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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 2

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 02 Jan 2017, 17:31:21

Another Global Financial Crash

The world will pay the price for years of indebtedness and overspending. According to International Monetary Fund figures, world indebtedness stands at $152 (£122) trillion. That’s well over twice global output.

Much of that debt — such as loans extended to embattled eurozone countries Greece and Italy — will never be repaid.

The crisis in confidence will start with a crash in the bond markets, setting off a surge in interest rates and quickly lead to a series of bank failures across the world. This financial crisis will be more difficult to solve than the 2008 crash because national governmental finances will no longer be strong enough to come to the rescue as they did eight years ago.


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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 2

Unread postby evilgenius » Fri 06 Jan 2017, 12:05:57

It's when debt isn't repaid that is the worry. Deflation is caused by a shrinking of the money supply because of non-payment of debt. Since the '07-'08 crash, where a lot of debt was not repaid, there has been deflationary pressure within the economy. The Fed has fought this with lower interest rates. The Bank of Japan even went to negative interest rates.

People are fond of saying that deflation is the result of consumers refusing to buy because they believe they will be able to get the same thing in a period of time for less money. I don't think that's right. I think they don't purchase because they don't have access to money. During deflationary times there is often a lack of available funds to borrow, along with people having less in their pockets. In any case, prices fall because of lack of demand.

I was just watching a Jim Cramer thing on CNBC regarding the slumping stock prices of Macy's and Kohl's. The salient point he made was that the biggest reason why malls are fading is that mall rents are too high. Retailers can't afford to sell high volume, low to medium priced goods. People haven't got the money to pay more for what they can get online cheaper. The price differences are enough that people are happy enough not seeing what they are buying ahead of paying for it. Only the retailers who can sell big ticket items that customers need to see before they buy are doing well. I guess there simply isn't any cache left in the whole see and be seen aspect of mall shopping. The department stores need to become discounters but they can't under the current model.

You have to wonder what will happen to the malls? Obviously, their owners will try for higher rents. Will they cave and reduce rents? Will they allow the whole idea of mall shopping to die rather than come in line with the amount of money available under the developing paradigm? Will there be opportunities for re-purposing malls, say into residential real estate or residential/commercial? The residential/commercial thing seems to be fairly popular. If they went that route how far into it would entities like REIT's go before they handed it off to some new interest? You have to wonder about commercial real estate companies ability to continue to pay good dividends when the Fed is against them, entering an interest rate raising cycle. If the whole mall thing fell apart, and all of the jobs associated with it, what kind of impact would that have upon a Fed that never took their plight into consideration in the first place, except that lower interest rates did predominate for quite some time?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 2

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 06 Jan 2017, 12:21:16

In a post cheap oil world we will not need all that retail space that the malls represent. What we will need is increased warehouse space after" just in time" delivery systems fail. So perhaps much of the space in the malls will be converted to warehouse space for the remaining stores in the center of the mall to carry on with. Rental rates will have to be adjusted and bankruptcies will probably be involved between present and future use. Also the mix of products for sale will change with less toys, clothes, and recreational equipment to a much higher ratio of essential commodities and tools needed by people making do with what they have.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 06 Jan 2017, 13:09:29

Not just warehouse space, but living space with kitchens, bunk beds, communal bathrooms for the homeless.

and there will be plenty homeless as giant American homes become liabilities. Without money and with less oil/NG, folks will have trouble heating and cooling their McMansions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 2

Unread postby Cog » Fri 06 Jan 2017, 13:17:24

I'm sorry to say your communist/hippie dreams of everyone living in a commune and eating their daily gruel will probably not happen in your lifetime.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 06 Jan 2017, 13:40:53

Cog wrote:I'm sorry to say your communist/hippie dreams of everyone living in a commune and eating their daily gruel will probably not happen in your lifetime.

Cog, you're sill incapable of distinguishing description from prescription. I thoroughly enjoy my rarefied first world lifestyle. I will miss it? And you?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 06 Jan 2017, 14:13:07

pstarr wrote:Not just warehouse space, but living space with kitchens, bunk beds, communal bathrooms for the homeless.

and there will be plenty homeless as giant American homes become liabilities. Without money and with less oil/NG, folks will have trouble heating and cooling their McMansions.


I see the answer to this being the return to togetherness. It wasn't all that long ago historically that two brothers and their spouses and families often including an in-law or several would live in those big ole farmhouse places, which would increase your personal population density to several hundred percent. Just picture it, you and your spouse, perhaps an adult child and their spouse and a grandchild or three and your siblings family and your siblings mother-in-law living in your three bedroom house. Four to a bed makes it easy to stay warm with the thermostat set to 50, and you get your 'spousal duty time' whenever you can clear out the kids to school and the other adults to work. It is gonna be G-R-E-A-T!
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 2

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 06 Jan 2017, 18:06:37

Tanada wrote:
pstarr wrote:Not just warehouse space, but living space with kitchens, bunk beds, communal bathrooms for the homeless.

and there will be plenty homeless as giant American homes become liabilities. Without money and with less oil/NG, folks will have trouble heating and cooling their McMansions.


