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THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 03 Apr 2018, 12:26:03

Plantagenet wrote:

Get it now?

Cheers!

????

Apparently you finally do.

See, it's not that hard to admit you made a mistake / got a little carried away, and tell the truth. Thank you.

(I make mistakes. But when I realize I have, or someone points it out to me with facts/data, I try to cheerfully admit it).

If we can deal with facts or at least what multiple mainstream news sources are reporting, then we, as a community, can have much more productive conversations about events in the news.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 03 Apr 2018, 12:29:01

Plantagenet wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote: you're either senile, or a liar.....


Gosh...you sure are all wee-wee'd up about this.

Before you get all self-righteous, consider that by your own standard you yourself are either senile or a liar because you incorrectly claim in your post above I didn't link to credible sources. In fact I linked to credible news reports repeatedly in my posts about the Tesla crash.

But sadly, here, you're just lying again.

I said you hadn't posted a credible link on ONE SPECIFIC ITEM, but you twist everything like shorty. I never said you aren't linking to any credible sources about anything re this story -- ONLY your false claim about the severity of the crash.

Sad. Please. Seriously. Stop that.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 12 Apr 2018, 11:03:13

A massive, 'semi-infinite' trove of rare-earth metals has been found in Japan

Researchers have found hundreds of years' worth of rare-earth materials underneath Japanese waters — enough to supply to the world on a "semi-infinite basis," according to a study published in Nature Publishing Group's Scientific Reports.

...

Japan started looking after China cut off supplies

The discovery of the deposits could pit Japan against China to become the world's largest producer of the materials, The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday.

Not a done deal yet, but a sign of what can happen when there is a "shortage" of a natural resource. When financial incentives exist to look for more, more can often be found, or better ways of processing, recycling it, etc.

Doomers keep saying that there are far too few rare earth metals to sustain an EV revolution. I continue to call BS on that, as this just adds to significant supplies already known in various parts of the world (even if they're not often super-convenient spots. Kind of reminds me of crude oil and fracking it).

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/12/japan-r ... cific.html
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby StarvingLion » Fri 13 Apr 2018, 11:47:07

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
A massive, 'semi-infinite' trove of rare-earth metals has been found in Japan

Researchers have found hundreds of years' worth of rare-earth materials underneath Japanese waters — enough to supply to the world on a "semi-infinite basis," according to a study published in Nature Publishing Group's Scientific Reports.

...

Japan started looking after China cut off supplies

The discovery of the deposits could pit Japan against China to become the world's largest producer of the materials, The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday.

Not a done deal yet, but a sign of what can happen when there is a "shortage" of a natural resource. When financial incentives exist to look for more, more can often be found, or better ways of processing, recycling it, etc.

Doomers keep saying that there are far too few rare earth metals to sustain an EV revolution. I continue to call BS on that, as this just adds to significant supplies already known in various parts of the world (even if they're not often super-convenient spots. Kind of reminds me of crude oil and fracking it).

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/12/japan-r ... cific.html


OMG, now Outcast believes there will be a Klondike-Gold Rush equivalent for Rare Earths. 8 billion broke people will start panning for RE's in the local mines.

Outcast, like 99.9999% of the world believes the peak oil problem is simply transportation. When the cars appeared on the markets, men and women started screwing in the back seats and the graphic below was the result. No, the problem is that oil is a hard currency and without you are flat broke. There isn't going to be a RE Currency to save that population Pump and Dump.

Outcast has conveniently removed the prefix 'autonomous' to "EV Revolution". The Establishment certainly isn't interested in EV car ownership when everyone is broke from lack of claim on dwindling oil reserves.

Autonomous EV's are a martial law device. When a suicide car bomber goes straight toward you, the only option is killing the driver so control is lost and the vehicle swerves away. With no driver, its impossible to stop an explosive laded autonomous EV. When everyone is broke and the food truck is full of sawdust, its gonna have to be filled with explosives or else its Stalingrad '43 in every one of the 5000 cities in the world.

