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Texas crude oil production reaches 3 million barrels/day

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Declining Production in Texas

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 06 Jul 2016, 01:42:58

Adam - "Are you saying you don't want to claim SOME of the credit for the US becoming the world's largest natural producer, " No...no credit at all. Which is why I would have no problem accepting anyone's estimate of XXX billions of bbls ofvproven oil reserves or be equally satisfied in accepting someone else's estimate of 10% of those XXX billion bbls of proven oil reserves.

Honestly, I really don't care how much proven oil is or isn't out there in Texas, the USA or the entire world. That's exactly what I mean when I say I don't have a dog in the fight. Which also doesn't automatically mean I'm correct. Just means I'm not motivated to come up with either an optimistic or pessimistic answer. Because I REALLY, REALLY DON'T CARE WHAT THE ANSWER IS just as long as it's based on solid evidence. Really, all I care about is how much oil I find and the profit margin. As I've said numerous times: we in the oil patch are not a band of brothers. I don't care in the least if XOM or any other company dries up and disappears. Nor do I care if our citizens have enough affordable energy in the future. I'm not responsible for either situation... those are someone else's problems. I take care of my problems. Others need to fix theirs.

I'm not my brother's keeper. Especially if he doesn't understand what he's doing and f*cks up his life as a result. LOL.

BTW: mentioning the name of a formation in the Permian Basin (or anywherer erlse, for that matter) doesn't prove sh*t about reserve potential. Show me the maps, proposed well locations, economic analysis including cost and oil prices, detailed spacial reservoir analysis and then we'll have something to discuss. This he said/she said bullish*t is wasting everyone's time. I've worked four decades in a world populated with detailed data...not hyperbole. LOL.
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Re: Declining Production in Texas

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 06 Jul 2016, 09:32:01

How can you be sure this environment is not a dearth, a lack of demand?

If it was a lack of demand you would have seen demand decrease whereas what has actually happened is demand has steadily increased but was outpaced by increasing supply in early 2014. Although the gap is gradually closing as fewer new wells are drilled and natural declines take command the picture is still supply higher than demand…..hence the term glut.

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Re: Declining Production in Texas

Unread postby PeakOiler » Wed 06 Jul 2016, 13:25:32

rockdoc123 wrote:
Yes, I saw the TRC's website and also posted the link above, but TRC gives annual amounts, not monthly rates like the EIA gives in the reference in the OP.


TRC also reports average monthly production up until 2015 and then they report the monthly production to current date elsewhere, just have to dig around a bit.

What is worth looking at is the rig count versus monthly production. I think that tells the story when you realize the vast majority of the increase from 2009 onwards was unconventional which requires continuous drilling and lots of rigs in order to increase production (this isn't the case with older conventional production).


Thanks rockdoc123.

I haven't had a chance to explore the TRC's website that much, but it might be interesting to try an overlay plot of the number of rigs (or wells) over the production plot.

Meanwhile, I'm still looking for a sine wave in the data. I just don't see it. I wish I remembered my calculus so I could do some curve fitting with the data beyond what Excel offers. The production profile reminds me more of Pop's "wedge" than a sine wave. After all, I think the most recent peak in Texas' production reflects the old analogy of just "squeezing the sponge more and harder" to get any water out.
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

--Colin Campbell
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Re: Declining Production in Texas

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 06 Jul 2016, 22:21:01

ROCKMAN wrote:BTW: mentioning the name of a formation in the Permian Basin (or anywherer erlse, for that matter) doesn't prove sh*t about reserve potential. Show me the maps, proposed well locations, economic analysis including cost and oil prices, detailed spacial reservoir analysis and then we'll have something to discuss. This he said/she said bullish*t is wasting everyone's time. I've worked four decades in a world populated with detailed data...not hyperbole. LOL.


LOL indeed. And you, and your industry, have been so busy low balling expectations on these things, and then over producing so easily when faced with higher prices, that the question MUST be asked.....how much are you hiding NOW, for the NEXT sine wave upswing?

I visited Drake's well this morning, and was fascinated by the wooden sucker rods. Still use those in your wells nowadays, or was that one of those things a pre-historical Rockman would have proclaimed "no one better be trying to fool me with those steel wonder rods, obviously its just a bunch of horn swoggling nonsense LOL, ain't no data on dem dam tings, and until I see them in action there ain't no way I'm takin a risk on such a new fangled idear!!".

How about wooden walking beams, got a bunch of those rigged up as well? Steam power? Where DID all those wooden derricks go? They have a working shackle line running there on Oil Creek, across the creek even, how many of those did you hook up last week?