I see the answer to this being the return to togetherness. It wasn't all that long ago historically that two brothers and their spouses and families often including an in-law or several would live in those big ole farmhouse places, which would increase your personal population density to several hundred percent. Just picture it, you and your spouse, perhaps an adult child and their spouse and a grandchild or three and your siblings family and your siblings mother-in-law living in your three bedroom house. Four to a bed makes it easy to stay warm with the thermostat set to 50, and you get your 'spousal duty time' whenever you can clear out the kids to school and the other adults to work. It is gonna be G-R-E-A-T!

Good night Grand Paw, Good night John Boy .
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 2

Unread postby dolanbaker » Fri 06 Jan 2017, 18:18:18

vtsnowedin wrote: Good night Grand Paw, Good night John Boy .

The dream...

Image

The reality.

Image
Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 2

Unread postby radon1 » Sat 07 Jan 2017, 04:05:47

Economic forecast for 2017, google auto-translated.

In the coming 2017 the world economy will not get new growth drivers. On the contrary, a slight increase or rather attempts to fully recover from the 2008 crisis, threatened by two serious danger. The first comes from the United States and prompted by an attempt to make "the best" and created literally out of the blue. A second risk is potentially more damaging to the global economy comes from China and is associated with the inability to endlessly delay the inevitable. In the case of any of the negative scenarios or overlay one on the other, the extent of the recurrence of the crisis of 2008 will not happen due to the experience gained in overcoming the previous crisis. Today, no one will like nine years ago, during the year to wait idly, when the economy, thanks to the crisis, will be released on the supposed "natural level of development."


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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 2

Unread postby copious.abundance » Mon 05 Mar 2018, 21:28:32

Did I call this one (from Dec 20, 2016), or what?!?!?

Just a little early, by a couple months.

Damn I'm good. 8)
copious.abundance wrote:At this point I, too, am expecting some sort of large (or at least large-ish) correction ... possibly sometime next year. The steepness of the post-election run-up is unusual; usually when you see a run-up like it, it's come after a correction and is bouncing back. This one is coming off a what was already a recent high, or close to it. I made a chart of the DJIA to illustrate my point. The ones pointed to by the red lines are of similar steepness as the recent rise, but are coming off corrections and are typically healthy. This recent one is different and is probably a blow-off top of some sort.

Image
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 2

Unread postby baha » Mon 05 Mar 2018, 23:58:23

Tanada wrote:I see the answer to this being the return to togetherness. It wasn't all that long ago historically that two brothers and their spouses and families often including an in-law or several would live in those big ole farmhouse places, which would increase your personal population density to several hundred percent. Just picture it, you and your spouse, perhaps an adult child and their spouse and a grandchild or three and your siblings family and your siblings mother-in-law living in your three bedroom house. Four to a bed makes it easy to stay warm with the thermostat set to 50, and you get your 'spousal duty time' whenever you can clear out the kids to school and the other adults to work. It is gonna be G-R-E-A-T!


:lol: So funny... and so true. We did some solar installs for Meritage homes. 4000 sq-ft Mc Mansions. I went back to service one to discover there was three generations of hispanic folks living there. Grandma's, mom's, cousin's, and lots of kids. They were nice people. Much more friendly than the typical affluent middle class family. We need more togetherness. We have lost touch with our own families. How better to stay warm than cuddle :)

Cog wrote:I'm sorry to say your communist/hippie dreams of everyone living in a commune and eating their daily gruel will probably not happen in your lifetime.


Dude, just because you live a spoiled, privileged lifestyle doesn't mean everyone does. Your money is your ticket to join the commune...just because you don't have to talk to anyone doesn't mean you are not dependent.

Malls are going to become destinations (like they used to be). Restaurants, gyms, hookah bars, and apartments. With electric car charging at every parking spot :)

This 'correction' has no teeth. I'm still waiting for reality to set in...
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The energy density of a tank of FF's doesn't matter if it's empty.
I will see your google and raise you an infinity!

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 26 Apr 2018, 10:50:22

Well, it looks like it will be party time at Wall St. for the time being with Trump. The harder they party, the harder the hangover

Not surprisingly, Wall Street has embraced Trump’s new Fed line-up because its members are so favorably disposed to loosening restrictions on financial institutions of every sort.

https://www.thenation.com/article/at-th ... -disaster/
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 26 Apr 2018, 10:55:01

onlooker wrote:Well, it looks like it will be party time at Wall St. for the time being with Trump. The harder they party, the harder the hangover

Not surprisingly, Wall Street has embraced Trump’s new Fed line-up because its members are so favorably disposed to loosening restrictions on financial institutions of every sort.

https://www.thenation.com/article/at-th ... -disaster/

You do realize that hangovers, while unpleasant, aren't fatal, right?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 26 Apr 2018, 11:10:32

You do realize that hangovers, while unpleasant, aren't fatal, right?

