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Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 25 Jun 2018, 17:50:09

Subjectivist wrote:
Newfie wrote:FWIW Tanada I also do not like money spent on these foolish projects.

But also I don’t want to see NYC et al being moved inland. I’d prefer to just let them die.


I am pretty sure the people of those cities will bject to jst dropping dead as the waters rise. Doesn't it make more sense to move them early in a non disruptie manner?


I said I’d rather the cities die, not the people within them.

To your point about moving early what would be the first steps? Perhaps banning all development in the at risk zones? If you don’t build it you don’t have to move it.

If you control your population you don’t have to build it in the first place.

So, where do we start?
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby baha » Mon 25 Jun 2018, 19:08:39

That is the 64 million dollar question...you start by acknowledging SLR is a reality. And agreeing to subsidize the adaptations.

Take New Orleans for example. Baton Rouge is on the first high ground you come to on the Mississippi river. You build industry and housing in BR and then incentivize the NO residents to move. Buy their house, or transfer title to a new fully paid house in BR.

I didn't invent capitalism but I can work it. Money talks. I know...where does it come from? We can just print it right? Never-mind all the energy needed to make it happen. The other choice is to let them die in a hurricane. :twisted:

But NO, They are building movable flood walls and raising the levees. What did I say about short sighted?
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Subjectivist » Mon 25 Jun 2018, 19:17:41

Newfie wrote:
Subjectivist wrote:
Newfie wrote:FWIW Tanada I also do not like money spent on these foolish projects.

But also I don’t want to see NYC et al being moved inland. I’d prefer to just let them die.


I am pretty sure the people of those cities will bject to jst dropping dead as the waters rise. Doesn't it make more sense to move them early in a non disruptie manner?


I said I’d rather the cities die, not the people within them.

To your point about moving early what would be the first steps? Perhaps banning all development in the at risk zones? If you don’t build it you don’t have to move it.

If you control your population you don’t have to build it in the first place.

So, where do we start?


IMO the place to start is banning all new construction in the 500 year flood plain. Work your way up from there by doing new flood maps once a decade as sea levels rise. No grandfathering in, if your beach house gets destroyed in a storm you do not get to build a replacement.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 25 Jun 2018, 19:45:31

I don’t think 500 year flood plains will cut it. Just my gut but if you are looking at end of century SLR on the order of 10 meters then that’s way above the 500 year flood plain. Maybe the 500 year flood plain PPUS 10 meters. But even then you are looking at structures being at risk in 80 years.

Tunnels into NYC and some subways are well over 100 years old with no intention of replacement.

And as to incentives, we need to start by removing incentives to stay put. Make it clear they are on their own. If you want to incentiveize tell them no more flood insurance in 5 years. But give them free or reduced insurance in new approved areas.

Yes, hard assed approach. But this effort ain’t gonna be cheap. We have to make it clear to everyone there are consequences for short sighted thinking.

Like I said, a few years ago working on the new rail tunnel into NYC, they raised the portals by 10 feet for SLR. I don’t know the design life if the tunnel, not sure it was even contemplated, but it’s well over 100 years. What’s a safe SLR estimate for 2220? Better yet, what’s the chances Manhattan will be viable by 2220?
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 26 Jun 2018, 07:59:37

Good points, Newf.

And to get back to Florida's issues with slr:

'Florida is about to be wiped off the map'

Sea level rises are not some distant threat; for many Americans they are very real. In an extract from her chilling new book, Rising, Elizabeth Rush details how the US coastline will be radically transformed in the coming years

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... abeth-rush

...But Hal says it doesn’t matter whether you live six feet above sea level or sixty-five, because he, like James Hansen, believes that all of these predictions are, to put it mildly, very, very low.

“The rate of sea level rise is currently doubling every seven years, and if it were to continue in this manner, Ponzi scheme style, we would have 205 feet of sea level rise by 2095,” he says.

“And while I don’t think we are going to get that much water by the end of the century, I do think we have to take seriously the possibility that we could have something like 15 feet by then.”

