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Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby tita » Sun 25 Feb 2018, 13:57:35

spike wrote:I would recall the NETL report that Robert Hirsch co-authored, to be found here:
https://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/o ... g_NETL.pdf
He has a table of predictions of peak. Most are now past.

Sure... But I think this report, along with "peak oil" narrative becoming a mainstream subject at that time, had consequences for both supply/consumption and the oil prices.

- Oil prices stayed quite high until 2014. There was probably some speculation related to the imminence of an oil peak outside market fundamentals.
- ICE efficiency increased. Although many factors are involved (GW, price of gas, laws on clean air), the mpg became an argument for car dealers.
- LTO development may have been helped by the prospects of a tighter oil market. Of course, the price was the main catalyst. But a long-term perspective of high oil prices fueled by the idea peak oil may have had some effects on the investments and the frenzy of oil drillings.

We are now in the opposite situation. Peak oil demand narrative replaced the scarcity narrative of the past decade in the mainstream medias. A story of declining oil consumption that call for lower oil prices, which push the consequences I listed here in the opposite direction.

This is nothing new if we look at history. Booms and busts are part of the economic cycle of oil, and the importance of oil in the economy always raise concerns when things change.

As the last bust appears to be behind, then comes the question of the next boom... And maybe the peak oil supply concerns.
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 25 Feb 2018, 14:05:45

ralfy wrote:Production per capita is more logical.

No, it just fits your meme of doom.

Energy intensity per dollar of GDP is dropping significantly and predicted to continue falling for decades. Thus, lower production per capita is not automatically some huge problem.

Now, would things be better in general if BAU growth including massive population didn't occur? Sure. But that's not an oil problem, that's a human nature problem.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 25 Feb 2018, 14:21:42

Peak oil took place in November 2016. Since the low net energy from petroleum production won't support high oil prices anymore, the high cost oil will not be produced, which will lead to falling production from here after.

A dramatic fall in oil production might lead to oil price spikes, but they will damage the economy and lead to demand destruction. The falling net energy will force the oil price lower, which in turn will lead to falling production.

The economy won't fall in a straight line though, so we will see times of rising prices followed by oil price falls as the economy reacts to rising prices through stock market corrections and corporate and private defaults.
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 25 Feb 2018, 14:39:01

Yoshua wrote:Peak oil took place in November 2016. Since the low net energy from petroleum production won't support high oil prices anymore, the high cost oil will not be produced, which will lead to falling production from here after.

A dramatic fall in oil production might lead to oil price spikes, but they will damage the economy and lead to demand destruction. The falling net energy will force the oil price lower, which in turn will lead to falling production.

The economy won't fall in a straight line though, so we will see times of rising prices followed by oil price falls as the economy reacts to rising prices through stock market corrections and corporate and private defaults.

Based on what? No proof. No citations. No logic, just doomer dreams.

Meanwhile, global oil production continues to increase, just as global oil demand continues to increase. The global economy, led by China and the US (both huge consumers of oil) continues apace. In fact, the short term "fear" in the US economy is that too much growth with tight unemployment will spur inflation and significant interest rate increases. (Evidence: the stock markets' recent reaction to 10 year treasury rates).

What falling net energy? The ETP is failing, as the MAP prediction self destructs for 2018. For last week, per the threads watching the 2018 ETP MAP, oil would need to average under $37 for the 2018 MAP at $41 to hold. This, with the current WTI price over $26.50 above that.

Credible sources like the BP statistical review, the EIA, etc. have 2040 oil producton near current levels. They use actual numbers, surveys, extrapolations. They employ scientists and economists.

So what are you talking about, aside from the usual vague doomer talk?

By the way, what about the new Nov. 2017 peak US production, beating the previous peak in the 70's. Doesn't that count?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 25 Feb 2018, 16:02:44

As the oil price rose and hit 66 USD, the dollar kept falling. Foreigners holding US treasuries started to sell them. The treasury yields had to rise to compensate the falling dollar value. At a point the treasury yields rose above the S&P dividend yield, which caused a stock market sell off.