The trajectory of Capitalism seems to be on a a pretty fatal course.
When you look at all this money grabbing based on irrational exuberance while entrenched fundamental problems get worse as this countries infrastructure is neglected, investments are neglected in favor of speculation and consumers continue to be stifled by easy credit while real opportunities dry up. And of course this malfunctioning Economy along with other Economies blindly continuing to pursue materialism that degrades and depletes this planet. Yes, I would say our destination is as fatal as it gets
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 26 Apr 2018, 12:16:19

onlooker wrote:
You do realize that hangovers, while unpleasant, aren't fatal, right?

The trajectory of Capitalism seems to be on a a pretty fatal course.
When you look at all this money grabbing based on irrational exuberance while entrenched fundamental problems get worse as this countries infrastructure is neglected, investments are neglected in favor of speculation and consumers continue to be stifled by easy credit while real opportunities dry up. And of course this malfunctioning Economy along with other Economies blindly continuing to pursue materialism that degrades and depletes this planet. Yes, I would say our destination is as fatal as it gets

So nothing new here. Just the incessant drumbeat of all doom all the time, using very broad generalities, without facts, data, credible references or citations. Got it. :roll:

How well is the "seems to be" mode (i.e. intuition instead of facts or data)working out for the AGW denialists? The religious evolution deniers? The flat earthers? Those who believe the sun orbits the earth, since they "can see it"?

Intuition was the best people had in the days before science became a formalized institution, and so lots of random blind beliefs were as good a guess as any? (A wind spirit? Why not if no one understands temperature gradients and physics.)

The world has changed. Imperfect as it is, economics is a science, not someone's intuition.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 26 Apr 2018, 12:40:22

Outcast, not to argue with you but can't you see the Economics is not adding up. Our support base , the Earth us being steadily denuded. The pure Economics is a rigged game. Think of all the tax payer money they used to bail out the banks.Think of how Debt is strangling economic vitality from countries on down to families yet enriching the Banks even more.. You want statistics what about the STILL feeble percentage renewable energy is as a percentage of total energy use. Of how money is squandered on dubious investments like bitcoin etc. I am not asking you too believe the contrarians of official info but simply look unflinching at the world around us. Do you honestly think any of this is sustainable beyond a few more years or decades at most?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 26 May 2018, 07:30:58

https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldi ... 11e6cf48d3

I recently wrote about a looming credit crisis that’s stemming from high-yield junk bonds. The crisis itself will have massive consequences for investors. But that’s not the worst part.

The crisis will create a domino effect and trigger global financial contagion, which I usually refer to as "The Great Reset."

The collapse of high-yield bonds will hit stocks and bonds. Rising defaults will force banks to reduce their lending exposure, drying up capital for previously creditworthy businesses.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby Cog » Sat 26 May 2018, 10:19:07

@onlooker

John Mauldin has been a doom and gloomer for the past 10 years. You should read some of his hysteria during the 2007-2009 recession and how we would never recover from it. The man's opinion is basically worthless and I'm not surprised you are using him. Do yourself a favor onlooker, so you don't further embarrass yourself. Do five minutes of research on your doomer prognosticator and see how well he has done over the last 10 years.

Some quick examples of John Mauldin's predictive abilities thus far"

B. February 14, 2009 (S&P @ 827):

Prediction/Advice: “Let me reiterate my continued warning: this is not a market you want to buy and hold from today’s level. This is just far too precarious an economic and earnings environment.”

Outcome: S&P 500 up +45%. You pay a cherry price for certainty and consensus.

D. May 2, 2009 (S&P @ 878):

Prediction: “This rally has all the earmarks of a major short squeeze. ..When the short squeeze is over, the buying will stop and the market will drop. Remember, it takes buying and lot of it to move a market up but only a lack of buying to create a bear market.”

Outcome: S&P 500 up +36%.

April 2, 2010 (S&P @ 1178): Prediction: “ I think it is very possible we’ll see another lost decade for stocks in the US. If we do have a recession next year, the world markets are likely to fall in sympathy with ours.”

LOL the markets have risen for the past eight years
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby Cog » Sat 26 May 2018, 10:38:45

The problem with economic doomers is that they can always find a blogger that will feed their desire for doom. But they don't bother with going back in time and compare the predictions with the reality.

When I see some horrifying story of doom, whether it be oil doom, economic doom, or climate doom, I go back in time and look at their predictions 10 years or further back and see how they did. Almost invariably NO ONE predicts doom before it happens.

But that doesn't stop Zerohedge and those who worship the doom from quoting obviously flawed predictors of doom.
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