...Dig into geologic history and you discover this: when sea levels have risen in the past, they have usually not done so gradually, but rather in rapid surges, jumping as much as 50 feet over a short three centuries. Scientists call these events “meltwater pulses”...
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby baha » Tue 26 Jun 2018, 09:10:45

Newfie wrote:I don’t think 500 year flood plains will cut it.


That's interesting. Just like Rockman, I looked at the flood maps (on-line) before I bought my house. There are two creeks nearby. The one in the side yard is seasonal, it only has water in the spring. In a 500 year flood it is 20 feet wide. The creek way out back always has water and it gets 50 yards wide in a 500 year flood.

I have lived here 7 years and already seen those conditions twice. Once during Hurricane Matthew. I think the map drawers were paid off by the land developers :)

I had pics but I lost them in a phone incident :)
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 06 Jul 2018, 07:52:43

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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 08 Jul 2018, 09:21:15

Pacific Northwest waves were getting bigger. Based on sophisticated statistical analysis of deepwater buoy data now spanning 30 years, the new 100-year event estimate is 14 meters. Ruggiero even suggests the possibility of one towering higher than a five-story building.


https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... northwest/
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 08 Jul 2018, 12:22:58

Great catch, Newf.

This is the kind of thing that people trying to downplay slr tend to miss. It's not just slr, but all the add on effects of stronger storms and higher waves.

The sea isn't going to just be incrementally creeping up the shore at rate of a millimeter or a few per year. On top of that 'rising floor' will be more and more storms and waves that are more and more likely to be well beyond anything in the historical record.

Add to that the likelihood that these events will be accompanied by beyond-Biblical rainfall events, and you have a perfect prescription for lots and lots of misery as people are taken mostly unawares by deadly catastrophes.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Zarquon » Thu 09 Aug 2018, 10:58:37

https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... sing-seas/

"Coastal communities struggling to adapt to climate change are beginning to do what was once unthinkable: retreat.
...
While commiserating with a neighbor, Coleman heard about a program called Blue Acres. Its premise struck her as radically sensible: The government would “buy out” her repeatedly flooded property at its prestorm value instead of paying to repair it yet again. Demolition crews would then knock down the house and remove other markers of human habitation. She would transfer the deed to the state, and redevelopment would be blocked, forever."
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 09 Aug 2018, 12:54:34

Growing up in a coastal area it’s an idea I learned from my Dad.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby jawagord » Thu 09 Aug 2018, 13:30:52

Zarquon wrote:https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/surrendering-to-rising-seas/

"Coastal communities struggling to adapt to climate change are beginning to do what was once unthinkable: retreat.
...
While commiserating with a neighbor, Coleman heard about a program called Blue Acres. Its premise struck her as radically sensible: The government would “buy out” her repeatedly flooded property at its prestorm value instead of paying to repair it yet again. Demolition crews would then knock down the house and remove other markers of human habitation. She would transfer the deed to the state, and redevelopment would be blocked, forever."


Maybe the problem isn't really sea level rise??

She discovered that parts of her neighborhood, like many chunks of this region, were developed atop low-lying wetlands, which had been elevated with poorly draining “fill” back around the early 20th century. As Coleman researched more deeply, a bigger picture emerged. “I started to realize that, in a sense, we were victims of a system because we were living in a neighborhood that should have never been built,” she says.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 09 Aug 2018, 17:33:51

I have a touch point that I monitor ever few years in coastal NJ. There was a difchndug along the edge of the woods and the salt meadows. That line is slowly retreating, but Dad has noted that to me back in ‘60’s, pointing out features that have shrunk.

The folks on Tangier Island are not convienced of SLR, as their island disappears, because it’s been going on for centuries. Normal erosion.

OTOH, it’s pretty clear Greenland is melting and that water has to go somewhere. Also the temp is rising which expands the water. So I’m pretty convienced it is occurring, just hard to point out.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 25 Aug 2018, 10:55:49


Study Finds Billions of Dollars in Home Value Lost to Rising Sea Levels


Rather than looking at the neighborhood as a whole, flooding was measured on the basis of individual properties. They offer predictions for future flood risk and home value change up to 2033—which shows that some properties with no history of flooding are at risk, and homeowners stand to lose millions of dollars.


