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World Grain Status (merged)

Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 21 May 2018, 10:10:47

So kiwi, per your chart, oil production peaked 22 years ago and has been in pretty constant slide since.

How long should it take them to adapt? It's not like production plunged off a cliff. Extrapolating your chart, they should still have production in the ballpark of 50% of the peak.

Once again, it's like leaders never learn. Growing the population by leaps and bounds and not adapting to the decline of a major export product looks like a perfect recipe for financial problems.

https://tradingeconomics.com/egypt/population

Per Wiki, I see they also like to run constant substantial deficits.

So when the wheels come off, it's the first world's problem for not giving them enough aid?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 21 May 2018, 10:59:19

Maybe they will just start exporting “services”. :-D
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby vox_mundi » Wed 23 May 2018, 09:52:59

CRISPR-Edited Rice Produces Major Increased Grain Yield

A team of scientists from Purdue University and the Chinese Academy of Sciences has used CRISPR/Cas9 gene-editing technology to develop a variety of rice that produces 25-31 percent more grain and would have been virtually impossible to create through traditional breeding methods.

The CRISPR/Cas9 technology allows plant breeders to quickly and accurately snip portions of DNA out of a sequence, editing the DNA code. The method allowed Zhu's team to modify multiple genes at one time, something that would have taken decades to do with traditional methods without a guarantee that the resulting plants would have the desired characteristics.
"You couldn't do targeted mutations like that with traditional plant breeding. You'd do random mutations and try to screen out the ones you don't want," Bressan said. "It would have taken millions of plants. Basically, it's not feasible. This is a real accomplishment that could not have been done without CRISPR."

The improved rice plants created in these experiments come from a common research line. The next step is to use CRISPR/Cas9 to edit the same genes in elite varieties of rice to determine if those will also show similarly improved yield.
..."If this holds true for the varieties that farmers currently use, this big increase in yield would be very important," ... "It would really help produce a lot more grains to feed more people."

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Chunbo Miao et al. Mutations in a subfamily of abscisic acid receptor genes promote rice growth and productivity, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2018).


Genetically Modified 'Golden Rice' Falls Short On Lifesaving Promises

Heralded on the cover of Time magazine in 2000 as a genetically modified - GMO crop with the potential to save millions of lives in the Third World, Golden Rice is still years away from field introduction and even then, may fall short of lofty health benefits still cited regularly by GMO advocates, suggests a new study from Washington University in St. Louis.
... "The rice simply has not been successful in test plots of the rice breeding institutes in the Philippines, where the leading research is being done," Stone said. "It has not even been submitted for approval to the regulatory agency, the Philippine Bureau of Plant Industry"

Stone, an internationally recognized expert on the human side of global agricultural trends, was an early advocate for keeping an open mind about "humanitarian" GMO crops, such as Golden Rice.

He has also supported the development of a genetically modified strain of cassava, a starchy root crop eaten by subsistence farmers across much of Africa. Unfortunately, efforts to develop a genetically improved, more productive and disease-resistant strain of cassava also appear to be a long way from practical field introduction, he notes.

"Golden Rice was a promising idea backed by good intentions," Stone said. "In contrast to anti-GMO activists, I argued that it deserved a chance to succeed. But if we are actually interested in the welfare of poor children—instead of just fighting over GMOs—then we have to make unbiased assessments of possible solutions. The simple fact is that after 24 years of research and breeding, Golden Rice is still years away from being ready for release."

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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby vox_mundi » Fri 25 May 2018, 11:07:26

Increasing CO2 Levels Reduce Rice's Nutritional Value

Higher concentrations of carbon dioxide are associated with reductions in protein and multiple key nutrients in rice, according to a new field study by an international team of scientists

The study, published May 23 in Science Advances, showed for the first time that rice grown at concentrations of atmospheric CO2 expected by the end of this century has lower levels of four key B vitamins. The findings also support research from other field studies showing rice grown under higher CO2 concentrations has less protein, iron and zinc.

The researchers conducted the field study in China and Japan on 18 common strains of rice. Their results confirm previously reported declines in protein, iron and zinc in rice grown under atmospheric CO2 concentrations that scientists expect by the end of the 21st century. In addition, the paper reveals for the first time average declines in vitamins B1, B2, B5 and B9—vitamins essential to helping the body convert food into energy.

