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Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 12 Feb 2018, 18:55:41

Basic Minimum Income discussion moved to a more appropriate thread HERE

Please try and stick to stock market news in this thread, thanx!
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Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 12 Feb 2018, 21:14:01

EdwinSm wrote:For me the question is was this post week just a small interruption to the flow of the market over the last years, or is it a sign of a new direction (sideways or even down)? I do not know the answer, but looking at the 10 year graph the falls can be a lot swifter than the climbs.

That observation holds well for, say, 100 years as well.

Rapid drops (i.e. crashes) are definitely a part of the cost of being in the market. i.e. why long term holders are "paid" so well compared to cash, bonds, short term CD's, etc. -- it's enduring the volatility. And on the downside it can definitely be nasty.

OTOH, getting paid several percent more than the rate of inflation over any multi-decade period is a nice payoff. It's a nice exercise in psychology. I like to sleep at night, so I tend to keep a very balanced portfolio. I have friends that literally just completely ignore the market on a month to month basis for their 401-K -- they just always add the max they can and let time do it's thing.

Whatever works. (Being a perma-bear and constantly predicting doom definitely hasn't worked over a multi-decade period -- ever).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby GoghGoner » Wed 14 Feb 2018, 09:06:21

Been a long time since we had any inflation worries... The markets should be jumpy for a long time.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inflation-heats-stocks-tumble-134723028.html

Torsten Sløk, chief international economist at Deutsche Bank, noted in an email on Tuesday that economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect core inflation to average 1.8% in the second quarter of the year, up from 1.5% in the first quarter. Wednesday’s report will likely pull forward expectations for faster inflation even more.

“I currently spend significant amounts of time on the phone, emails, and in meetings explaining this coming jump in the March and April inflation data,” Sløk said. “And I have come to the conclusion that this is not priced in to rates at all.”
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Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby Cog » Wed 14 Feb 2018, 10:36:49

The Fed's goal is less than 2% inflation. Barring any huge increase in wages, not seeing it happen.
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Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 14 Feb 2018, 15:22:32

Cog wrote:The Fed's goal is less than 2% inflation. Barring any huge increase in wages, not seeing it happen.

People seem to forget that if the economy returns to normal, there will likely be consequences. Inflation more in the 3.x% long term average range wouldn't be surprising.

Now, can the Fed force inflation to a more muted 2% while allowing robust economic growth? I'll believe it when I've seen it for, say, 5 years or more.

If the markets are fearing possible double digit inflation on a non-core jump to 0.5% for a month, with fuel costs surging over 5%, that seems completely irrational to me.

If they're fearing the Fed needs to bump interest rates up by another half percent or so beyond what they planned, OK, but how much fear and loathing should that inspire?

Meanwhile, at 3:18, we have stocks up around 1.5%, oil up nearly 3%, and a stock market supposedly terrified of a little inflation. (Down sharply early today, supposedly on inflation worries with today's report).

:?

Go figure. In my opinion, it's almost impossible to discern anything meaningful on day to day economic activity -- too many variables, too many revisions to come, etc.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 15 Feb 2018, 14:38:15

warns that the US stock market is on the brink of an imminent crash that could trigger another global recession.


https://medium.com/insurge-intelligence ... d217752428
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Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby Cog » Thu 15 Feb 2018, 16:22:34

onlooker wrote:
warns that the US stock market is on the brink of an imminent crash that could trigger another global recession.


https://medium.com/insurge-intelligence ... d217752428


You should short the market immediately onlooker and become one of the 1%. No?
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Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 15 Feb 2018, 16:40:09

Cog wrote:
onlooker wrote:
warns that the US stock market is on the brink of an imminent crash that could trigger another global recession.


https://medium.com/insurge-intelligence ... d217752428


You should short the market immediately onlooker and become one of the 1%. No?

Never had money in the Stock Market and never will. Don't you know Cog, I am a Doomer. 8)
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Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby Cog » Thu 15 Feb 2018, 16:49:29

I know your account is doomed if oil doesn't go below $40/bbl in ten and a half months. Unless you intend to welch on the bet like your mentor shorty did.
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Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 15 Feb 2018, 17:06:52

Cog wrote:I know your account is doomed if oil doesn't go below $40/bbl in ten and a half months. Unless you intend to welch on the bet like your mentor shorty did.

Don't count your chickens before they hatch :lol:
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Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby Cog » Thu 15 Feb 2018, 17:16:09

onlooker wrote:
Cog wrote:I know your account is doomed if oil doesn't go below $40/bbl in ten and a half months. Unless you intend to welch on the bet like your mentor shorty did.

Don't count your chickens before they hatch :lol:


You are going to welch on the bet aren't you?
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Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 15 Feb 2018, 17:47:44

Cog wrote:
onlooker wrote:
Cog wrote:I know your account is doomed if oil doesn't go below $40/bbl in ten and a half months. Unless you intend to welch on the bet like your mentor shorty did.

Don't count your chickens before they hatch :lol:


You are going to welch on the bet aren't you?

