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When will Oil Peak?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

What is your idea/guesstimate of when global oil will peak.

It happened over a year ago
3
4%
It happened in the last year
3
4%
It's happening right now
15
22%
It will happen in the next year
8
12%
It will happen in the next 5 years
26
38%
It wont happen in the next 5 years
14
20%
 
Total votes : 69

When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby TT » Wed 26 Oct 2005, 01:28:17

I've been reading various articles stating that PO will be "last year", "this year", "next year", "within 5 years", "after 5 years" etc.

I'd thought I'd try to get a feeling of when other members thought the most likely date of PO.
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby Concerned » Wed 26 Oct 2005, 01:40:52

My best guess is 15-20 year time frame.

It's really a moving target depending on what else happens economically.

If we have a global recession demand destruction may see peak oil pushed back to a later date.

If most people 80% or more stopped driving tomorrow and were able to work and pay their debts by walking or using mass transit then that would also delay peak oil.

Essentially lots of variables that can push the date around. Since 1999 oil price is up over 400% and demand is stronger than ever, so it appears there needs to be a damn sight more increase in price before demand will begin to realy drop off.

I would say that really no one knows for sure except that one day a finite resource if it continues to be harvested will eventually decline to zero.
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby jato » Wed 26 Oct 2005, 01:47:51

If we have a global recession demand destruction may see peak oil pushed back to a later date.


I think, while you may be right, demand destruction may induce global peak oil. If we go from 85 million barrels per day (or whatever the current figure is) to 78 million barrels per day, it is quite possible we may never again reach 85...thus peak oil may be triggered by economic forces.
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby peripato » Wed 26 Oct 2005, 02:35:29

I'll say somewhere between 2007-2012 for what it's worth but I don't think the actual date matters much in the end. What matters are the measures we put in place now to adjust our societies to living at a much lower level of energy usage. We need to start living like peak is imminent for the sake of the earth, other species, and all the unborn generations of people to come.

However given most people's attitudes, especially those with money, power and influence towards the raft of serious economic and environmental issues confronting the world today even if peak were thirty years away we still would not be prepared for this or any of the other potential catastrophies heading our way.

In fact it is apparent that more and more people worldwide are being ensnared by the lures on offer by the growth mania paradigm and we will not stop our collective acceleration towards the edge despite increasing evidence that such action is dangerous to our health.
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby bobcousins » Wed 26 Oct 2005, 06:15:47

One thing I never understood about humans. What is it with this obsession over precise dates, aribitrary numbers and taxonomy? When did WW2 end? What day was Jesus born? When does Ramadan start?

1998 dead in Iraq - uninteresting, 1999 dead- yawn, 2000- WOW! Let's fill the news. 2001 dead - enough already.

And when you have timed and counted to the EXACT number - you have to put it in a category. Classified. Pigenonholed. Top 10? Top 100? Good, bad, neutral? Up, down or sideways? Left hand, right hand? Animal, vegetable or mineral?

God made the world an infinite number of shades of gray. Why do we insist it isn't? Can our feeble brains not cope with the tiniest bit of uncertainty? Will we only act if we know exactly?
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby TT » Wed 26 Oct 2005, 09:35:20

Yeah right Bobcousins.

So peak oil is gunna happen. It could mean the end of life as we know it. It certainly means huge changes in our lives. Some people are suggesting it may mean death for millions of people.

At the very least we are all going to have to adjust ourselves through a probably turbulant time.

And you don't understand the "obsession" with dates. Well pull your head out of wherever you have it stuck and realise that people might just like to have some idea of when they may expect to have to say goodbye to the life they have. Maybe people are just hoping that they have enough time left to be able to afford that little paddock on the bush that might afford them a chance of a half-life.

Your post comes across as completely self rightious and arrogant. Like you don't care if you have a day or 20 years left to live for instance.

If you don't understand - just ask for an explanation. There's no need to pretend to be a superior being.
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby dunewalker » Wed 26 Oct 2005, 10:13:54

I agree with jato, that "peak oil" may be induced by demand destruction rather than techno/geologic limitations. Early on in my introduction to the concept of peak oil it became apparent to me that the crisis will be precipitated when ability to supply enough oil falls short of global demand, even if production is still increasing. Then during the Hurricane Katrina episode, I realized that when the gulf oil production was shut down in anticipation of the storm, that the day they closed those valves might have been the day global oil production peaked. This summer is when we've begun to experience the peak oil effect--higher prices, demand destruction, a forced change in consciousness and even lifestyle for a growing number of folks.
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 26 Oct 2005, 10:45:51

jato wrote:
If we have a global recession demand destruction may see peak oil pushed back to a later date.


I think, while you may be right, demand destruction may induce global peak oil. If we go from 85 million barrels per day (or whatever the current figure is) to 78 million barrels per day, it is quite possible we may never again reach 85...thus peak oil may be triggered by economic forces.


Lately, I have have been reading a lot about the growth and development in China and India. China is seeing 9.5% growth with no end in sight. I am beginning to believe that demand destruction will not exceed demand.

In other words, due to the growth of over 2 billion people in Asia, there will always be a net increase in the consumption of energy, even in the face of a global recession. I am working on a thread on it.

Take Shanghai, for instance: over 5,000 buildings over 20 stories with more on the way. NYC only has 1,500. China projected to have more cars than the US by 2015.

As to the question of the date of peak, by 2010 as has been projected for years.
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 26 Oct 2005, 11:23:08

Nobody can accurately predict when we will pass the peak in global oil production. We can make educated guesses based on computer models, production profiles and the exploration record. But they are guesses, and any reputable scientist would qualify them with phrases such as, “it appears that,” or “our model indicates,” or better yet “there is an 80% chance that….” Anyone who tries to tell you that we are passing peak production right now is not a scientist, but a soothsayer.