Face it, "renewables" and autonomous EV's are a war machine...AGAINST YOU!...when your stomach starts growling.

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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Fri 13 Apr 2018, 14:07:07

Damn, I wish you hadn't said that online. Please consider editing it away if possible. Don't feed the crazies of the world.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 13 Apr 2018, 14:47:00

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
A massive, 'semi-infinite' trove of rare-earth metals has been found in Japan

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/12/japan-r ... cific.html



This would seem to validate Tesla's move to use a PM switched-reluctance motor in the Model 3. I was wondering what that would mean long-term if they start churning out millions but the crustal abundance of these elements appears to be higher than previous estimates.

Good news, although the industry can certainly get by with AC induction motors if necessary.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 13 Apr 2018, 15:25:26

asg70 wrote:Good news, although the industry can certainly get by with AC induction motors if necessary.

Agreed. Economic alternatives (even if the prices may be somewhat higher) and more supply of natural resources than previously thought has to be good news for anyone other than those with a "prove fast crash is imminent" agenda.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 13 Apr 2018, 15:29:31

KaiserJeep wrote:Damn, I wish you hadn't said that online. Please consider editing it away if possible. Don't feed the crazies of the world.

1). What did I say that was objectively or even reasonably wrong?

2). Since when do we worry about SL's rantings as meaningful contributions to anything remotely approaching serious, substantive debate on such issues as this?


Seriously, if I said something wrong or questionable, or interpreted something incorrectly, I'm more than happy to consider editing away or fixing something I said. But NOT because, as usual, SL posts another random screed.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby baha » Fri 13 Apr 2018, 17:49:14

I'm with SL on this one :) I really don't want a bunch of mad robot cars running around. With 400 volt DC batteries and jumper cables. I think the public will like it so I am still invested. But not ME. I like my transistor radio :)

Maybe we should secure Facebook first :)

Am I crazy? Or just old fashioned?
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 13 Apr 2018, 18:46:52

baha wrote:I'm with SL on this one :) I really don't want a bunch of mad robot cars running around. With 400 volt DC batteries and jumper cables. I think the public will like it so I am still invested. But not ME. I like my transistor radio :)

Maybe we should secure Facebook first :)

Am I crazy? Or just old fashioned?

Why is it that people keep equating electric cars with fully autonomous cars?

Is it because Tesla is trying to automate their electric cars?

We don't even have any idea yet when FULLY autonomous cars (unfenced) might be deemed good enough to fully turn loose on the public. Security might well be one of the issues which needs to be fully defined and regulated.

OTOH, the main issue for making the vast majority of cars electric is making the technology good enough to be sufficiently economical, given the level of performance required.

(We could have a world where EV's dominate, without fully AV's being allowed, much less common -- since Musk marketing promises, etc. don't count).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby StarvingLion » Fri 13 Apr 2018, 20:12:31

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
baha wrote:I'm with SL on this one :) I really don't want a bunch of mad robot cars running around. With 400 volt DC batteries and jumper cables. I think the public will like it so I am still invested. But not ME. I like my transistor radio :)

Maybe we should secure Facebook first :)

Am I crazy? Or just old fashioned?

Why is it that people keep equating electric cars with fully autonomous cars?

Is it because Tesla is trying to automate their electric cars?

We don't even have any idea yet when FULLY autonomous cars (unfenced) might be deemed good enough to fully turn loose on the public. Security might well be one of the issues which needs to be fully defined and regulated.

OTOH, the main issue for making the vast majority of cars electric is making the technology good enough to be sufficiently economical, given the level of performance required.

(We could have a world where EV's dominate, without fully AV's being allowed, much less common -- since Musk marketing promises, etc. don't count).


