Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

BAU is the final nail in the coffin" .

Re: BAU is the final nail in the coffin" .

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 29 May 2018, 18:19:42

Outcast, if you can detach yourself a moment from focusing on timelines and failed predictions, can you appreciate the weight of available data and facts that lend creedence to a true disaster unfolding. It is as others have said NOT an event but an unfolding process. Kaiser is right the preliminary stages of Collapse began already. You could say as early as 10K years ago with the advent of agriculture.

The point is that while predictions may be repeatedly wrong, that does not nullify the underlying soundness of the data and extropolations from that data that can be reached
"We are mortal beings doomed to die
User avatar
onlooker
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9426
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 12:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: BAU is the final nail in the coffin" .

Unread postby Cog » Tue 29 May 2018, 22:14:22

So, we have been collapsing for ten thousand years? Woe is us. That steamroller of doom will be catching us any day now.

Image
User avatar
Cog
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 10554
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Metro-East Illinois

Re: BAU is the final nail in the coffin" .

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 29 May 2018, 22:54:54

The point is that while predictions may be repeatedly wrong, that does not nullify the underlying soundness of the data and extrapolations from that data that can be reached


And a broken watch is correct twice a day, a blind pig sometimes will actually find an acorn. If one waits long enough almost anything and everything will happen. The whole point of predictions is the timeline, if you can't get that right then the entire effort is pretty much worthless IMO.
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 6040
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 02:00:00

Re: BAU is the final nail in the coffin" .

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 30 May 2018, 00:02:16

onlooker wrote:The point is that while predictions may be repeatedly wrong, that does not nullify the underlying soundness of the data and extropolations from that data that can be reached

Nonsense, like most of your other economic opinions. Pretending one can be repeatedly (basically constantly) wrong for years and even decades, but that one's underlying premise is "sound" is pretty much loony bin territory.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 5560
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: BAU is the final nail in the coffin" .

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 30 May 2018, 05:36:30

I disagree Outcast.

Humans have a terrible time dealing with time. Experts get ahead of themselves when they make firm predictions but it does not mean the underlying premise is wrong.

If someone knew me when I was a senior in high school they might likely, and with good reason, have predicted I would die by 30. I’m 67 and still kicking, but die I will, unfortunately.

It’s like that with CC and the consequences of over population, and our financial system. The fundamentals can be thwarted for some period and folks are silly to make firm predictions. But the water will rise, population will decline, the bubble will bust, and the sun will rise.
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 10693
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: US East Coast

Re: BAU is the final nail in the coffin" .

Unread postby Ibon » Wed 30 May 2018, 06:46:03

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
onlooker wrote:The point is that while predictions may be repeatedly wrong, that does not nullify the underlying soundness of the data and extropolations from that data that can be reached

Nonsense, like most of your other economic opinions. Pretending one can be repeatedly (basically constantly) wrong for years and even decades, but that one's underlying premise is "sound" is pretty much loony bin territory.


How about centuries or millennium. I am thinking of religions. Most humans do choose to believe in bullshit actually.
Our resiliency resembles an invasive weed. We are the Kudzu Ape
blog: http://blog.mounttotumas.com/
website: http://www.mounttotumas.com
User avatar
Ibon
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 6422
Joined: Fri 03 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Volcan, Panama

Re: BAU is the final nail in the coffin" .

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 30 May 2018, 11:48:43

Ibon wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
onlooker wrote:The point is that while predictions may be repeatedly wrong, that does not nullify the underlying soundness of the data and extropolations from that data that can be reached

Nonsense, like most of your other economic opinions. Pretending one can be repeatedly (basically constantly) wrong for years and even decades, but that one's underlying premise is "sound" is pretty much loony bin territory.


How about centuries or millennium. I am thinking of religions. Most humans do choose to believe in bullshit actually.

Completely fair point.

I was focusing on the actual Cassandra fast crash doomer short term prediction BS that I have personally witnessed here and in general since 1985ish, when I started paying attention.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 5560
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: BAU is the final nail in the coffin" .

Unread postby Cog » Wed 30 May 2018, 14:59:54

Personification of Gaia and worshipping it has no more validity than the various religions that you despise Ibon.
User avatar
Cog
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 10554
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Metro-East Illinois

Re: BAU is the final nail in the coffin" .

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 30 May 2018, 19:25:04

Newfie wrote:I disagree Outcast.

Humans have a terrible time dealing with time. Experts get ahead of themselves when they make firm predictions but it does not mean the underlying premise is wrong.

Humans have a terrible time dealing with almost everything, re the future. And the longer the term, the worse it gets. Example: how terrible people are generally about properly preparing for retirement, even though if people live long enough, it's a certainty they'll need savings to live decently in their old age.

This is why science is so much better to use as a tool than intuition or wishful thinking. I'm not willing to turn back the clock on that just because science has flaws.

Economics, whether the doomers like it or not, is the best science we have on understanding wealth, prosperity, and how behavior influences that.

And, as I've said before, I'm actually a pessimist in the long term. I'm objecting to the constant predictions of near term doom re seemingly every Cassandra story/blog fast crash doomers can find, which are nonsense given the timeframe of the predictions. And then it's just repeat and repeat, no matter how often they're wrong.

That's a MUCH different thing, IMO, than someone (like me) concerned about the long term effects of BAU growth, ignoring AGW, etc. -- but willing to try to look at economics objectively and see the reality that the long term problems don't mean short (or even intermediate) term economic doom is in our face (endlessly).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 5560
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: BAU is the final nail in the coffin" .

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 30 May 2018, 19:38:22

In that light we are saying much the same thing.