Progress Mr Rockman, never stops, and yesterdays "ain't gonna believe it till I see it!" is usually the last guy on the bandwagon, but on the bandwagon he will get.....
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Declining Production in Texas

Unread postby PeakOiler » Tue 02 Aug 2016, 05:47:34

Updated graph with data through May:

Image
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

--Colin Campbell
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Re: Declining Production in Texas

Unread postby PeakOiler » Sat 01 Oct 2016, 05:05:11

Updated graph with data through July 2016:

Image
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

--Colin Campbell
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ESTIMATING TEXAS PRODUCTION-BRIDGING THE GAP

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 08 Mar 2018, 17:06:21


A Guest Post by Guy Minton (Details for the chart above are explained in the post.) The Texas Railroad Commission (RRC) had the oil and gas production reported online in early 2005, and became fully online for producers and the public on Feb 14, 2005. At the time it was set up, it required the producers to input their production in the production file for existing approved leases, and in the pending lease data file for those leases which have not yet received an approved lease number by the RRC. Each month, the RRC only reports the oil and condensate that is currently updated that month which is in the production file. Historically, the production did not seem to be completely reported. The lag time to near full reporting of RRC production went from almost 18 months, down to about nine months within


ESTIMATING TEXAS PRODUCTION-BRIDGING THE GAP
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Texas crude oil production reaches 3 million barrels/day

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 08 Mar 2018, 18:46:39

Updated graph with data through December 2017.

Image
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Texas crude oil production reaches 3 million barrels/day

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 08 Mar 2018, 20:42:42

copious.abundance wrote:Updated graph with data through December 2017.

Image


Haven't seen Westexas around for a LLOOOONNGGGGGG time. Wonder why?

BBWWAAHHAAHHAAAA!!!

To think, he got credit for his ELM ideas...using Texas as an example..because he is a geologist. Working in Texas. I mean, the irony, of why geology without ANY understanding of economics is NOT the ticket for understanding resource economic issues.
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Re: Texas crude oil production reaches 3 million barrels/day

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Fri 09 Mar 2018, 03:37:38

QEP Resources has a pretty good explanation (along with some graphics) in their 3 and 4 quarter investor relations prentations describing how they are using the elevated pressure from frac'd but not producing wells to buffer wells from inter well interference as they downspacing in the Permian.
The added 2/3thousand psi is also assisting oil production.

This explains why the recent Bakken numbers have been so high along with huge amounts of produced water.
These operators are continuing to innovate.
People who simply look at historical production charts to make future projections continue to get it all wrong.
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Re: Texas crude oil production reaches 3 million barrels/day

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 09 Mar 2018, 13:21:06

Here is a prediction today from an industry insider.
http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/57484578 ... show-clips
He says the shale oil fields will reach "maturation" and growth in production will be at the lower end of the predictions that are out there.
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Re: Texas crude oil production reaches 3 million barrels/day

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 09 Mar 2018, 18:43:08

Here is a prediction today from an industry insider.


I apparently am missing something here because the company who the host introduces as a "shale pioneer" was only formed in 2016. Perhaps they were referring to the CEO who was formerly with EOG through the formative years.

The prediction made that some basins will start to decrease in production shortly and referencing the Eagle Ford as an example is a bit self serving given the company in question only has holdings in the Deleware basin portion of the Permian.

What he did say near the end is that slow down in production growth will drive oil prices higher. As I've said before higher oil prices means that areas that aren't currently economic to develop will be so for a period of time there is going to be a see-saw until such time as all the potential drill locations have been drilled regardless of price. So if prices stay range bound undoubtedly you will see a leveling off of production in basins that have already seen a lot of drilling, it they rise on the other hand then production will also rise.
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Re: Texas crude oil production reaches 3 million barrels/day

Unread postby StarvingLion » Fri 09 Mar 2018, 21:26:17

People who simply look at historical production charts to make future projections continue to get it all wrong.


The Shale Scam took off right after the ahem Financial Crisis (worthless currency).

Funny how all that "innovation" was never viable before 2008.
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Re: Texas crude oil production reaches 3 million barrels/day

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 09 Mar 2018, 22:15:08

rockdoc123 wrote:
Here is a prediction today from an industry insider.


I apparently am missing something here because the company who the host introduces as a "shale pioneer" was only formed in 2016. Perhaps they were referring to the CEO who was formerly with EOG through the formative years.

The prediction made that some basins will start to decrease in production shortly and referencing the Eagle Ford as an example is a bit self serving given the company in question only has holdings in the Deleware basin portion of the Permian.

