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Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 10 Jun 2018, 23:39:25

Soooo, the article you are referencing is based on a NOAA study, one conclusion from which is:

...In the case of global mean surface temperature, the IPCC AR5 presents a strong body of scientific evidence that most of the global warming observed over the past half century is very likely due to human-caused greenhouse gas emissions.


Do you accept that conclusion, or only the ones that fit your preconceived notions?

https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warmin ... urricanes/

Also, though the main focus of the study was on Atlantic cyclones, they do then turn to the global situation toward the end, and conclude that there can be detected:

..an increase in average cyclone intensity, the number and occurrence days of very intense category 4 and 5 storms in most basins (Figure 9) and in tropical cyclone precipitation rates


Again, do you accept this conclusion from the same study you are basing your other claims on?
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Breaking Waves

Unread postby Whitefang » Mon 11 Jun 2018, 11:20:49

Paul B. on wavy action........surfers all over are bound to be thrilled :-D
Always look on the bright side of life :roll:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=osqmucGflcQ

In this video, and the last three I have gone into great detail on how wave energy from recent storms has the ability to chew up coastlines, including moving huge boulders weighing as much as 620 metric tons. Cities on coastlines around the world will not just suffer from the inexorable rise of global sea level, but will be pummelled by massive waves from huge intense storms on top of king tides on top of storm surge on top of land subsidence on top of rising sea levels from abrupt climate change.


Wave energy has gone up, abruptly alike Climate Change.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iqE8VWzSb0s

turns out that “Storms of our Grandchildren” are already here today. In fact these storms are already reconfiguring our coastlines. If you live in a coastal city you are likely aware that rising sea levels, large and intense storms with their associated storm surges, combined with king tides and perhaps even land subsidence are encroaching and damaging houses, streets, bridges, high-rises; in fact all infrastructure is threatened. The energy in recent storms is enormous, and has moved enormous boulders weighing as much as 620 tons in Ireland.


Part 1 out of 4.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby jawagord » Mon 11 Jun 2018, 15:00:02

dohboi wrote:Soooo, the article you are referencing is based on a NOAA study, one conclusion from which is:

...In the case of global mean surface temperature, the IPCC AR5 presents a strong body of scientific evidence that most of the global warming observed over the past half century is very likely due to human-caused greenhouse gas emissions.


Do you accept that conclusion, or only the ones that fit your preconceived notions?

https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warmin ... urricanes/

Also, though the main focus of the study was on Atlantic cyclones, they do then turn to the global situation toward the end, and conclude that there can be detected:

..an increase in average cyclone intensity, the number and occurrence days of very intense category 4 and 5 storms in most basins (Figure 9) and in tropical cyclone precipitation rates


Again, do you accept this conclusion from the same study you are basing your other claims on?


I accept and put more trust in Dr. Landsea's comment from being based on observation over the "strong body of evidence" jargon of the IPCC, which can only be based upon models as the observations do support the IPCC conclusions. So do you believe models constitute a "strong body of evidence" over actual observation? I do not.

“It’s very difficult to say how hurricanes are now versus 100 years ago. We’re still challenged today in knowing how strong a hurricane is, even in 2018,” said Landsea.

Landsea understands the climate is changing and the oceans are warming, but doesn’t see a direct link to the frequency or intensity of storms.
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Actual Observation

Unread postby Whitefang » Mon 11 Jun 2018, 15:33:49

Jawa, there is overwhelming evidence of intensifying storms, displacement of the biggest boulders were always thought to have been caused by rare tsunami's, now we are beginning to understand what abrupt CC means, we see boulders up to 600 tons moved by giant waves, this decade, now if you will.
Which is only the beginning, wait until next decade when the sea ice up North is gone which is very likely the point when TSHTF.
Actual observation, you can personally verify by looking at the pics, those of Ireland are amazing.....
Storms of grandchildren are here now, 2 generationsearly, say 50 years?
Like the sea ice would not be gone this century........a modelling mistake?


jawagord wrote:
dohboi wrote:Soooo, the article you are referencing is based on a NOAA study, one conclusion from which is:

...In the case of global mean surface temperature, the IPCC AR5 presents a strong body of scientific evidence that most of the global warming observed over the past half century is very likely due to human-caused greenhouse gas emissions.