The reason for this is that the actual peak of production can only be determined with hindsight. You must be able to compare data for several years before you can determine whether production is really declining, and whether that decline is a temporary phenomena. This cannot be seen clearly with a year to year comparison. You need several years of production data to see the overall trend. If production is down for two straight years, then the probability that oil is past peak production becomes much more likely. And if the pattern continues downward for three or four years, then you can say with growing certainly that production peaked three or four years ago.

This being said, it does not appear that global oil production has passed its peak yet, though it is drawing near. How can this be when oil prices are shooting up to record highs? Prices are not a good indication of production; they are subject to speculation, and any number of other influences. Then what is happening right now?


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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 10 Feb 2018, 09:41:45

Place your bets; PLACE your bets!
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sat 10 Feb 2018, 17:31:42

Define "Oil", then define "Oil Peak", and I'll be glad to bet.

Once upon a time, I thought I understood both terms. Now the more I learn about the subject, the less certain I am.
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby ralfy » Sat 10 Feb 2018, 17:35:55

Around four decades ago unless it went up after 2013.
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Robert Rapier: Peak Oil In Four Years?

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 22 Feb 2018, 23:10:01

Between 2010 and 2015, annual oil production in the U.S. grew by four million barrels per day (BPD). Production dipped in 2016, but then U.S. crude oil production again rose by 1.2 million BPD between January and December 2017, to levels that haven't been seen since the early 1970s. The surge in production is a result of growth in tight oil (more commonly known as shale oil). Many, including myself, never imagined that oil production could grow enough to threaten the U.S. oil production peak from 1970. But that looks inevitable at this point. This production increase raises the question: Just how much will U.S. tight oil production increase before it peaks and begins to decline? Another million BPD? Three million BPD? The Energy Information Administration's latest Annual Energy Outlook (with projections to 2050) attempts to answer this question, modeling several scenarios for future oil


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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby Darian S » Fri 23 Feb 2018, 16:32:36

Say U.S could double its current output. IF it is mostly tight oil won't most of this new oil drop to around 10% production within years?

What caused the shale revolution, why didn't it start earlier? Was there some revolutionary technological advance that allowed it? Or was it easily possible in prior decades but was not done so because it wasn't that economical nor long lasting? Perhaps a sufficient drop in U.S production finally justified it as a last hurrah.
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sat 24 Feb 2018, 07:30:10

All of the above.
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 24 Feb 2018, 22:09:51

Darian S wrote:What caused the shale revolution, why didn't it start earlier?


In natural gas it did, with shale production dating back to 1825. Shale oil was being produced by the 1880's, in both Ohio and West Virginia.

The recent surge is more of an intensification of something already known about, and previously produced in naturally fractured sweet spots. Devonian shale development in OH,PA, WA for example, the Marcellus being probably the 3rd, maybe even 4th burst of production from that rock.

Peak oilers don't tell you any of this because it doesn't help their advocacy of doom tomorrow.

Darian S wrote:Was there some revolutionary technological advance that allowed it?


In 1825 it was drilling a hole into it. In the later 1800's it was deeper drilling, wire rope being one of the main innovations that allowed cable tool rigs to go deeper. Again, peakers don't want to discuss any of this, because it doesn't allow doom tomorrow afternoon. Plus, they are generally ignorant of any history of the industry because..well...they prefer that state, having no desire to understand the issue before turning it todays rapture scenario.
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby spike » Sun 25 Feb 2018, 06:12:39

I would recall the NETL report that Robert Hirsch co-authored, to be found here:
https://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/o ... g_NETL.pdf
He has a table of predictions of peak. Most are now past.
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby ralfy » Sun 25 Feb 2018, 10:49:31

Production per capita is more logical.
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby tita » Sun 25 Feb 2018, 12:57:35

spike wrote:I would recall the NETL report that Robert Hirsch co-authored, to be found here:
https://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/o ... g_NETL.pdf
He has a table of predictions of peak. Most are now past.

Sure... But I think this report, along with "peak oil" narrative becoming a mainstream subject at that time, had consequences for both supply/consumption and the oil prices.

- Oil prices stayed quite high until 2014. There was probably some speculation related to the imminence of an oil peak outside market fundamentals.
- ICE efficiency increased. Although many factors are involved (GW, price of gas, laws on clean air), the mpg became an argument for car dealers.
- LTO development may have been helped by the prospects of a tighter oil market. Of course, the price was the main catalyst. But a long-term perspective of high oil prices fueled by the idea peak oil may have had some effects on the investments and the frenzy of oil drillings.

We are now in the opposite situation. Peak oil demand narrative replaced the scarcity narrative of the past decade in the mainstream medias. A story of declining oil consumption that call for lower oil prices, which push the consequences I listed here in the opposite direction.

This is nothing new if we look at history. Booms and busts are part of the economic cycle of oil, and the importance of oil in the economy always raise concerns when things change.

As the last bust appears to be behind, then comes the question of the next boom... And maybe the peak oil supply concerns.
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 25 Feb 2018, 13:05:45

ralfy wrote:Production per capita is more logical.

No, it just fits your meme of doom.

Energy intensity per dollar of GDP is dropping significantly and predicted to continue falling for decades. Thus, lower production per capita is not automatically some huge problem.

Now, would things be better in general if BAU growth including massive population didn't occur? Sure. But that's not an oil problem, that's a human nature problem.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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