Average Vitamin B1 (thiamine) levels decreased by 17.1 percent; average Vitamin B2 (riboflavin) by 16.6 percent; average Vitamin B5 (pantothenic acid) by 12.7 percent; and average Vitamin B9 (folate) by 30.3 percent. The researchers reported no change in levels of Vitamin B6 or calcium, while Vitamin E levels increased for most strains.


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Rice is the primary source of food for more than 2 billion people. Decreases in the nutritional content of rice could have a disproportionate impact on health outcomes in the poorest rice-dependent countries.


High CO2 Makes Crops Less Nutritious

Crops grown in the high-CO2 atmosphere of the future could be significantly less nutritious, a new study published today in Nature suggests. Based on hundreds of experiments in the field, the work reveals a new challenge as society reckons with both rising carbon emissions and malnutrition in the future.
... "Rising global CO2 increases yield and decreases water use by crops, and this is often presented as one positive of atmospheric change," Long says. But the Nature study's "significant" finding suggests that higher-CO2 environments will mean less nutritional crops, so that "increased quantity is at the expense of quality."
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 26 May 2018, 08:45:10

The important to know fact isn't if some vitamin levels go down or up. The key information is, in a standard diet context do those vitamin level changes effect the health of the people consuming that food? To put it bluntly, the human body needs X of any particular vitamin in its diet and anything over X is not absorbed or used, it is excreted or broken down. In a few cases an extreme excess supply over X can actually cause as many problems as not getting the minimum necessary levels for perfect health.

So the question that should be asked is not, do levels change, but do the changed levels cause a deficiency in a population eating the tested crops in a context of their total dietary intake.
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 26 May 2018, 08:48:40

Tanada,
I guess you could overcome the define your by eating more. But I presume that would add to obesity?
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 26 May 2018, 09:21:52

In response to Tanada, one must be especially careful with fat soluble vitamins as they depend on fatty substances to break down. And of course, more than the slight needed amount of heavy metal intake can certainly compromise the body
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 26 May 2018, 09:42:34

Newfie wrote:Tanada,
I guess you could overcome the define your by eating more. But I presume that would add to obesity?


that isn't the question I am asking Newfie. The cited study talks about vitamins that were produced in less quantity by the specified set of tested rice strains. The biggest problem is it tries to sound scary by using relative statistics instead of overall stats. For example it says Vitamin X declined 30%, but it does not specify what the initial value was, what the final value was, nor if the effect was across every strain tested or just cherry picked from the one with the worst results. Unless you know what the final value of Vitamin X is (rather than it declines 30%) you have no way of knowing if a standard quantity of rice of that particular strain will supply the amount of Vitamin X your body needs as part of a balanced diet. On the one hand the quantity after that 30% decline might still fulfill all your basic needs for X. On the other hand Vitamin X may be common in other foods you regularly consume so its decline in that particular strain of rice may not matter to you at all in terms of nutrition. On the gripping hand, if you test multiple strains of rice you should report on the full spectrum of results, not just cherry pick the one that sounds the most dire to try and create an eye catching headline.
here is what I mean. the cited 'worst case' nutrient is Folate aka Vitamin B9 with a 30% decline in quantity in the strains of rice tested. Why is this significant to people eating the rice? in truth, it is irrelevant because Rice isn't even in the list of the 15 common foods people consume to get Folate in their balanced diet. Foods people consume rich in Vitamin B-9

But what, you say, about the other vitamins cited? Vitamin B-1 declined 17%, is that significant? Well the only grain in the top ten list for B-1 is Wheat, and it barely makes it on the list as 10th of 10. Foods people consume rich in Vitamin B-1

Okay how about B-2, it also declined about 17%? BUZZZZZZ wrong again, no grain is in the top ten list of foods people consume to get B-2 in their diets. B-2 top ten foods

Well they cited one more, surely they couldn't have made the whole scare mongering up right? Vitamin B-5 must be a vital nutrient most people get from Rice right? BUZZZZZ wrong again. Only one grain appears in the top ten foods people eat to get their daily dose of B-5 and the grain involved is Maize (or corn to Americans) not rice. B-5 top ten foods

The issue is not did the researches find an effect, they certainly did. The issue is, does that effect matter to human health? In this case the declines do not matter to human health because nobody lives on a diet consisting of pure rice, they live on diets where rice is one component of a swath of food items. What keeps people healthy is balanced nutrition not cherry picking data to try and find something that sounds scary to get people to click your links or buy your tabloid.
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 26 May 2018, 09:48:28

But what is true of rice is likely true of all those other food, T. I don't see why it wouldn't be.
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 26 May 2018, 10:31:06

dohboi wrote:But what is true of rice is likely true of all those other food, T. I don't see why it wouldn't be.