No. Didn't say that. Just that it is still too early to determine who will win.
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City of London financiers contemplate “imminent” 2018 US sto

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 16 Feb 2018, 08:42:52


Coming dramatic decline of US stock prices would trigger global recession, finds grim forecast to be explored at roundtable hosted by British financial services think-tank Published as part of the launch of the new beta platform for INSURGE intelligence, a crowdfunded journalism platform for people and planet. A new analysis published on the website of a London-based think-tank, funded by the world’s biggest banking and financial services institutions, warns that the US stock market is on the brink of an imminent crash that could trigger another global recession. The document by a senior US economist and former Houblon-Norman Fellow at the Bank of England is published on the website of the Centre for the Study of Financial Innovation (CSFI), which runs around 100 roundtable events a year involving financial services insiders from the UK and beyond. The document forecasts that in 2018, US stock prices


City of London financiers contemplate “imminent” 2018 US stock market crash of up to “50%”
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Re: City of London financiers contemplate “imminent” 2018 US

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 16 Feb 2018, 15:50:54

AdamB wrote:

Coming dramatic decline of US stock prices would trigger global recession, finds grim forecast to be explored at roundtable hosted by British financial services think-tank Published as part of the launch of the new beta platform for INSURGE intelligence, a crowdfunded journalism platform for people and planet.


City of London financiers contemplate “imminent” 2018 US stock market crash of up to “50%”

So now we have crowdfunded sources of doomer propaganda publishing, masquerading as "think tanks"?

Bravo! Zerohedge would be so proud.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby evilgenius » Tue 20 Feb 2018, 12:52:17

Cog wrote:The Fed's goal is less than 2% inflation. Barring any huge increase in wages, not seeing it happen.


What's your take on the yield on the US ten year if inflation is running at 2%? Right now, the yield is flirting with hitting 3%. Dividend stocks like reits and elder care are falling, seemingly as a means to boost yields as the rate structure rises. Do you think the ten year yield will stop at the point where it fits 2% inflation, or that it will bounce higher on the way to seeking equilibrium? I'm guessing it will bounce. How much it bounces could have an impact upon sentiment. I guess that would depend upon investors moods at that point, how far they're willing to see the market deviate from balance in order to accommodate their appetite for risk.
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Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby Cog » Tue 20 Feb 2018, 12:58:23

I do not think that even if the ten year goes over 3% it will have a dramatic effect on either the economy or the market. This is still a very low rate historically.
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Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 20 Feb 2018, 13:37:45

evilgenius wrote:
Cog wrote:The Fed's goal is less than 2% inflation. Barring any huge increase in wages, not seeing it happen.


What's your take on the yield on the US ten year if inflation is running at 2%? Right now, the yield is flirting with hitting 3%. Dividend stocks like reits and elder care are falling, seemingly as a means to boost yields as the rate structure rises. Do you think the ten year yield will stop at the point where it fits 2% inflation, or that it will bounce higher on the way to seeking equilibrium? I'm guessing it will bounce. How much it bounces could have an impact upon sentiment. I guess that would depend upon investors moods at that point, how far they're willing to see the market deviate from balance in order to accommodate their appetite for risk.

Trying to forecast interest rates is as difficult as trying to forecast any other financial market in the short to medium term. The Fed can't forecast long term interest rates (largely driven by sentiment), and they SET short term interest rates, at least for the US.

What we CAN say is that interest rates, especially long term interest rates, correlate well with inflation over time. Investors do understand what inflation does to purchasing power, so that's one relationship that would strongly tend to hold true over time (barring the usual caveats, zombie hordes, epic space meteors, etc).
Last edited by Outcast_Searcher on Tue 20 Feb 2018, 13:53:34, edited 1 time in total.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 20 Feb 2018, 13:49:54

Cog wrote:I do not think that even if the ten year goes over 3% it will have a dramatic effect on either the economy or the market. This is still a very low rate historically.

There may be a blip (psychology / fixation on round numbers) at that point, but I don't see WHY it should have a "dramatic" effect (not that I can forecast interest rates, mind you. Just my take as a patient, long term investor.)

I just saw some video "news" last night of some technical analyst claiming long term interest rates were changing direction, that the long term bottom for interest rates "was in", etc. The idea was that if the secular trend in interest rates was now up, those trends (historically) last a long time, and this was a big difference for the US economy / markets. She said (I didn't check, but it sounds close) that the last upward cycle started in 1946. Assuming that's right, that's 35 years up (peaking in '81), and 35 years down (bottoming in '16).

It COULD be that the belief (or not) in whether the long term secular shift is in would have a large psychological impact. When "the deciders" decide on that, and the financial press constantly yammers about it (affecting 401-K investors, etc) is hard to guess, IMO.

I don't necessarily believe any of that, including a long cycle next time can be confidently forecast -- I just try to look at what I think the masses are likely to focus on.

Call it a hobby...
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 21 Feb 2018, 18:31:44

Please take the truther stuff to a truther thread. This thread is for discussing the stock market. Thx.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Well, the Dow dumped 500 points again today.

Seems to me the stock market is getting skittish. Wouldn't be surprised to see more down days coming.

Everything is priced to perfection.....but there are some issues with rising interest rates, war risk in the spring with North Korea and god knows what is going to happen in Syria/Afghanistan and the other wars Trump inherited from obama, and of course there is impeachment mania and anti-Russia phobia from the left to worry about. There are even debt issues and an overheated housing market, just like in 2008-9.

And I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the economy slide into recession towards the end of 2018, especially if the Ds win back the House and pledge to increase taxes again.

Cheers!

Image
Seems like we've got a bit of irrational exuberance going on again about the stock market
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Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 21 Feb 2018, 21:39:16

9/11 theories moved to the 9/11 thread, please stick to the Dow Jones in this thread.

9-11-redux-pt-5-t69224-220.html
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