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Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 28 Jan 2018, 10:16:24

Newfie wrote:By ice age he means a significat cooling in Britain and the Scandinavian countries.

Well if that is balanced by a "significant " warming here on the hill I'll take it and he'll just have to invest in some long underwear. :)
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 28 Jan 2018, 11:35:04

Yes, some cooling over western Europe, but not 'ice age' probably. And vt is right here about one thing with increasing storminess. See Hansen's "Storms of my Grandchildren" for more details on that.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 29 Jan 2018, 09:47:03

The weather “patterns” are kicking my rump. We are in the Bahamas and there is a “normal” pattern of northerly fronts that allow you to make progress against the Easterly trades. But this year it’s not happening. We get strong northerlies that kick up a huge sea state that then revert straight back to the E or SE trades. The Wife is on verge of muinty.

We are stuck in Mayaguana since Thursday and will have a marginal window to make Caicos tomorrow. Then it looks like we will be in Caicos for a week or more. Mayaguana has about 250 people and has not had a supply boat for 2 weeks. The Harbor we are in has no landslide access for the supply boat. The only deeper draft access is on the NW co Lerner if the island and is exposed to the NE swells, which at the moment are about 12 feet.

There are 2 other cruising boats here and one is running a bit low on provisions. We get won't starve but are looking for fresh veggies for their 1 year old. The good side of this is it’s making my “excess” provisioning look a bit more reasonable to my Wife.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby GHung » Mon 29 Jan 2018, 10:23:39

Newfie wrote:The weather “patterns” are kicking my rump. We are in the Bahamas and there is a “normal” pattern of northerly fronts that allow you to make progress against the Easterly trades. But this year it’s not happening. We get strong northerlies that kick up a huge sea state that then revert straight back to the E or SE trades. The Wife is on verge of muinty.

We are stuck in Mayaguana since Thursday and will have a marginal window to make Caicos tomorrow. Then it looks like we will be in Caicos for a week or more. Mayaguana has about 250 people and has not had a supply boat for 2 weeks. The Harbor we are in has no landslide access for the supply boat. The only deeper draft access is on the NW co Lerner if the island and is exposed to the NE swells, which at the moment are about 12 feet.

There are 2 other cruising boats here and one is running a bit low on provisions. We get won't starve but are looking for fresh veggies for their 1 year old. The good side of this is it’s making my “excess” provisioning look a bit more reasonable to my Wife.


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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 29 Jan 2018, 13:06:01

Newfie wrote:The weather “patterns” are kicking my rump. We are in the Bahamas and there is a “normal” pattern of northerly fronts that allow you to make progress against the Easterly trades. But this year it’s not happening. We get strong northerlies that kick up a huge sea state that then revert straight back to the E or SE trades. The Wife is on verge of muinty.

We are stuck in Mayaguana since Thursday and will have a marginal window to make Caicos tomorrow. Then it looks like we will be in Caicos for a week or more. Mayaguana has about 250 people and has not had a supply boat for 2 weeks. The Harbor we are in has no landslide access for the supply boat. The only deeper draft access is on the NW co Lerner if the island and is exposed to the NE swells, which at the moment are about 12 feet.

There are 2 other cruising boats here and one is running a bit low on provisions. We get won't starve but are looking for fresh veggies for their 1 year old. The good side of this is it’s making my “excess” provisioning look a bit more reasonable to my Wife.


Wow! That is really interesting stuff. Its so cool that you are living the dream, cruising the Caribbean. Global warming is affecting our climate big time up here in Alaska. Sounds like you're also being affected down there.

I hope you got out of Mayaguana, Bahamas OK and made it to Caicos. If you're lucky maybe you can find some of those amazing warm-water lobsters there to spice up your diet a bit.

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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 30 Jan 2018, 08:17:43

A rare popular access article on Methane. Kind of interesting about a research tunnel in Alaska.

http://www.kunc.org/post/there-ticking- ... der-arctic

While there is some correlation between food and gout it is apparently weak. Yes I drink quite a bit, cherries with breakfast every morning, eschew all beer/wine/booze, light on meat still get the damn attacks. Or abuse it all with no effect. Drives a sane man crazy, let alone me.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 31 Jan 2018, 17:49:41

We really need to find a way to wander back toward the thread topic.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 31 Jan 2018, 21:48:45

Gout discussion split off into its own thread, GOUT
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 10 Feb 2018, 20:40:30

This is pretty much what Guy McPherson has been going on about for these many years, to the ridicule of many.

https://grist.org/article/geoengineerin ... ve-planet/

Devil’s Bargain


According to a new study, we might be locked in this deadly embrace. Research by an international team of scientists recently published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters says that the cooling effect of aerosols is so large that it has masked as much as half of the warming effect from greenhouse gases. So aerosols can’t be wiped out. Take them away and temperatures would soar overnight.