The oil price fell to 59 USD, but has been rising since then again. Will we see a new market correction when the oil price hits 66 USD?

Another problem is the tax cut which will lead to a $1T government deficit spending and the issue of treasuries at a time when the Fed has announced that they will not buy treasuries, when China and Japan are simultaneously reducing their US treasury holdings. Who will buy US treasuries?

The "happy days are here again" scenario you hold is from what I have read the other view of what caused the stock market correction.

Nothing wrong with positive thinking though...but I just can't share it.

BP predicts an oil production plateau that will last until 2040? They are basically saying that production has peaked and will remain on a plateau for a couple of decades before the decline. I hope that they are correct.
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 25 Feb 2018, 21:03:53

Yoshua wrote:Peak oil took place in November 2016.


According to you in another post, it happened in 2005. Make up your mind.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 25 Feb 2018, 21:08:54

ralfy wrote:Production per capita is more logical.


But that wasn't Hubbert's idea. Or Colin Campbells. And your daddy figure Matt didn't use it when he was busy claiming peak and bird flu being a CIA plot and whatnot. And you haven't displayed the slightest ability to use logic (and I worry that you needed to use a dictionary to figure out how to spell it, let alone understand how to use some) so your comments on it require more explanation. Who says that per capita is more logical? And why?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 25 Feb 2018, 21:52:53

Here is the thing, for interesting effects to occur we don't actually have to hit peak, we just have to have demand growth exceed supply growth for a number of years. In the recent decade demand growth has been around 1.5 MM/bbl/d/year or put another way we need to add 125,000/bbl/d every month every year. With the low investment in new exploration/production the last four years due to the glut it seems highly likely that over the next 4 years we are going to run into a 'supply gap' even if Shale LTO continues to progress at rapid pace in the USA and is successfully deployed to Argentina, Mexico, Russia and China. As used to be repeated around here frequently, depletion never sleeps and those legacy wells from conventional fields we used as a foundation in 2013 have depleted somewhat in the last five years reducing the size of the LTO bloom.

Unfortunately estimates of how much legacy depletion has taken place are all over the map. We can calculate good numbers for Prudhoe Bay and the North Sea because those sources file regular governmental production reports as part of their taxes/fees/tariffs. Numbers for most of OPEC and Russia on the other hand are harder to come by and many people say the ones we get are cooked to say what TPTB want them to say. How that is supposed to benefit TPTB is not much discussed so I tend to think they are more likely accurate than they are claimed to be by the nay-sayers.
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby Shaved Monkey » Mon 26 Feb 2018, 00:03:06

The trick will be to reduce oil demand faster than decline/demand by increasing electric vehicles at a fast enough rate to stop the economic chaos.
It will fun to see how they crank up the electricity generation to cope with the increased demand though.
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 26 Feb 2018, 00:23:15

Shaved Monkey wrote:The trick will be to reduce oil demand faster than decline/demand by increasing electric vehicles at a fast enough rate to stop the economic chaos.
It will fun to see how they crank up the electricity generation to cope with the increased demand though.

And that's what the pricing function is for. If there is really a coming shortfall in supply relative to increasing demand (seems entirely possible to me), then the price will increase as buyers bid for the available oil.

Some good and bad things fall out of that:

1). Obviously, it's hard on consumers dependent on oil. (BAD)

2). It cranks up the incentive to produce more oil -- potentially resulting in a supply gut again down the road. (Depends on how much global LTO production is really feasible, and at what oil price. If Oil gets seriously expensive -- say $120 or so for a few years, we may well find out. (I think if this scenario plays out, we'll find out the global economy is strong enough to support fairly decent oil prices -- especially as fleet efficiency keeps improving). (MIXED)

3). It makes HEV's, PHEV's, and especially BEV's more attractive. I've read various articles claiming that if people mostly charge at night, that at least in the US, the additional demand from EV's is no big deal unless the number of plug-in vehicles skyrockets massively. Short term that will mean burning more FF's to run the power plants at higher capacity at night, though. (Mostly GOOD)

4). It makes green energy sources more attractive. As those expand, that hopefully spurs more people to get battery backup. All that is helpful to the grid, even if more pluggable EV's require some more electricity. (GOOD)

5). To the extent it's hard on marginal consumers, it slows economic activity and thus there is less FF burning. (Mixed, but GOOD for delaying the worst AGW effects).