Do you accept that conclusion, or only the ones that fit your preconceived notions?

https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warmin ... urricanes/

Also, though the main focus of the study was on Atlantic cyclones, they do then turn to the global situation toward the end, and conclude that there can be detected:

..an increase in average cyclone intensity, the number and occurrence days of very intense category 4 and 5 storms in most basins (Figure 9) and in tropical cyclone precipitation rates


Again, do you accept this conclusion from the same study you are basing your other claims on?


I accept and put more trust in Dr. Landsea's comment from being based on observation over the "strong body of evidence" jargon of the IPCC, which can only be based upon models as the observations do support the IPCC conclusions. So do you believe models constitute a "strong body of evidence" over actual observation? I do not.

“It’s very difficult to say how hurricanes are now versus 100 years ago. We’re still challenged today in knowing how strong a hurricane is, even in 2018,” said Landsea.

Landsea understands the climate is changing and the oceans are warming, but doesn’t see a direct link to the frequency or intensity of storms.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 11 Jun 2018, 19:59:21

Looks like jaw copied it without reading (or comprehending) it.

Again, based on observation, your study found an:

increase in:

• average cyclone intensity,

• the number and occurrence days of very intense category 4 and 5 storms in most basins (Figure 9)

• and in tropical cyclone precipitation rates


(my emphases and punctuation, in an attempt to help you with your apparent reading comprehension issues :) )

Global warming is, after all, well, global. So the behavior of cyclones in one particular basin is no more relevant to the global issues than a snowball thrown across the senate floor by some dimwit is to the general question of GW. :lol:
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby jawagord » Mon 11 Jun 2018, 21:21:08

dohboi wrote:Looks like jaw copied it without reading (or comprehending) it.

Again, based on observation, your study found an:

increase in:

• average cyclone intensity,

• the number and occurrence days of very intense category 4 and 5 storms in most basins (Figure 9)

• and in tropical cyclone precipitation rates


(my emphases and punctuation, in an attempt to help you with your apparent reading comprehension issues :) )

Global warming is, after all, well, global. So the behavior of cyclones in one particular basin is no more relevant to the global issues than a snowball thrown across the senate floor by some dimwit is to the general question of GW. :lol:


To be honest I've only read the bolded parts of the report, seems to confirm the observation vs model conjecture if I comprehend these sentences correctly?

In short, the historical Atlantic hurricane record does not provide compelling evidence for a substantial greenhouse warming-induced long-term increase.

the hurricane model also projects that the lifetime maximum intensity of Atlantic hurricanes will increase by about 5% during the 21st century
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 12 Jun 2018, 00:55:46

I get it, you're obsessed with the Atlantic.

Did you know that there are actually other places in the world where cyclones exist?

And that when assessing the global effects of a global phenomena, it is necessary to look at more than just one part of the globe?

Think about that for a few months or however long it takes for it to penetrate the old cerebellum...then get back to me...or don't...doesn't really matter

Ciao! :)
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby jawagord » Tue 12 Jun 2018, 07:05:38

dohboi wrote:I get it, you're obsessed with the Atlantic.

Did you know that there are actually other places in the world where cyclones exist?

And that when assessing the global effects of a global phenomena, it is necessary to look at more than just one part of the globe?

Think about that for a few months or however long it takes for it to penetrate the old cerebellum...then get back to me...or don't...doesn't really matter

Ciao! :)


Not obsessed with the Atlantic, the article says it is mostly about the Atlantic. The Cyclone predictions are from models again, which gets us back to observation vs GIGO models.

From your link:

The main focus of this web page is on Atlantic hurricane activity and global warming. However, an important question concerns whether global warming has or will substantially affect tropical cyclone activity in other basins.

Tropical cyclone rainfall rates will likely increase in the future due to anthropogenic warming rates will likely increase in the future due to anthropogenic warming and accompanying increase in atmospheric moisture content.Models project an increase on the order of 10-15% for rainfall rates averaged within about 100 km of the storm for a 2 degree Celsius global warming scenario.

