by KaiserJeep » Thu 14 Jun 2018, 11:52:36
The simple relationship of food availability and birth rates is useless. Think about it for a minute. The USA with it's less-than-replacement birth rate, also exports huge amounts of foods, mostly as dry grains such as wheat and rice, to China, India, Africa, and other parts of Asia. We also export huge amounts of coal, natural gas, and refined petroleum products.
Several unsustainable practices contribute to this. These would include mechanized, petroleum-powered agriculture, the pumping of deep fossil water aquifers such as the Ogalalla, and petroleum-powered transport of foods via truck/rail/ship.
As oil increases in price and natural gas supplies dwindle, food gets more expensive and eventually food exports will cease. The hardship-stimulated birth rates in less food secure places ensure massive and sudden famines. Nor will there be any relief, as the First World falls back to self-sufficient food production, less any exports. The USA will still be exporting coal, and for a short while, dwindling amounts of natural gas - but in the absence of cheap petroleum fuels, not much food.
I am convinced of the correctness of my analysis, regardless of the (correct) current linkage between food security and birthrates you pointed out. Your analysis assumes steady state energy resources, mine assumes an end to cheap petroleum.
That after all, is what is meant by Peak Oil.
KaiserJeep 2.0, Neural Subnode 0010 0000 0001 0110 - 1001 0011 0011, Tertiary Adjunct to Unimatrix 0000 0000 0001
Resistance is Futile, YOU will be Assimilated.
Warning: Messages timestamped before April 1, 2016, 06:00 PST were posted by the unmodified human KaiserJeep 1.0