...

Given how important it is to make a massive shift toward BEV's ASAP to deal with AGW, net, I'd like to see oil prices get pretty nasty. Like maybe $150 for several years. I'd just love to see far more PHEV's and HEV's, to the extent they become a far more typical/normal choice, and auto companies start pushing them as hard or harder than traditional ICE's.

If that happened, by the time middle class BEV's arrive with plenty of choice within 5 years or so, maybe people would actually look at buying them instead of demanding a thousand miles of range and such nonsense.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 26 Feb 2018, 06:21:04

Adam

I have made up my mind.

Peak conventional onshore 1980
Peak conventional onshore & offshore 2005
Peak conventional & unconventional onshore & offshore 2016

There is nowhere left to go. We are past peak oil. Now it's downhill.

And the falling net energy from petroleum production will make the downhill ride very dangerous.
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby Darian S » Mon 26 Feb 2018, 13:27:53

Shaved Monkey wrote:The trick will be to reduce oil demand faster than decline/demand by increasing electric vehicles at a fast enough rate to stop the economic chaos.
It will fun to see how they crank up the electricity generation to cope with the increased demand though.

Problem is that demands significant increased electricity production once it reaches significant scale.
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby StarvingLion » Mon 26 Feb 2018, 14:12:14

Shaved Monkey wrote:The trick will be to reduce oil demand faster than decline/demand by increasing electric vehicles at a fast enough rate to stop the economic chaos.
It will fun to see how they crank up the electricity generation to cope with the increased demand though.


There is nothing to tax with electric vehicles. "Renewables" is a total fraud...see here:

BBC: Global renewable sector facing Enron-style endgame

The chief executive of Spanish utility Iberdrola, Ignacio Galan, has warned of the prospect of financial disaster for the global renewable energy sector, reminiscent of the collapse of Enron.
Outcast_Searcher is a fraud.
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby StarvingLion » Mon 26 Feb 2018, 14:20:16

There is nowhere left to go. We are past peak oil. Now it's downhill.


Its much worse than that. Already, the food production system is a net energy loss "industry".

The only thing backing the junk currency is "machine intelligence" ...
Outcast_Searcher is a fraud.
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 26 Feb 2018, 14:45:07

StarvingLion wrote:
There is nothing to tax with electric vehicles. "Renewables" is a total fraud...see here:


There are plenty of ways to tax EV's. Sales tax on the whole car,Tax the electricity if from the grid or tax the solar panels or wind mill if generated at home. Higher annual registration fees based on mileage driven previous year , Or tax by the mile driven using GPS to monitor use. "big brother is watching" and will be paid.
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 26 Feb 2018, 15:11:11

Back to the original question. If you look at the EIA weekly products supplied history you can see that we got up to 20M barrels back in 1998 and have been hovering a little above or below that level for a decade. The bumpy plateau as it were. When we see that line drop down to below 19M or 18M barrels a day we will have good evidence that oil (all types) has peaked and times will be very interesting. There are too many unknown variables to say when that might happen so any time from next week to next decade is in play.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... PUPUS2&f=W
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 26 Feb 2018, 15:18:25

Yoshua wrote:
There is nowhere left to go. We are past peak oil. Now it's downhill.

And the falling net energy from petroleum production will make the downhill ride very dangerous.