That's because you are thinking like a Vegan instead of like an Omnivore.

Why do people eat Rice? People eat rice to get calories and nutrients. The calories in the rice are not effected by changing CO2 levels. Some nutrient levels are changed downward, but the ones effected are not the main nutrients we consume rice to get in our diets.

If you want to claim that Legumes produce less protein in a CO2 rich environment then do a study showing that. People eat legumes (beans and peas) for two main components, starch and plant protein.

Even in the cited study of rice strains they admit that some vitamin profiles were either unchanged, or actually improved. This leads to the logical conclusion that you need to study all of the wide spectrum of commonly consumed foods to determine if the enriched CO2 environment changes their nutrient profile and if so in what manner. Once you know the answer to that you then need to see if you can create a balanced diet based on those same foods in an enriched CO2 environment by lowering the intake of some and increasing the intake of others to ensure the humans eating them are still receiving all their dietary requirements for good health.

Most vegetarian and vegan folks I have known or know now emphasize rice and beans as the cheapest way to get both the calories and protein they need for a healthy life, with leafy greens and vegetables added in for fiber and nutrients. All this study shows is that the nutrient profile of the tested strains of rice has changed, but the nutrients that went down are the ones you do not eat rice to receive in your diet anyhow. NOBODY eats rice to get their RDA of B-9 or the other cited B complex vitamins. You get most of them from eating leafy greens and tree nuts plus sometimes things like pumpkin and sunflower seeds. Show me a study demonstrating that these B complex vitamins also strongly decline in all the foods Vegetarians and Vegans eat to receive them as nutrition and I will tell you to go back to being an Omnivore. But first I will ask you if the changes make it impossible to get your full nutrient profile by simply substituting other plant foods you can access but do not commonly eat right now. For example Lambsquarters and Dandelion were both imported to North America by Europeans because they were common dietary foods that grew wild if given half a chance. Today in North America both plants are often seen as pests and great effort is made to kill or remove them. However both plants are quite densely packed with nutrients including the B-9 cited in the article on rice and unless both of them are extremely altered in those nutrient profiles by higher CO2 levels adding them back into a Vegan diet to make up for any loss in that nutrient from rice, which is a very minor contributor of it to begin with, erases the supposed problem completely. Yes, Vegan diets will have to change to still get all your RDA of nutrients. So what? Going vegan means you have already engaged in an extremely unnatural eating pattern for an animal that works best as an omnivore. Why freak out about a very minor additional change once you have gone as far as you have already?
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby kiwichick » Wed 30 May 2018, 14:32:02

the study shows a decline over multiple B vitamins , plus zinc and iron

it also shows a significant decline in protein

however the counter argument is that plant breeders will select the strains that perform better in a high CO2 environment

ultimately for many Asian countries .....and others....the south and Midwest of the USA, for example, ....and the southwest and south east of Australia, as another example, ....the biggest problems could be lack of water.....or too much...and/or heat stress
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby vox_mundi » Tue 12 Jun 2018, 10:06:54

Warmer Climate Will Dramatically Increase the Volatility of Global Corn Crops

Image

Corn, or maize, is the most widely grown crop in the world. Used in food, cooking oil, industrialized foods, livestock feed and even automobile fuel, the crop is one that both rich and poor people rely upon.

Research led by the University of Washington looks at what climate change will mean for global yields of this crop. The results show that warmer temperatures by the end of this century will reduce yields throughout the world, confirming previous research. But the study also shows dramatic increases in the variability of corn yields from one year to the next and the likelihood of simultaneous low yields across multiple high-producing regions, which could lead to price hikes and global shortages.

The study was published the week of June 11 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
"Previous studies have often focused on just climate and plants, but here we look at climate, food and international markets," said lead author Michelle Tigchelaar, a UW postdoctoral researcher in atmospheric sciences. "We find that as the planet warms, it becomes more likely for different countries to simultaneously experience major crop losses, which has big implications for food prices and food security."

In the wake of a recent UW study looking at the nutritional value of rice crops under climate change, this study addressed overall yields and price volatility of corn.