Link to the study:

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1 ... 76079/full

abstract:

Limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2.0°C requires strong mitigation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Concurrently, emissions of anthropogenic aerosols will decline, due to coemission with GHG, and measures to improve air quality. However, the combined climate effect of GHG and aerosol emissions over the industrial era is poorly constrained. Here we show the climate impacts from removing present-day anthropogenic aerosol emissions and compare them to the impacts from moderate GHG-dominated global warming. Removing aerosols induces a global mean surface heating of 0.5–1.1°C, and precipitation increase of 2.0–4.6%. Extreme weather indices also increase. We find a higher sensitivity of extreme events to aerosol reductions, per degree of surface warming, in particular over the major aerosol emission regions. Under near-term warming, we find that regional climate change will depend strongly on the balance between aerosol and GHG forcing.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 12 Feb 2018, 18:51:31

Sea Level rise due to global warming is ACCELERATING

sea-level-rise-has-rapidly-accelerated

If the current pattern continues we're looking at 2+ feet of sea level rise by 2100-----but the studies authors expect sea level rise to be even greater as ice sheet collapse occurs in response to rising sea level.

In other words we're going to get runaway sea level rise happening in response to runaway global warming.

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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 12 Feb 2018, 19:50:46

Plantagenet wrote:Sea Level rise due to global warming is ACCELERATING

sea-level-rise-has-rapidly-accelerated

If the current pattern continues we're looking at 2+ feet of sea level rise by 2100-----but the studies authors expect sea level rise to be even greater as ice sheet collapse occurs in response to rising sea level.

In other words we're going to get runaway sea level rise happening in response to runaway global warming.

CHEERS!

26 inches in a century isn't what I would call "runaway sea level rise". I will certainly never have to deal with it but those children being born this year as adults will have to make adjustments or abandon some coastal areas. Venice and Bangladesh will take it hard but they have had plenty of warning.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Mon 12 Feb 2018, 20:56:34

There are places in the USA that have to face SLR as well. For example there are streets and neighborhoods in Florida that are washed with sea water several times a year. The barrier islands up and down the entire East Coast are sinking and shrinking. Even downtown Nantucket town has low lying streets that used to be wetted in the 100-year floods, that are now flooded on average every 5-10 years.

We all know about Louisiana around New Orleans. The people that live there must decide if they want to build the kind of water control that one sees in the Netherlands, in order to live below mean sea level. It is doable, and also expensive - and you effectively end up with another branch of government that deals with engineering and operates the flood controls during storms.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 13 Feb 2018, 10:52:19

The problem in Louisiana is not sea level rise but the subsidence of the land which is the alluvial out-wash of the Mississippi river. The levy system has pinned the river for two centuries now, keeping it from periodically changing course and depositing new layers of silt during floods. It was known as far back as the 1970s that the river would eventually win and leave New Orleans miles away from the rivers next course.
I clearly remember a picture in a school book showing the town the river was expected to wipe out as it dug it's new channel towards the Gulf of Mexico.
Then you have long island and Nantucket that are basically piles of gravel and boulders left by the retreating glacier ten to twenty thousand years ago. These have been steadily eroding from the day the ice retreated with human activity accelerating the process.
Of course a rising sea level makes both processes accelerate and more difficult to deal with.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 13 Feb 2018, 12:07:48

vtsnowedin wrote:The problem in Louisiana is not sea level rise but the subsidence of the land which is the alluvial out-wash of the Mississippi river.


Yes parts of the Mississippi Delta are slowly sinking but Alluvial deltas built by rivers like the Missippi, the Nile, the Yellow River etc. all have enormous areas of agricultural land at very low elevations. Major cities like Alexandria in Egypt have been built right on the coastline of deltas, while other cities like New York and New Orleans and London and Dublin are in the intertidal zone just slightly upriver from the coast. All these low elevation areas are at increased risk of flooding as the ocean rises.

sea_level_rise_threatens_deltas_around_the_world

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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby ozcad » Wed 14 Feb 2018, 00:03:01

People seem to be quibbling over whether to prepare for a 0.5 to 2.0 meter rise. If (as seems already likely) we lose the race to stop CC, should we not be talking about 75 meters? Or is 75m just too depressing and therefore 'cannot happen'?
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 14 Feb 2018, 07:30:40

ozcad wrote:People seem to be quibbling over whether to prepare for a 0.5 to 2.0 meter rise. If (as seems already likely) we lose the race to stop CC, should we not be talking about 75 meters? Or is 75m just too depressing and therefore 'cannot happen'?