Its obvious when Autonomous Ev's will hit the "market"; that is, when everything shuts down in the TOTAL COLLAPSE when the Permian craps out and The Legacy Oil Field Giants go into Terminal Cliff-Like decline about 5 years from now. I call it The Oil Apocalypse. I'm not the poster named MASTERMIND but this guy has detailed TOTAL COLLAPSE perfectly. That first phase of the collapse, Tyranny and Lockdown will be when the autonomous EV's will be launched like an invasion force when few other vehicles will be on the road.

http://peakoil.com/production/lack-of-i ... oil-supply

MASTERMIND on Wed, 11th Apr 2018 9:37 pm

prediction

Financial catastrophe resulting from resource depletion and a debasement of value of fiat currencies. Then a 3-month window of tyranny and government lockdown on citizens followed by a 3-month window of absolute carnage and death. Then, a period of about 6 months of slow die-off and that’s pretty much that. Oh, and starting sometime within the next 5 years or so. My prediction.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby kublikhan » Fri 13 Apr 2018, 20:31:35

baha wrote:I'm with SL on this one :)
Ok. We will have a rubber room prepared for you as well. SL already has a long standing reservation :)
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 13 Apr 2018, 22:33:25

Outcast_Searcher wrote:We could have a world where EV's dominate, without fully AV's being allowed


Yep. People forget that Tesla was sort of late to the game of pursuing autonomy. I think Google started researching it first and then Musk had an (oh, sh*t, I better jump on this) moment.

The reverse is also true. We could see fleets of autonomous gas cars while EVs continue to flounder.

The world is a complicated place, of course.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sun 15 Apr 2018, 16:46:40

If recent stories about battery longevity are anything to go by, then EVs will have a brighter future than some would have us believe.
Tesla battery degradation at less than 10% after over 160,000 miles, according to latest data
https://electrek.co/2018/04/14/tesla-ba ... tion-data/

The trend line currently suggests that the average battery pack could cycle through over 300,000 km (186,000) before coming close to 90% capacity.


Battery degradation is often a big concern for new electric vehicle buyers. To a certain degree, the Nissan Leaf might be to blame since it had a lot of issues in that regard, which is why Nissan has a much more comprehensive battery capacity warranty now.


IMHO this is an import metric that will decides which electric car companies do well in the future.
Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 15 Apr 2018, 22:01:50

dolanbaker wrote:If recent stories about battery longevity are anything to go by, then EVs will have a brighter future than some would have us believe.
Tesla battery degradation at less than 10% after over 160,000 miles, according to latest data
https://electrek.co/2018/04/14/tesla-ba ... tion-data/

...

IMHO this is an import metric that will decides which electric car companies do well in the future.

I completely agree. This is one of the critical pieces I was waiting on.

Hopefully industry standard will be more like Tesla and the Bolt are looking and NOT how Nissan is doing it (with no battery cooling system on either the latest Leaf and abysmal results for the Leaf thus far -- I'm seeing a LOT of doubts about buying a LEAF (vs leasing it for 3 years, for example)).

To me, the last thing I want to do after 10 years with a car is replace a battery that costs many, many thousand dollars. (Of courses, battery prices may come way down -- but batteries might get more capable (like charging faster, much more energy dense, or being able to run "hard" without too many heat problems) vs. getting radically cheaper -- depending on what the majority of customers want.)
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 16 Apr 2018, 09:30:36

baha wrote:I really don't want a bunch of mad robot cars running around.


How is that different from a bunch of regular cars running around? They crash into each other and into crowds and buildings with alarming regularity. People always adapt to whatever the status quo is and it's change they fear the most.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 16 Apr 2018, 10:03:43

“How is that different from a bunch of regular cars running around?” Welcome to Houston on a weekend. LOL. Last time I saw the stat Houston has become the DWI accident capital of the country. And what has become even more alarming: drunks hitting cops cars while they have their emergency lights flashing. How drunk do you have to be to not see a cop car stopped at an intersection in front of you with all those blue and red lights flashing? LOL.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby StarvingLion » Mon 16 Apr 2018, 12:02:27

The Intellectual Dishonesty on this thread is STAGGERING.