While most rice is used domestically, corn is traded on international markets. Four countries—U.S., Brazil, Argentina and the Ukraine—account for 87 percent of the global corn exports (China mostly produces for domestic use). Today the probability that all four exporters would have a bad year together, with yields at least 10 percent below normal, is virtually zero.

But results show that under 2 degrees Celsius warming, which is projected if we succeed in curbing greenhouse gas emissions, this risk increases to 7 percent. Under 4 degrees Celsius warming, which the world is on track to reach by the end of the century if current greenhouse gas emissions rates continue, there's an 86 percent chance that all four maize-exporting countries would simultaneously suffer a bad year.

"Even with optimistic scenarios for reduced emissions of greenhouse gases, results show that the volatility in year-to-year maize production in the U.S. will double by the middle of this century, due to increasing average growing season temperature," said co-author David Battisti, a UW professor of atmospheric sciences. "The same will be true in the other major maize-exporting countries. Climate change will cause unprecedented volatility in the price of maize, domestically and internationally."

Michelle Tigchelaar el al., "Future warming increases probability of globally synchronized maize production shocks," PNAS (2018)

If corn is used as a biofuel, then both food and fuel will be in short supply.

Predicted Environmental Changes Could Significantly Reduce Global Production of Vegetables

... If no action is taken to reduce the negative impacts on agricultural yields, the researchers estimate that the environmental changes predicted to occur by mid- to end-century in water availability and ozone concentrations would reduce average yields of vegetables and legumes by 35% and 9% respectively. In hot settings such as Southern Europe and large parts of Africa and South Asia, increased air temperatures would reduce average vegetable yields by an estimated 31%.


Rising CO2 May Increase Dangerous Weather Extremes, Whatever Happens to Global Temperatures
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 30 Jun 2018, 20:27:36

The most important grain crops produce less nutritious grain with higher levels of CO2

https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... n-in-food/
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 01 Jul 2018, 19:37:03

Friday's close had soybeans at ten percent less then they were a year ago and Corn at seven percent less. This is a big deal for America's farmers and the Trump administration needs to close these trade negotiations, or trade wars if you prefer, quickly and with a positive result if they want to carry the farm belt in the midterms or 2020.
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby M_B_S » Tue 03 Jul 2018, 03:08:00

Germanys farmers are suffering while a massiv drought hits hard:
https://www.agrarheute.com/markt/futter ... app-546089



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Germany regions could no more feed its animals ...with enough hay and corn

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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby M_B_S » Thu 05 Jul 2018, 01:52:57

VERY HOT

WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — With world wheat consumption higher than production for the first time since 2012-13, prices are on the rise, according to a U.S. Wheat Associates’ market analyst....

http://www.world-grain.com/articles/new ... 5%7D&cck=1
********************
Consumption > Production (virtual)

What do you think is this the new normal from now on @ 411 ppm CO2 and 1850 ppb?!

=>
You can only eat what was harvested.
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby M_B_S » Tue 17 Jul 2018, 06:08:15

https://www.agweb.com/article/europes-h ... s-harvest/

Europe's Heatwave Is Ruining This Year's Harvest
JULY 16, 2018 02:21 PM


(Bloomberg) --

Looking out over his parched fields south of Berlin, dairy and grains farmer Thomas Gaebert is wishing for rains to save his crops after relentless hot weather.

He’s one of many farmers battling for survival after a heatwave and drought swept across northern parts of the continent, damaging crops from wheat to barley. Many German growers could go bankrupt if they suffer another crop failure, and too much rain in France is set to reduce output there. All combined, it’s shaping up to be the bloc’s smallest grains harvest in six years.

“It looks like a desert out there,” Gaebert said of his farm in Trebbin. His colleagues, who have been farming for 40 years, say they’ve never seen anything like this.

Gaebert stands to lose a third of his usual wheat harvest and more than half his rapeseed output after heat and a lack of rain withered plants. He’s worried he won’t have enough of his own grain to feed his 2,500 cows, nor is he insured against the potential losses from the hot weather.

The situation is so bad in Germany -- temperatures exceeded 30 degrees Celsius (86 Fahrenheit) for much of May and June -- that many farmers are destroying crops rather than attempting to harvest them, said Joachim Rukwied, president of farmers’ association DBV. Crop failures in the EU’s No. 2 grains grower, on top of last year’s poor harvest, could bankrupt many growers, German agricultural cooperatives group DRV warned last week.