A 75 meter rise during one persons lifetime is the stuff B movies are made of and the only solution would be to move up hill a hundred meters. Not much sense dwelling on it as we can't find a way to prevent even the 0.5 meter rise.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby dissident » Wed 14 Feb 2018, 07:56:18

ozcad wrote:People seem to be quibbling over whether to prepare for a 0.5 to 2.0 meter rise. If (as seems already likely) we lose the race to stop CC, should we not be talking about 75 meters? Or is 75m just too depressing and therefore 'cannot happen'?


A 75 m rise would take centuries to develop. This is thanks to the strong ice albedo-induced hysteresis effect. But 2 meters by 2100 is looking like an optimistic (or deluded) estimate and Hanson's estimate of 7 meters is very plausible. Humanity will be in a world of hurt from various warming-associated problems by 2050.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Thu 15 Feb 2018, 17:48:42

Palaeoworld
Volume 25, Issue 4, December 2016, Pages 496-507

Methane Hydrate: Killer cause of Earth's greatest mass extinction
Uwe Brand a, Nigel Blamey a, Claudio Garbelli b, 1, Erika Griesshaber c, Renato Posenato d, Lucia Angiolini b, Karem Azmy e, Enzo Farabegoli f, Rosemarie Came g

The gas composition of the end Permian brachiopod-inclusions reflects dramatically higher seawater carbon dioxide and methane contents leading up to the biotic event. Initial global warming of 8–11 °C sourced by isotopically light carbon dioxide from volcanic emissions triggered the release of isotopically lighter methane from permafrost and shelf sediment methane. Consequently, the huge quantities of methane emitted into the atmosphere and the oceans accelerated global warming and marked the negative δ13C spike observed in marine carbonates, documenting the onset of the mass extinction period. The rapidity of the methane hydrate emission lasting from several years to thousands of years was tempered by the equally rapid oxidation of the atmospheric and oceanic methane that gradually reduced its warming potential but not before global warming had reached levels lethal to most life on land and in the oceans. Based on measurements of gases trapped in biogenic and abiogenic calcite, the release of methane (of ∼3–14% of total C stored) from permafrost and shelf sediment methane is deemed the ultimate source and cause for the dramatic life-changing global warming (GMAT > 34 °C) and oceanic negative-carbon isotope excursion observed at the end Permian.

link

Today, there is enough free methane in the shelf sediments of the ESAS to do the same thing.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Sun 18 Feb 2018, 11:07:28

Russian scientists deny climate model of IPCC
Massive emissions of methane in the Arctic become a significant source of greenhouse gases, a study reveals
The rate of vertical degradation of subsea permafrost in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) is 18 cm a year over the past 30 years, which is greater than previously thought. Scientists from Tomsk Polytechnic University received this data after the comprehensive study of subsea permafrost not only in the Russian Arctic but also in the Arctic as a whole.

TPU scientists and co-authors from Russia and Sweden have recently published findings of the study in Nature Communications.

Basing on the repeated drilling of four wells performed by the Institute of Permafrost Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences in 1982-1983, scientists have proved that the rates of vertical degradation of subsea permafrost amount to 18 cm a year over the last 30 years (the average is 14 cm a year) which is greater than it was assumed before.

'New data obtained by complex biochemical, geophysical and geological studies conducted in 2011-2016 resulted in the conclusion that in some areas of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf the roof of the subsea permafrost had already reached the depth of hydrates' stability the destruction of which may cause massive releases of bubble methane.

According to our findings published earlier in Nature Geoscience, Science and Philosophical Transactions, Royal Society, the size of CH4 bubble flaw from the bottom sediments into the ESAS water can vary from milligrams to tens or hundreds of grams per square meter a day depending on the state of subsea permafrost, which leads to the concentration increase of atmospheric CH4 in the surface layer to values 2-4 times exceeding background concentrations measured in our planet,' says the first author of the paper Professor Natalia Shakhova, the TPU Department of Geology and Minerals Prospecting.

She notes that these findings were confirmed during the expedition to the East Siberian Arctic Self in 2016. The expedition was organized and conducted jointly with the scientists from the Pacific Oceanological Institute FEB RAS, with the participation of the Institute of Oceanology RAS and the Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS. More data will be published in 2018.

link


Current rates and mechanisms of subsea permafrost degradation in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf
It was shown that slight changes in seafloor erosion and sedimentation patterns that change the thermal and pressure regime below the seafloor could be viable mechanisms for unroofing underlying gas reservoirs, which can release CH4 in large quantities66. Once initiated, erosion could propagate further downward and migrate laterally to adjacent areas, driven by venting gas. Erosion of a few tens of seafloor metres could unroof over-pressured shallow gas reservoirs and buoyant hydrate-laden sediment accumulations beneath the seafloor, triggering rapid gas release66,67.

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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 18 Feb 2018, 11:28:38

Frankly, considering the feedback induced release of methane from permafrost and the oceans, the rate and degree of climate change and accompanying effects IPCC forecasts is laughable
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