When will you people admit there is no electricity available to charge EV's? The system operators are shouting that they cannot even keep the power on.

Intermittency can never be solved.
No new nuclear plants will ever be built.
Ponzi Gas is constantly going bankrupt.

Any Power System must satisfy these requirements:

1. Cannot have any fuel input
2. Must NOT be intermittent
3. Must last for decades with literally no maintenance.

All you dreamers have left is SPACE SOLAR. where you must conquer gravity and other show stopper technical issues.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space-based_solar_power

Admit it, you are hopelessly DOOMED.
Last edited by StarvingLion on Mon 16 Apr 2018, 12:42:50, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 16 Apr 2018, 12:28:23

asg70 wrote:
baha wrote:I really don't want a bunch of mad robot cars running around.


How is that different from a bunch of regular cars running around? They crash into each other and into crowds and buildings with alarming regularity. People always adapt to whatever the status quo is and it's change they fear the most.


Yup. Baha, if you're objecting to the (thus far) rather poorly planned mishmash of regulations re AV's, then I'll agree that government needs to get in front of this, do what it was elected and set up to do and LEAD on this, and let the public and AV makers/testers know what acceptable legal and safety standards are -- VERY CLEARLY, then I agree with your concept.

I'd word it differently -- something like "I don't want a poorly regulated patchwork of AV's running around on a half-baked framework of loose or ill designed standards".

However, with enough testing, the overall standard should be relative safety. Once it's conclusively proven that AV's are CLEARLY superior to human drivers, and measurable by some sort of objective standard, then net, they're saving lives and money. (This is a challenge. When these things are being modified frequently re software, for example -- how do we ensure they're not being made less safe? How do we prevent catastrophic bugs from being beamed to a fleet of Tesla's, for example? Today, I don't think government is handling this at ALL? How about serious government tesing and certification requirements for software changes -- BEFORE they're released to the public, for example?)

Now, should regulations include things like serious security, to ensure it's not feasible for terrorists or smart teenagers or criminals generally to electronically hijack AV's for fun, mayhem, and profit? Of course -- which is an example of why I strongly support some seriously considered standards and regulations which look ahead and take AV's and their risks seriously.

But just blindly claiming that AV's are "worse" because we're not used to them or are uncomfortable with them, regardless of what data and safeguards exist, is an unreasonable position.

If we took that position with technology generally, we'd generally be a thousand or more years back in technology. (That would be better re things like AGW, but it's clearly not the way the world works).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 16 Apr 2018, 13:53:36

dolanbaker wrote:If recent stories about battery longevity are anything to go by, then EVs will have a brighter future than some would have us believe.
Tesla battery degradation at less than 10% after over 160,000 miles, according to latest data
https://electrek.co/2018/04/14/tesla-ba ... tion-data/

Meaningless hoo-ha lol. The so-called 'data' (cough cough cough) collected in the Netherlands 'study' (cough cough cough) was actually extracted from the car's own battery-management algorithms, part of the Tesla's so-called 'Autonomous Driving System' (cough cough cough). Not from actual driving data.

The same 'Autonomous Driving System' (cough cough cough) that swooned and dove in when confronted with a large white semi truck . . . when it should have just pulled out :( :shock:

The degradation claims come from the estimated range in miles/km as shown on the display screen. This is not a reliable indication of the battery health.

In the past the range estimate has shown 0 km (@3:20) after an hour of low voltage charging or shut down with 14 km left.

A good measure is to actually drive the cars until they quit, but that's not what's been done here. Without Tesla open sourcing their code there's no way to know how big the hidden reserve is, or if it is reduced over time to keep the normal estimated range up, or if the range calculation included driving habits, or even if the range estimate has been changed by OTA updates.


Tesla batteries retain more than 90% capacity past 160,000 miles, informal study shows
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