And the universe is made from a giant stack of blue turtles.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 26 Feb 2018, 15:36:42

Yoshua wrote:And the falling net energy from petroleum production will make the downhill ride very dangerous.

I don't suppose you have a credible source that has researched and quantified this decline in net energy? One can assume it is falling but you know what happens when you assume?
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 26 Feb 2018, 17:22:38

vtsnowedin wrote:
Yoshua wrote:And the falling net energy from petroleum production will make the downhill ride very dangerous.

I don't suppose you have a credible source that has researched and quantified this decline in net energy? One can assume it is falling but you know what happens when you assume?

One key, obvious, important fact the ETP crowd constantly ignores is the strong global trend of the economy toward less energy intensity of the economy. Thus even IF there were meaningful long term decline of net energy production from petroleum production, it might well be net neutral (or even positive) re economics.

Of course, as you imply, vtsnowedin, (and several on this site have shown with detailed data), there's no real evidence that such a "long term decline of net energy production" trend exists. Though the "easy" oil is largely gone, industrial processes tend to grow more efficient. The overall numbers show that the increased overall efficiency is largely offsetting any "problems" from the easy oil going away.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 26 Feb 2018, 17:30:50

vt – Here’s where the lack of understanding about even the most basic aspects of the fossil fuel extraction biz leads folks to believe such “facts”. First, lets look at the efficiency of drilling. Just as mpg vehicles has improved over the decades so has the Btu’s to drill a foot of hole. Rigs drill with electricity supplied by diesel generators. Their efficiency has greatly improved over the decades. What has also improved significant is the actual material used to drill: drill pipe and drill bits, directional drilling assemblies, drilling mud, etc. It all adds up to less time to drill a foot of hole. Which also means less electricity/diesel/Btu’s. IOW it takes less energy to drill 10,000’ of hole today then it did 30 or 40 years ago.

But that’s not the really f*cked up part of their “logic”. Bigger field were discovered decades ago. So a well might discover a 30 million bbl field. So a huge EROEI, right: energy to drill one well vs producing 30 million bbls, right? No, completely foolish math. It might have taken one well to make that discovery but one well didn’t produce 30 million bbls: it might have taken 100+ wells to produce that oil. So the EROEI would have been the energy used to drill 100+ wells vs the energy produced by 100+ wells.

So here’s the shocker for those newbies that buy into all the bullshit tossed out by those armchair “experts”. When US oil production peaked in 1971 (Texas production peaked in 1972) what was the average production from those old wells with the huge EROEI’s? I have the Texas avg. which should be close to the national average…probably a little higher. Was it 200 bopd? Maybe 300 bopd? Maybe even much higher since these wells supposedly had EROEI’s as much as 100.

The average oil production in 1972 from the wells producing from those giant conventional oil fields that had huge EROEI’s was…wait for it…wait for it…wait for it: it was 21 BOPD. In fact since the beginning of the great Texas oil boom with wells drilled with those HUGE EROEI’s the average well produced only about 20 to 22 bopd. Here are the official numbers from the TRRC:

http://www.rrc.state.tx.us/oil-gas/rese ... ce-1935/em clearly

You see the problem clearly now for the newbies that blindly believe the UNDOCUMENTED bullshit tossed out about how EROEI’s have greatly declined over the decades. What has greatly declined is the number of Btu’s discovered in new onshore fields over the decades. What HAS NOT increased is the number of Btu’s it takes to drill 10,000’ of hole today compared to how many it took to do so 50 years ago.

Notice also that according to the TRRC the proven oil reserves in Texas peaked about 15 billion bbls (in 1 million wells) in 1952 and then steadily decreased to about 4.5 billion bbls in 2008. But since then increased to 14 billion bbls (in 900,000 wells) in 2008.

Again to be clear here's DOCUMENTATION: 1952…15 billion bbls in 1 million wells and in 2008…14 billion bbls in 900,000 wells. So let’s again hear that fairy tale about huge EROEI’s in the good ole days. LOL.
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