Tropical cyclone intensities globally will likely increase on average (by 1 to 10% according to model projections for a 2 degree Celsius global warming). This change would imply an even larger percentage increase in the destructive potential per storm, assuming no reduction in storm size.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 12 Jun 2018, 08:38:37

Oh never mind. You've made it abundantly clear that you are only interested in data that confirms your position, however narrowly you have to look to find it.

I won't try to bother you with logic or reason any more, since you are obviously oblivious to such things.

Ciao! :)
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 13 Jun 2018, 08:13:14

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05324-5

observed tracking speeds have declined by up to 30% for some locations

When cyclones moves slower, it allows much more rain to fall on a particular location, just ask Houston! :?

More here:

“ … the weight of the evidence suggests that the thirty-year-old prediction of more intense and wetter tropical cyclones is coming to pass … ”

“The average location where the storms are reaching their peak intensity is also slowly migrating poleward … “

“ .. the coming decades are likely to bring hurricanes that intensify more rapidly … Rapid intensification, especially in the last 24 hours before landfall, leaves people less time to prepare for a hurricane’s impacts. And even people who know a storm is coming may not be ready for how much more intense the storm is when it arrives.”

“ … slower-moving hurricanes (those with a slower tracking speed as a whole) are being observed. (A slower storm will take longer to pass any given location along its track, and consequently will tend to do more damage.)

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05324-5

http://www.climatecentral.org/gallery/g ... hurricanes
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby Whitefang » Wed 13 Jun 2018, 14:29:24

https://robertscribbler.com/

Handy overview from RS......

Recent research by Stephan Rahmstorf and others shows that hurricanes are growing stronger due to human-caused climate change. Unfortunately, this is not the only destruction-enhancing impact. Due to changes in atmospheric circulation, the forward speed of hurricanes is also slowing down. Which makes their destructive effects last longer over a given region.


According to new research published by Nature and written by James Kossin, the forward speed of hurricanes in the tropics is slowing down. This slow-down is driven by a weakening of tropical atmospheric circulation. Such weakening has been identified by climate studies for decades and is associated with a warming climate.

As the Earth warms, the Hadley Cell expands and slows, the poles warm faster than the lower latitudes generating more blocking patterns in the middle latitudes, and the Walker Cell also slows down. The net effect is that steering currents for hurricanes are weaker, which reduces their forward speed.


Since storms are already increasing in intensity due to warming ocean surfaces, rainfall rates and wind speeds are on the rise. However, these much more powerful storms are becoming brutally slow. The net effect is a pretty terrible combination for cities and regions facing the climate change enhanced storms of today and tomorrow.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 06 Jul 2018, 06:15:39

Beryl

Not looking too bad as yet, at least for me. Taking aim on Dominica, again.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... 0#contents

Key Messages:

1. Due to its very small size, there is greater-than-usual
uncertainty in the analysis of Beryl's current intensity. Confidence
in the official intensity forecast is also much lower than normal.
Rapid changes in intensity, both up and down, that are difficult to
predict are possible during the next couple of days.

2. While Beryl is still to forecast to quickly weaken or dissipate
as a tropical cyclone on Monday before reaching the Lesser Antilles,
there will likely be some rain and wind impacts on those islands
early next week. Residents there should monitor products from their
local weather office for more information.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 06 Jul 2018, 14:53:02

Stay safe, Newf!!

Meanwhile:


https://www.newhistorian.com/monster-hu ... -ago/2970/


Donnelly and his team have made a remarkable discovery which widens our understanding of our planet’s climate. It also presents a stark warning for the future, if our climate keeps getting warmer. “We may need to begin planning for a category 3 hurricane landfall every decade or so rather than every 100 or 200 years.”


More on Beryl and Maria here: https://robertscribbler.com/2018/07/06/ ... ard-china/
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 08 Jul 2018, 12:15:05

Super Typhoon Maria now at 160 mph, headed for China;

looks like it's headed north of Taiwan but will be broken down a bit before landfall:

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ ... hoon-maria
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 10 Jul 2018, 18:33:22

As sure as c follows b, Chris if following Beryl:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nat ... 771440002/

Newf, I trust you're staying out of the tracks of these bad boys and girls: https://www.usatoday.com/pages/interact ... ker/#chris
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby vox_mundi » Fri 13 Jul 2018, 10:43:26

The World Has Never Seen a Category 6 Hurricane, But the Day May Be Coming

As a ferocious hurricane bears down on South Florida, water managers desperately lower canals in anticipation of 4 feet of rain.