I don’t put much stock in economics, at least not the pap we the people are fed to believe about how well the “system” works.
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 10693
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: US East Coast

Re: BAU is the final nail in the coffin" .

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 31 May 2018, 11:36:32

Newfie wrote:In that light we are saying much the same thing.

I don’t put much stock in economics, at least not the pap we the people are fed to believe about how well the “system” works.

The system is highly chaotic. How could it be otherwise if billions of relatively free (and often irrational) people are allowed to exercise choice?

The "system" overall, re BAU is a total mess and unsustainable.

So you don't believe in, say, GDP figures portraying economic health? Or you think they're relatively myopic because they ignore many of the basic underlying problems?

I suspect that overall, we aren't that far apart even if we differ greatly on some of the details. (It's too bad that so many folks want to go to Def. Con. 1 over various details -- life is too short!)
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 5560
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: BAU is the final nail in the coffin" .

Unread postby Cog » Fri 01 Jun 2018, 09:33:47

Jobs report better than expected. I guess that BAU has some more distance to go. LOL.

These are not the salad days for fast crash doomers.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/01/busi ... eport.html


■ 223,000 jobs were added last month. Wall Street economists had expected an increase of about 190,000, according to Bloomberg.

■ The unemployment rate was 3.8 percent, down from 3.9 percent in April and the lowest since early 2000.
■ Average earnings rose by 8 cents an hour and are up 2.7 percent over the past year.
The Takeaway

The American economy roared into overdrive last month, delivering the strongest job gains since February. The report underscored other recent signs of strength, like robust personal income and spending data reported earlier this week. The unemployment rate for May was at lows not seen since the heady days of the dot-com bubble.
User avatar
Cog
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 10554
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Metro-East Illinois

Re: BAU is the final nail in the coffin" .

Unread postby Cog » Fri 01 Jun 2018, 09:44:50

Black unemployment is the lowest ever. Not just for this president's term but EVER. But Trump is literally Hitler and wants to put blacks in the gas chamber. Or so I have been told right here on this board.
User avatar
Cog
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 10554
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Metro-East Illinois

Re: BAU is the final nail in the coffin" .

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Fri 01 Jun 2018, 10:35:57

Has it occurred to anybody else that having a POTUS who has an obvious case of foot-in-mouth disease, and who allows his animal nature to hang out in view of everyone, rather than concealing his faults and thoughts and activities, is not necessarily a bad thing?

It is completely possible that all presidents were just as nauseating as Donald Trump, and that they concealed this from us, and surrounded themselves with people who were also busily concealing their true animal natures. Isn't that even worse?
KaiserJeep 2.0, Neural Subnode 0010 0000 0001 0110 - 1001 0011 0011, Tertiary Adjunct to Unimatrix 0000 0000 0001

Resistance is Futile, YOU will be Assimilated.

Warning: Messages timestamped before April 1, 2016, 06:00 PST were posted by the unmodified human KaiserJeep 1.0
KaiserJeep
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5172
Joined: Tue 06 Aug 2013, 16:16:32
Location: California's Silly Valley

Re: BAU is the final nail in the coffin" .

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 01 Jun 2018, 10:47:50

KaiserJeep wrote:Has it occurred to anybody else that having a POTUS who has an obvious case of foot-in-mouth disease, and who allows his animal nature to hang out in view of everyone, rather than concealing his faults and thoughts and activities, is not necessarily a bad thing?

It is completely possible that all presidents were just as nauseating as Donald Trump, and that they concealed this from us, and surrounded themselves with people who were also busily concealing their true animal natures. Isn't that even worse?

If Donald Trump were truly an honest man, he'd also be a curious man one who admits he does not know things. Those characteristics go hand and hand. He would see the world for what it is. But he doesn't. He sees the world through an agenda. To win at all costs.

I have taken (in my retirement) to watching CNBC. I have noticed a a recent stock market cycle. The market crashes first thing Monday morning. The Pundits spend the rest of the day discussing the crash. It's minor, at most 2% and then the market corrects over the week climbing back up to 24,000. Rinse and Repeat.

This simple cycle is never mentioned. All sorts of phony extenuating causes are tossed out willy nilly. But never the truth. We all know the old adage. Folks who really understand the market, are not on TV blabbing about it. The whole thing is a con. Same with all of economics. The folks who really understand what makes money go around don't talk about it. They don't become media talking heads. They spend their time building businesses.
November 2016
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 27342
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: BAU is the final nail in the coffin" .

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Fri 01 Jun 2018, 13:56:53

Oddly enough a former office mate of mine, decided to leave the corporate world, mostly so that work would not interfere with his consumption of alcohol in any amount at any time. His substitute for work was day trading, which he pursued for two online hours a day five days a week. He made trades online after watching his regular couple of programs on a couple of business channels.

His income exceeded mine after a while. Then his liver gave out, and I lost track of him, after advising him to switch to weed and eat it rather than smoke it.
KaiserJeep 2.0, Neural Subnode 0010 0000 0001 0110 - 1001 0011 0011, Tertiary Adjunct to Unimatrix 0000 0000 0001

Resistance is Futile, YOU will be Assimilated.

Warning: Messages timestamped before April 1, 2016, 06:00 PST were posted by the unmodified human KaiserJeep 1.0
KaiserJeep
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5172
Joined: Tue 06 Aug 2013, 16:16:32
Location: California's Silly Valley

Re: BAU is the final nail in the coffin" .

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 01 Jun 2018, 14:04:02

"His income exceeded mine after a while. Then his liver gave out, and I lost track of him, after advising him to switch to weed and eat it rather than smoke it."

Sage advice :)

Get it? Sage? an herb
November 2016
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 27342
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Previous

Return to Environment, Weather & Climate

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 49 guests