek and would insulate them from US-based class action suits.
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Re: KSA has peaked, cancels Aramco IPO

Unread postby Cog » Thu 05 Jul 2018, 19:55:31

Just a suspicion on my part, but its likely the amount of money being siphoned out by the royals would be of concern to an investor. In a public offering, you have to disclose salaries and where money is spent. A money trail if you will. That is what I think is the sticking point on the transparency issue involved with a public offering of stock.

To me it makes little difference if Aramco can pump 12 million barrels a day or not. But how long can they maintain current production at a profit is what the reserve numbers should tell you. If you go back to the doom and gloom days of 2008, over at The Oil Drum, I believe the doom forecast was that SA was post-peak and their production would have declined a lot by now. Well that didn't happen.
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Re: KSA has peaked, cancels Aramco IPO

Unread postby Cog » Thu 05 Jul 2018, 19:58:57

You can add the USA to that list of pre-peak countries pstarr. Much to the consternation of the doomers. Double-peak anyone?
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Re: KSA has peaked, cancels Aramco IPO

Unread postby kublikhan » Thu 05 Jul 2018, 20:16:50

Plantagenet wrote:It also said the IPO sale has been postponed several times and insiders at ARAMCO say the IPO will never happen.

I don't get why people don't understand the significance of this. The WSJ has written an article giving us a peek inside the secretive world of ARAMCO and KSA. The WSJ article provides early warning the world that the KSA IPO isn't likely to happen. Yes, it hasn't been officially cancelled yet---thats why the WSJ story is such big news. Its whats called a "scoop" by newsmen. The WSJ is breaking an important inside story here. Its like the stories warning that ENRON was about to collapse before it collapsed....knowledge is power and getting the info first is very powerful. IMHO People should pay attention to good journalism like this.
Because this is nothing new. There have been anonymous insiders voicing skepticism about the IPO from the beginning. Just last year the Financial Times reported Saudi Arabia was shopping around for a private sale instead of an IPO. CNBC also reported last year that shelving the IPO would make sense. And just because an IPO doesn't happen, that doesn't mean that no sale at all would happen. Several sources have stated they are floating the idea of a private sale.

Plantagenet wrote:No, but a quick look at the history of KSA oil production shows current oil production is well below the peak it hit in April 2015. And Trump just asked them to produce more, and the NYTIMES and others are reporting that Saudi can't do it. That means the April 2015 peak isn't very likely to be surpassed.
The oil price fell through the floor in 2015 and 2016. And for 2017 and 2018 they were confined from increasing production because of the OPEC deal. This does not imply Saudi production has peaked. It implies they market was oversupplied in 2015-2016 and Saudi Arabia took steps to correct the imbalance in 2017-2018. And you are misrepresenting the NY Times article. Trump was asking for Saudi Arabia for a large 2 million bpd increase. However the analysts said a max increase of 700,000 bpd in the short term was more likely. Trump was pushing a political agenda. He wants to starve Iran out of oil revenue. This has nothing to do with a peak and is all about politics.

Plantagenet wrote:The WSJ article cites ARAMCO insiders as saying they fear making disclosures during the IPO process.
They didn't say they feared making disclosures during the IPO process. They said they feared the additional scrutiny going public would bring. As Cog mentioned, anytime a company goes public it is exposed to additional scrutiny that a private company does not have. That is one of the reasons the Saudis were exploring the option of a private sale as opposed to an IPO.

IPO versus private placement: What's the difference?
Private companies that seek to raise capital through issuing securities have two options: offering securities to the public or through a private placement. Regulations on publicly traded securities are subject to more scrutiny than those for private placements.
IPO versus private placement: What's the difference?

Initiating an IPO is one of the biggest decisions a private company can make. This is especially true in today’s environment, where investor and regulatory scrutiny are high, and investment dollars remain scarce.