“Several of our members urgently need help from the government,” said Henning Ehlers, the head of the DRV.

Those lucky enough to collect a decent harvest could benefit from higher prices. Wheat traded in Paris has rallied 17 percent this year, heading for the first annual gain since 2012, also helped by concerns about crops from Russia to North America. With world output set to drop for the first time in six years, that’s eroding a glut which sent Chicago prices tumbling almost 60 percent from a 2012 peak.

Here’s how crops are being affected across the EU:

Baked Britain and Poland
The U.K.’s hottest summer in four decades hurt wheat crops more than normal because a wet and late winter hindered root development, leaving plants more vulnerable to damage from summer dryness. In Poland, more than 66,000 farms spanning 1.2 million hectares (3 million acres) have been hit by drought, the Agriculture Ministry said.

“The crop losses will be quite substantial,” said Wojtek Sabaranski, a Warsaw-based analyst at Sparks Polska. Northwestern parts of the country have been affected most, he said.

Baltic Disaster
East of Poland, the damage to agriculture has prompted Lithuania and Latvia to declare a national natural disaster or state of emergency.

The past few days have brought some rains to the Baltics and Poland. Some showers will fall across northern Europe this week, but they’ll be fairly light and probably won’t ease dryness enough, said Kyle Tapley, a senior agricultural meteorologist at Radiant Solutions.

Drenched France
It’s wheat output in France, the EU’s top grower, that’s come as the biggest surprise. While warm and wet weather initially sparked calls for the best harvest in years, that soon changed. Too much rain and not enough sun resulted in wheat with fewer grains, and will mean lower yields, according to Strategie Grains.

“The situation is not as brilliant as we had imagined,” said Gabriel Omnes, an analyst at the French consultant. The company slashed its outlook for the country’s wheat crop by 4.6 million metric tons in the past month.

German Dust
Back in Germany, Gaebert still doesn’t know how he’ll feed his cattle and his fields have become so dusty that it’ll be a challenge to sow seeds for next year’s harvest. In the past few weeks, Germany was forced to import feed wheat from as far away as Romania, said Hendrik Manzke, a broker at Amme & Mueller GmbH.

“I hope the rain comes soon,” Gaebert said. “It’s a real threat to our business.”



Copyright 2018, Bloomberg
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Germany could not feed itself so why is Merkel inviting "Millions" ?!

That is absolut stupid policy => WAR!

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/energy ... -harvest-0
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 17 Jul 2018, 16:57:38

Try picking up a copy of “Taste of War.”

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B005GSZZBU/re ... TF8&btkr=1
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby M_B_S » Wed 25 Jul 2018, 03:24:02

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germ ... SKBN1KE1F3

JULY 24, 2018 / 1:26 PM / UPDATED 14 HOURS AGO
Drought could cut German supplies of potatoes for French fries
Reuters Staff



HAMBURG (Reuters) - A drought and heat wave in Europe this summer could cause a shortage of potatoes big enough for industrial production of French fries, a German industry group warned on Tuesday....
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German "Bauern Präsident" is calling for emergeny to help our farmers ...

Jaja Merkels "human" politicy to invite millions of new eater to Germany is total stupidity better crazyness

> 200 people/km²
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Dont think imports are saving allways the day .....

Ukraine wheat harvest, exports to fall on drought: analyst
Reuters Reuters•July 24, 2018
KIEV (Reuters) - UkrAgroConsult on Tuesday cut its forecast for Ukraine's 2018/19 crop year wheat harvest and exports due to a severe drought across the country during spring and the first half of summer.

The agriculture consultancy reduced its wheat harvest forecast by 3.1 percent to 24.7 million tonnes, and exports to 15.5 million tonnes from 16 million tonnes forecast in June.

The consultancy, however, raise its forecast for this year's maize harvest to 27.3 million tonnes from the previous estimate of 26.6 million tonnes. The 2018/19 maize exports forecast remained unchanged at 21 million tonnes, it said.

(Reporting by Pavel Polityuk; Editing by Sunil Nair)
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 25 Jul 2018, 21:02:37

I was just commenting to my spouse this last weekend that the last time Europe experienced a real famine was 1945-46 and it has been even longer for North America. I think the next time we have an honest famine a lot of people are going to lose their marbles as they have no concept that such an event is even possible.
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