Previous studies have forecasted changes in home values in the future, but by using historical records and taking such a fine-grained approach, the team was able to show for the first time that housing markets have already started showing the effects of rising sea levels.

“This is the very beginning indicator that sea level rise and flooding is having an economic impact, and that the market is responding to it,” said Matthew Eby, executive director of First Street Foundation.

And the decline in home values doesn’t just come from houses getting flooded. In addition to house lots, they also looked at the elevation of each road and its exposure to nearby bodies of water. Nearby flooding of roads can impact house prices because it affects commutes and mobility, said Jeremy Porter, professor of sociology at the City University of New York, lecturer in environmental health sciences at Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, and academic data consultant at First Street Foundation.

The Northeast data has been consistent with previous data from the South, a surprise for the team. Over half of the top 20 affected cities and zip codes are in the Northeast. “The exposure of the New Jersey shore is incredible,” McAlpine said. “It takes you back a little bit when you look at Ocean City and see how many homes are regularly dealing with flooding.” ...


http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/next/earth ... ea-levels/
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sat 25 Aug 2018, 12:48:44

Image
This is the Miacomet Golf Course on Nantucket Island, MA. About 125 years old, the irrigated land has subsided about 18 inches below the surrounding moors in that period. Even the moors are not stable, the once heavily forested island was clearcut by the late 19th Century. The forest detritus layer that supports the moors has decayed away since then, the remaining plant cover is sparse compared to a few decades ago.

My own land is in a second growth pine forest in the center island area. Somewhere between 300 and 1000 years from now, the island will have shrank to a fraction of the present size, and this will be beachfront property.
Image
(Not my house, rather a neighbor down the lane.)(This modest 4-bedroom, 4-bath with pool and hot tub is listed for $3,995,000.)
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby diemos » Sat 25 Aug 2018, 15:06:35

Why that's just a starter mansion.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sat 25 Aug 2018, 15:55:23

diemos wrote:Why that's just a starter mansion.

Correct. I have a 2-bedroom, 2-bath, under 1000 sq ft with no spa or pool. However it is on 3.2 acres, not the less-than-three-quarter acre of the above dwelling. We can build 3 or 4 more homes as rentals in addition to the one I have, or subdivide and sell.

Eventually, it will be underwater. If you believe in AGW, perhaps a tropical climate before then.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 25 Aug 2018, 16:15:33

KJ - But the good news: you won't be alive to see much of the property lost to SL rise let alone become beach front property. And who ever owns the land in 50 years will likewise see little of the land THAT THEYWILL BUY lost to SL rise in their life time. And who ever buys it when it's beach front will not have lost any of that future submerged land because it will not be there when they buy the: they probably won't be born for another 50+ years yet.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 25 Aug 2018, 18:58:41

Yes, random, unsubstantiated anecdote is a much better way to judge what is happening than careful, peer reviewed studies... :lol: :lol: :lol:

I will now leave you bright folks to your own alternative reality with your own alternative facts.

The truth, as we have all be instructed by our overmasters, is not, after all, the truth.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby jedrider » Fri 31 Aug 2018, 13:05:27

ROCKMAN wrote:KJ - But the good news: you won't be alive to see much of the property lost to SL rise let alone become beach front property. And who ever owns the land in 50 years will likewise see little of the land THAT THEYWILL BUY lost to SL rise in their life time. And who ever buys it when it's beach front will not have lost any of that future submerged land because it will not be there when they buy the: they probably won't be born for another 50+ years yet.


Ah, the 'Not in my Lifetime' response. Yes, we like shoving consequences and responsibility on future generations.

Unfortunately for us (collectively) that while the older among us lucked out in our fifty year time slot, the next fifty year time slot will probably see whole cities and suburbs submerged and abandoned. I think Manhattan will become another Venice, so property will not quite become worthless, but then who would be the tourists? and what wealth would there be to manage at that point? Lifeboats may be a growth industry, though, and there could be a Futures market on it, too :-D
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