What’s the bottom line?
Getting ready for an IPO can be a daunting exercise even under ideal circumstances. In an era of increased investor scrutiny and regulatory complexity, the effort can sometimes feel insurmountable.
Are you ready to go public?
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Re: KSA has peaked, cancels Aramco IPO

Unread postby kublikhan » Thu 05 Jul 2018, 20:19:13

pstarr wrote:
Cog wrote:You can add the USA to that list of pre-peak countries pstarr. Much to the consternation of the doomers. Double-peak anyone?
How do you know that?

All you have are the assurances of rockdentist, an oil company intern. I have years of research, insider information (which I can not share with you. You understand why, right :shock: ) and a deep knowledge of its oil geology.
It's not insider information. It's public:

U.S. Oil Output Set to Average 10.7 Million Barrels a Day in 2018, Highest on Record
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Re: KSA has peaked, cancels Aramco IPO

Unread postby kublikhan » Thu 05 Jul 2018, 20:36:05

pstarr wrote:Not the USA, but SA and the rest of OPEC is long past peak.
June was already close to SA's peak production. July will likely exceed it:

Saudi Arabia has increased its oil production this month by 700,000 bpd to 10.70 million bpd, very close to its highest-ever production of 10.72 million bpd from November 2016. “The Saudi number for June will be very, very high,” an industry source tracking Saudi Arabia’s oil production told Reuters on Friday. “Surprisingly high.” For July, the Saudis plan to pump around 11 million bpd of crude oil.
Saudis Boost June Oil Production Close To All-Time High
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Re: KSA has peaked, cancels Aramco IPO

Unread postby kublikhan » Thu 05 Jul 2018, 20:50:25

The oil barrel is half-full.
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Re: KSA has peaked, cancels Aramco IPO

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 05 Jul 2018, 21:56:28

Just a suspicion on my part, but its likely the amount of money being siphoned out by the royals would be of concern to an investor. In a public offering, you have to disclose salaries and where money is spent. A money trail if you will. That is what I think is the sticking point on the transparency issue involved with a public offering of stock.


It might not be of concern to an investor but it might create problems for the financial records they are required to provide in order to accomplish the IPO. But I think this may not be important simply because this is an IPO of Aramco. Most of the income from Aramco ended up going to the state, what the state did with it is not really of consequence to Aramco's books, which will be what are run over with a fine tooth comb by the various regulatory groups. What happens to the governments share of Aramco's cashflow has no effect on how Aramco's books are viewed in terms of an IPO as far as I can tell.
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Re: KSA has peaked, cancels Aramco IPO

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 06 Jul 2018, 00:21:49

rockdoc123 wrote:. Saudi Arabia is part of OPEC and they cannot independently decide to raise production


And yet Kublikhan has found several news stories indicating that KSA actually IS independently increasing oil production, and plans to independently increase production even more in July....perhaps reaching a new all time peak in oil time oil production.

Will wonders never cease!

It will be very interesting to see how long KSA can sustain production at these new higher levels. You'd think that boosting production of oil to a new peak would be excellent PR for the long planned IPO of ARAMCO and its oil....but the WSJ just reported that ARAMCO insiders actually want the IPO called off.

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Re: KSA has peaked, cancels Aramco IPO

Unread postby tita » Fri 06 Jul 2018, 02:08:10

Anyway, the idea that KSA has peaked is pure speculation, no hard facts.

There are several hints that KSA may be near its peak. They are going to build nuclear plants for their electricity needs (currently entirely produced from oil and gas), they were producing a little bit below their quota recently, they are in a process of diversification of their economy, and there is this IPO.

But hints are not facts. There was a lot of speculation in 2007 that KSA had peaked as their production was down by 1Mb/d (to 8.5Mb/d) from 2005, and oil prices were increasing. And here we are, KSA still producing at their highest rates.

Even if KSA can't reach 11 Mb/d this summer, that won't mean they are at their peak. They may have just delayed some investments, like everybody else, when prices were low.
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