What he did say near the end is that slow down in production growth will drive oil prices higher. As I've said before higher oil prices means that areas that aren't currently economic to develop will be so for a period of time there is going to be a see-saw until such time as all the potential drill locations have been drilled regardless of price. So if prices stay range bound undoubtedly you will see a leveling off of production in basins that have already seen a lot of drilling, it they rise on the other hand then production will also rise.

They introduced the man as a shale oil pioneer, not his present company. I never heard of the man or his present company but two years ago I had not heard of Rex Tillerson so that proves nothing. I don't think he is predicting a decline in tight oil production just slower growth then IEA is predicting 1.4 mbd down to 0.8mbd over and above current production. His reasoning sounds plausible but only time will tell.
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Re: Texas crude oil production reaches 3 million barrels/day

Unread postby tita » Sat 10 Mar 2018, 04:20:44

Yeah, Mark Papa... former CEO of EOG, actual CEO of Centennial.

For those who prefer to read, instead of listening "Fux News":
https://t.co/pdvQKsWFT7

And yes, he has interests in the Permian shale. So his judgment about US shale may be biased. But he is also 70 yo, not a young shark in the oil industry. Basically, he's the guy who Art Berman refer when he says that shale is the retirement party.

Something he said last year:
Going forward, the Permian, which is made of up many pancaked layers of oil-soaked rock in West Texas and New Mexico, will see the greatest leaps in well improvements over the next four to five years, Papa said in the Bloomberg interview.

"You’re going from only round 1 to round 2 of technology applications" in the Permian, he said. "Whereas in the Bakken, you’re going from round 5 to round 6. Maybe in the Eagle Ford, you’re going from Round 3 to Round 4 in waves of technology improvements."

source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ding-again

This makes sense... Also, Centennial basically used his fame to attract investors and acquire leases in the Permian, when oil prices were depressed.
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Re: Texas crude oil production reaches 3 million barrels/day

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 10 Mar 2018, 22:26:55

tita wrote:For those who prefer to read, instead of listening "Fux News":

So you think Rachel Maddow is a better news source while she spends half a show going on on Trump sending an invitation to Putin to attend the Miss Universe pageant when Russia hosted the show? Or perhaps you only read the NYT or the Washington Post and swallow everything they feed you without a grain of salt.
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Re: Texas crude oil production reaches 3 million barrels/day

Unread postby tita » Sun 11 Mar 2018, 10:11:41

vtsnowedin wrote:So you think Rachel Maddow is a better news source while she spends half a show going on on Trump sending an invitation to Putin to attend the Miss Universe pageant when Russia hosted the show? Or perhaps you only read the NYT or the Washington Post and swallow everything they feed you without a grain of salt.

I don't know who Rachel Maddow is, and I don't live in North America. I'm just more interested in written news. I consider Fox News or NBC News as populist medias, with poor information background accuracy. They say what people wants to listen.

I listened to the link you gave... I found it funny when the journalist talked about Marcellus as an "enormous deposit of oil". I'm quite sure you can spot the differences between the two treatments of the same information between Fox news and WSJ.
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Re: Texas crude oil production reaches 3 million barrels/day

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 11 Mar 2018, 11:05:20

tita wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:So you think Rachel Maddow is a better news source while she spends half a show going on on Trump sending an invitation to Putin to attend the Miss Universe pageant when Russia hosted the show? Or perhaps you only read the NYT or the Washington Post and swallow everything they feed you without a grain of salt.

I don't know who Rachel Maddow is, and I don't live in North America. I'm just more interested in written news. I consider Fox News or NBC News as populist medias, with poor information background accuracy. They say what people wants to listen.

I listened to the link you gave... I found it funny when the journalist talked about Marcellus as an "enormous deposit of oil". I'm quite sure you can spot the differences between the two treatments of the same information between Fox news and WSJ.

The journalist is not the expert. He asks the questions and the interviewee corrects his misconceptions. Print media is one sided as authors leave out questions where the answer disagrees with their point of view.
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Re: Texas crude oil production reaches 3 million barrels/day

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 11 Mar 2018, 11:34:26

"Yeah, Mark Papa... former CEO of EOG, actual CEO of Centennial." Mr. Papa is actually REQUIRED by the federal govt (SEC regulations) to promote the value of his company. But he cannot lie or present incorrect data. But he can offer whatever UNQUANTIFIED optimism he choses as long as he doesn't violate the SEC rules. The rocdoc, Rockman, coffeeman, Ms. Maddow et al are free to agree or disagree with any opinions Mr. Papa tosses out.
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