Everyone east of Dixie Highway is ordered evacuated, for fear of a menacing storm surge. Forecasters debate whether the storm will generate the 200 mph winds to achieve Category 6 status. ...

Image

... "There's almost unanimous agreement that hurricanes will produce more rain in a warmer climate," said Adam Sobel, professor of applied physics at Columbia University and director of its Initiative on Extreme Weather and Climate. "There's agreement there will be increased coastal flood risk, at a minimum because of sea-level rise. Most people believe that hurricanes will get, on average, stronger. There's more debate about whether we can detect that already."
"If we had twice as many Category 5s—at some point, several decades down the line—if that seems to be the new norm, then yes, we'd want to have more partitioning at the upper part of the scale," Hall said. "At that point, a Category 6 would be a reasonable thing to do."

No one knows how strong they could get, as they're fueled by warmer ocean water. Timothy Hall, senior scientist at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, said top wind speeds of up to 230 mph could occur by the end of the century, if current global warming trends continue. That would be the strength of an F-4 tornado, which can pick up cars and throw them through the air (although tornadoes, because of their rapid changes of wind direction, are considered more destructive).
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 13 Jul 2018, 11:01:30

dohboi wrote:As sure as c follows b, Chris if following Beryl:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nat ... 771440002/

Newf, I trust you're staying out of the tracks of these bad boys and girls: https://www.usatoday.com/pages/interact ... ker/#chris


The remnants of Chris passed about 100 miles east of here last night. Gave us a good soaking and a little bit of wind. Further east got more wind but nothing extraordinary. Hunkered down on the boat with the heater going, cozy.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 13 Jul 2018, 14:55:34

Newf, thanks for the update. Good to hear that you and yours are safe!

Vox, great link.
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 23 Aug 2018, 09:27:53

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20 ... na/022000c

Typhoon Cimaron to pound western Japan, evacuation instructions issued

The tropical cyclone is forecasted to dump massive amounts of rain and bring intense gusts in the region, and local governments of areas in the typhoon's projected path issued evacuation advisories and instructions to residents hours before the storm's arrival. Many of the cities and towns were devastated by historic torrential rains and subsequent flooding and landslides in early July. Train and air traffic services were also suspended on Aug. 23 to avert possible damage caused by the season's 20th typhoon.

Flooding and landslides are feared in areas where the typhoon is expected to hit, and the JMA has advised residents to be on their guard against such natural disasters. In a message on Aug. 23, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe called for early evacuations and for people to take measures to limit damage.

The amount of rain forecast to fall over the 24-hour period ending 6 p.m. on Aug. 24 is 500 millimeters in the Shikoku and Kinki regions, and 400 millimeters in the Tokai region in central Japan. Rainfall is expected to reach 250 millimeters in the Kanto-Koshin region in the eastern part of the country and 200 millimeters in the Chugoku region in the west.

In the Chugoku and Tokai regions, it is predicted that the total amount of rain to fall in localized downpours since the arrival of the previous typhoon, Soulik, could reach 1,000 millimeters.


Meanwhile:

Hurricane Lane is the biggest weather threat to Hawaii in decades

https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/23/us/hurri ... index.html

Sooo, a lot of activity in the Pacific right now!
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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2018

Unread postby vox_mundi » Wed 29 Aug 2018, 16:51:56

'Weather Models Have Flipped the Switch': Hurricane Season Coming to Life in the Atlantic

Image

Hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico is forecast to ramp up over the next couple of weeks. "Weather models have flipped the switch on the Atlantic hurricane season and see multiple areas of development possible starting mainly this weekend," weather.us meteorologist Ryan Maue said.

One storm could spin up in the Caribbean over the next couple of days and affect Florida over the Labor Day weekend. Looking further ahead, "there is the potential for two or three tropical features spinning over the Atlantic by the second weekend in September," AccuWeather meteorologist Dan Kottlowski said.
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Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late.
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